The Drunkard

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  1. Pondering on the purpose of the "Three Sisters" Davos Chapter in Dance

    He wouldn't gain anything from killing Rickon whereas he stands to gain a lot from using him as a puppet raising him as a ward and serving as his regent, and throughout the books his focus has been gaining everything he could. He wanted to build a war fleet for the North and station it at White Harbor (and charge Winterfell for it), he charged Rodrik for the defensive upgrades he made to his city, he wanted to be in control of the North's new currency, and he had his soldiers fight Ramsay for control of the Hornwood lands. Rickon's just more of the same, an answer to Roose's control of 'Arya'/Jeyne that lets him rule over the other northern houses. I doubt he's planning to kill him or something that overtly sinister.
  2. A new framework for some of the HotU visions

    Google sunsets. They look red, orange and yellow, just as Stannis' sword is described.
  3. Aussies LXV - what choices have we?!

    It's a common expectation among all sorts of public servants that the appearance of being non-corrupt is just as important as being non-corrupt, because you're dealing with the public's trust and you can't function well without it, blah blah blah. I can't see why a similar thing shouldn't apply to politician's claiming expenses ("the appearance of not being a greedy cheat is just as important as not being a greedy cheat"), and if they were punished for not adhering to that I imagine it'd be easy to stop people claiming footy/opera/polo tickets and whatever else as expenses. That or lynchings.
  4. Everyone is a poor man's Stannis.
  5. Assuming TWOW is the second last book (if it's not, I give up on making any guesses) I expect the ending will be bleak on all fronts, ready for ADOS. At the Wall/North: my guess is that Stannis will win the Battles of Ice & Winterfell within the first 1/3 - 1/2 of the book, and the latter part has him trying to hold back the Others at the Wall with the armies of the north and mercenary reinforcements from Essos. He'll become increasingly desperate, burn Shireen, lose regardless, and the Others will overrun the Wall and have an open path into the lands to its south. It'll serve as something like a Worf Effect. The Others have so far driven the wildlings south and defeated 300 rangers, neither of which is very significant. By defeating Stannis - a great general in control of the Wall and commanding many thousands of soldiers - they'll establish themselves as being incredibly deadly, and now there'll be no one ready to stop them (who is capable of doing so). In the South: my guess is that Dany vs Aegon will be in full swing, Cersei will be clinging to power and Euron will be ascendant (maybe in control of a dragon?). Dorne will have thrown in with Aegon, and the Vale is probably involved in some sort of fuckery thanks to Littlefinger. In short, it will be completely unprepared to face the threat posed to their north. In ADOS: my guess is that Jon and Bran will be conducting some kind of holding action in the North while the southern players learn of what's happening. Dany will probably conquer the south, Euron will keep being Euron (maybe hitch himself to the Others?), Sansa might use her position to reroute the Vale forces into helping Jon. Regardless of the specifics I expect there'll still be infighting up until it's almost too late, as a whole book of people joining hands and patting each other on the backs while they fight zombies would be boring.
  6. Merchant Prince: If You Were One.

  7. An argument supporting Mance wrote the Pink Letter

    Mance only knows of there being 300 wildling warriors at the Wall, but assuming he guesses there are now 1000, that's still not going to help him. The Boltons have several thousand men inside Winterfell in addition to their northern subjects and Frey allies. A wildling army can't take on a southern army of equal size, let alone a southern army at least five times the size behind Winterfell's walls. Getting them to march south isn't a positive result for Mance as they'd just die, but it is a positive result for the Boltons for the same reason. As to the threats not matching Ramsay's MO, in addition to flaying he had Lady Hornwood starved, he's had women hunted down with his feral dogs and then slit their throats, he had Domeric poisoned, he assassinated several ironborn, he helps Theon kill the miller's sons and place their heads on spikes, he kills three northern noblemen when taking Winterfell and doesn't defile their corpses, he cut down and beheaded a peasant for calling him Lord Snow, he promised to feed Lady Dustin her own tits, he had a dude stripped, whipped and thrown off Winterfell's walls, and he promises to gut the Manderly and Frey men if they keep fighting. He's a multi-talented murderer, s it's not unbelievable at all that he'd behead his enemies that were defeated in battle, skin the captive spearwives and promise to carve out Jon's heart.
  8. Pondering on the purpose of the "Three Sisters" Davos Chapter in Dance

    The important things I picked out in that chapter were that: - Saan abandoned Stannis and is returning to piracy in the south, - Davos is still more comfortable as a smuggler than a King's Hand but, despite that, is fairly good at reading people and can be a convincing negotiator, - The loyalty of Godric (and, by implication, other lords in westeros) is up for grabs now that Tywin is dead and Lannister power not supreme, - White Harbor is very important, the "mouth" of the north, and it has apparently thrown in with the Lannisters, - Some random history things: Ned was there, Stannis hanged wreckers there, and the north and Vale used to fight over the Sisters and caused a lot of damage. Like you, beyond the historical parts, I don't see anything that isn't or couldn't be covered in his later chapters. I suspect it's just bloat (reading Davos II and III make me think they could've been combined, too).
  9. Stannis and Danerys <3

    He decided against doing that when he came North. The "cart before the horse" speech is him admitting that he got it wrong, and that he should be focusing on his duty (i.e. stopping the Others) before claiming his rights (i.e. the throne). Besides, conquering the entire south isn't something he can do in a hurry, it would take years.
  10. Stannis and Danerys <3

    It makes sense that Dany would invade there, but Stannis is going to be preoccupied. He can't send a fleet and thousands of men to retake it, and there's no way he spends time arranging marriage alliances with his enemies while trying to hold back the Others. The obsidian would be handy, but Skagos has large amounts of obsidian, and the Iron Bank money would attract sellers.
  11. Stannis wrote the Pink Letter

    A simple "Hey Jon, Ramsay has promised to flay your sister unless blah blah blah, come save her" is far more effective, and doesn't pose the risk of getting Melisandre or his family killed or captured. There's also no reason for Jon to march south other than blind rage (and Stannis knows Jon's not an idiot) as the author claims to have lost Arya, and also claims to have defeated Stannis' army, making a southward march pointless and hopeless. What I believe is a much better explanation is the following: - Stannis has access to the Karstark ravens that Tybald was using to keep Roose informed re: Stannis' march. Stannis knows this, and can now send letters to Winterfell containing false information. For example: news of his defeat and perhaps a heads-up that victorious Manderly forces are returning to Winterfell bearing his sword. - With Stannis dead, the only obstacles to Bolton domination are Jon, at the Wall, and Manderly, at Winterfell with a slashed neck being tended to by maesters working for Roose. Wyman can be easily disposed of, but Jon is thousands of miles away on the other side of a blizzard with a small army of wildlings and watchmen. - Therefore, it's perfectly in character for Roose to send Jon a letter that 1) exposes his crimes to the watchmen (i.e. that he apparently had a role in saving Mance, covering it up, and using him for personal reasons), 2) highlights the hopelessness of any resistance, 3) forces him to make a decision that either outs himself as an enemy (i.e. by refusing the demands) or turns any potential allies against him (i.e. by trying to turn over Stannis' family and ignoring Mance's plight), 4) shifts all responsibility to Ramsay. In the aftermath of a victory against Stannis, and with no way to easily reach the Wall, there's no better strategy for the Boltons than to send Castle Black a letter that divides Jon's powerbase and turns at least one segment of it against him. - Incidentally, Stannis no longer needs Jon. He wanted him when he initially arrived because he wanted to avoid a bloody scrap for the North. But he's involved in one now anyway, he's already won half the North, and the rest will fall into his lap should he crush the Boltons and take Winterfell. He sends Jeyne/'Arya' away because a Stark figurehead is no longer necessary for him to rally the northmen. That's misreading the passage. He identifies the Others as his ultimate goal. "Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne." Stannis pointed north. "There is where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight." He's not saying the throne is more important than the Others, but that his duty (the one he was born to fulfill) should come before his rights. "... it is important that the individual books refer to the civil wars, but the series title reminds us constantly that the real issue lies in the North beyond the Wall. Stannis becomes one of the few characters fully to understand that..." - GRRM And from GRRM, we know that Stannis understands that the Others are the "real issue", not a civil war for the IT.
  12. Aussies LXV - what choices have we?!

    Nah I won't be in Sydney, sorry.
  13. Stannis and Danerys <3

    Completely unlikely. In a world where the Others don't exist and Stannis conquers the North + takes the Manderly fleet + builds himself a sellsword army, all to conquer the south, it might make some sense for them to marry if you could (somehow) convince the two of them to do so. But Stannis won't be leaving the North until the Others are defeated or he is defeated fighting them, and Dany won't begin her invasion by landing in the North, so I think it's pretty unlikely that they'll even run into each other. At least until Dany has conquered the south or Stannis has been driven out of the north, but by that time there won't be much reason for a marriage.
  14. I imagine he'd want to continue the war, and the Tyrells would understandably not want to surrender to someone whose family they just killed. Robert and co. would probably win (seeing as they have the resources of the North, Riverlands, Crownlands, Stormlands, Vale and Westerlands at their disposal) and Mace would almost certainly face some disloyalty from his vassals. Things might change if Dorne jumps in on Mace's side, but given his attitude toward the Dornish I doubt it'd be an effective alliance.
  15. Theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at CB

    On revision this is pretty dumb on both their ends. For Jon, getting a second opinion from a magical prophet on who your enemies are can't hurt, and for Mel, if I was so keen to help someone survive I wouldn't have my warning be so easily brushed off.