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About Kalbear

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    Liquor in the growler
  • Birthday 10/26/1974

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  1. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    Yeah, so here's the first attack against Trump via Clinton - and it's entirely made up of Republican quotes.
  2. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    Okay - she's released all the ones that I guess she has. As stated before, it would have been better of her to simply have deleted all of them like Bush did and then said 'my bad'.
  3. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    I kind of agree, but again - Clinton's ads and social media and focus have been 100% on Trump. While Sanders is continuing to attack her, she continues to completely ignore him. Now that he's been given the nominee status this will only increase. And there's really nothing that Sanders can do at this point to win. Point in fact, Clinton campaigning on what a good candidate she is to beat Trump probably is just as effective in getting people to vote for her as going against Sanders and forces Sanders to essentially ignore his own platform and go on the 'see, I can ALSO beat Trump!' thing, which weakens his attacks. I don't think that it's going to be so bad. Something else I've noticed is that Trump has done better since he's been a lot quieter. He's had fewer rallies and public speaking events, he's had no debates, he's even had a teleprompter speech. That's going to change here soon, especially with the convention. And that's when he's likely going to be most vulnerable. Clinton had a field day with the 'woman card' thing a week ago and raised more money than Sanders on a monthly basis for the first time this campaign; more things like that should be in the future.
  4. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    How so? She didn't release them right away, but she's released basically all of them at this point. But again, so what? The idea that the attack will need to be super powerful seems odd. You get that there is no way to insulate Clinton from all the attacks that are about to come out, right? That Trump is going to not go with one specific one or even one attack ad - he's going to throw everything at her. I think you're right - it makes the attack more potent. I just think that it doesn't matter when going up against Trump.
  5. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    Apparently Ben Carson is going to head trumps vp candidate committee. ...
  6. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    Sure, and that's fair. But I don't think that the transcripts are going to make that big of a difference. If she releases them, he's still going to go full attack mode on her in exactly the same way Sanders has and then some. It won't defuse that attack any more than releasing the birth certificate defused Trump about Obama being a secret muslim and not a real US citizen. It also probably won't matter, one way or another. Romney ran an election that got a lot of voters out to vote against Obama - and he still failed. He even was able to depress the vote of the democrats some, and it still failed. Why? Because the demographics are still absurdly strong for a Democrat in the presidency, and Trump is still absolutely loathed by Republicans. What Trump needs to do is win even more white voters than Romney did while also depressing the hell out of the nonwhite voters, and the nonwhite voters are by all accounts turning out as much or even more than they did in 2008. Latino registration, for instance, is on a crazy upswing now, and that's all thanks to Trump. There are lots of ways that Trump can win, but I'm becoming more and more convinced that none of them have to do with things like political steps or debate performance. They have to do with Trump somehow making everyone forget that two months ago he was insulting people's wives and talking about the size of his dick and getting all the republican voters and most of the undecideds in battleground states that look super encouraging for Democratic presidential candidates, and they have to do with Clinton not making monumental personal gaffes that she has unfortunately often done.
  7. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    But...she did release the emails, and she did so pretty much as fast as she was legally able to. If she had done it faster then people would have (rightfully) chided her for releasing secret mail to the public. I doubt it'll be that effective. Effective for whom? Trump can try and make that attack, but so what? If she does release them he'll just say that she's a puppet anyway. He'll say that regardless. Another way to say it is this: Clinton releasing or not releasing those transcripts doesn't change that Trump attack one bit. Not even for a second. He'll still call her dishonest, just like he has basically every single other opponent he has had. He'll still call her opaque. He'll still say that she was bought and paid for. None of this changes. Nothing at all.
  8. Bakker XLIV: The Goddess of Negative Theology

    Ya know, I just don't care that much. It's a spoiler and everyone's totally cool with it. Party on.
  9. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    Clinton doesn't really have to spend any resources or time fighting Sanders at this point. And, point of fact, she's not. She spent zero dollars in Indiana. Instead of campaigning in upcoming primaries, she's in Ohio. Her tweets and social media don't mention Sanders at all, and she has been spending the entire last two weeks attacking Trump or pulling herself up. Her lead is high enough and people know about her enough that she doesn't need to campaign at this point. If Sanders would be convinced of a clinching lead - like Clinton was with Obama - then she might have something to campaign for. But she doesn't. She'll get enough votes in California and along the way to have a majority, Sanders has doubled and tripled down on staying in the race, so she really has nothing to do right now. I suspect she'll get some stuff going in California, but probably not a huge deal.
  10. Bakker XLIV: The Goddess of Negative Theology

    Because demanding something happens is not the same thing as it happening. As an example, Robb planning on going to Moat Cailin vs. Robb going to Moat Cailin.
  11. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    That would kind of make sense, but it's Clinton. Clinton cannot trust the media any more. She has found that her best defense is to simply stall for as long as possible, because no matter what they are going to attack her - so why give them any actual substantive fuel? I'm not saying that this is the correct course of action, but it's what is in Clinton's mindset. Clinton doesn't need to release anything, it almost certainly doesn't have anything particularly damning, but she's not going to take a risk and she's not going to give people information.
  12. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    After Indiana, Sanders needs demographic targets +20 in order to get a pledged majority. This isn't that surprising or even that special, but it shows exactly how insane his numbers really are. He needs to win California 2-1, he needs to win ND 82-18, that sort of thing.
  13. US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world

    Indiana's numbers: Demographics: Clinton +6 Polls: Clinton +4 to Clinton +10 538 forecast: Clinton +8(Polls+ Clinton +10 Sanders target to stay on track: Sanders +30 I think Clinton will win barely, but will win.
  14. Bakker XLIV: The Goddess of Negative Theology

    That's not a good sign either.