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About GallowsKnight

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  1. Very true, the Clansmen taking out the scouts makes the surprise part that smallest part more believable. I still have issues with the timing. Your suggestion that Tywin was hiding waiting for the right moment letting Tyrion fight Stannis, while sounding like a very Tywin like thing to do, starts to make less sense if you think about it. There's no way killing some scouts lets you hide an army of 80,000 men from being detected for more than a little time. It's just too huge. Stannis was camped there for 2 weeks awaiting his ships to arrive. It's not like the show where Stannis arrives and immediately attacks. But as I said before it was necessary for the plot to advance.
  2. I don't know if there is a source (I can't remember what the WOIAF says about it). It's something that comes up with a generally anti-Stannis vibe. Even if he had naval superiority, I tend to think Fair Isle is regarded so well in universal because of how he managed to so resoundingly beat the Iron Fleet. Taking probably very few causalities and letting no Ironborn ships escape. It established complete naval superiority to the Crown and allowed them to capture each Island.
  3. I agree with a lot of the economic suggestions. For military might, the building blocks of a royal army and navy would be the existing goldcloaks and...royal navy. I'd expand the goldcloak's number's steadily under the guise of simply better protecting Kingslanding. For example recruiting and equipting another 500 men a year (or whatever is achievable). I'd rotate men between patrolling/guard duty to actively drilling with pike and crossbow. So when there's 2500, each man spends 1 in 5 days drilling, then as that increases they spend more time drilling, example 4000 men, alternating between drilling for a week and patrolling for a week. I'd recruit hedge knights and second sons to form an officer corps. Once the kingslanding garrison swells. I'd start expanding with garrisons within the Crownlands. Then along the King's road and at crossroads and bridges. I'd establish Royal messengers with changes of horses, as well as the semaphore system mentioned above. I'd start putting very small groups in big cities to protect royal tax collectors, then slowly expand their role in assisting the local lords and eventually equal or surpassing their city watch. Less savvy lords might appreciate having to pay for less city-watch. With the navy I'd start training more sailors and rotating them with the ships while under pay. Sailors are cheaper to equip and so I could have a large reserve of them. When they aren't on ships I'd drill them for fighting and using crossbows, so my oarsmen/sailors are more effective than other fleets, able to support marines. I'd start building slowly as I can afford more ships and then start sending them to escort the tax collectors I mentioned back and forth with the taxes. In time I'd slowly build garrison of ships in those cities to patrol and enforce the Kings law. All of this would be a slow generational creeps. But with the ultimate goal of having men I can draw from in most regions to form an army to put down rebels in other regions.
  4. It's not the distance from the Trident to the Blackwater, that's achievable it's the perfect eleventh hour timing to hit Stannis whose army is split on two banks and committed by complete surprise Had Stannis' boats been delayed by another day, Stannis would have a full army in the field intact and be able to give battle under better conditions or withdraw. Or if they arrive a day late, Stannis would have his men behind the walls of Kingslanding making it harder to outright surprise them. And it has been raised that had the storms not delayed Stannis he would have 2 weeks earlier taken it. But that's Sifth's point. You can't apply realism to magic inside the universe, but you can to conventional/non-magical things.
  5. I agree. I believe there was probably reasons for delay. He might not have had enough strength to create an animated shadow immediately after the one that kills Renly. Then he felt he couldn't leave Storm's End behind held by a hostile force for the same reason Renly felt he couldn't ignore Stannis outside Storm's End. But if he could have left earlier that would be a better move. Or in hindsight just leaving Penrose behind. Agreed. Leave Cortnay Penrose behind. Then take the city. Wait until Tywin arrives. Then kill him with the second one.
  6. True. Though it might take him some time to find him if Tyrion dies of his wound and Cersei kills herself. There might be enough time for him to be smuggled away. Or he might get handed over easily. Certainly but normally (huge glaring exception in the Blackwater battle) an army can't just appear out of nowhere. If Tywin moved against KL he would have time to counter. Stannis certainly wants/needs to beat Tywin to cement his rule. If he managed to take Kingslanding without ship delays he'd have time to get ready to fight Tywin. He has roughly the same number of men as Tywin, but his men are superior. Being that his 16k from Renly are all lords, knights and mounted men-at-arms. Agreed. Well I tend to think he should have left Storm's End earlier, he waited about 2 weeks before killing Cortnay Penrose. If he left earlier he might have even avoided the bad weather. Imagine if he had taken Kingslanding and had 4weeks to prepare for defense or further campaigning.
  7. The other thing that I bring up time and again is it's possible Mel and Stannis might have been able to make another animated shadow assassin if he won. We know he couldn't after the Blackwater but we don't really know the cost. A victorious Stannis rather than a depressed broken Stannis might have enough spirit to create another. I'm sure this was Mel's plan. I mean why waste one on Penrose if you only had 2 up your sleeve.
  8. This is a really good point. It's only in retreating that the chain and damage to his ships is so devastating. He still had ships upriver that had survived (who scuttle after he looses, that's some loyalty right there). Up until the Tyrell-Lannister arrive he had won with minimal land casualties. The Goldcloaks were fleeing their posts, Tyrion lay close to death in the field. Joffrey was in hiding. The city would have fallen overnight, leaving only the Red Keep. Another strike against Tyrion. I agree with this. Especially if Stannis wasn't delayed by a storm and the wildfire/chain didn't happen (which he couldn't expect). It's a great plan. He wins the Naval part through clear numbers superiority and likely increases his naval capacity with captured ships (normally not destroyed). He takes the city with only small casualties to land force. He has a few days to recover and repair damaged defenses. He can execute Joffrey or send him to Dragonstone as hostage. I think keeping Joffrey alive (until the conflict is over) is a better idea because then it avoid Martyr-ing him and makes it harder for Lannisters to prop up Tommen. He thinks he might get Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei (in reality 2 had been removed and Cersei probably would kill herself) He gets the Redwyne twins to remove Paxter Redwyne (and his navy) as a threat and Sansa (and he thinks Arya) to help his negotiations with the North. He can then leave a garrison and campaign either with the goal of attacking Tywin or solidifying his hold on the Reach.
  9. Counterpoint: It was smart of Balon to attack Robb

    I'm sure it was said before in this thread. It's dumb to declare himself King AND attack the North. Robb was the only other faction that might allow seperate Kingdoms. Stannis, Renly and the Lannisters want the whole thing and no other Kings. He could have attacked the North and waited to see how the South plays out before joining whatever side came out on top. Best case scenario he wins a chunk of the North, worst case he is made to withdraw, still gaining loot, revenge and Ironborn prestige.
  10. mines of castamere

    Oh get why Tywin did it the way he did. He needed them dead quickly and in a flashy show everyone how brutal I am sort of way. I'm just saying any other time it doesn't need that much engineering, just some brickwork to seal them in.
  11. Which non-Great House castle would you want to live in?

    I was going to say the Arbor, but hinking about it the Twins is actually quite nice without the Freys in it. Very hard to besiege, good source of income, fresh running water and plenty of fish I'd imagine. Evidently has a lot of room given how many kids Old Walder Frey has. Also strong force of bannermen/levies to rely on. If I was Lord of the Twins I'd get very friendly with the Mallisters, helping defend them from Ironborn raids. In turn they're my closest allies to help reinforce/resupply me during a siege from the North (unlikely as it might be). I'd also buddy up to the Crannogmen, trades and give them stuff. Firstly because I don't want to be shot with a poison arrow and there help would be useful if I was ever besieged from the south.
  12. mines of castamere

    Can I once again say how dumb the Reynes were in designing their castle? Sure daming a river is pretty ingenious but what if a besieging lord simply managed to take the upper levels and decided to wall up every possible entrance to the underground bit? Wait months or years until they starve in the dark and then dig it open to loot the castle.
  13. I agree they burnt some big bridges at...Bitterbridge. I don't think that willing go to Stannis with open arms. But there might be a point where they feel they need to cut losses and throw Loras and Tarly under the bridge. Or that bannermen who who weren't purged might start to think Stannis is a better idea, and consider defecting or a coup. At this point if Stannis has taken KL the Lannister star has considerably fallen. With Jaime in chains, Robb running wild in the West. I think the problem with Mel is that she isn't honest with her limitations. Her powers (both in visions and animated shadows) are very useful but as you say she misinterpreted the visions. He should definitely listen to her council, but not follow her blindly.
  14. Long winters in reality vs long winters in AsoIaF

    Heh. I remember that word from highschool
  15. I agree and have changed my mind. You are correct it was still a gamble to attack Kingslanding as it could go wrong for all those reasons. Things were indeed going very well for Stannis, mainly because Tyrion was terrible at his job. I still thing the timing was ludicrous and not just because I'm a Stannis fan, I'd do so if the sides were reverse. Actually I probably wouldn't because I'm a flawed individual. Yes he still has enemies in the field. But knowing that is different to them being less than 24hrs from attacking you with the largest army history has ever seen. As I said. Had the winds not knocked his fleet of course he'd have taken Kingslanding much earlier. It might not be a great position, as you've mentioned re: supplies, but it's better than where he was after the Blackwater. He can either defend or leave a garrison and move to raid/attack. Or even abandon the city but leave with a dead Joffrey, a hostage or dead Cersei and possibly a rescued Sansa. If he'd taken Kingslanding, it's the question of whether the Tyrells would still be willing to commit to the alliance or cut their losses. Stannis has a bunch of their bannermen with him. To be fair about Mel though up to that point everything she'd told him had come true. I think one of his biggest mistakes was to leave her behind, she's not omnipresent but she's sure good at keeping her own skin. Put her on the first boat into the Blackwater and I'm sure she'll see the Wildfire.And had he won there's the possibility they might have another animated shadow assassin up their sleeve (a victorious Stannis might be able to survive creating another). So if the Lannister and Tyrells arrived, Tywin and/or Mace Tyrell might have died over night. But you are right for narrative purposes the Blackwater had to happen that way to make it exciting. For that purpose many characters carrying the idiot-ball momentarily. throughout the series.