The Great Unwashed

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About The Great Unwashed

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    Lich-King of Oklahoma
  • Birthday 07/02/1978

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    Reading, tabletop gaming, quality beers.

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  1. Now, now. I hardly think that discussions of seeds sprouting is germane to the topic at hand.
  2. Down 737 now.
  3. Oh yeah, I mean, the rational part of my brain agrees with you...mostly. I know a lot of my fear comes from how badly I was shellacked during the Great Recession and for years after. I didn't just start saving recently, but I am behind the curve somewhat due to my circumstances of having to climb out of the incredibly deep hole the Recession left me in. I think I'm fairly well diversified, with a mix of traditional IRA, Roth IRA and traditional 401k portfolios. My retirement strategy is moderately aggressive, since I have about 25-30 years left until retirement, with my IRAs being a bit more conservative, holding a moderately higher ratio of bonds to mutual funds split. I'm more aggressive with the 401k, since I'm taking advantage of my employer match and rationally, I know that measured over the next few decades, I can reasonably expect a ROI of 6-8%. However, I can't shake this feeling that we're heading for a recession, and that it will be a bad one, since the means by which we alleviate the severity of a recession won't be as effective. The first year of Obama's presidency we ran deficits around $1.4 trillion with the unemployment rate over 10% and the FED cut interest rates to 0%. But now, we will soon be running trillion dollar deficits as a matter of course, with the unemployment rate at 4% and already low interest rates. I even wrote a post either here or on another site during the 2016 election where I speculated on whether it may be better for Democrats to lose the 2016 presidential election, because we'd almost certainly have a recession between 2016 and 2020, it would be a really bad one, and that whichever party was in power when that happened would end up getting trounced in the 2020 elections. Like I said, I don't have a lot of rational thought or evidence to back that up, but running massive deficits during good times is going to make it much harder to fix things when the bad times come around.
  4. The DOW and S&P500 are both down nearly 3% so far today. I've been going back and forth with my financial planner overseeing my retirement accounts since before the market went gangbusters in January and he keeps talking me off the ledge, but I'm becoming more and more convinced we're heading for a severe economic downturn within the next year or 18 months. Of course, I've been Chicken Little-ing it since I'm basically a child of the Great Recession: graduated from college, worked for a year and a half and then lost everything when the economy tanked and have spent the last decade crawling out of that hole. So yeah, just getting those fears off my chest...and hoping that I'll actually have the opportunity to retire someday.
  5. I think either Mississippi or South Dakota is number 50 in teachers' salaries. And the not raising taxes in 20 years thing is not entirely accurate. The legislature has raised taxes on things like "sin" taxes (cigarettes and booze), sales taxes and user fees like for hotels and motels. But, for stuff like income taxes, or production taxes for oil and gas, this is accurate, because of a 1992 referendum that required a supermajority of 75% to raise those kinds of taxes. Coincidentally enough, that referendum didn't also require a 75% supermajority to CUT taxes, so the legislature has been happily hacking away at state income taxes and production taxes for years now.
  6. Schools closed in Oklahoma and Kentucky as teachers go on strike. It will be interesting to see what happens. Here in Oklahoma, teachers are demanding a $10,000 pay raise for teachers and a $5,000 raise for support staff over the next 3 years, along with $200 million in education funding. The legislature passed a bill last week giving a $6,100 raise to teachers, a $1,250 raise to support staff and $50 million for education funding, but approved an amendment repealing a key provision for funding the increases by doing away with a raise in hotel and motel taxes. Then they promptly went into recess, so if this strike continues keeps momentum going, Fallin will have to call an emergency session to further address their concerns.
  7. I mostly agree with your point here, but (without intending to re-litigate the 2016 elections yet again) I think there's a valid counterpoint to be made that, while those are in fact bigger issues, none of them are issues over which Democrats have direct control, or even over which they have more than the smallest bit of influence. The Democratic Patry does have some indirect control, and certainly has a great deal of influence, over who both the rank-and-file voters and the big-wigs choose to represent them in an election year. My personal belief is that Clinton would have gotten creamed in the general by any of the other serious Republican contenders for the nomination, with perhaps the exception of Cruz. I think we're actually very lucky that Trump won the nomination, because I think anyone else would have had longer coattails downballot. So, going forward, Democrats need to exercise influence over those areas they are able to influence, and just roll with those other areas over which they don't have control.
  8. This morning, Trump threatened to veto the omnibus spending bill just passed by Congress after indications from the White House last night that he'd sign it. Most Congress-critters have already left Washington for recess, so if he follows through with his threat, we will definitely be looking at a multi-day shutdown for at least as long as it takes to corral members of Congress to come back to Washington and re-negotiate an amended bill. The way Trump has been pushing back against the "adults-in-the-room", or ASITRS as I like to call them, I wouldn't be surprised if he actually follows through with his threat.
  9. I'm of the opposite viewpoint. If I ever had sex with Trump, I'd be wanting HIM to sign a NDA so no one else ever knew my shame.
  10. Posted this in the RIP thread in Entertainment, but re-posting here. Compilation of some of his best pop-culture moments.
  11. Great tribute to the effect Hawking had on pop-culture. If you haven't seen his epic takedown of John Oliver on Last Week Tonight, I highly recommend it.
  12. Lamb +4
  13. @Mexal and @Fragile Bird Thanks for the updates. Interesting he confirmed the accounts that he was fired by tweet. There were a lot of right-wing sites calling that fake news.
  14. Anyone watching Tillerson's presser? I'm at work and can't watch.
  15. So, basically what you're saying is that by the end of Trump's first term, the only people that will be left in the White House are Trump, Javanka, the Bobs, and a bunch of Miltons down in the WH basement complaining about their Swinglines and threatening to burn the place down? Right on!