Universal Sword Donor

Given that Aegon and Argilac had fought on the same side in the war against Volantis and he's the last remaining dragonlord in the world, its fairly safe to assume that Argilac would be aware of his marital status. He was aware of Orys' alleged bastardry, after all. The proposed alliance is actually not a bad one on paper, it is just a matter of which land was involved. It was definitely driven by desperation but the counter proposal -- basically "give me the kingswood and massey's hook -- " was pretty fair. Argilac didn't have an heir outside of his daughter anyway, so the land would be controlled by Aegon either way, once he passed on. Given that the options of marriage for his daughter were likely limited to his bannermen -- he hated dornishmen and reachmen while the ironborn were taking his land -- he wasn't going to get a better offer that would help defend his lands. Orys was a noted commander and warrior at this point and the best friend of the only remaining dragonlord in the world. Argilac made a mistake, not Aegon.

It would be pretty safe to assume he knew Aegon was married. They both fought in the alliance against Volantis during the century of blood. He’d be relatively foolish not to keep tabs on an erstwhile ally who has the only three dragons left in the world. After all he did “know” that Orys was a targ bastard. The third wife play might have been a Hail Mary but it would have a reasonable chance at working. It is a lot of land for a negligible price. Aegon offering his brother as an alternative was a pretty good value that still would have brought Aegon to the table. Argilac chose poorly.

Ok let’s do this scenario. Each house in the reach is relocated to the north and only house Bolton is in the reach. Each castle is given a boy roose Bolton and a weirwood with the optional abacus attachment. they are also each left handed. who wins

The only small scale feuds we see have individual freeriders not small companies. And those smal companies for hire are going to protect merchants against what? Other small bands of armed soldiers who don’t have jobs or income? there’s a reason we hear and read of hedge knights and similar but not sell sword companies in Westeros.

If they are too large for a single lord, they are large enough for the crown to care about. Unemployable groups of armed men with no source of income are going to be an issue for the countryside. See Free Companies in France in the 1400s. Conversely, if they are small enough for a lord to hire but are not hired -- there's really not a sustainable business for groups of warriors in Westeros -- you just have a bunch of smaller armed bands with no source of income. At that point they are going to become highwaymen / brigands / what have you in the vein of the Kingswood Brotherhood. The local lord will need to tamp down on that. Either way it's not really conducive for even small groups of freeriders / mercenaries in Westeros to work unless the crown has been destabilized to a significant extent. Even then it's short term

Paraphrasing Luwin, a mounted man-at-arms is interchangeable with knight as far as the north is concerned. More importantly Lord Karstark and his men are looped into this discussion, so we assume it applies to both the fighting and governance aspect. Otherwise they would not be lords. the rest honor the old gods, and name no knights ... but those lords and their sons and sworn swords are no less fierce or loyal or honorable. Maester Luwin sighed. "Three hundred, perhaps four … among three thousand armored lances who are not knights." "Lord Karstark is the last," Bran said thoughtfully. "Robb will feast him tonight." And given what we know of Manderly's holdings -- a dozen petty lords and a hundred landed knights -- it would defy common sense to not take that into consideration when looking at the hierarchy of titles in the north, including the principal bannermen, masterly houses, landed knights, and petty lords.

I mean, yeah, that's explicitly laid out in ACoK. Balon has been waiting since RR and rebuilding the Iron Fleet

The issue is they can't. Ignoring the major issue that the ships from Essos would be sailing against any current, let alone a fast and deep current, the tumblestone isn't accessible from the west coast of Westeros as it starts high in the western hills

He had pirates reave there as a distraction because the Iron Fleet was going to block the route north at Moat Cailin. You are to harry the Stony Shore, raiding the fishing villages and sinking any ships you chance to meet. It may be that you will draw some of the northern lords out from behind their stone walls. Lord Balon had let no word of the hosting escape the Iron Islands, and Theon's bloody work along the Stony Shore would be put down to sea raiders out for plunder. The northmen would not realize their true peril, not until the hammers fell on Deepwood Motte and Moat Cailin. Which reinforces he wasn't attacking Stoney Shore to conquer. He was doing it to weaken the northern forces left because the IB generally don't do siege warfare (effectively). He *did* send Asha to conquer Deepwood Motte, so we know that has a population center and the ability to resist. Deepwood Motte with it's normal garrison wouldn't have held out against 1000 IB who besiege the castle in a surprise march. Torrhen's square can and did hold out against IB siege only to lose after Rodrik brilliantly strips the castle of its war time, theoretically diminished, to retake Winterfell, where he left a doughty force to fend off 20 guys with gappling hooks*. This doesn't even begin to address the historical nature of the IB occupation of large parts of the north which were under WF's protection in times of peace. I can't and won't argue the point the west coast of The North is vastly underpopulated. That's always been a bit of an outlier; however the war and its levies marching are not why those particular parts of the north are vulnerable to a large attacking army. *Ser Rodrik is an *awful* commander and an even worse choice as castellan of WF.

Torrhen stark took at least 50% more men (30k vs 18-20k) south to the trident. As to the Stony Shore, there really isn't much there. It's very thinly populated to the point where the closest population center is probably Torrhen's Square. the northmen will cede us Sea Dragon Point and all the Stony Shore. Those lands are thinly peopled, yet ten times larger than all the isles put together. There is barely anyone to raid and no one to respond close by. We see Tallhart men respond to the reaving as well as march to WF. Even if you stick someone there to fill the relative power vacuum, there aren't enough resources to sustain a denser population.

He's not a human chimera.

Then you have the Jaime Lannister conundrum of vows: They are bound not to interfere in the politics of the south but they are bound to defend the realm of men. So if it were an external threat, say the Triarchy or Braavos invading, then it would well make sense to appoint him Hand and general of the realm's armies. If it's not external, both history of the NW and their vow would prevent them from interfering. Hoare's brother didn't march south when HH was burned. Qorgyle didn't chevauchee in the north when Dorne sent men to the trident. Aemon remained at the wall while his family fell apart and lost RR.

The CotF are in the far north. Tywin's own father was rescued from lions near Lannisport and that sprouted house Clegane. Given that Ghost would likely be torn apart by the boar at the wall, I don't think one direwolve would fare especially well against a lion. Their strength is in the pack; the same could be said for the lion.

I'd imagine at least 8 of the entrants will be a part of the Winged Guard. But it would be rather funny if Ser Lyn was appointed. He's probably one of the most skilled fighters there, by reputation if not entirely by resume.

He's forced to dose the kid against his will and then, when delivering an ultimatum, the response we get is "We'll see what your boss says." Colemon is bartering with people far more powerful than him. And more to the point, she doesn't give any option of back talk. She immediately leaves the room he's in and tells herself she and LF have larger concerns than the boy in the same chapter that LF tells her to be careful around Myranda Royce, which she repeats to herself multiple times. She clearly thinks the longer term effects on SR are worth the short term safety for herself.

He says he'd lose 5 men for every crow if he were dumb enough to attack it. There's no water up top so just holding the brook against the ranging party would likely get them to surrender or die forcing their way out. Holing up there instead of marching back to the Wall was a bad idea. Mance even says as much in the same conversation: “That old man?” Harma’s tone said she did not believe it. “He came himself? Then who commands at Castle Black?” “Bowen Marsh.” This time Jon answered at once. You must not balk, whatever is asked of you. Mance laughed. “If so, our war is won. Bowen knows a deal more about counting swords than he’s ever known about using them.” [...] “My Lord of Bones, keep the column moving at all costs. If we reach the Wall before Mormont, we’ve won.”

And that nuance rendered moot when she tells him to administer more later that night or soon thereafter.

Agreed. Normally someone like the First Ranger leading a ranging this large would be fine. We see a comparable scenario where Marsh leads 100 brothers to fight the Weeper. But he's gone along with Sir Waymar, so going in force to find the Wildlings and / or the missing rangers is a solid idea, if not amazingly executed (too many men, bad personnel decisions). There are few people he trusts to lead -- he said as much to Tyrion and Jon -- and he's perfectly qualified to do so. Everything was fine until he decided to fortify the Fist instead of march back to the wall, which is much easier to defend and doesn't risk losing 30%-50% of the NW fighting men*. * Based on how the Wildlings assaulted the actual Wall, the fist of the first men would have fallen rather quickly and the watch would have been slaughtered / captured to a man.

The exact quotes are a page or two back but once in the eyrie for the descent and then two more at gates of the moon (?) for the feast and when he meets his banner man. Then when the maester tells her no more for at least six months she says “we’ll see what my dad says” and drops the mic.

She doesn't order higher doses, but she does order additional doses with the implication there will probably be more. So with the sweet sleep not leaving the flesh, it will have a more detrimental effect.

She also sees Bloodraven / Bran in her visions and asks if they are creatures of the Great Other A wooden face, corpse white. Was this the enemy? A thousand red eyes floated in the rising flames. He sees me. Beside him, a boy with a wolf's face threw back his head and howled.

Are you talking to anyone in specific, in general, or the poster immediately preceding you?

At this point I am going to have to ask if you've ready literally any significant part of what I've written in the thread. It doesn't appear to be the case.

The first time we see it introduced is by the maester to LF in front of her: “Sweets. Cakes and pies, jams and jellies, honey on the comb. Perhaps a pinch of sweetsleep in his milk, have you tried that? Just a pinch, to calm him and stop his wretched shaking.” “A pinch?” The apple in the maester’s throat moved up and down as he swallowed. “One small pinch . . . perhaps, perhaps. Not too much, and not too often, yes, I might try . . .” Then Colemon asks about the bleeding nose and shaking, repeats it doesn't leave the flesh, and asks again about the bleeding nose before saying he'll do it twice more. “It was too soon. My lady, you do not understand. As I’ve told the Lord Protector, a pinch of sweetsleep will prevent the shaking, but it does not leave the flesh, and in time . . .” “I try, my lady, yet his fits grow ever more violent, and his blood is so thin I dare not leech him any more. Sweetsleep . . . you are certain he was not bleeding from the nose? Very well.” They paused at the foot of the stairs. “But this must be the last. For half a year, or longer.” If her POV more or less ended at this point, I would be inclined to agree with you. However it doesn't. She self monologues about what was best for SR isn't what's best for the Lord of the Vale (also him). Then she explicitly says they have larger concerns than SR and all but tells Colemon he'll continue to dose sweet sleep as LF deems fit. “You had best take that up with the Lord Protector.” She pushed through the door and crossed the yard. Colemon only wanted the best for his charge, Alayne knew, but what was best for Robert the boy and what was best for Lord Arryn were not always the same. Petyr had said as much, and it was true. Maester Colemon cares only for the boy, though. Father and I have larger concerns.” At this point she's been indirectly told it's poisonous, directly told it's poisonous, and pushed for additional doses against the insistence and advice of the "doctor." So again, she very well knows she's poisoning him but it's a lesser concern against the governance of the Vale, disabusing notions of rebellion, and somehow avoiding the headsman's axe via treason against the IT. One can debate how far she's willing to go to protect herself, but given her mimicking of and adherence to LF -- the man who watched her father be arrested and then alter beheaded because he turned down LF, the man who murdered Ser Dontos for aiding him -- and the fact she considers poisoning SR the lesser concern, she absolutely would poison him to save herself, maybe even LF.

No her POV shows that she knows exactly what is happening w the sweet sleep.