Dukhasinov

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  1. Westeros is home to a form of magic that might be the only real coutermeasure against the dragonlords; Skinchangers. Even if a warg could not successfully subdue a dragon, he could probably make it buck and throw its rider from the air. Failing that, a warg could do the same to the rider. The threat of skinchangers would have been mostly ended by the Andal invasion, but the Valyrians would not necessarily know that. Westeros might just have been that wild place where their dragons went mad beneath them.
  2. Meraxes and Rhaenys were grounded by the weather when she faced the Durandon army, but she was still a fearsome weapon on the ground. Instead of being an attack hellicopter in a medieval setting, she becomes a tank in a medieval setting. You`re right. Maybe that`s why the Valyrians never expanded into Westeros. Maybe, in ancient times, a few freebooting dragonlords poked around Westeros and encountered an alien magic that could neutralize their dragon advantage, maybe even turn their dragons against them. Skinchangers evidently take pride in the animals that they are able to control, so dominating a dragon would likely be the ultimate prize. The Andal conquest would have largely neutralized the warg threat, but the Valyrians might not have known that. Maybe they just thought it best to stear clear of the wild western continent where their dragons mysteriously went mad beneath them. Wow! I just got a whole lot more to think about.
  3. Sounds like someone knows his way around howitzers
  4. It seems that if the dragon is large enough for a man to ride, than it is mostly invulnerable to physical violence. Wildfire might be an effective weapon against Danny`s dragons. Moondancer, who was a bit older than Danny`s dragons, was blinded by Sunfyre`s flames. Arrows will be largely ineffective against a dragon of fighting weight. Stormcloud was killed by arrows and a scorpion bolt in the neck, but he was very young, barely large enough to carry a 9 year old buy. Even if they pierce the dragon`s scales, they aren`t large enough to cause serious wounds. Even hitting the beast in the eye, unless it`s with enough force to carry through to the brain, will most likely just leave you with an angry one-eyed dragon to fight. The Gullet was probably the best example of draconic dominance in warfare. 90 war-galleys against 5 dragons. The Three Daughters fleet lost 32 ships and brought down ONE dragon. The storming of the Dragonpit seems to show the best meathods of bringing down dragons, if you don`t happen to have dragons of your own. Swarm them with sharp, heavy weapons while they are grounded and cornered. Also, remember that the dragons you see in the show are much too large for their age. Danny`s dragons are only 3 or 4 years old, but they already seem to be about as large as descriptions of Balerion, who was more than 200 when he died. (Large enough to swallow an aurochs whole) Sunfyre, who was maybe 25 years old, took 6 bites to devour Rhaenyra Targaryen. (Leaving the 7th bite, her lower leg, to the Stranger) Syrax was presumably larger when she was killed at the storming of the Dragonpit, and she was not chained or confined. It is also left deliberately vague as to exactly how she was killed. My theory is that when she landed in the streets, and was set upon by the mob, she could not find an open space large enough to spread her wings and take off. She may also have beet set upon from behind in an alley too narrow for her to turn around and defend herself.
  5. Aegon III, hands down. The last dragon hatched and died during his reign. It seems there is a lot to learn about Archmaester Marwyn`s alleged anti-dragon conspiracy during this period. It wasn`t just the royal stable of dragons that died on his watch, but apparently all of the scattered dragons as well, like Silverwing, who was living wild in the Reach. Why was Aegon`s a "Broken Reign?"
  6. Ever since I heard that HBO was thumbing through ideas for prequel successor shows to Game of Thrones, there only seemed to be one real possibility to me; the reign of King Viserys and the Dance of the Dragons. Read The Rogue Prince, and The Princess and the Queen, and you`ll find 4 or 5 seasons worth of drama-fodder. The much more modest cast of characters and settings will make the show much more manageable in the early seasons, building momentum for high-budget, epic dragon-warfare in the last season or two. Early on, it would be more like The Tudors, or The Borjias, than Game of Thrones. I`ll throw together a rough overview of essential plot points that can go in each season. SEASON ONE-Ascension of King Viserys, the conflict between the Hand, Otto Hightower, and Prince Daemon, Daemon`s tenure as Commander of the Gold Cloaks, Daemon`s relationship with Mysaria, assorted scheming at court, ending with the death of Viserys` queen, the King`s break with his brother Daemon over the later`s "Heir for a Day" jape, Princess Rhaenyra`s investiture as Princess of Dragonstone, and Daemon slinking off to Driftmark, furious that he was not named Prince of Dragonstone. Daemon is obviously the driving force in this season. SEASON TWO- Otto Hightower`s scheming to dangle his daughter in front of the King, Alicent Hightower`s courtship with Viserys, Alicent`s initial friendship with Rhaenyra, Daemon`s scheming with Corlis Velaryon and wars in the Stepstones (Dragons fighting ships!!!) Rhaenyra`s infatuation with Ser Criston Cole, Corlis Velaryon`s anger at the King passing over his daughter Laena for marriage, ending with Viserys` marriage to Alicent Hightower. SEASON THREE- Birth of Viserys` children by Queen Alicent, Alicent`s deteriorating relationship with Rhaenyra at court, conflict over Rhaenyra`s succession, Rhaenyra`s deepening infatuation with Criston Cole, dismissal of Otto Hightower as Hand, Tourney of 111 AC, formal demarcation of "Greens" and "Blacks," culminating in Daemon`s return to court. SEASON FOUR- Daemon`s seduction and/or manipulation of Rhaenyra, to assist her in seducing Criston Cole, Daemon`s subsequent exile from court, the death of Daemon`s wife, and his subsequent marriage to Laena Velaryon, after dispatching her betrothed, Rhaenyra`s final falling out with Criston Cole, revenge f**king Harwin Strong, and marriage to Laenor Velaryon, Rhaenyra`s assumption of her seat on Dragonstone SEASON FIVE- relationships between Daemon/Laena between Driftmark and Dragonstone, conflict between the young sons of Rhaenyra and Alicent, continuing conflict between Rhaenyra and Alicent, questions of the paternity of Rhaenyra`s sons, growth and relationships of the dragons of the rival princes, King Viserys trying to mend the conflict in his family, death of Laenor Velaryon, death of Laena Velaryon, the family`s gathering on Driftmark for the funeral, and Aemond`s claiming of Vhagar, Viserys mediating conflict between his wife and daughter after Aemond loses his eye, death of Lyonell and Harwin Strong, return of Otto Hightower, Culminating in the speedy courtship and marriage of Daemon and Rhaenyra. SEASON SIX- death of King Viserys...... After that, the show pretty much writes itself. Military maneuvers and backroom plots. Action-packed battle sequences, the violent death and mutilation of characters (human and dragon) that you`ve grown to love over the last 5 seasons. Plot points with really incredible drama potential, like Luke Velaryon`s death over Shipbreaker Bay, the gathering of the Dragonseeds, Blood and Cheese, Criston Cole`s death in the Riverlands, Rhaenyra`s growing paranoia and dysfunction, Daemon`s duel with Aemond above the God`s Eye, the storming of the Dragonpit, Rhaenyra`s betrayal and death on Dragonstone, the slow and piteous death of Sunfyre the Golden, and Aegon the Elder`s death by poisoning. There are some characters barely mentioned in the series that could be awesome characters in a show, like Lyonell Strong, Mushroom, and Mysaria. Daemon Targaryen can be the long-term antihero that everyone either loves to hate, or loves and won`t admit it, like Cesare Borgia. The amount of raw feelz invoked when Viserion went down can be multiplied seven-fold with the deaths of Arrax, Vermax, Tessarion, Sunfyre, Caraxes, Tyraxes, and Syrax. It will be Bambi, Turner and Hooch, Dragonheart, and Old Yeller all rolled into one. The FEEEEELZ!!!!
  7. A traditional Ironborn wedding would probably look a lot like a Dothraki wedding, but maybe with slightly less gratuitous fucking, and better alcohol.
  8. If he did know about Davos, he probably would not have cared. You have a pretty good idea of the Tyrell position in Robert`s Rebellion. The war essentially came down to the Crownlands, the Reach, and Dorne against the Stormlands, the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North. The Targaryens were not the smart horse to back in that war. Mace did his duty as a Targaryen loyalist, but wanted to keep his options open in case Robert was victorious. Torching Robert`s ancestral home and beheading (or starving to death) Robert`s brother would not put him on very good footing with the rebels if they took King`s Landing.
  9. Jon was a terrible Lord Commander. Allowing the Wildlings through the wall was a good pragmatic decision, but he completely ignored the fact that generations of the Night`s Watch had forgotten completely about the Others and considered the Wildlings to be the enemy against which the Watch defended. Blood feuds that old and deep can`t be set aside so easily. Intervening to save Alys Karstark was a bad idea, as he gained the enmity of one of the most powerful Houses in the North. Sending Mance Rayder to Winterfell was extremely risky, endangering the neutrality of the Night`s Watch by interfering with the internal struggles of the Realm. Finally, he compounded this grievous error by proposing to lead the Watch south in a war against the lawful Warden of the North. This was a crisis the likes of which the Watch had not seen in generations. Assassinating him was pretty logical from that perspective.
  10. I didn`t even try to predict that. That`s entirely up in the air. Maybe it will make the dragons go berserk and burn the Iron Victory? It`s really anyone`s guess.
  11. The idea of a supply train is mostly a thing of resource-intensive modern warfare. Ancient armies didn`t need a constant flow of ammo, fuel, lubricants, spare parts, and batteries. Food and most raw materials could be looted from the surrounding countryside. That`s how Hannibal`s army stayed in Italy for 14 years while the Romans controlled the sea. Westerosi armies are shown to not have much in the way of a log train. Gregor Clegane and Roose Bolton both supply their met at Harenhal by foraging. There really is no easy way for Danny`s army to get to Westeros unless Martin waves a magic wand the way the show did. She has something like 50,000 men now, not counting the several tens of thousands of men and horses she`s likely to bring back with her to Meereen. There is no way, even with the Iron Fleet and the Yunkish and Volantene prizes, she`ll have enough hulls to make the trip entirely by sea. I`ll throw you a huge bone and assume that Danny comes back to Meereen without an army at her back. That`s still 50,000ish men, and MAYBE 300 ships, the vast majority of which are rowed galleys. Slaver`s Bay is also noticeably sparse on trees, so building hundreds more ships is not feasible. Yes, smart men are telling her that the Demon Road is dangerous, but we`ve seen Victarion lose half of his fleet in what might be the longest sea voyage in the world`s history, and the Golden Company scattered by storms just crossing the narrow sea. So, it seems to be up in the air as to which route is more dangerous. Yes, it`s hard to find water to drink in the desert. But you know a place that has even less drinking water? The ocean. They would have to take on fresh water DAILY. Most of her fleet being galleys, she would also have to beech her fleet every night to rest. Galleys aren`t known for their roomy berthing space. Besides a sea voyage or a march down the Demon Road, her only choice is to strike north into the Dothraki Sea, then west to Pentos. That would, of course, require her to divide her army from her fleet. And unlike the uncertain and poorly defined dangers of the Demon Road, that route has the very real danger of roving Khalasars that might not take kindly to their tresspass. Also, unlike the Demon Road, the Dothraki Sea has no cities along the way that can be extorted for supplies. The march to Volantis is about 1500 miles. Mantarys sits pretty neatly at the halfway point, like a perfectly places gas station. Upon reaching Volantis, their fresh water problem is over if they march north up the Rhoyne and then strike west for Pentos. So, how do you think Danny`s Achaemanid-scale horde is going to reach Westeros, mister contrary-pants?
  12. Maybe the Dothraki have never seen anything like a NORTHERN winter, but much of the Dothraki Sea shares a latitude with the Riverlands, which is now seeing snow. Dorne, it is not. What makes you think the Dothraki don`t know anything about logistics? And how do you figure they don`t have arrowmakers and smiths? They have arrows and arakhs, don`t they? If we`re talking about their warfare in Essos, their whole society is their supply line. While the screamers are out raiding, their wives are fletching arrows, tanning hides, smoking meat, striking and setting up camp. Their young sons are herding the spare horses and livestock. Their old men are making saddles and swords. They carry their whole lives with them on carts and pack animals. What makes you think they`re not smart enough to load down a few hundred mules with extra quivers? Keeping supplied with ammunition on a long campaign won`t be a new problem for them. If we`re talking about the ones in Danny`s army, they will have the support of same logistics system that will keep the rest of her army supplied (likely by skilled freedmen from Volantis). Yes, keeping their horses fed will be an issue, but it`s one that they`re used to dealing with. Yes, horses have to stop and eat, just like soldiers do. Westerosi knights` horses have to rest and eat, to, and they need a lot more food and are far pickier about what they can eat. Nomadic hordes ranged through Europe on several occasions (Avars, Magyars, Huns), and they managed to keep their horses fed in that most un-steppelike environment, probably by feeding them captured grain. And while armor certainly helps against arrows, it`s not a force-field. The Romans learned that at Carhae. And I`ll concede that a wealthy knight`s suit of plate is superior to a legionary`s lorica, the average levied puke with a bill-hook is not that well protected. Yes, Arsuf is a blueprint for beating the Dothraki. All the Westerosi have to do is keep their back to the sea for the entire war. Randyl Tarly needs to study the Jaxartes if he wants to handle the Dothraki. Incidentally, Arsuf is also a pretty good model for marching Danny`s army down the Demon Road; March in the morning and at dusk, rest during the heat of the day, hug the coast, etc. Yes, it`s a lot longer. Long marches suck. I get it. It sucked for Xenophon, to. It sucked for Alexander. But it`s doable. But you`re probably right that it would be smarter in the long run for Danny to not bring them, given how badly they`ll fuck up her peace. But in the short run, she needs cavalry badly.
  13. I think most of the fear of the demon road comes from superstition, much like the fear of the ruins of Valyria. It is a very large desert, which does come with dangers, like heat and lack of water, but the first will be mitigated by the season, and the second can be managed by careful planning. Yes, long marches are aweful, but that`s how armies get around. You set a pace that can be held over long distances, and you stop and rest after 8 or 10 hours on the march. The Dothraki are definitely NOT heavy cavalry with bows. The Plains Indians used lances, to, and they were definitely still light cavalry. Look at the field of crows; a frontal charge, followed by a feigned retreat, then a barrage of arrows, wrapped up by a total encirclement. Pretty classic light cavalry tactics. (We don`t talk about Qohor.) Yes, the scythians or parthians are a better parallel than the Mongols, but there isn`t really a big difference technologically. The Mongol bows weren`t that different than the bows the scythians used. The Mongols even used stone arrowheads a lot, at least before they got hold of the resources of China. The Dothraki also are not going to be operating alone. They will be maneuvering around friendly infantry, and not expendable arrow-fodder infantry, at that. They are also perfectly capable of adapting to new tactical situations. Yes, traditionally they fight unarmored foes with long curved swords. But they aren`t stupid. They`ll figure out that bodkin arrows are better at piercing armor. Maybe someone will even realize this before the army makes the crossing and makes a stockpile of bodkin arrows beforehand. Maces and warhammers are also effective against armor, and are a lot cheaper than swords. A lasso can be used to snatch an armored knight off his horse and drag him to his death. The huns and sarmatians both used this tactic. They might even be persuaded to wear some degree of armor. If they`ve already overcome their deep cultural aversion to crossing the ocean, they`ve already proven themselves to be pretty openminded. Why do you suppose that the Dothraki will have a hard time in winter? Essos has winter, to. If you consider the Dothraki sea to be equivalent to the Eurasia Steppe, it probably has a pretty brutal winter. Even in the show they found some Ikea rugs to wrap around the Dothraki. As for logistics, they`ll be better off than Westerosi cavalry, as Dothraki horses wouldn`t be the grain-spoiled hothouse flowers that Westeros breed. Nomadic culures breed hardy and adaptible horseflesh. I`ll see your "Arsuf," and raise you a "Hatin." I think bringing up Crecy and Agincourt make my point better than yours. Both were lost by heavily armored cavalry to highly proficient archers. Arrows can kill armored men. Arrows are cheap and easy to make. put enough of them in the air, and some are bound to find the joints in the armor, or wound the horses. The big problem with the Dothraki is not whether they can win the war, but the fact that they will almost certainly lose the peace. Of course they`re going to rape pillage and murder during the fighting, but what is Danny supposed to do with them after the war is won? Maybe after the War for the Dawn the North will be so badly depopulated that they can be settled there, but they`ll want to migrate south during winter. You can`t very well put them in the Reach, and have the most productive farmland in the Kingdom given over to nomadic pasturage. Not to mention that they`re an aggressive raiding culture, and will want to continue in that way of life. Dothraki reservations, maybe?
  14. The overland route will be a cakewalk. They have a paved road. The Dothraki are nomads. They`re on the march all the time. The Unsullied are professional soldiers. Long marches are their mother`s milk. The freedmen troops are in worse shape, but the pace can be slowed to accomodate them. There is no reason to march them hard enough to make them drop from exhaustion. It`s not the Baatan Death March. In fact, the march to Mantarys will be one long conditioning march. The heat of the desert won`t be a big problem with the onset of winter. In the Planetos crazy-season-calendar, it`s probably about the equivalent of October, which is a pretty nice time of year in every desert I`ve ever been in. Keeping the army watered will be tricky, but if scouts map out the rivers and oases along the route, it should be manageable. Communication shouldn`t be a problem for the Dothraki. Most of Danny`s army speaks the bastard-Valyrain of Slaver`s Bay. The Dothraki trade in Slaver`s Bay all the time. I`m sure plenty of them know enough of the language to get by. A lot of the freedmen and Unsullied are, also, themselves Dothraki. Also, you don`t seem to have a great grasp of ancient warfare. Any heavily mounted army in history that you care to name was lightly armored or unarmored. The Mongols, even after they were rich from their conquest of China, rode to war mostly unarmored. History is full of examples of lightly equipped nomadic cavalry forces cutting apart armies based around foot-soldiers. Take a history book and throw it against the wall. When it falls to the floor, there is a good chance that it will be open to a page with an example of this. Even if it`s an American history book. The United States, a politically united, technologically advanced, industrialized nation of 60,000,000, took more than a century to subdue the Plains Indians, which were squabbling, disorganized tribes of stone-age hunter-gatherers numbering about 50,000. Horse culture is a powerful thing. The Dothraki are going to take any force Westeros can throw at them and eat them raw.
  15. I don`t see a big Ironborn internal conflict happening. There is no way that Euron sent Victarion to Slaver`s Bay without anticipating his betrayal. He knows that Victarion hates him. But he`s a lot smarter than Victarion, so he must have some kind of trump card. He`s playing a really long game. I don`t see Braavos getting involved at all. They`re way too far away to be in Danny`s path of travel. I can see the Iron Bank making overtures to Danny if they think she`s going to wind up on top, but at this point, they`ve already bet on Stannis. The Volantene slaves may well overthrow their masters and open the gates for Danny before she finishes measuring the walls for her siege towers. Leaving the Dothraki to keep the peace anywhere is the very definition of setting the fox to guard the henhouse. The Dothraki would follow her for the promise of glory and plunder, crossing the Narrow Sea to the Sunset Kingdom precisely because it`s never been done before. They wouldn`t be satisfied being Meereen`s Gold Cloaks. At best, they would foster the return of the slave economy that was always so profitable for them in the past. Aegon has to deal with the Reach before he gets anywhere near the Lannisters. There are two serious Tyrell armies in the field, and one of them is led my Randyl Tarly. But it`s hard to see the Golden Company losing to a comparably sized Westerosi force. They are professional soldiers going up against feudal levies.