bent branch

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  1. NOTHING gets an honorable mention as how Ned found out. Thus, no theory can meet the level of evidence you are demanding. And therefore, your standard for evidence is unreasonable. "I looked for you here, I looked for you there..." Remember this? Ned is saying that he was not expecting them to be with Lyanna. The war was over and everyone else had knelt. He thought he could just go pick up Lyanna. This means Ned did not think he needed to go in force. Maybe it is because people don't understand this they keep being surprised that Ned didn't take an army when Ned didn't think he needed an army. Argh, you said you understood the political situation, but then precede to make an argument showing absolutely no understanding of the political situation. Ned, and to some extent Robert, are really hating each other at this moment. The lords who are busy kneeling to Robert could potential flip and decide to back Tywin or someone else. In this environment of political instability, someone has a stick of political dynamite; they know where Lyanna is. They have five basic things they can do with this information: 1) They can keep the information to themselves and Lyanna either emerges or not on her own. This decision is the safest for this individual, but also leaves the individual no ability to influence the political changes happening. Also, if Lyanna remains mysteriously missing, Robert may delay making the marriage with Cersei, keeping things politically unstable longer. 2) They can slip the information to Robert publicly or 3) anonymously. If they reveal themselves while revealing the information to Robert, they could potentially use it to their political advantage while making at least one very powerful political enemy, Tywin. On the other hand, if they reveal the information anonymously they put a kink in the negotiations between Robert, Jon and Tywin. This would be a good choice if they wanted to kibosh the wedding to Cersei and alliance with Tywin. 4) They can slip the information to Ned publicly or 5) anonymously. If they reveal the information to Ned openly, they risk triggering all those paranoid reactions that you think Ned should have. The types of questions Ned could ask, "Why are you giving me this information?" "Who put you up to this?" "Are you trying to get me to commit treason against Robert?" Revealing themselves as the give the information to Ned is actually a more aggressive move. It is almost a demand that Ned do something about it. On the other hand, giving Ned the information anonymously means Ned can do whatever he wants with the information, whenever he is ready. Furthermore, if Ned destroys the note, not only is the person who sent the note safe from possible reprisals, Ned is also safe. What is the advantage to telling Ned instead of Robert? If Ned retrieves Lyanna (who never wanted to marry Robert) he is unlikely to agree to a marriage between the two because of the very public falling out between the two. Thus, by telling Ned, the marriage between Robert and Cersei is likely to move forward, stabilizing the country faster. So, I've just explained why who ever gave Ned the information might make one of the five basic choices. I also showed how giving the information to Ned probably had nothing to do with Lyanna being pregnant. Someone told. What I did was look at the possible individuals (a very, very short list) and picked the one I thought most likely. Varys didn't need to bring up Jon at all. He already had Sansa to threaten Ned with. I think the reason he mentioned Jon was to see how Ned would react. Ned didn't react, so Varys got no satisfaction from the experiment.
  2. Where did you get the idea that most disagree with it? I think that is just the crowd you run around with that disagrees with it. Seriously, most readers have no problem with R+L=J.
  3. I have argued for some time now that there is no difference between green dreams and the prophetic dreams of the Targaryens. If you look at the fan constructed definition of "dragon dreams" in the wiki, it is apparent that "dragon dreams" are only dreams of the Targaryens. When GRRM used the term "dragon dream" he literally meant a dream about a dragon. Anyhow, I don't see why the greenseers and COTF can't send dreams to anyone who is susceptible to them, Targaryen or no. And anyway, isn't the whole PTWP a prophecy about the coming battle for the dawn? Why wouldn't the greenseers and COTF be interested in the hero of this battle? The prophecy is obviously referring to a Targaryen who will come to the north to fight the battle of the dawn. To draw a line between fire and ice is really pointless in this instance, I think.
  4. I agree.
  5. I think you have your generations wrong. I think Jaehaerys and Duncan were brothers not father and son. As for the rest of it, I have always said that if all three heads need to be descendent from Aerys and Rhaella, then Aegon will be the son of Rhaegar, if not then it is probably Tyrion who is the third head.
  6. Basically, the objection is that we haven't been given a clue about what Varys knows. GRRM has stated that Varys knows too much, therefore he can't give Varys a POV. From this we can conclude that Varys knows all sorts of things that we don't know he knows. The only thing we can do is infer from the circumstances what Varys might know. If only direct evidence is going to be accepted about what Varys knows, then we can only conclude Varys knows nothing.
  7. I think it is safe to assume that everything we have been told about when, where and how Ashara died is highly suspect if not outright wrong. The story changes depending upon who tells it. I'm willing to bet they are all wrong. But even if one of the versions is correct, then there is not yet enough evidence to show who is right. However, since Barristan only worshiped Ashara from afar, I bet he doesn't really know what happened.
  8. I agree that Jon's role is in the north. Since that proposal letter was revealed, I've realized that Jon's parentage may be important only to him and/or the prophecy. I don't think the Iron Throne is going to be a part of his story. I have thought a lot about your comments and before I address them, I want to reiterate Ned's state of mind at the time. Ned was fresh off the Battle on the Trident. Robert had been injured and Ned rushed ahead of him to secure Kingslanding. Upon his arrival he saw Lannister banners flying over the city and Jaime on the throne. Once Robert arrived and the Targaryen children were placed before him (to Robert's pleasure), Ned had become so disgusted by it all his relationship with Robert was broken. If not for their shared grief over Lyanna, Robert and Ned's relationship would not have recovered. So far nothing I've said should raise any controversy. I'm only trying remind of the situation in KL. A piece of information that is noticeably absent is what Ned thought about where Lyanna might be. Therefore, we have no idea if he thought she might be in KL or if he thought she might be elsewhere. This is a piece of information which should be included in the story, but I think knowing this would tell the readers more about the situation than GRRM wants revealed at this point. Moving on to your objections, which I read as being: -Ned wouldn't trust the information from an anonymous letter. At this point Ned doesn't actually trust Robert. Robert is showing a side that Ned doesn't really recognize or like. The old regime has fallen and the new regime is being hammered out. In this roiling mass of shifting loyalties Ned receives a note, "If you wish to find your sister, go to the northernmost watchtower of Prince's Pass." While these may not be the exact words, the meaning will be very similar. It is a bare bones message delivered in a manner that does not draw attention to the sender. Notice the only information in the message is sister and location. Also, Ned doesn't rush over there to find Lyanna, he waits until the last issues of the war have been resolved (basically doing what we see Jaime doing in AFFC). Finally, Ned has no other clues so why not check it out? -Taking only six people with him. I think the novels themselves address this issue fully. Ned didn't think he would encounter any opposition to retrieving Lyanna. -Ned might think the anonymous letter writer is malevolent. Why would he when the letter writer helped him find Lyanna? -Ned might think the letter writer knows of Jon's existence and means Jon harm. The letter gives no hint of Lyanna being pregnant, so what evidence is there that the letter writer knew anything more than Lyanna's location. And again, why would Ned think the letter writer was malevolent? Ned would see this person as helping. -Varys doesn't reveal that he knows Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. In the scene with Varys and Ned in the dungeon, it seems that Varys may be trying to find out about Jon without giving away anything of what he knows. At least, that is how it seems to me. So I speculate that Varys either knows or suspects that Jon is really the son of Rhaegar and Elia. Well, I guess GRRM has revealed as much as he wants to on this issue so far. This is what these discussions often boil down to, one person presenting a scenario and the other person saying, "I want to see this EXACT type of evidence before I'll believe it." That's fine. You know best for you.
  9. I would agree some people over analyze. A lot.
  10. Actually, I think there was an inner circle of people who knew where Rhaegar and Lyanna were all along. I suspect that Lyanna had originally been taken as a hostage against the Starks. If this is right, then Varys would have known where they were from the beginning.
  11. When I compare how I think Ned was told to Kevan in the ADWD epilogue, I mean anonymously. I think Ned was given a written note from one of Varys' little birds. Ned may never think on who told him where Lyanna was because he didn't know where the information came from.
  12. My vote is with Bran. He was the first chapter.
  13. Did you see the post this was in response to?
  14. Someone definitely told Ned where to find Lyanna and that person was Varys. I have no doubt that Varys had a note slipped to Ned in a manner similar to the way the message was slipped to Kevan in the Epilogue of ADWD. This is the reason I believe Varys either does know or has a strong suspicion that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. I don't believe for a moment that no one in KL knew where Rhaegar and Lyanna were. I just think it was known by very few people where they were. I just try to correct this incorrect idea about the ToJ, because if you only read about it, it's location can seem really mysterious. I only realized where it was after looking at the maps from that group of maps released a number of years ago.
  15. Somehow I missed this when I was first reading the thread and then I saw it quoted in other people's responses and had to respond myself to it. For some reason people think this is true, but the ToJ is actually easily found and hard to miss. There are two routes through the mountains into Dorne. One of these two routes is the Bone Way, which Summerhall stood at it's northern entrance. The second route is the Prince's Pass. At the entrance of the Prince's Pass was a watchtower that had been manned to provide early warning of a possible attack from the Reach in the period before Dorne joining the rest of the Westeros. This watchtower was immediately visible to anyone approaching the Prince's Pass and it had to be passed by anyone entering Dorne. Rhaegar had renamed this watchtower ToJ because of his time there with Lyanna. ETA: The ToJ was just barely over the border into Dorne.