John Suburbs

You don't plot a regicide and leave the most crucial moment to chance. That's absurd. This "precise moment" came about completely by chance. If none of the things that led up to this moment happened, how much longer was she going to wait? It's getting late. Soon comes the bedding, and then what does she do? And at this point, Joffrey is not going to be eating anything more, save for his own pie. So now she has to poison him using the very chalice that the Tyrells provided in the first place, and is to be shared with Margaery at important events like the pie-cutting -- which in fact did happen. Do you honestly think Lady Olenna is that great a fool as to take that chance? If so, I have a lovely manse in old Valyria I would dearly love to sell you. Lol, and after prodding him to drink wine, and assuming that he will drink first, what is she supposed to do for the next 30 seconds or so until he starts choking? Hum a little tune, do a little dance, fake an epileptic seizure? No matter what she does, she either dies or becomes the prime suspect in his murder, not Tyrion. How could anyone claim he was anywhere near the chalice if it sat at Joffrey's place at the table the whole time? Did he sneak up there unnoticed by everyone at the table but spotted by someone across the room? In what way could Olenna prod Tyrion to go anywhere near it? Sorry, but this is utter nonsense. First, this improvisation is Lady Olenna's, not Littlefinger's. She is the one taking all these risks while he is safe and sound out on his boat waiting to collect his prize, or split to Braavos should anything go wrong with her "improvisations." Second, Petyr improvises when major events disrupt broad, strategic goals, not highly specific actions that lead to his death if they go wrong. And note that nothing else in this plan is improvised: the note, the initial contact with Dontos, the hairnet, the swiping of the crystal . . . It was all carefully choreographed. Except for the actual poisoning? Nope, sorry. The pie, however, leaves virtually anything to chance. She knows exactly where it will be at the exact the right moment, and she even has a high probability of knowing where he will take his one and only bite: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison. That's the key difference between the two: the wine needed an entire sequence of unpredictable events in order to succeed, while the pie only needed one unpredictable (wildly unpredictable), event to fail. And even then, it was not a total failure.

No, she doesn't say We are leaving, she says I am leaving. She knows perfectly well that the men are not going to be off to war the day after tomorrow, just as she knows that Tyrion is not going to lead a host. So Olenna is not lying. She does want Sansa to come visit Highgarden, at some point, when the time is right and the coast is clear. Sansa is not going to be in King's Landing for an extended period of time. She is leaving, that night. She would not be doing this, and risking not only her life but the lives of her entire family, if this was not the case. Of course that's absurd. Dontos wouldn't come within a hundred yards of Lady Olenna. Petyr told her where the poison would be and how to get it, after it became clear that Olenna would do the job -- for her own reasons, not his. If Olenna was in on this all the way back in Highgarden, then there is no reason for the hairnet at all -- just find some convenient dead drop somewhere. And why would she even trust Petyr after he lied so badly about Joffrey? Sorry, but the only way any of this works out is if Olenna did not agree to become the poisoner until after Sansa had married Tyrion. Sorry, you've got it all backward. If there is no reason for Olenna to go through the with poisoning, then why is she in on this plot all the back at Highgarden? What was her reason back then? And do you honestly think that Petyr is fool enough to invite Lady O into this plot unless he is absolutely sure she is going to go through with it? There is no way he can know this way back then, but he is certain of it after Sansa's wedding -- again, because her reasons for killing Tyrion are stronger than his own. I don't think it's accurate to say he hated Tyrion. If anything, he feared him, especially now that he is Master of Coin. It does matter because it blows your whole rationale for Petyr's actions out of the water. He did not rat out the plan because Sansa's marriage might be delayed. There was no marriage at that point. He ratted out the plan to force Lady Olenna's hand -- now she has no choice but to be the poisoner other than to sit back and let Tywin take the north. Her only motivation is not to wed Sansa to Willas. Her motivation is to preserve her house, her realm and her people from the mad dog tyrant who grinds rival houses into the dirt even after he professes his loyalty to them. Look at his record: Reynes, Tarbecks, Targaryens, Starks, Tullys, Darrys, . . . This is what she fears: the Reach burned to ashes, tens of thousands of smallfolk slaughtered and left rotting in the mud, Highgarden razed to the ground, her entire family, even the little children, murdered in cold blood, her line extinguished, forever. Only killing Tyrion can turn the tide on Tywin's relentless march to complete domination over the Reach. Marrying her to Willas is out of reach at this point, and both she and Petyr know this. Of course she would. Petyr has his own motivations for killing Tyrion, namely, his head remaining on his shoulders. And the simple fact is that she is his pawn. She has no choice. Neither of them do. That's the only way a plot like this can succeed, when both parties suffer supreme consequences in failure or betrayal. There is absolutely no reason to think Olenna provided the poison. A rich lady like her, was this her one and only crystal? Cressen had six. So this whole theory is untenable. If Olenna is the poisoner and she has the poison all along, there is no reason to give it to anyone and risk being double-crossed.

What other ways? At this point in the feast, nobody is eating anything, so the only other way is the chalice, or his pie. All of Joffrey's food is being served at his place at the center of the high table, right next to Cersei and Tywin. If Margaery is supposed to be prodding Joffrey in the right direction, why is she calling him back to share a toast with the wine that has just been poisoned? So no, after setting up all of this -- Dontos, the poison, the hairnet, the joust . . . -- it is inconceivable that when it comes to the most crucial point, actually getting the poison into Joffrey and no one else, the plan was for Olenna to just wing it, and hope against hope that somehow it will all fall on Tyrion even if he was nowhere near Joffrey the whole time.

Well, first, I checked, and I don't see any mention of bringing Sansa to Highgarden the day after the wedding. Just "soon. When you come to Highgarden after Joffrey and I are wed. My grandmother will take you." Then at the wedding, Olenna says she will be leaving "day after next." But everything has changed by then. The Willas plan was bust and now Olenna is plotting to kill Tyrion. She has no hope of getting Sansa out of the keep under normal circumstances, let alone following the sudden death of her husband. Sorry, but that's the fact. So no, the whole point of poisoning Tyrion was not to make Sansa a Tyrell, but to keep Tywin from getting the north. That's the real prize here. This is why Olenna had to be in on the escape plan, because otherwise Sansa would eventually be married off to another Lannister and the whole effort would be moot. Olenna has absolutely no hope of sneaking Sansa out herself, only Petyr can do that. And at this point it's better for him to have her than Tywin. Tywin can most certainly prevent the sudden removal of Tyrion's wife the day after his sudden and suspicious death. She is in mourning and is a prime suspect, and that suspicion will only fall on Olenna if she tries to do what she did before: bring her to Highgarden for a quickie marriage to Willas. So the whole question of insulting Mace is off the table now. Tywin has more than enough cause to deny this highly unusual request, and to keep close tabs on Sansa's whereabouts at all times. Tywin went to war when Tyrion was kidnapped -- yes, not for Tyrion's sake but for Lannister pride. So what makes you think he won't consider Tyrion's murder a matter of Lannister pride and look hard into it that too? They can see that he did not choke as easily as they did with Joffrey. Tyrion was to deliver the North to Tywin, so his death was a major setback. As Lord of Winterfell, he brings a good third of the realm under Tywin's control, and he would have no reason to press a claim to Casterly Rock, especially if, as Tywin is still planning, it goes to Jaime. Yes, Olenna would not have killed Tyrion if he was not married to Sansa, but that's because their union shifts the balance of power away from Highgarden, which held it for 10,000 years or more, to Casterly Rock. The North is what's important here, not Tyrion or Sansa. They are just means to an end: maintaining military and economic power. For Olenna, that power is not significantly enhanced if Sansa becomes the Lady of Highgarden, but it is significantly degraded if Tyrion becomes Lord of Winterfell. That's why he had to go. And also note, that this whole situation only came about because Petyr ratted out the Willas plan. So much for Olenna being "part of the plan early on." If that was the case, all he had to do when he heard about the Willas plan from Dontos was tell his co-conspirator to nip this idea in the bud or there will be no hairnet, no poisoning, no rescue, no nothing. Instead, he tells the Lannisters, knowing they will quick-marry her to one of their own, and Tyrion is the most likely groom. Now, instead of getting a maiden Sansa he gets a soiled one, by that vile imp no less. It's only when we look at it from the perspective that Olenna knew nothing about Petyr's plans, or the hairnet, or the poison, until after Sansa wed Tyrion does it all make sense. At the dinner, she was truly intending to bring Sansa to Highgarden after Margaery was safely wed. But then, due to Petr's machinations, she agreed to kill Tyrion when he became a principal threat to the Reach's security. Tyrion did not drag his feet about marrying Sansa. He questioned it briefly when he first heard about it, and then the marriage took place almost immediately. And Petyr had already told the Lannisters about the Willas plan, so any delay from that point is irrelevant to that decision. That's what prompted the marriage in the first place. The only reason for the hairnet is because Olenna was not part of the plan yet. All Petyr had at that point was Sansa and the poison. He knew he needed a distraction to get her out of the capital without a little bird seeing, but he doesn't know who the poisoner or the victim will be yet -- just that he needs all four of these elements together in order to pull this off. So where to keep the poison? He can hold it himself, but then he has to trust someone else to deliver it later, when the chaos of the battle has died down. Can he give it to Dontos? No, at best he'll sell it and go on a bender; at worst he'll rat him out. His eventual poisoner? Risky, since it could be a trap, and any poisoner capable of doing this job will rightly be suspicious for the same reason. The best thing is to give it to Sansa without her knowing what it is -- just that it is her salvation. So at least he has these two elements in place for when the job is done. Now, all he needs is a poisoner and a target, which both came into place with the marriage to Tyrion. In one stroke, Petyr created both the victim and the motivation for the poisoner to kill him for her reasons, not his.

None of those witnesses would have anything to say if Tyrion was nowhere near the chalice the whole night. No amount of "adapting their stories" could overcome that. And the only reason Tyrion was able to touch the chalice is the lengthy series of completely unpredictable split-second decisions both he and Joffrey made after the dwarf joust. If just one of those things failed to happen, the frame-up simply could not happen. Yes, Joffrey and Tyrion have bad blood between them, and the joust might, emphasis on might, bring that out. But to then know for sure that the chalice will be brought into it, and the Joffrey will place the chalice in the exact place at the exact time it needed to be poisoned is simply impossible. And as we can see from the text, no one, not even Garlan, was close enough to do it without Sansa noticing, let alone the thousand people who are facing it from the other side of the table.

Petyr could not possibly have predicted all the entire sequence of events that led to Joffrey's death and Tyrion being frames. This would mean that just by staging the dwarf joust, he knows with absolute certainty that: - Tyrion and Joffrey will get into it. Not a bad assumption, if Tyrion is still in the room, and conscious. - That Joffrey will bring the chalice into it. A little shakier here. Yes, it's one of Joffrey's new toys, but he has a shiny new sword as well, and Tyrion did pull a knife on him at his own wedding . . . - That Joffrey would make Tyrion his cup-bearer, giving Tyrion a reason to even touch the chalice, let alone fill it -- That Joffrey would place the chalice in the exact spot at the exact time for it to be poisoned, somehow, with not even Sansa seeing despite it being directly in front of her. So sorry, what you have here is not the straightforward version, but the utterly impossible version told by Littlefinger, aka, the biggest liar in the book, to Sansa, aka, the most gullible person in the book, to cover up the fact that his whole plan went tits up when Joffrey at the poisoned pie that was meant for Tyrion. That one event could not have been predicted, and it was all that was needed to scotch the actual plan, whereas the regicide/framing theory requires an entire sequence of unpredictable events in order to work.

That didn't stop the Freys from become rebels and criminals themselves -- once they exacted their tribute.

No, she told Sansa that she would bring her to Highgarden because that's what she was going to do. Olenna was not part of the poisoning plot at this point, otherwise she never would have considered such a thing, nor would she be confused by the "disturbing tales" about Joffrey because the only man who told her he was anything but a mad tyrant has admitted that he lied. And sorry, but with Tyrion suddenly dead, Sansa is not going anywhere. First, it would be highly improper for a woman in mourning go to visiting the day after her husband's death. Talk about drawing attention to her. And Tywin already knows about this plot to marry her to Willas, so in this case he is absolutely right to refuse her leave. And remember, the initial plot to ask for this leave was when Sansa was still unmarried, so Tyrion's death would have absolutely nothing to do with her. By the wedding, however, she was his wife and the Willas plot was already blown, so the circumstances are completely different now. And sorry, but if you agree that Tyrion was the target and the poison was in the pie, then your theory about the hairnet becomes even more awkward. Why bother with any of this if Lady O can just give Sansa the poison? How could they expect a timid little mouse like Sansa to do it when the time came? And since Lady O was standing right behind Tyrion just before the pie was wheeled in, and this is right where the servant would be holding the plate with the slice on it, why does Lady O need anyone else to do it? The Tyrells are only aligned with the Lannisters as a temporary convenience. Their aim is to put Margaery's son on the Iron Throne. Once that is done, the alliance, and Joffrey, are expendable. The real geopolitical issue that Olenna is trying to undo is Tywin's emerging empire. Check the history books: for hundreds of centuries, Highgarden was the dominant house on the continent, both militarily and economically. And unlike the other kingdoms, the Reach has no mountains, deserts, choke points or other natural barriers to invasion. just league upon league of open farmland. Their only means of defending themselves is their huge army -- twice, even three times, the size of any other house. In the past 15 years or so, however, Tywin has gained control of the Iron Throne, the crownlands, the stormlands, the riverlands and now the north. That gives him the ability to raise an army that can neutralize the Reach's one and only means of defense. With Tyrion dead, he loses the north. But if he still has Sansa, he can just marry her off to another Lannister and the problem remains. If she is with Petyr, however, there is a chance that someday he will become a rival to Highgarden's power, but that is a problem for another day, and another lord or lady.

I doubt it would be the next day. Sansa would be in mourning, so it would be very inappropriate to go visiting. Three months at minimum. But on top of that, Tywin already knows the Olenna tried to bring Sansa to Highgarden, and why. So I would be very surprised if he didn't keep a close eye on her now that she's eligible again. This is why I can only conclude that Olenna knew all about Sansa's escape. Yes, Petyr now has her, but better him than Tywin.

Lady Olenna was the poisoner, all by herself. She was right where the pie was just before it was served. If Sansa was the poisoner then there was no reason why Lady O should have fiddled with the hairnet. There was no wind that day, and the whole purpose of a hairnet is to keep the hair in place even if the wind is blowing. So it would have taken quite a gust to knock it loose, completely unnoticed by everyone.

What about forcing someone to marry your daughter when he is on his way to lift the siege of your liege lord?

If lady Olenna was not the mastermind of this plan, then it was just a couple of lunkheads on a lark. Lady O is not going to give up Margaery without removing first Cersei and disinheriting her children -- and that means exposing them as illegitimate. And they only way she can do that is to get Jaime to admit that he is the father (which is not out of the realm of possibility when you think of it). Otherwise, Cersei will simply call for a TBC and likely win with Jaime as her champion. Tywin Lannister's feelings on the matter are not important. If it came to war, the Reach would wipe the floor with the Westerlands. And Tywin can fret all he wants about his loans, but at the end of the day if the throne does not pay, what's he going to do? Take them to court? The throne is the court. As the old saying goes: borrow a million from a bank and the bank owns you. Borrow a billion and you own the bank.

It's a very fine line between "earned" and "extorted." But it's a mistake to say that an entire House is good or bad, meritocratic or autocratic. The Freys bulldozed lesser houses to become their vassals, just like everyone else. They impose taxes and tariffs on goods generated or passing through their lands, just like everyone else. They made war on their rivals, just like everyone else. And they had good lords and bad lords, just like everyone else.

Robert might but his realm would have been off to a very rocky start and she would have been a giant albatross around his neck throughout his reign. All anyone would think whenever they saw her in court is her being raped by Rhaegar all those months, and many would have thought it better if she just killed herself afterward, or at least joined the silent sisters or skulked off to some remote castle somewhere up north. And Lyanna would have begged Robert not to subject her to a lifetime of shame and torment, arguing that if he really loved her, he would let her go.

The mistake that a lot of readers make is assuming that Martin is espousing some great truth by expressing it through a character. This is, in fact, a time-honored element in most literature, but Martin is standing that on its head. Just because a character believes something to be true does not make it so, either factually or as a matter of perspective.

I'll bet a trillion gold dragons.

@Northern Sword "It's, kof, the pie, kof -- noth, pie." And this is after he already tells us that it's the pie that's a bit dry and he wants more wine to soothe it. The whole time he was drinking his "deep purple" wine, there were no problems at all.

1. We get unimpeachable confirmation that the poison was in the pie and Tyrion was the target. It's already been confirmed, actually, many times over, but apparently more is needed. 2. Illyrio's plan to destroy the Iron Bank will be revealed, although maybe not culminated in Winds. Petyr will be revealed as his accomplice. 3. Roose Bolton will die and Ramsay will suddenly calm down, start speaking in whispers and leeching himself. Some people might notice that his eyes look slightly paler than they did before, but surely that is from his immense grief . . . 4. Blackfish will rescue Ed and Jeyne, revealing that there was never a plan to lure Tywin into the west and that Robb only fell for Jeyne because he was dosed with one of Gramma Maggy's love potions. 5. Bran will turn out to be the three-eyed crow, and that will pit a human heart at war with itself. and 6. The Others are not going to invade the south, there will be no final battle between good and evil, and they aren't even the ones raising and controlling the wights. ---- Sorry, but there is anything I wish would happen. The future unfolds as it will.

Probably, but that way madness lies.

That the poison was in the wine and Joffrey was the target.

If the great houses can't afford the best wines like the Arbor vintages, then no one can.

Could be. Maybe they're not trees at all.

What moments are you referring to? The only one I can think of was when he said Grey Wind just before he died, and, well, he was dying.

Is it feasible for a secretive order like the FM to assign the book theft to JH after he got out of KL, after he sent Arya on her way, and after he killed Balon? I mean, when he was in the black cells, Dany's dragons weren't even born yet. Edit: sorry, should have checked the thread to see if this point had already come up. Carry on.

Yeah, the book theory has been kicked around for quite a while. But it seems like the maesters have as much to fear from dragons as the Braavosi and the Faceless Men, so it would be far easier to make common cause than to steal from one another, no? The outline for AFFC seems sketchy, too. If it is legit, it can't possibly confirm anything since there are all kinds of things in there that didn't happen, ie, Brienne and the Hound, Rattleshirt and Val, something about the Mountain's missing tooth . . . And it didn't end with Hardhome.