Lost Melnibonean

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About Lost Melnibonean

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    Traveler of Both Time and Space

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    Falling Off the Edge of the World
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    Duh, ASOIAF

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  1. Bran will warg Ghost

    But, the basic structure of the saga outlined in that letter--the three major conflicts (the War of the Five Kings, the Second Dance of the Dragons, and the War for the Dawn)--that survived, no?
  2. Most precise ASOIAF timeline v.3

    Having served in a US light infantry division, I can assure you that 20 miles is a solid estimate of how far a non-mechanized army can march per day. If you're talking about getting somewhere very fast over relatively gentle terrain, 25 to 30 miles a day is possible, but after a week of that, even well-trained and physically fit soldiers will be exhausted. So, if you've got to march over 100 miles, or if you're going to be marching for a week or more, you really need to limit your march to 20 miles a day. I don't believe a mostly mounted army is going to move much faster. First, you don't want to leave your cavalry unsupported by infantry and vice versa. Second, some of those horse are going to be pulling carts in your bagged train. Third, your outriders and scouts will be far ahead and spread out wide, but they will be sending messages back and forth from the very front of their reach to the main column. And that's why Stannis very reasonably assumes he can march the 300 miles from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell in 15 days. Now, if we're talking nothing but light cavalry with plenty of horses to share the load of riders and their armor and other equipment over relatively easy terrain, I suppose we could assume that such a unit could travel 30 miles per day, and I guess such a unit could cover 300 miles in a week. Six days would be really pushing it. I don't have the Lands of Ice and Fire. I think my wife would divorce me if she caught me looking at them. (Some men have to hide porn; I have to hide ASOIAF.) I was using this. The distance from Storm's End to Bronzegate (around the eastern end of the Dornish Marches mountain range) is at least more than twice the distance from Storm's End to Griffin's Roost (along shore of Breakwater Bay). I eyeballed it at thrice the distance. I see what you mean about the trials. We know that Cersei's trial will occur with five days of the small council meeting in the Epilogue to Dance, but we don't know if Margaery's trial happens before, at the same time, or after Cersei's trial. I disagree that the wording suggests that Margaery's trial takes place before Cersei's trial. In fact, I would guess that it suggests that Margaery's trial takes place first. After Margaery's trial Mace can begin final preparations to march, and then depart the day after Cersei's trial. So, I would put 24 days between the Epilogue and Arianne II, Winds. Jon Connington and Aegon should be able to march on Storm’s End from Griffin’s Roost in two days. Mathis Rowan's outriders should report Aegon's movement within a day of Aegon’s march. Assuming Mathis dispatches a bird immediately, and assuming Storm's End falls within a day of Aegon's arrival, the Epilogue to Dance should occur the same day, or maybe the day after Storm's End falls to Aegon. And I guess that allows us to place The Griffin Reborn, what, 14 days before the Epilogue to Dance? (2 days plus 11, plus 1?) I will try to take a look at Arianne I, Winds again tomorrow.
  3. Wow, I never noticed that v.15

    Tyrion V, Dance 18 Tyrion hates his family, and he hungers for Casterly Rock. His hunger outweighs his hatred.
  4. Child of Three & One to Love

    Daenerys finally comes upon the Undying... That's three dragons. That's three lives, one know, and three echoes of the know. Note that Daenerys was the mother of three dragons. So, three fires, three mounts, and three treasons, the last of each for love. That's nine fires, mounts, and treasons. So, after Daenerys asks for help to understand these nine fires, mounts, and treasons, she sees nine more visions grouped into three sets of three. It seems likely that the nine fires, mounts, and treasons relate to the nine visions that follow her plea for help in understanding. As to the mother of dragons, daughter of death . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . . and mother of dragons, bride of fire . . . sequence, recall when Daenerys walked into the pyre, between the hatching of the second and third eggs, as she heard Jorah calling to her... Daenerys X, Game The only thing missing from the pyre scene is slayer of lies. But that seems understandable, no? We generally understand slayer of lies to mean eater of red herring, dont we? Ironically, Daenerys herself is the biggest red herring in the tale, since the prince who was promised is Jon Snow, son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. The first fire she lit was Drogo’s pyre... to give life to her dragons. I believe the show spoiled the second of three fires Daenerys will light. The third fire will be her funeral pyre after she dies giving birth to Aegon's child, and she will return to Drogo. The first mount she rides to bed is her silver to the stream, on her wedding night with Drogo. The second mount to dread is Drogon. The third will be the smoky stallion she rides from her funeral pyre to Drogo in the Night Lands. Illyrio will betray her for the blood of the Blackfyre; Tyrion will betray her for all the gold of Casterly Rock; and Aegon will betray her for love of Arianne. Viserys is identified in the first vision of the three triplets. The second is most likely a morrow not made--her never born son whose place was taken by The Dragon. The third alludes to the union of ice and fire that leads to Jon Snow. Viserys died, Rhaego died, and Rhaegar died. Each of those deaths shaped Daenerys, so that she is the daughter death. (If Rhaegar had killed Robert...) I think the lies she must slay are the three men currently working to take the Iron Throne. I think the three visions in the last triplet refer to The three men she will love, not necessarily wed. Or not.
  5. Moments of Foreshadowing v.11

    The Last Storm foreshadows Jon Connington defeating Mace Tyrell between Storm’s End and Bronzegate. At the end of Arianne II, Winds, Across the Blackwater from King's Landing, the Kingsroad runs southeast through the Kingswood, across the Wendwater and emerges from the great forest at Bronzegate, which stands in the proximity of several small towns, just north of where the Dornish Marches end. To the northeast stands Haystack Hall, and to the southwest stands Fellwood. Between the eastern edge and the mountain range and the Straights of Tarth we see relatively easy coastal terrain with some hills along the King’s Road southeast of Bronzegate. The Kingsroad turns more to the south past the mountaims to Storm's End on the northern shore of Breakwater Bay. The distance between Bronzegate and Storm’s End appears to be about three times the distance form Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End, so that ought to be about 120 miles, or about six days of marching. From The Conquest... In our coming battle, we know from Arianne II, Winds We could read about the coming battle as it happens from Jon Connington's POV, or perhaps we will read an account of it reported to Cersei in King’s Landing or to Arianne at Storm’s End. I expect we will learn that Golden Company outriders will have harrassed Mace’s van which will surely be led by Randyll Tarly. From The Conquest... We don't know whether Lord Errol is back at Haystack Hall, or with Stannis, or it's possible he fell on the Blackwater. Lord Fell fell in the Wolfswood. Lord Buckler is at Bronzegate. Perhaps we will learn that Lord Buckler and levies from Haystack Hall and Fellwood will join with Jon Connington and Aegon. From The Conquest... So, perhaps the Lord of the Waters will join the fight for Aegon as well, or maybe the Lord of the Waters and Dorne will join Aegon in the aftermath of the battle. During the Conquest, "Dickon Morrigen and the Bastard of Blackhaven, commanding the vanguard, were" both killed, suggesting that Randyll, the leader of Mace’s van, and his son Dickon will die in our coming battle. Aegon's Hand in the Conquest slew the enemy commander in single combat after offering him the chance to yield, suggesting that Jon Connington might offer Mace the same chance. Unlike Argilac, i suspect Mace might take Jon Connington's offer.
  6. Bran will warg Ghost

    I know. I was just goofin around. Sorry. I will stop now.
  7. Bran will warg Ghost

    Not while she's alive, silly goose, but after she expires in a bed of blood.
  8. Littlefinger for Renly?

    Yes.
  9. Does fAegon annoy anyone else?

    Hey, I just read the other stuff. Super cool, but I was very dismayed that the George chose the lemon pie!
  10. Bran will warg Ghost

    Some will suffer no slights against their favorite character(s). (Try talking about how Jon will take Drogon. )
  11. Friends in the Reach

  12. The trial is over?

    At the end of Arianne II, Winds,
  13. Most precise ASOIAF timeline v.3

    Thank you!
  14. Did Roose betray Robb from the get go?

    Yes, that is possible. But what do you think the storyteller was saying to us?
  15. Friends in the Reach

    I know you don't, Sheldon. You have no song in your heart. You approach ASOIAF as if it were a history. That of course is an element of ASOIAF, but it is also a high fantasy in literature, a work of art, a song.