Roose Boltons Pet Leech

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About Roose Boltons Pet Leech

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    Blood-sucking Aristocrat
  • Birthday 12/15/1982

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    Dunedin, New Zealand

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  1. Yay. Finished off another short story, this time horror.
  2. Yay! Got a short story accepted by Bards and Sages Quarterly: The story, entitled The Happiest Man Alive* will feature in their October 2017 edition. *Literally true, as far as the main character goes, but incredibly misleading.
  3. Party like it's 1974! A complicating factor is the FTPA (which is looking really stupid now) - the Tories are going to have to suffer through ever more Jim Callaghanesque parliamentary embarrassments until a no confidence vote puts them out of their misery.
  4. Also, after 2015, Labour needed a 8.75% uniform swing for a majority (i.e. the party was at the bottom of an impossibly deep well). Now it's the far more feasible 3.6%* - Corbyn's most important achievement wasn't simply gaining seats, it was slashing Tory majorities in seats Labour needs. *It's actually even closer if Scottish Labour continues its renaissance. If you give Labour the Labour/SNP seats up until Dundee East (so a hypothetical 8% SNP to Labour swing, based off a Labour Government actually looking viable again), Labour only needs a 2.4% swing in the rest of the UK for a majority, up until Worcester.
  5. I'm being featured as /r/Fantasy Writer of the Day:
  6. It's a crime here (separate from murder):
  7. I think losing Clegg goes a long way to exorcising the latter demons though.
  8. I suppose they could abstain instead...
  9. True, but then the Tories won't start the next election 25% in front. Meanwhile, Labour get to portray Theresa May as another Ted Heath in the way that Corbyn used to get portrayed as another Michael Foot.
  10. Oh good grief. "Labour overspending" had absolutely nothing to do with the Global Financial Crisis. It was thirty years' worth of economic deregulation and neoliberalism. When the economy collapses, as it did during the GFC, the Government essentially has to run massive deficits - which in the case of the UK, it could afford to do so because the UK has its own currency (and check the bond markets from 2008-2010 - the markets were basically begging for more borrowing). Austerity was nothing more than sadism. Edit - see the UK's historical debt level graph:
  11. I really doubt the DUP are going to enforce their unique brand of loopiness on the rest of the UK (Ruth Davidson has got an assurance from May on gay rights). What this deal will mean is just lots and lots of pork-barrel spending on Northern Ireland*, and probably not much in the way of social policy being brought to a vote, because even May isn't that stupid. You can start worrying if the Queen's Speech calls the Pope the Antichrist or something. *There's a joke going round about Protestant Pork for A Protestant People.
  12. No, she really didn't. She called the election with a 20+% margin, and ended up with a 2.4% margin - down from the 6.5% David Cameron managed last time. The reason she lost seats wasn't the villainy of FPP, but because Labour's increase in vote share was significantly greater than hers. (And if we're talking proportional representation, the German/NZ system has rare cases of overhang, where a party wins more electoral districts than its vote share entitles it to).
  13. Oh, and full credit to a certain poster who suggested this result on 19th April:
  14. Without Sinn Fein it's 328-314. With Sinn Fein it's 328-321. One has small margin for error - the other has nearly none. With reference to the GFA, there's the loophole that (so far as I know) this isn't a formal coalition - it's confidence and supply, so the DUP are supporting a minority Westminster Government without actually being part of it.
  15. In some areas it did. The five Tory gains from Labour tend to follow the same pattern: 2005: safe Labour 2010: big swing from Labour to Liberal Democrats 2015: Labour holds steady, Liberal Democrats crash, UKIP soars 2017: Labour gains slightly, UKIP crashes, Tories soar and win the seat. To me, it seems like these five were "deferred" Labour losses from 2010, where the protest vote found a couple of homes before going Tory. May gunning for seats where UKIP were strong wasn't silly. I mean, we are talking an election where Kensington and Canterbury went Labour, and Mansfield and North-East Derbyshire went Tory. Dennis Skinner's majority got halved. In some ways, these seats show what a 2017 Tory landslide would have looked like, had it not been thwarted by the campaign.