Jasta11

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About Jasta11

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    Grey Warden of the Night's Watch

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  1. A lot of your positions hinge on the fact that the Watch will support the guy who just shanked the Lord Commander, which I can't see happening regardless of Jon's faults. Maybe he wasn't very popular, but he wasn't so unpopular that there was open dissent within the rank and file that I remember. If Marsh enjoyed such broad support, why didn't he confront and remove Jon from power (avoiding much potential chaos in the process) rather than go through the highly risky plan of having him and a few friends shank the guy in a crowd next to a raging giant? This image doesn't reconcile with the idea that this was a highly organized coup to me. Marsh is not Littlefinger, he's a glorified copper counter who hastily decided to take matters into his own hands, not a master planner who has everything figured out before he unleashes his coup de grace. Given that we have no hints that Marsh's men are in control of the hostages, it's also hard for me to assume the Wildlings will just stand down. Them behaving is a combination of the hostage and good will towards Jon. Marsh literally stabbed that goodwill to death, I wouldn't be surprised if the Wildings use the chaos to take back their hostage by force, or at least try. And if that happens, they can very easily overwhelm Castle Black with their superior numbers. There aren't many named characters loyal to Jon, but that doesn't mean the rank-and-file are disloyal or will side with Marsh immediately. They dislike the Wildlings for sure, but again some will be survivors of the Fist and know there's bigger threats out there, that's partly why they voted for Jon in the first place. They may not be the realm's best and brightest, but there's clearly some respect for authority left in the Watch. Shanking the Lord Commander will trigger a response, and possibly a mini civil war within the Watch as outlying outposts inevitably hear the news. And from a Doylist viewpoint, there's very little chances that Marsh's plan succeeds. For the purposes of the story, Jon is the main character at the Wall. He's not going to stay dead, if only because leaving only Mel as a point of view at the crucial location of the Wall is not going to happen for a very long time. At best Marsh gets some very shaky control over Castle Black, then Jon gets rezzed and all hell breaks loose for him. But I doubt the conspirators even survive that long.
  2. This all assumes that Marsh planned his coup way ahead. Given the hurried circumstances in which they happen, I think that's doubtful at best. It is not indicated that Marsh-loyal men control the hostages, and indeed if Jon has a minimum of judgment (which he has even if he does make mistakes) the guys in charge of this are loyal to him in fact. One also has to remember that Jon still enjoyed the loyalty of a fair portion of the Watchmen, who will be most displeased when their Lord Commander gets shanked regardless of whenever he deserved it or not. I suspect a lot of that is because there were other survivors from the Fist of the First Men, they have seen the Wights and know the Others are the real enemy. Preventing news from spreading about a giant commotion at Castle Black and the Lord Commander getting shanked? On top of all the troubles that will ensue afterwards? Also seems like a pretty monumental task for a group of people who are currently in a big, potentially hostile crowd which includes a pissed off giant. An agreement with Tormund also seems pretty much impossible to me. Jon was the one Crow he had a measure of respect for, and Marsh stabbed the fuck outta him. I'd count Bowen lucky if Tormund doesn't attempt to rip his head off with his bare (bear?) hands as soon as he can. Selyse will also at best stay neutral in this affair, and at worst for Marsh her knights will side against the guy who needs to ship her off to the Boltons in order to placate them. They will surely defend her if Marsh presses the issue. I see little ways for Marsh and his conspirators to survive this, unless the coup is very well planned and he enjoys a very significant support among the Watchmen, both of which are unlikely to me.
  3. -snipped for brevity's sake- That is the heart of the issue. Marsh didn't stab Jon out of some principle of what the Watch should do or not or because he disapproved of his mission on moral grounds. It was politics. Bowen believes the Watch must have the support of the ruling authorities, first the IT and now the Boltons. Jon threatens this first by being chosen instead of the IT's patsy, and second by openly defying the Boltons. Marsh then acts so that the Watch stays with the winning side. He doesn't give a fuck about the Watch's neutrality, which is impossible to maintain at this point anyway. He chooses to side with the IT rather than with Jon and the Wildlings. I'm not sure how he and his conspirators expect to survive. Perhaps they simply don't. The Wildlings are numerous enough to be able to kill everyone else in Castle Black now that the one dude that champions their cause gets cowardly stabbed, assuming Wun Wun doesn't turn the conspirators into paste first. I think Marsh acted in panic, which is why his plan isn't very well thought out. But to him, it's the last resort, so it makes sense that his ideas weren't very elaborate.
  4. I don't dislike them per se, but do dislike how much focus is put on the Targaryens, at the expense of IMO more interesting families and region's histories and characters.
  5. The problem with rationalizing the gangrape of a star-struck 13 years old guy's wife, is that it then becomes very easily to rationalize said guy murdering the one that did this to him in the heat of the moment.
  6. The Common Tongue makes little sense. A continent the size of South America, with very varied regions in terms of history and culture, having one monolithic language? So much so that a Wildling raider, a Dornish noble, a Vale tradesman and an Ironborn sailor could all understand each other perfectly and even use some of the same idioms? I understand that GRRM did it for the sake of convenience. But it makes absolutely no logical sense whatsoever. It's one area where Essos is actually more believable than Westeros, different peoples have different languages.
  7. Right then, let's assume this is actually what happened. Still doesn't tell me why it's a good plan or how Rhaegar is supposed to drum up the overwhelming support he needs to force an abdication on the reigning King when few Lords have any interest in seeing Aerys forcibly removed (quite the contrary).
  8. He wouldn't be as bad as we saw him, but I doubt he would have been that much better. On this Lyanna was right, Robert is too dominated by his passions. He loved the idea of Lyanna, but the actual person would have stood up to him and either bored or infuriated him in the end. The relationship wouldn't have been as hilariously toxic as his marriage with Cercei, but I don't think Robert was ever going to be happy with one woman. He wants to be an eternal teen/young adult, fighting all day long, drinking all evening long and fucking all night long. That's not the life of a responsible adult. As for the comparison with Rhaegar, that's hard to say since we never actually see the guy. Second-hand accounts paint him as one of the best persons ever, but his actual actions, well that's another story. Surely he was a more sensitive and learned man than Robert, that much we can say. But that's not a very high a bar, is it?
  9. We don't actually know that this is what happened at Harrenhall, nor do we know this was the argument advanced even if it was. Nor does it mean that people would actually rise up against Aerys just for that, because in the end nobody did. The Starks rose up because their Lord and his heir were murdered and then their current Lord was threatened. The Stormlands rose up because their Lord was threatened. The Vale rose up because Jon had ties to the two above families and disobeyed a direct order from his king and so was backed into a corner, and the Riverlands only rose up later on when Hoster got good marriages out of the deal. And Tywin only moved in for the kill when the game was already over and done. The madness alone was not a trigger, Aerys's actions and the political overtures of the rebels were. If Aerys stays in his keep to cut himself on the IT and rape his wife on the occasion, no one is going to form an armed rebellion to stop him, because none of the powerful Lords have a reason to care so long as they're left to their own devices.
  10. I may have worded it hastily, but my point is that despite his well-known mental state, Aerys's actions up to this moment are not enough to trigger any serious armed uprising against him, not until he starts killing Lords. So it's not a solid argument Rhaegar can make in favor of overthrowing his father. Especially since his own behavior in this whole affair is suspect at best from any observer's eye.
  11. The rest of your second paragraph makes your quotes a bit moot, I find, Yeah, people knew Aerys was off his rocker. And they couldn't care less so long as they profited from it, or weren't harmed by it. Aerys is a (mostly) known quantity, he's capricious and unhinged but his actual actions haven't harmed the power and interests of many important people. Aerys's madness only started being a serious problem (and even then, not to everyone) when he started to kill his vassals without reason. Rhaegar would be the one trying to up-end this broadly beneficial status quo in favor of a guy who's willing to throw his marriage, father and liege lord to the dogs if it gets him the hot chick he wants. And I can only imagine the reaction from the Lords if Rhaegar ever tries to explain the real reason why he wants Lyanna. Think most people would still prefer King Scab to King Bangs-Teens-For-Prophecy.
  12. What proof does Rhaegar have? That Aerys acted unhinged a few times? That's hardly enough to make the great Lords reach for their swords. If the apparent extent of Aerys's madness is being unkempt and having an attitude, no one is going to lift a finger to stop him. They were spurred into action because the King killed a Lord and called for the heads of two others; no one is going to care if he has odd habits. So Rhaegar's only argument becomes ''I want to bang this girl''. Which is not going to impress anyone but (maybe, possibly, not even sure) Rickard. And casts serious doubts as to how reliable an ally and how good of a King Rhaegar will be, if he's willing to toss aside his marriage and plunge the realm into civil war for little apparent reasons beyond lust for a 15 years old. The more I think about it, the more I think this is a Cercei-tier bad plan.
  13. This assumes Rickard goes through with allying with Rhaegar. And assumes Hoster and Jon still want a piece of this extremely risky alliance, without the incentive of ''the King really is bonkers and is executing his Lords''. And even IF that happens (which, I stress, is a big if) you're still left with a weaker alliance than Robert and Ned had, with one more enemy since the Martells are far more likely to fight against the one that wants to depose Elia. So the only course of action is, again, civil war, one that's even riskier than Robert's and has no further foundation than ''I want to bang this girl, oh and my dad is kind of unhinged sometimes''. And neither Tywin nor the Reach backed Robert during most of the Rebellion, when the rebels had a bigger chance to win than Rhagar does. To say nothing of the fact Aerys has Rhaegar's family. So unless James Targaryan 007 manages to save them from under Aerys's nose, Ray-Man is putting even more at risk with open defiance, unless one assumes he's callous enough to just throw away their lives which seems very unlikely to me. If that is Rhaegar's plan, it's a pretty shitty plan if you ask me. So yeah, it is close to a political suicide. So his idea is still stupid. His only hope at a coup is a quiet one, and that hope vanished after Harrenhall if it was ever there.
  14. Who's going to support his bid to overthrow Aerys? First, Rhaegar won't marry any noble-born lady, being already taken, so that's already a vital bargaining chip he throws into the garbage bin. The Martells are right out for obvious reasons. Tywin doesn't gain anything apart from getting back at Aerys (which is tempting for him, but not enough to spur him into action for sure, as we saw how late he joins the bandwagon in the Rebellion). The Tyrells do nothing without adequate compensation, and Rhaegar cannot offer much. The Tullys are loyalists so they could go either way, but will likely back up the legimimate King. The Vale is an unknown, but like the Tyrells will want something in return. The North might support Rhaegar, and that's not guaranteed. So one region might support one, one definitely won't, another is highly unlikely to to, and the rest will require either a damn good reason, or something in return. Rhaegar has none of these things on hand. So any contestation of Aerys's authority is going to be extremely hazardous and unlikely to even get off the ground. And even if it does get off the ground, Ray-Man is highly, highly likely to cause a civil war. Because he loves/ thinks he needs to impregnate a 15 years old girl. That supposed to make me feel better about the guy?
  15. 1) Rhaegar was not King. 2) The entire Rebellion kind of puts a damper on this perspective that the King does as he pleases, doesn't it?