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  1. WHAT??? When he was stabbed he was the acting King beyond the Wall, or rater the King at the Wall. Val, Tormund and lesser ones had shown him fealty. And he was about to command a wildling host. Among the wildlings, that's a king. R stole L, and he wanted her.
  2. Mostly agreed. I've just tried to draw parallels between two arcs. That's the Grrm way, actually. If Aegon is in Asshai, somebody had to take him there, a little child can't flee as that by his own. The main suspect is Ashara, while Quaithe comes from there, so it's frequently thought it's the same person. No real evidence, anyhow. Whoever it were, there should be someone else, just in case. And Marwin had been in Asshai, who knows? As for Tom, or Lem, you can leave them aside as well. Tom is a singer, as Daeron was. Lem was to Rhaegar as Sam was to Aemon, more or less. It could make sense, but it's not that important. Just passing time while TWOW is released.
  3. @Lady Blizzardborn "Truth", dragons,...That's Aegon! Mance's son was in danger, so he was taken away by some woman acquainted to him, a Targaryen maester, a student, like the maester's "squire", and a singer. A short and assorted company. It seems a hint that some years before, Rhaegar's son (a Targaryen) was in danger and he was taken away by a maester (Marwin), probably a woman (Quaite, o is she Ashara?), maybe some others. Tom O'Sevens and Lem could be in, a bard and a squire. I'm assuming Lem is Richard Lonmouth, I don't remember if he had been knighted. It could work without this couple, anyhow. Grrm reminds us Asshai frequently, as to highlight its meaning. There must be something important there.
  4. He could keep his oath and father no children. Besides, can reborn people father anything? I think to remember that somewhere it's stated than Jon Snow is more Stark than the other Ned's sons, who happen to be rather Tully. Still, they bear the Stark name and heraldry. On other thoughts, when we left him he was acting as the (late?) king of the wildlings. According to wildling laws and customs, when a man steals a woman, that's as good as marry her, what makes him a legal son in his new gotten "kingdom". Not that the wildlings care much about it, I guess. Grrm hasn't found fit to give us much details of wildling uses, like wedding ceremonies, divorce or heritage, I couldn't even tell if they have houses names or just nicknames recalling their deeds or skills, like Bael the Bard, a peculiar name for a king beyond the Wall. He has been more explicit with their strange and rather primitive ways of mating, but this doesn't add much light to the question. In sum, I don't think Jon's wildling followers would object his making himself whatever, even though they might as well decide to dub him something else. Those wildlins are unruly.
  5. Legality is not what it used to be, neither death If Middle Age is a reference, if there wasn't a son of age, the legal heir is that whom most nobles consider fit to be the legal heir. It normally coincides with the interests of the said nobles. That stated, the factual heir IMO is Aegon, son of Rhaegar. Let's see why. He clearly comes before Jon, but Dany could argue this. My best guess is they'll find a compromise. Jon is more wildling than southron, he doesn't belong to KL. Sansa, instead, belongs to KL since the very moment she yielded Lady, She'll marry Aegon and will gladly handle the task of rebuilding WF to whomever Stark , or half-Stark who agrees to it. I don't think she'll name Theon as regent, anyway. Daenerys is no queen, she's a khaleesi. Period. Or shall I explain better? She won't like Westeros and won't stomach Jon. She will go back to the Sea of Grass asap, to ride about with a brawny khal who gives her what she needs. You know, I think some characters are inspired from well known songs: You can't always get what you want, but if you try, sometimes, you just might find you get what you need. That's Dany. After hiding so long in sodding Asshai, poor Aegon must be so pissed off as to agree with all but anything he must, sitting the IT, marrying Sansa, naming LF as Hand...
  6. What puzzles you is the nature of his game He seems to aim riches, power and revenge. While the road is the same for any, it's hard to tell what's the goal and what's the means, if it's possible at any time. As the story is left, he has gathered a fortune by selling food, he has dealt painful blows to Starks and Tullys, he can look down on many who once put him down, and on paper he's among the few most powerful men in Westeros: Lord of Harrenhall, Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, Lord Protector of the Vale,... In sum, he's rich, he has taken revenge and, if he gets real grip of his nominal holdings, he'll be very, very powerful. The problem is, it'll leave us without knowing what he really cared for. Btw, he's ever nearer to reach the goal. I remember the books started with a junior son of Bronze Yohn trying to make a career at the Night Watch. It seems it was that or the Second Sons, more so since some other Vale's scion was with Renly. Now, LF has a few vacant jobs at the Riverlands that the Vale's second sons can apply for, and the money to sustain them while that day comes. Given that the Vale was not been at war, they only have to take what LF will tell to, with the troops their fathers will lend them. I'd say he'll first let the Vale's lords imagine that Cersei had Jon Arryn poisoned. Then, he'll serve them glib words, lies, golden Arbor, and many promises. When the day comes to honour the latter, with the lords angry with Freys and Lannisters, he has ways to get it. For instance, settling at HH, and claiming Darry to dispose of. But that's another story.
  7. Sorry, busy lately @Colonel GreenYou're arguing some ideas I never meant. I put the blame mostly at my door, I'll try to be clearer. Some have raised the interesting point of who took advantage from Joff's dead. Sticking to LF's terms, there are two wannabe players, actually powerful pieces: Tyrrells and Lannisters. The Tyrells seem to work as a team. While they let Mace think himself a star, the siblings act at unison, helped by their mother and directed by their granma. They didn't like Margaery to be wed to some kind of monster. On the Lannister side, Tywin holds the reins. He sorely has to accept that Cersei has spoiled Joff, and he can't be recovered, but Tommen can still be taught. Moreover, Joff wanted to act the king right away, while Tommen gave Tywin some years of full command, chiefly after getting rid of Cersei. So, both players win. They might have theirs differences, but they can also find some apaceof common interests: the removed Joff as they did Stannis. Some argue that Tywin would never allow this, on the grounds of his House's pride. I concede it's a good objection but still I think Joff made more harm than good to the Lannisters. Facing the dilemma of maiming the rotten limb to save the body, what would Tywin do? My take is that, while it could be good for House Lannister, personal feelings prevailed. That is, Tyrion didn't lie when he said he'd killed Joff, even though it's pretty clear that he wasn't in the murdering plot: he pronounced Joff's death sentence when he dubbed him Aerys III immediately after he had humiliated Tywin in public. All this leads us to the real player, the middleman, LF. Did he get a direct gain by killing Joff? Being clear, NO WAY. Instead, he prepared the murder because he was charged the task. Keep in mind that he was actually rewarded with all that Tyrion had offered him as a bait, his services to T&L can't be a doggone thing. In fact, he tells Sansa, at least partially. He recognizes that Joff suited him, but sometimes you have to do things to confuse your enemies. In fact, Joff would have created an unsustainable situation at KL, ending the T&L alliance, but LF had to make believe his "masters" that he was still their loyal and efficient "servant". He had NO reason to help the Tyrells remove Joff against Tywin's will. He'd be much better off letting the Tyrells on their own, and helping Tywin to find out who did it. As for taking Sansa away, he's sure to make up some other way to do it, it's LF, no jackanappes. So, if LF prepared the details of the murder if LF didn't act on his own direct interest if LF didn't help the Tyrells against Tywin, forcibly LF was acting under command of T&L. qed. Eta. LF tells more. He comments that he thought Cersei would screw it, but not so quickly. It leaves untold that Joff would. On the contrary, once Joff's out, LF might guess that Cersei would try to find a culprit amongst Tyrion and the Tyrells, who were sitting together, but he didn't have the least clue to guess that Tyrion would kill Tywin, Kevan would leave, Cersei would prevail, sort of, and so on, even though the Kettleblacks were still helping Cersei to make her doom. In sum, LF worked against the IT and Joffrey was the worst king to be found, he had no personal interest in removing him, but all the opposite. But still he did it, why? Isn't it obvious?
  8. @Lord Varys @Colonel Green @John Suburbs Of course, all evidences are circumstantial. There's never plainly stated that Tywin knew about Joff's murder, but I think some details point to it. It's a matter of risk and reward, and attitudes. There are two parties cooperating, and a middleman, and everything seems to go all right, and suddenly the chief hindrance to them happens to disappear. Your explanation, if I've caught it, is that one of the parties, with the help of the middleman, kills the other party's grandson without his knowing. Then, the latter makes up evidences against his own son, instead of looking hard for the real culprit. Excuse me, but I can't buy into it. The Tyrells don't like Joff marry Margaery, but killing him is too risky to my taste. LF has no reason at all, rather the opposite, and GRRM makes it clear when Sansa asks him on the matter. His answer is ludicrous. At the wedding, Tywin summos Joff at the precise moment to allow his poisoning, and in this series nothing is casual. Then Tywin never seems to think Joff is choking with a morsel of something, he seems to know it's venom and, risking to repeat myself, in this series nothing is casual. Ans then, Shae. It's Cersei who's presenting the witnesses, but she thought Tyrion's whore was Alayaya. Instead, Shae appears afterwards in Tywin's bed. Rereading the scene when Ramsay orders Reek to spy on Roose Bolton, it reminded me Shae. She's not depicted as a common camp follower, and all we know about her is what Bronn tells, a sellsword word. I guess she was sent by Tywin, as Pod Payne was, and she always was his pawn. You can be more or less convinced by the above written, but please answer this little question: why should Tywin make up evidences against Tyrion? Or, alternatively, try to find a reason for Tywin taking Tyrion's whore, specially after her public show in the trial.
  9. @Colonel Green @John Suburbs At least you seem to recognize there was something going between Tywin and the Tyrells, and LF was the barterer of the deal. A deal means not Tywin's will, but an agreement, so we'll see how it could have gone. The Tyrells had shown most clearly that they wanted Margaery to be the queen. Yet, they mistrusted Joff's brutality, as they showed when asking Sansa on the matter. Tywin's stand is unsustainable. He'd been defeated by Robb in the Riverlands, and then the Westlands were under attack. Jaime is a prisoner. Stannis is about to take KL. He deadly needs the Tyrells' army, that btw seem to be the strongest. In short, he's bound to concede anything it's asked from him. That or death. LF played a great part in the alignment of both parties' interests, and he's lavishly rewarded. (Most curiously, he perceived point by point what Tyrion had offered him. Maybe the Lannisters always pay their debts, so Tywin paid Tyrion's, but it might deserve a thought, or even another thread.) Kevan was never involved. Now, this is a novel, and the author concious and repeatedly decides to leave details untold. Sometimes he hints at something and we readers must deduce what it is, that's how this game is played. I'll offer my interpretation of this facts, and obviously you're free to dissent. The deal is between Lannisters and the Tyrells, but the middleman was LF, and he's sure to have bent the pitch in his own favour. I'd say he left Sansa out of the deal on purpose, so that both parties would pursue her, to keep them busy. (This is an interesting topic, but I don't think it has much to do with Joff's murder.) Somehow, the Tyrells knew about Joff's ways, and I guess LF didn't take much effort to sweeten it. Joff was a hinder to everybody. Tywin meant to rule as the Hand, and the Tyrells through Margaery's influence on the king. Joff spoiled it all, but Tommen allowed it, at least for a good while. Remember, Lannisters can have a feeble IT, but it's the Tyrells who hold the trump card. I guess the latter, probably encouraged by LF, brought forth the substitution of Joff by Tommen since the very beginning, as an eventuality if he didn't change for the better. Overwhelmed by the facts, Tywin had to concede. Two little side questions. LF expected this murder would have serious consequences in the future, and he put himself out of reach. But he'd surely think it'd end in quarrel between Lannisters and Tyrells, not in Lannister's self destruction. He always thrive in chaos. And, should Tommen have dead, Tywin could accomplish his secret dream, putting his father on the IT. All Jaime had to do was resign the white cloak and marry Margaery. Nobody would dare object. Jaime might not agree, but Tywin did want.
  10. He did it. IIRC, he sent Kevan with the offer of sending him to the Wall. As I've been recalled, this is about how Tywin felt about Joff's death. Never forget those are the feelings of a character in a book, so no one can be expected to be completely accurate. Let's hope GRRM depicted it all properly. Of course, Tywin being involved would change everything. Well, going to the matter, let's see what happened, under what circumstances, whit what outcome, and then try to develop a coherent explanation. The facts are, Joff was murdered in his wedding, in the presence of everybody that counts. Tywin witnesses his death with a strange calm, even for a person like him. Cersei, by contrast, reacted as hysterically as it'd be expected, and immediately accused Tyrion. The circumstances. Tywin was the Hand of the King and the king had been murdered at his sight. His daughter charged his son for the murder. He depended on the Tyrells to sustain the the realm. In fact, LF had bartered a deal among Tyrells and Lannisters that involved Joff marrying Margaery, even though the former were most reluctant on his future behaviour. He searched an alliance with the Dornish with whom he had a blood debt. The aftermath. Cersei presented the case against Tyrion very convincingly. Tywin seems involved in the making of false evidences through Shae. Tywin maintained the contact with Tyrion through Kevan. Tyrion called for a trial by combat and lost. Otoh, it seems rather obvious that AT LEAST the Tyrells and LF had been cooperating in Jof's murder since long ago. In fact, Dontos gave Sansa the hair net with scarce difference of Tywin rewarding LF with all that Tyrion had promised him. The question is, had thay left their parter aside? If so, Why should Tywin do what was needed in the wedding? Moreover, why should he cooperate in making up false evidences against Tyrion? That's not like Tywin, If he was sure that Tyrion did it, he didn't need any false evidence, and if he didn't think it was Tyrion, he should be eager to find out the culprit and take a harsh revenge,... unless he knew who had been, and he was one of them. If he'd thought Tyrion was guilty, I wonder if he'd been too willing to spare his life. On the contrary, Kevan not been aware, or Tywin not visiting Tyrion to feign neutrality, is no more that it should be expected from him. My take is that the Tyrells had agreed a deal, provided Joff lived up to it. In fact, Tywin showed an interest in straighten up Joff that it's doubtful he had with his own children, until he had to give up. And take into account that Tyrell's army is the strongest ant it's over there, breaking the deal is not an option.
  11. Above all, I think all of you seem to be skipping the fundamental question of the weapon. Joff was poisoned with "strangler", that was introduced to the wedding on Sansa's hair, through a net that Dontos had given her. And it was LF who provided Dontos with the hair net. Consequently, for Tyrion to be guilty of killing Joff, he should had acted together with LF. Simply put, no way. First suspect accomplice, LF The venom was served in a chalice given to Joff by Mace Tyrell, so that Joff's cup was unmistakable. Margaery knew that she could drink from his cup until while he hadn't visited her family. Second suspect accomplice, say Tyrells, some of them. The chance to lure Joff near the Tyrells was given by the dwarves' show. Both Tyrion and Joff were well drunk and the lived up to the expectations. And then, no other that Tywin, had the pie brought in and summoned Joffrey in a way that he just couldn't refuse. He lost attention for his uncle and went to the pie. Meanwhile, he had to leave his purposely cumbersome chalice unattended so that the Tyrells could put the venom in it. Third suspect accomplice, Tywin LF had bartered a deal among Tywin and the Tyrells to fall on Stannis. Some of the clauses can be guessed, but not all. Removing Joff could be one of those. Tywin was strangely calmed when Joff died, and he never thought he was chocking with a morsel of food: he knew what was happening.
  12. IIRC: Timet danaos ut donnae ferentes Other donors but Joff's family are showing their own strength, sometimes to the point of a veiled threat. Jalabhar is a skilled archer, as most Summer Islanders. Marbrand is a knight, then commander of the Golden Cloaks. Rowan has his own army, Redwin has his fleet. Their taking this side ore another can swing the forces. Mace gives the chalice where the poison will be placed, it's part of the plot. Oberyn's is a not so subtle threat. And now, his family Cersei is willing to protect him, the fact that she fails makes no difference. Tywin and Kevan show him the king's way: wield the sword of power, ride the horse, lead, don't stay aside. Even Tyrion shows him that a good king must be wise, cultivated. But Joff's reaction is willingly using his lent power to destroy ignored knowledge, showing his cruelty and cowardice. I guess this was the last nail on his chest, the one that made Tywin give up.
  13. @Lost Melnibonean I'm not sure at all that Sansa will kill LF, above all because it's against her own interest. At least not while he's her best (only?) supporter. I can't recall where, but it's said in the books that it's not a strong one who will prevail, but someone nimble, shrewd. Otoh, Nimble Dick didn't fare too well. We could say that the winner has to be nimble, but still anyone can die. Last but not least, what's in a name? Bael picked the Stark girl and left a blue rose. Will LF be bael-ish? How are the stakes for Hand Petyr?
  14. There's a detail I don't think is been taken into account properly. Most northern families had relatives taken hostages by the Freys when the Red Wedding. Even though Jamie had instructed the Frey heir to release them, it's not known where many of those hostages are at the time of the Battle of the Ice. They have to feign friendship, but I don't think there's much love for the Freys in the North. Rather, if a Northerman had the chance to make a Frey disappear without a clue or a witness, I'd say he'll take it, just in case. And I can't forget the fear in Roose Bolton's eyes. He's seeing it coming.