Kalbear

Members
  • Content count

    44,230
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Kalbear

  • Rank
    57 Warning Points
  • Birthday 10/26/1974

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://addictedtoquack.com

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    The worst BwB meetup area EVER

Recent Profile Visitors

16,181 profile views
  1. The new Justice League trailer

    Jason Momoa looks like he's having such a blast in this role.
  2. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    Politically it would have been a lot more beneficial for the vote to have been held, because the attack ads are absurdly effective on it. They're simple to understand, obviously painful, and the bill had a 17% approval rate. Even if it didn't pass the senate, it would have been an effective way to pin them. This isn't as effective at getting elections, but it may be more effective at deadlocking any legislation for a while. I'm still more concerned with the executive power by itself. The EPA dying, the education department dying, massive deportations, massive weakening of intelligence - all of these things can still happen - but things like absurdly bad budgets and the like have much less of a shot now.
  3. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    There is one thing they stand for - winning. Losers get chucked.
  4. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    Also, losing really hurts his image as the maverick coming into politics and being able to change up everything. A lot of his supporters didn't WANT him to change this, mind you, but losing puts a big chink in that armor. I don't think it'll hurt him absurdly; he'll blame democrats and Ryan and claim this was his plan all along, and move on to things he cares about more like taxes and jobs and immigration. But for a lot of people it'll be hard to directly fight the idea that yesterday he was telling everyone to vote on it and how great it was - and today it failed to even come to a vote.
  5. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    Mostly because of their promises, I think. It also makes the next set of tax cuts a lot easier to do. Ryan basically had his plan of doing this first, then taxes second, and told Trump this was the only way to do it and you had to do the health stuff first. Ryan was lying, but Trump bought it (you can see this in some of his tweets and comments). The trickle down bullshit also is going to be a lot more complex than simply repealing certain things - or at least that's what people think. They haven't started working on those tax plans either, and they'll still need to figure out how to balance costs out. With the 'savings' from the health repeal they'd have more latitude. They won't have that now. Essentially all their plans revolve around being able to do things with zero input or consideration from Democrats. That is their governing style, now.
  6. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    I think the thing that is missing is the explanation behind the urgency of the vote. A lot of people were confused why this was being rushed through with so little vetting and analysis to the point where people today were going to be voting on a version of the bill that almost no one had read. As an example, a late change would have caused 7 million veterans to lose their credits for healthcare due to a mistake. Why are they going so fast on this? Well, because of reconciliation. They can only do one reconciliation per fiscal year, and that deadline ends in June. In order to get that done they have to pass a bill in the House, get it through in the senate, and then pass that - which takes a lot of time. They really had to get this done even earlier this year in order for it to work, but this was basically about as late as they could do as they still have to deal with the budget ceiling this fiscal year. And they want to do it this year, because next year they want to use reconciliation to pass their tax reform, and that's a far bigger priority for them. So basically it was now or never for repeal, and they wanted to at least have the option to say they tried.
  7. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    It's also a much harder line to sell when you control the house, the senate, and the judiciary. How precisely did the Democrats stop the vote from even taking place? When you sell people on the expectation that you can get things done, and they don't happen, they don't care nearly as much about the why. Same was true with Obama and the ACA, where a lot of dems were disappointed in the final result. Didn't matter there were a lot of good reasons why it happened, they just cared that Obama didn't get it done.
  8. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    Democrats being able to make some deals to strengthen parts of it would be a potential winner, depending on if they can find cause with moderate republicans who are worried about losing their seats. They can vote to kill the individual mandate (which is basically dead anyway, as the IRS isn't enforcing it) while increasing the medicaid enrollment to 200% of poverty - that would be hugely popular and not particularly complex, and would likely even get 60 votes in the senate. I doubt it'll happen, but it is the sort of thing that Trump might consider given that he has basically no ideology or particular dog in this fight.
  9. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    If the vote is held, it rests very squarely on Ryan pushing a vote that he knew wasn't going to pass. There's a saying about lawyers where you shouldn't ask any question you don't know the answer to - same applies to votes and politics. If the vote isn't held, there's blame aplenty to go around. The Freedom Caucus already is blaming Trump for some of this, and that helps with cover. Moderate republicans can blame the accelerated schedule, which is also on Trump. Trump saying he wants to put together a shit list doesn't help that either, mind you, nor do his threats. While Ryan will get a hit there a lot of congress will back him, saying that he made the most of a bad situation, and I bet a lot will ally with him against Trump. I've heard there are already 34 confirmed no votes - 2 more during the Spicer briefing. It's looking more and more like it's dead.
  10. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    Because it isn't Trump's bill, it's Ryan's. And as speaker, he can choose to kill these things. Trump doesn't have the power here one way or another. He can't call for a vote and he can't call for a bill to exist. It is not Ryan's job to be the spokesperson for the Trump presidency or his laws.
  11. US Politics: Kill (the) Bill

    I'm becoming more and more convinced Ryan will simply not call for a vote. He'd rather take the heat from Trump than congress, and he'd rather not have the attack ads run en masse for this. He can then spin it however he wants - say Trump killed it (is Trump believable enough to say he didn't?), or say Trump didn't give enough support, etc. It's basically Trump's playbook thrown back at him.
  12. US Politics: Ask Fox News

    Also this
  13. US Politics: Ask Fox News

    I think that Trump is going to want a vote, stupidly, so he can move on to other priorities. Possibly the tax reconciliation, though I don't see how that gets close to being done in time for this FY at this point either.
  14. US Politics: Ask Fox News

    And this is why it is essential for everyone to brand it as TrumpCare.