John Suburbs

All theories are like that. If Rhaegar did really run off with Lyanna, if the promise really was about Jon, and Young Griff really is fAegon . . . And sorry, but the collapse of Braavos would be nothing but good for Pentos. They regain their autonomy, can raise their own army again, start dealing in slaves . . . and all the ports of Westeros will no longer see Braavosi cogs in their harbors, creating an ideal situation for Penoshi traders to expand their business. I'm not talking about slave raids. I'm talking about desperate, starving people selling themselves or their children into slavery to survive. This already happens in Westeros, see Jorah Mormont. The evidence that he is working with Littlefinger is as I've already laid out: Petyr's backstory, his moves in GoT and beyond, the fact that Illyrio doesn't care one wit that Petyr is the one blind spot in the spy network that he has given to Varys. It's just as much evidence, if not more, than there is for RLJ. Tyrion sees quite a lot in Illyrio's manse: "Casks of wine and ale . . . more than enough drink to see a thirsty dwarf safely through the night." "There was enough wine to keep him drunk for a hundred years, sweet reds from the Reach and sour reds from Dorne, pale Pentoshi ambers, the green nectar of Myr, three-score casks of Arbor gold, even wines from the fabled east, from Qarth, Yi-Ti and Asshai by the Shadow." And that's just one room. But I never said there was text to prove any of this, just that is the logical thing to do, and it counters your argument that the collapse would ruin him. It won't, because he knows it's coming, just like 1929 didn't ruin Joseph Kennedy -- it made him one of the wealthiest men in the world and allowed him to put his son in the White House. Dany is the wild card in all of this. She if Stannis and fAegon go, she is the only one who could preserve the kingdom. And her disruption of the slave trade only hastens the bank's demise. Any trader who owes the Iron Bank and depends on even a portion of his income to the slave trade will have trouble paying it back, which weakens the bank's profits at a time when it needs them the most. But if you don't buy it, then you don't buy it. No sense beating your head against a wall trying to prove it's not true. There is plenty to conclude that it is. We'll just have to wait and see.

The economic fallout will be severe, no doubt. But at the end of the day, people still need to eat, they still need clothes, the economy will muddle along until the dust settles, just like it did after the Rogare bank collapsed (which was wealthier and more powerful than the IB), just like our world did after 1929. And since Illyrio is the one who orchestrated it, he is now the wealthiest man in the known world, with the capital to fund all trade and start his own bank, while Braavos is in shambles. The only people who are directly impacted by all of this are those who had all their money in the IB, which will be mostly Braavosi. By this logic, then no lord would ever depose a king, no one would ever take down a triarch or an archon, no plitical party would ever sieze power from another . . . All these things produce economic and political instability -- except for the new person in charge. Give people a choice between slavery and starvation and see how quickly they choose slavery. Any number of wealthy merchants, traders, magistrates all throughout the free cities hates Braavos, favors slavery, and all the rest. And mentioning in private that he is pro-slavery (which I'm not sure he does, but I'll take your word for it), is hardly announcing it to the world. Publicly, Illyrio owns no slaves, nor does anyone else in Braavos. Nor does he ever say anything against the treaty. No one is going to know what he has stockpiled within his manse. Nobody knows he's the one behind the IB meltdown, and he is not the only one in a position to profit. It will be years before all of this comes to fruition, and it is eminently plausible that he was merely the one who took advantage of a situation not of his own making. Right now, only Illyrio and Littlefinger need to know what is really going on. Even his proxy depositors don't need to know the full scheme, just that they will lose their money if they don't withdraw before anyone else does. So sorry, but this endless series of hyprotheticals do not overrule the basic facts: if the Iron Bank goes down, so does the Braavosi economy, and that can only be good for Pentos and Illyrio in particular, even as countless others suffer.

Nonsense, there will be plenty of trade. People still need food, fuel, textiles, plus there will be legions of desperate people in the burned out Riverlands who would be more than willing to sell themselves, or their children, into slaver rather than starve to death. Um, Illyrio is not going to announce his triumph for all the world. The bank created its own mess. He simply steps in amid the chaos in Braavos, slowly taking over trade routes, while the Prince of Pentos, whoever that is, declares their new sovereignty -- and Braavos can't do anything about it because they can't enforce the treaty anymore..

No, it won't take time. Look at how fast SVB went from powerhouse to basketcase. A run can wipe out the bank in a day. Once that happens, all hell breaks loose in Braavos and they are no position to launch raids on anyone. They have no money to pay their bills because the top bank officials made off with whatever was left in the vaults. No one suspects anyone is plotting against them. The bank is doing this to itself. Like I said, if fAegon agrees to honor the loan, which he won't because it was wracked up by the men who murdered his family and stole his crown, then Illyrio can just kill him. Lol, if the Sealord and IB won't allow anyone who won't pay back their loan to sit the Iron Throne, then why is Tommen still king with Cersei as regent? Why isn't Stannis sitting the throne? Why is fAegon even in a position to claim it? The IB does not rule the world. If it wants it's money it has to find a champion who can successfully subdue at least six of the seven great houses, including Casterly Rock and the Eyrie, all of which will take more money and more money and more money, with no guarantee of success. Stannis is far more likely to die in the attempt that succeed. And when that happens, the bank is out of luck. There is no one else to back because, again, Westeros is not like Essos where anyone with enough money and mmuscle can become the new triarch or archon. So no, the GC will not fall, the bank will not get its money back . . . if this plan works. The only wildcard now is Dany.

If all Braavos can promise is loot, then the their sailors would do better to pirate and keep all the loot for themselves, not share it with Braavos. Nobody knows Pentos is to blame. That's the beauty of it. The Iron Bank is to blame because it overextended itself and failed to consider the political dynamics of the loan recipient. Illyrio is the invisible hand. The Iron Bank going down hurts everyone in the region except for the person who knows it's going down and can stockpile cash, food and other goods ahead of time. Illyrio will emerge as the wealthiest person on either side of the Narrow Sea, in perfect position to dominate all trade for the foreseeable future. When George Soros almost crashed the bank of England by shorting the British pound, everyone else was hurt and he walked off with millions.

If the bank fails and the Braavosi economy collapses, they will have no money to pay sailors or outfit ships. They will have enough to deal with quelling the riots and breakdown of social order in their own city, let alone patrol the seas. There is no Iron Bank or Braavosi government to make Pentos or Westeros or anyone else pay for anything. They are gone.

One of his first acts will be to declare the debts incurred by murderers and usurpers to be their responsibility, not the crown's. This will prompt the Iron Bank to send a faceless man after him, just as Illyrio and his cohort, Littlefinger, are planning.

Sure, it could be all kinds of things. But none of those things have been suggested in the text, so all we have to go on is that the wine merchant pegged her accent as Tyroshi. It's also reasonable to assume that he's been all over the free cities, otherwise he would not be able to distinguish one accent from another, and that Dany's accent would have emerged in the period where her language patterns became established, which would coincide with her time at the house with the red door. She also has fond memories of the honeyfinger cakes in the Tyroshi bazaars. No one else says Dany has a Tyroshi accent, but several characters have remarked on its distinctness in other people. Chett called it a "wet, girly tongue", and Tyrion thought the accent of the Tyroshi singer at Joffrey's wedding was ludicrous. Nobody ever said that about anyone from Braavos. Plus, Tyrosh and Braavos are pretty far from each other, so it's possible but highly unlikely that their accents would be similar. So given that we can pretty much rule out Braavos as a suitable habitat for citrus trees, then Tyrosh would be a more likely candidate than Dorne. Tyrosh at least has something to back it up.

It's not a question of bringing a lemon tree to Braavos, it's getting it to survive and thrive in such a climate. If they could grow in Braavos, then they should be common throughout the southern half of Westeros, but they're not. You could bring a lemon tree from Florida to New York, but it won't survive there either unless it's in some kind of controlled environment, and there is nothing to suggest that the house with the red door was inside a greenhouse so large that Dany did not notice it, or that this engineering marvel was not widely mentioned as one of the wonders of the world, or why anyone would think to build a home in such a hothouse. But you're right that Dorne would not be the only place for the house with the red door. The wine merchant in Vaes Dothrak thought her accent was Tyroshi, which suggests she was in Tyrosh during her formative language years. So my vote is that the house and the lemon tree are in Tyrosh.

Robb was not in control of his own mind when he married Jeyne. He was under the influence of one of grandma Maggy's love potions, a powerful one.

Eh, Cersei has a way of bending the rules to her benefit. She didn't choose a kingsguard for Tyrion's TbC, but of course, her honor was not at stake then. Regents have wide latitude to enforce the rules as they see fit.

Not if her accuser is the king. Remember, the plan of both Stannis and Ned was to convince Robert that the children were not his so he would then dispense his justice. So Robert would pick a KG, and Cersei would pick her own champion. But sure, I wouldn't put it past Robert to choose Jaime as his champion, so that even if Cersei wins, she loses. And mayhaps Jaime would simply refuse, which would be a yet another violation of his oath . . .

Even if Robert believed Ned there is still no proof. Ned's own children look more Tully than Stark. So Robert would have died before a trial could even take place, or if they rushed it through Cersei could call for a TBC with Ser Gregor as her champion, which she would win. So it might have worked out better for Ned if he had told Robert. When Cersei beats the rap, he could have honorably withdrawn from the capital with his daughters and his house intact.

The facts are all there, just like they were with the Sealord's cat. The Hound was responsible for protecting Joffrey and he went inexplicably AWOL that day. Yet there were no repercussions that day despite Cersei attacking everyone and everything involved, and even those who were not involved. Martin does not just make up utterly implausible scenarios just to advance the plot. It's why it takes him 10 years to write a novel. So you are not giving him credit. You are turning him into a hack. There is nothing wrong with coincidences like Bran climbing the tower (the broken tower was his favorite place and it was the perfect out-of-the-way place for a tryst, after all), or Tyrion running into Cat, but when the facts of what was supposed to be contradict what actually is, that's when you know something is up -- just like with the Arryn murder, the Westerling conspiracy, and RLJ. Ned had already sent the bulk of his men with Beric, and no, he would have no idea that either of his daughters, let alone the good one, would go sneaking off to the queen to tell her his plans. Nothing unusual there -- other than the fact that even Sansa is surprised at her newfound willfulness, which may also be a subtle sign of things happening in the subtext. Sandor was angling to get his gold back. It would be odd if he wasn't there. So none of what you are proposing as evidence is even closely the same as this. There is nothing inherently wrong with any of it, unlike two of the most valuable children in the world riding off alone into the countryside. Not even Robert and Ned do that, nor does any other highborn. Even Bran's first ride on Dancer starts out with Robb and Theon, both fully armed and armored, plus five additional guardsmen. And look what happened when they got lax and Bran found himself alone -- he was almost killed by wildlings, literally right on Winterfell's doorstep. That's how dangerous it is when the very clothes you are wearing are worth more than an average peasant earns in a year. So just like all the things that were wrong with the notion that Cersei killed Jon Arryn -- right up to Pycelle telling us that "she wanted him dead" because "he knew about . . . about . . ." -- and the Westerling plot, and RLJ and half-a-dozen other events, all the clues are there screaming out the truth. Sadly, though, some people can only see this in hindsight.

Nonsense. It's all subtextual evidence that there was a plot afoot. Give Martin a little credit. When he uses "authorial devices" to advance the plot, he at least makes them plausible. If he just made up whatever scenario out of thin air whenever he wanted, it wouldn't take him 10 years to write a novel.

No that's not it. It's the fact that they were allowed to go off all by themselves in the first place. This simply does not happen, not even for Ned and Robert. It's far too dangerous. And Joffrey has a sworn shield who is honor-bound to protect him at all times who just went AWOL for the day just because Joff told him to back away from Sansa. And when Joff did get hurt, and could have been killed, Cersei is flipping mad at everyone and everything involved, and even takes it out on the wolf who was not involved, but not a peep about the man whose job, his only job, is to prevent this exact thing from happening. And, of course, we first learn that Sansa hates horses and has very little experience at riding, but there she is bouncing overland on her common mare while Joff tears ahead on his courser, which is a horse bred for speed. And what do we later learn Cersei believes happens to young girl's bodies when they go in for hard riding? There's more, but this was a setup, clear as day.

Yes, the whole thing was a setup. Cersei only wanted to slut-shame Sansa to scotch the betrothal -- thus the fact that they were allowed to go off alone, and the hard riding, and the wine . . . Joffrey was going to kill her, probably by drowning her in the river, because he thought this was necessary to protect his crown.

Ned was too shy to ask her to dance, so Brandon did it for him, and they had one dance together. And from that people turned it into a torrid love affair that produced a child and ended in tragedy. And yet, when Ned is in the black cells miserating over all the regrets in his life, and in particular the promise at the ToJ and all the events that led up to that point, not once does his mind fall on this love of his life who he supposedly betrayed so badly that she took her own life. Sorry, but call me skeptical. The relationship between her and Elia is that Ashara's family is vassal to Elia's, and she became Elia's lady in waiting either before or after the marriage to Rhaegar. Her relationship with Lyanna was virtually nil. She had little to no relation with the ToJ. The story is that it was one of Rhaegar's private places when he wanted to get away from things and write songs, but we can't even be sure if that is true. There is no connection between her and the prophecy, and there is no real evidence that Rhaegar did any of the things people say he did or had anything to do with Lyanna's disappearance at all. The source for this whole tale, which most readers believe is half-a-lie already, comes from a single unknown person who spilled it to Brandon on the kingsroad. Not one person, living or dead, says they saw Rhaegar and Lyanna together at any time after Harrenhal. So Ashara's involvement in all of this is basically a cover story that Ned allowed to fester to make people think they know who Jon's mother was, when in reality it was Lyanna -- and despite his non-involvement in her disappearance, Rhaegar is still probably JJon's father nonetheless. It's complicated.

Joffrey did it, but Littlefinger was the instigator. To reiterate my earlier post, Petyr convinced Joffrey that the only way to prevent Ned from becoming Hand, and jeopardizing Joffrey's ascension to the throne, is if a Stark child were to suddenly die. So first, Joff tried to goad Robb into fighting with live steel, with a little night soil on his own blade. Then Bran fell and Joff though all was good, but when Ned came south anyway he sent the CP back to finish the job. And when they reached the Trident and there was still no word of Bran's death, Joff took the opportunity to use Cersei's plan to slut-shame Sansa on their little date to kill her instead. But fortunately they ran into Arya and Micah.

Thoros is part of the LSH group at the moment. Maybe he'll splinter off, but I don't see any suggestion that he will. A couple of members of Beric's original band were sent south to buy/scavenge food. It's hard to say what they'll think of LSH if they ever meet her. Others like Ned Dayne and Anguy weren't mentioned as being part of LSH's band, but Brienne would not know them by sight so they might have been there. Or maybe they've already bolted. We'll have to see. But be careful trying to predict what will come in Martin's stories. That way madness lies.

Moral of the story: don't screw with Tywin Lannister. For reference, see Reynes and Tarbecks.

For the same reason Mel tells Jon to have a tail even though he doesn't (or shouldn't) need one at Castle Black: the trappings of power are as important as the power itself. She keeps her own guards for that very reason as well, IRRC.

Just FYI, the other day when I was navigating the forum and wiki Trend Micro starting flashing security warnings, most of them on something called reachms/bfmio, but also on sync/bfmio. It seems to be OK now, but I just thought you might want to know. It could be something simple like expired security tickets or something.

She is going to elope with a married prince and she has no way of eluding her guard? Even 9yo Arya had no trouble doing that. Or she is being attacked, in broad daylight in front of witnesses, by a group of armed men and her guards cut and ran? Guards are commanded to give their lives for their lords and ladies. What good is a guard if he is going to give you up at the first sign of trouble? And then it was these cowardly guards who then immediately reported this as a kidnapping? They should have made straight for Saltpans and hopped the next cog to Essos, lest Brandon learn what they did. Why would R and/or L want anyone to know that they are off to make a mythical hero baby? And the Starks know? But not Brandon? Why is he out of the loop? And even Robert knows? Why is he so furious, now 15 years later, about the thousands of times Rhaegar raped Lyanna? Did he forget? So basically Rhaegar's reasoning is this: I'll snatch the betrothed maid, have a baby with her, even "wed" her if I want, and then I'll just wing it from there? Come on. Give the man some credit. They already had a good marriage for Lyanna, to the Lord of Storm's End. Now she's been tarnished in front of the entire realm; she'll be lucky to get a third son of some minor branch house. I don't think you realize what a huge insult this is to both Starks and Baratheons. Lyanna wasn't just a bride, she was the union of two great houses. Her value was political, not personal. And he is doing this to two houses who were conspiring to put Rhaegar on the throne just weeks before. All of this is so completely out of character for both Rhaegar and Lyanna, not to mention Aerys subsequently and the KG, Ned and others after that, that it is hard to see how people are able to rationalize this just to produce they explanation they desire. Sorry, but the text provides all kinds of reasons to doubt Rhaegar's involvement. Not just the false kidnap story but the actions of virtually everyone in the weeks and months that followed. Literally everyone would have to be the opposite of what they seemed to be in order to make this work. Rhaegar is the mad one. Aerys is relatively sane and caring toward his heir. Lyanna cares not a whit what happens to her family or anyone else as long as she gets her prince. The KG, three of them at once, forsake their vows to support Rhaegar. Ned makes a life-altering promise to the sister who betrayed him and their house, subjecting his wife to a lifetime of shame and actually increasing the risk that Jon will be found out . . . For three full novels, nobody other than Cersei and Jaime were mentioned in connection with the death of Jon Arryn, right up to the point where Pycelle is telling us "she wanted him dead" because "he knew about . . . about . . ." And yet the truth could have been deduced by asking why Cersei did not destroy the book or act against Ned sooner, why she admits the truth to Ned without batting an eye, why she didn't admit it to Tyrion right after she confessed to killing Robert, or any number of other contrary decisions she made if she was truly worried about these Hands and their "evidence." In the end, the fact is that she wasn't, and had no reason to be. I think we will see the same thing here. And Martin has said that we will get the full story of what happened by the end of the series. But that's enough for me on this subject. Thanks for the chat.

Maybe they didn't bother to elope at night? Maybe they didn't bother to meet up where no one else is around? Maybe they didn't take even the most basic steps to hide their identities? Again, I ask, why not? Why are they so bound and determined to be found out as quickly as humanly possible? Do they want to get away or don't they? Do they intend to make a baby or not? Do they intend to rescue Lyanna from the brutish Robert or don't they? Why wouldn't they do everything humanly possible to steal away together and have no one know what they are up to? Catelyn was in cognito at the inn, very effectively. Only someone who knew her by sight who saw her up close revealed her, and then she had no choice. So how would this same thing happen with R&L? Is Lyanna hiding her identity and Rhaegar spots her? Is Rhaegar hiding and Lyanna outs him? And wouldn't this fly in the face of your contention that this was an elopement and not a kidnapping? Why would they meet in an inn, announce their identities to a bunch of strangers, and then stage it like a kidnapping? Why are they being so nonchalant about something that they both know will rock their two houses at the very least? Nobody would see Rhaegar's silver hair at night. Nobody would see it if he took the simple step of wearing a hooded cloak. It is the dead of winter after all. Why are they both so bound and determined to be caught as quickly as possible? Why is he wearing his distinctive armor and his feathers? The central question you keep evading: why are they doing absolutely nothing to keep people from discovering their elopement? OK, so who is spreading the false tale of the kidnapping in your scenario? Who is throwing Rhaegar under the bus like this if not Aerys? And if the kidnapping part is false, why is it so all-fire impossible for the entire story to be false? No, he didn't take her to Dragonstone, which is the most logical place to bring her considering it is his seat and he could get her there in a couple of days with no one the wiser. Instead, he carts her overland all the way to the ToJ, a good couple of weeks or more. And no one spots them on this long journey. No one thinks to rescue the kidnapped maiden and bring the prince to justice. No one has any clue that this is where they've gone. Even Brienne could not get Jaime back to KL from Riverrun, and that was through a land desolated by war. It is not pointless to ask why not. That is where the truth lies. It is how we could have puzzled out the truth of the Arryn murder: by asking why didn't Cersei do a number of key things if she was truly worried about the Hand and the book. And it's how you can still get to the truth about the Purple Wedding and other things. Rhaegar is no fool. He knows exactly what the fallout is when you make off with a highborn daughter, particularly one who is betrothed. It's not just the Starks he has to worry about but the Baratheons too. And if the tales of Harrenhal are true, these are they very same lords who were plotting to put him on the throne just weeks before. So any way you looik at it, this is a completely mad act by a man who has shown no signs of madness before and received the admiration of some of the most honorable, noble people in the realm, both before and after his death. Certainly not the result for someone who would commit such a horrible crime. Aerys would not have to be with Lyanna or Rhaegar in order to kidnap them both. But supposedly Rhaegar himself snatched Lyanna off the road, a story we only get from one unnamed stranger. And the speed that this story got out strongly suggest that neither of them did the slightest thing to hide their actions, which is completely incongruous given the implications of what they were supposedly up to. The story does not fit the facts. When that happens, you don't just ignore the facts that dispute your theory, nor do you just make up imaginary facts out of the clear blue sky. You try to find a plausible scenario that fits with what is actually known. Maybe it will pan out, maybe it won't. But you don't just dismiss it because it leads to a conclusion that's different from what you imagined. Again, it doesn't matter what Lyanna knew or did not know afterward. She acted selfishly and it resulted in the deaths of her father and brother, not to mention countless others across the realm. She defied her father, shamed her house and ran off with a married man because it suited her own self-interest. She has no right to expect any favors from Ned, nor does Ned have any reason to grant them, particularly one that falsely brings additional shame to him, his wife and the son that Lyanna wants him to raise -- and in fact places this son in greater jeopardy of being found out. Yet another in a long list of examples where people are doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing if this elopement story is true. There is no indication that Hightower had any trouble finding them. And then he simply tells Rhaegar to get his tail back to KL, or places him in custody of some junior office who has no standing to arrest the crown prince, and decides to stay at the ToJ because guarding Rhaegar's girlfriend is more important than protecting the king? IT's just one disconnect after another. The characters are not doing what they should be doing under your narrative, not mine. In mine, Aerys is the cause of all this. He had them both taken. He impregnated Lyanna. He then forced Rhaegar to fight for him or lose his family to hideous painful deaths -- something that would not happen if Rhaegar had foresaken them for the new love of his life. The KG are at the ToJ on Aerys' orders, not Rhaegars, doing what they should be doing as honorable knights who have sworn holy vows to obey their king. Ned makes the promise to Lyanna because he knows she is not really the cause of all this -- although he can still chide her for her wolf blood because it would not have happened without the Laughing Tree stunt. The only people who think any of this is true are ones like Robert and Selmy and Jaime (and I even wonder about Jaime), because they are not privy to the truth. There are no disconnects in this narrative, which doesn't make it true but at least it's plausible. It's not the characters who have it wrong, it's you. Did you read the World Book? Yes, Aerys thinks everyone is plotting against him, including Rhaegar, to put Rhaegar on the throne. He's felt this way for years, since Duskendale at least, and he feels so strongly by the tourny at Harrenhal that he leaves the RK, something he hasn't done in years, to put a stop to it. So yes, Rhaegar suddenly going mad and not only shaming himself before the entire realm but also severing the ties with the very lords he was conspiring against is a golden opportunity to get rid of him -- disinherit him and his family entirely and name his precious Viserys as the new crown prince. Instead, he covers for the suspect prince and then gives him an army to accomplish exactly what Aerys fears most. Sorry, but this is the single biggest disconnect in the entire episode. But, as you say, none so blind as those who refuse to see . . . Hightower commanded the royal forces during the Ninepenny Kings. Selmy slew Malys the Monstrous. Houses too many to name from the Crownlands and Dorne (but not the Reach apparently, odd) sent knights and lords into battle. Presumably, this included the Daynes, although Ser Arthur is not mentioned. He did, however, rid the Kingswood of the brotherhood, slaying the Smiling Knight while Selmy slew the leader, Simon Toyne. Hightower, meanwhile, took a would saving Elia from an attack. And, of course, Selmy also single-handedly rescued Aerys from Duskendale. All of these brave men were proving themselves and risking their lives fighting off foes while Rhaegar sat around day-dreaming and playing his lute. We don't know how old he was when he decided he "must" be a warrior, but Selmy at least said he took to it with skill but no enthusiasm. It was a chore to him, not a passion. How does having a squire qualify you to lead an army? By that logic, any two-bit hedge knight should be put in command. My narrative does fit the facts. If gives Aerys a plausible reason to suddenly trust Rhaegar with an army. Yours is the narrative that does not fit. You should fix yours. No that default does not apply to Rhaegar because Aerys had plenty of other choices to lead his army. Experienced men who have fought in battles and have led the royal army. Ned is the new Lord of Winterfell. He marched his host into the riverlands but he did not assume command of the entire rebel army. It was most likely Tully and Arryn calling the shots because they had the most experience. Scroll up. The KG betraying Aerys for Rhaegar and then Jon is a pretty well-worn theory when trying to square all the circles that exist within the kidnap/elope narrative. But it doesn't fit, just like none of the other lame excuses that are offered at all the other key disconnects. Again, you keep talking about how the facts fail my narrative. They don't. They fail yours. No one is doing as they should under your circumstances. Everyone involved is so utterly stupid that they do the exact opposite of what they should be doing -- Rhaegar, Lyanna, Ned, Aerys, the KG, nobody seems to have an ounce of sense here. But with Aerys as the instigator of all this, it all starts to balance out. L&R didn't alert the whole world of what they were doing. It was never done. The kidnap story spread so fast because Aerys made sure it did. Aerys didn't blow the perfect chance to rid himself of his son; he had to cover so that Rhaegar wouldn't spill the story of what really happened. The KG are obeying Aerys orders because that is what they are honor-bound to do. Aerys has a motive to devote his best protection to Jon because he needs him to birth a dragon. Ned understands that Lyanna did not precipitate all of this except in the most indirect way. So sorry, but since your narrative is the one that doesn't fit, except under the most unlikely, torturously stretched series of rationales, then you're the one who needs to reconsider. But anyway, it was nice chatting with you. I'm out.