Chaircat Meow

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About Chaircat Meow

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    70% wrong 30% right
  • Birthday 08/18/1989

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  1. Oh well, maybe Nicola Sturgeon will bail us out again then.
  2. v. amusing.
  3. That did us no good anyway. If anything that helped Corbyn because it lulled us into a false sense of security. Moreover, May won't be the PM when the next election takes place. Labour will likely have to ready the attack lines for Boris or Davis.
  4. Labour can't rely on us trying to shovel shit down the throats of our core voters next time though.
  5. No. Who is Hum?
  6. Tbf your opinion can be safely ignored in other circumstances too, i.e. if you at a tribal voter who never switches because of what the parties do.
  7. True, didn't phrase that well. It seemed to me the UKIP collapse was really not benefiting us in the way we hoped. In seats where UKIP had done well in 2015 their collapse did not seem to give us a corresponding increase in votes while Labour were picking up more new votes than we were. Of course, Labour could have got those votes from elsewhere and not from the collapsing UKIP vote, but I think it is likely there was a lot more UKIP-Lab switching than we all thought probable (which is not to say I think Labour got anywhere near the number of ex-UKIP vote we did).
  8. I, and most Tories who thought we'd increase our majority agreed with this analysis. We didn't think UKIP voters would go back to Labour, often, as you say, having left many years before. But throughout the night we saw big increases in Labour's votes in seats where UKIP's vote collapsed. The Tories were not picking up enough of those lost UKIP votes, so some presumably did go to Corbyn. I don't doubt that we still gobbled up a majority of the UKIP vote, but it looks like rather more than 5-6% went to Labour. Can't see the graph.
  9. So, it looks to me like a couple of things explain this epic fuckfest. 1. Young voters turning out for Corbyn. 18-24s, and many among us slightly older millennials were attracted to Corbyn's 'idealism,' 'authenticity' and spending promises, and maybe were also galvanized to vote by shock at Brexit. We all knew something like this could happen, but predictions of high youth turnout had been wrong before. 2. Snowball effect. As Corbyn surged people who wrote him off for being useless started to see him a new light. I suspect this explains the Scottish result in particular but it happened across the country. In other words, some of his unpopularity was founded on looking like a loser, and when he didn't any longe he picked up more votes. 3. UKIP voters. The % of UKIP voters who would ditch the party for the Tories was overestimated, and a substantial number actually went back to Labour. For those who understand the motives of UKIP voters, and the attitudes of Corbyn, this looks very bizarre, but tribal affinity to Labour is still strong and these voters heard what they wanted to hear when Corbyn spoke about immigration and Brexit. I suspect we'll find more labour voters made up their minds late, while the Tory vote was locked in early. The Tories should be thanking Ruth Davidson MSP on bended knees too, because if we hadn't defeated the SNP in some of their traditional heartlands we could really be looking at the coalition of chaos right now. England actually voted for a Lab-SNP pact, or the strong possibility of one anyway. Very odd indeed.
  10. The Fat Man has fallen. The SNP have lost Gordon to the Scottish Conservatives.
  11. The candidates are really awesome in Maidenhead. There is a dude in a kind of Elmo suit.
  12. Lord Buckethead ...
  13. Joy. George Kerevan has lost his seat.
  14. Oooh, got to love that result in Glasgow North East.
  15. Can we agree to take this stuff in turns?