John Suburbs

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  1. Yes, especially if Cersei made a stink about it. They had to have Margaery swear to the Seven that she was still a maiden before she could marry Joffrey. This is a feudal society where wantonness is taboo, especially for women. They are not going to let their boy prince marry anyone but the purest of virgins. Robert would have to accede to this because it would taint the rest of his dynasty. And besides, in a few short years Ned's other daughter will be old enough to marry.
  2. Because Ned is largely unknown to Littlefinger, while he has had plenty of time to take a measure of Jaime to realize he is reckless, arrogant and heedless -- just the kind of hand who could produce the most chaos. But in the end it doesn't matter to him; he can work the angles not matter who wears the chain. How can you possibly know what the point of the letter was? We're never given its contents other than that the Lanns killed JA, and Catelyn states unequivocally that it was a warning. So from that are we to deduce that after 15 years Littlefinger thinks he knows Cat well enough (and Ned not at all) that he can use reverse psychology to induce Ned to come south? Littlefinger knows as well as Tyrion that Ned cannot refuse a royal command. If Robert wants Ned to be hand, Ned will be hand. Sure, Ned at Winterfell takes them out of the game for a while. But with Jaime as hand there are plenty of ways to foment discord with Riverrun, Highgarden, Sunspear, even the Eyrie. Littlefinger doesn't want war between WF and CR? Well, he sure does his damnedest to bring it about. But like you said, his plan at this point could have gone in multiple directions no matter who is hand. Littlefinger knows Robert, and Robert is a king who does not take refusal kindly. But sure, Ned could have called on their long years of friendship to ask a boon a Robert, and Robert might have granted it. But this is irrelevant to Littlefinger because he can get more chaos out of Jaime than Ned. Honestly, are you saying that all of LF's plans hinged on Ned becoming hand? That if this one thing did not work out for him his entire plan would have just withered away into nothing? The official story is that the council sent them to provide an honor guard for the king. But the realm is at peace, the harvests are good and there is no great discord between the major houses. What would these three knights need to discuss for an entire day with the queen but not the king? I'm not saying that Cersei wanted Sansa dead, just soiled. Killing her would be Joffrey's doing, and he doesn't need the Hound for that. What plan? Get her drunk, push her into the river and hold her down until she drowns, then run back to camp with a story about a terrible accident. Joffrey is woefully corrupted at this point. We agree that he sent that catspaw, right? I don't see how you can get more corrupted than murdering a crippled, comatose boy.
  3. You bet he has a network, and not only at sea: And since it seems we are free in this thread to quote references in the show to inform the characterizations in the book: Littlefinger has plenty of ways of know what happened in the throneroom, and he has plenty of time to get the news and rendezvous with Sansa out in the bay,
  4. Cleverly hide a 12yo, red-haired girl on a ship filled with men. And how exactly is he supposed to do that -- stuff her in the bilge I guess. No matter where he hides her, the risk will always be greater than if he just lets Oswell row her out into the bay. That way, he can watch the mouth of the Blackwater for a time, make sure no dromonds are suddenly in motion and in the dawn light be absolutely certain there is no pursuit. You aware, aren't you, that a good seven hours has passed between Joffrey's death and the conversation aboard the ship? No matter how badly you want to rationalize it, that is plenty of time for the man who has spies literally crawling all over the Red Keep to get word of what has happened and then use his larger ship with full sails and banks of oarsmen to rendezvous with an old man who has been rowing all night long. There are no insane convolutions with the pie. The facts are clear: Joffrey's poisoning is dramatically longer than Cressen's, by several orders of magnitude. Joffrey takes multiple chugs compared to Cressen's half swallow. Joffrey's wine at the end is deep purple while Cressen sees nothing unusual about his. The insane convolutions only arise when you try to explain these facts away with fictional, fantasy poisons and characters suddenly becoming blind to the obvious. Joffrey's placement of the chalice directly in front of Garlan is an utterly random, completely unpredictable act, as is Joffrey naming Tyrion cup-bearer and all the other twists and turns that the chalice took to provide the perfect poisoning opportunity at exactly the right time. Insane convolutions are the idea that Littlefinger could know any of this ahead of time or that he had multiple dozens of contingency plans at the ready to account for every possible location for the chalice. Neither Lady O nor Margaery ever express even the slightest bit of concern over Joffrey, nor does Joffrey exhibit even the slightest hostility toward her -- in fact it is the exact opposite. The insane convolution (probably the insanest of all) is the idea that Lady O would choose this moment -- the very last opportunity before the bedding -- to kill him, effectively quashing any possibility of a Tyrell heir to the IT in the next five years at least, and do it in the most risky way imaginable whiile her entire family is surrounded by Lannister guards. And all because maybe, someday, far into the future, Joffrey might hurt Margaery. The insane convolution is the idea that Lady O and Margaery are lying, as is Joffrey, along with Garlan, Leonette, Mace, Allerie, dozens of trusted servants, and in the end the only person who is telling the truth is Littlefinger of all people. And when the truth is revealed, you will see what a real plot twist looks like and how it forces people who are so cocksure that they know exactly what the themes are and how they affect characterizations to re-evaluate everything they thought they knew -- and my oh my, won't they feel like fools then.
  5. Nothing that Sansa told Lady Olenna was a rumor or a secret. Joffrey stated in open court in front of numerous high lords and ladies that if Ned confessed he would show him mercy. Then, at the Sept of Baelor no less, Joffrey publicly declared that despite the pleadings of his mother, his intended, and the advice of his small counsel he was taking Ned's head anyway. Neither are the beatings any big secret. Sansa is seen at court with black eyes and bruised lips. As the queen-to-be, there is no one on the planet but the king who could do this to her and live. But even if there was any doubt, it was removed in the lower baily when Joffrey ordered Sansa stripped and beaten, again in the presence of numerous high lords and ladies, including Olenna's own grandson (or grand-nephew, whatever he is). And this is after she would have gotten an earful on the real Joffrey direct from Loras and Renley. That dinner conversation was actually Lady O's attempt to learn the truth about Sansa. Having been born in the north and then first sheltered in King's Landing under the watchful eye of her Septa and then shunned by the court after Ned's fall, Sansa is a complete mystery to Lady O. At best, she has reports from court-watchers that she is the pretty, polite, dutiful daughter of Ned Stark, all practiced courtesies and proper etiquette. But Lady O knows better than most that court personas can be easily faked. So she needs to know if Sansa is smart, stupid, a liar, a golddigger -- in short, will she make a valuable addition to House Tyrell or a big PitA. By finally answering truthfully about Joffrey, Sansa revealed herself as an honest, caring person who would put the safety of a complete stranger above her own needs to be free from Joffrey. And it was right after that that Willas was put on the table. This is actually a question for you. If Lady O and LF hatched this plan at Highgarden, why bother with the hairnet at all? Why not just give the poison to Lady O? If the purpose is to frame Sansa, then why is Lady O planning to marry her to Willas after the royal wedding? There is very little difference between the soft palate of a young boy and an old man. No other bodily systems are affected since the text proves the strangler works on contact. And now that we're on the subject of dilution, please explain how Joffrey's multiple chugs of "deep purple" wine could act more slowly than Cressen's half swallow of normal-looking wine. If you are going to argue that Cressen's wine was in fact the more concentrated, please explain why anyone would value a poison in which just a tiny flake of a crystal is enough to turn a normal amount of wine deeper than deep purple, or after however many hundreds or thousands of years of its existence, nobody hit on the idea that maybe dropping it in crystal form into wine is not the best way to deploy the strangler. Like I said, first or second, Margaery dies. Old lady falls, bride rushes over and the king dies. Hmm, how fortunate. Nobody would suspect a thing. And exactly how is any of this less risky than simply poisoning Joffrey's food at the beginning of the feast? It's actually before the pie is wheeled in, as Aleric of Whatever is singing his song. And this is not the seconds I'm talking about. I'm referring to the mere seconds between the pie-cutting and Tyrion getting his pie. It literally goes cut-doves-cheers-twirl-pie. That can only mean the pies are already plated and very close to the head table, most likely right behind it in the vicinity of Lady O's last known position only a few minutes before. He drank wine with Sansa, but it's her head that is swimming, not his. Search all you want, Joffrey has never been sloppy drunk guzzling wine like it was water, especially at public events where his mother and related elders are watching. That is not bullshit, that is the definition of murder. And why would it not be a moral dilemma if you intended to kill a grown man but instead killed his little girl instead. If you intended to run down someone with your car but hit a little kid instead, are you telling me you would not experience any moral qualms about that? When the author is speaking off-the-cuff probably for the dozenth time that day and you pull one word out of a five-minute response and take it to mean whatever you want it to mean, it's you who doesn't know what you're saying. Lol, no there is no real-world strangler. And we don't know that it affects only the throat. So at this point, the wine theory is dependent on nothing but fantasy because people can imagine the strangler does whatever they need it to do in order to support their favorite conclusion. So from this point, we can lump the wine theory with all the other crackpot theories on these boards -- everything from Strong Belwas is Ned Stark to Summer Islanders are actually glamored monkees. This is the key difference between the wine and the pie: the wine requires endless suppositions and constant dependency on magic and purely fictional constructs, while the pie is supported by actual text and the real-world rules of physics, chemistry and physiology. Well sorry, but you're the one arguing against the claim the LF doesn't hurt people just because he enjoys it. Everything he does is calculated to bring him power, true, and if those he hurts happen to be friends or foes it makes no difference, power is power. Joffrey, of course, is in no way, shape or form a threat to LF's power. In fact, Joffrey was the ideal vessel to sow chaos into House Lannister and across the entire realm -- certainly a far more chaotic king than Tommen will ever be. Tyrion, on the other hand, is a clear and present danger. He is probably the only man in the realm with the smarts to unravel LF's embezzlement schemes and he happens to be married to the one person on the planet who can lay claim to Winterfell. By far, he is the greater threat to Littlefinger.
  6. Was it? I'm trying to fathom what Cersei could possible need to speak to "the good councillors" about for an entire day while Robert is out riding around with Ned. And it was Cersei who then suggested Joffrey "entertain" Sansa for the day while the Hound, who shadows Joffrey all around camp and in secure places like Winterfell, is nowhere to be seen as they go off into the riverlands. And as mentioned above, the encounter with Arya and Mycah was by sheer chance, otherwise I suspect Sansa would have ended up dead -- perhaps drowned in the river. It has nothing to do with resentment at this point -- he is trying to do right by his house by forcing Ned back to Winterfell.
  7. Whether Ned becomes hand or not is irrelevant to Littlefinger. The goal here is to sow enmity between Wolf and Lion, and what better way to do that by accusing the Lanns of one murder in King's Landing then implicating them in another at Winterfell? Certainly a lot quicker and less iffy on the details than luring Ned down south, leading him by the nose to all of Robert's bastards, fingering Tyrion as Bran's assassin and then counting on a chance meeting on the King's Road to effect the kidnapping that gets the banners called. As to whether Ned would have refused Robert's offer, we have this from Tyrion, who's a pretty perceptive guy:
  8. No, it would instantly disqualify her as a fit consort to the king, even if Joffrey forced himself on her. For one thing, he would just lie and claim Sansa was the seducer, and even if nobody believed that she would still be viewed as "soiled" and unfit to be queen.
  9. Only if the captain of that ship knew Littlefinger on sight, or that LF could not easily disguise himself as a simple trader or one of the oarsmen. This ought to be the biggest clue that your theory is wrong: you need LF to be exceedingly smart and strategic in order to pull off the assassination, but then afterward he has to be an utter dolt.
  10. LF could very well have influenced Joff to kill Bran, all without knowing about Bran's fall or anything else that has happened at Winterfell since the king arrived. Consider this: Before the royal party departs King's Landing, LF pulls Joff aside and tells him how bad it would be for his father, his mother, House Lannister and maybe the entire realm if Ned were to become hand, something that Joffrey might overhear or may have already overheard from Cersei and Jaime. LF would then lament -- never directly telling Joffrey anything, mind you -- that the only thing that could prevent that would be a Stark family tragedy, such as the sudden death of one of the children, and oh, by the way, that sure is a very fine VS dagger in your father's collection... So when Bran falls, it would appear to Joffrey that the problem has resolved itself. But to his surprise, Bran actually lives and Ned agrees to become hand. So that's when Joffrey decides to send the catspaw. And when that fails, we have the extraordinary event on the Trident where the crown prince and his bride-to-be are allowed to ride off alone through unfamiliar countryside to do who knows what. If I had to guess, I'll bet Cersei set that up so that Joff could get her drunk and besmirch her honor, although Joff had far more sinister plans... Did LF use his brothels to influence Joffrey? I tend to doubt it. He would get in serious trouble from the king and queen if that came to light, and it would be almost impossible to keep that secret from servants, or the Hound. After Joff became king, however, maybe that would provide some cover, but it seems to me that LF does not need to use sex to influence Joff -- he has no problem appealing to his vanity, his arrogance and his cruelty.
  11. Roose Bolton's father was the Night's King. When Joramun and the King of Winter slew the NK and his corpse bride, "Roose" as he is called now, was next in line to be sacrificed to the Others. Being the NK's heir, he inherited his ancestral lands and titles, which was likely the Dreadfort, but may have been Winterfell or one of the other northern seats. From that point, Roose discovered that he had the ability to literally skinchange with his blood relatives -- that is, kill them, flay them and wear their skins in a perfect likeness, all except the eyes, which remain pale as milkglass. So for the past seven thousand years or so, Roose has been fathering sons on human women, and when the time is right, change into their bodies and, of course, serve as the next lord of whatever for another generation. This explains a number of things about Roose: The flayed-man sigil of his house His pale skin, and the fact that he doesn't sweat His almost complete lack of hair The fact that he can quiet even big boisterous louts like the Greatjon with barely a whisper Why he has to leech himself constantly -- to prevent the blood from pooling in his extremities Why, as Lady Dustin puts it, "Roose plays with men," since they are so short-lived that their lives are not worth much And most importantly, why he not only did not execute Ramsey for killing Dom but rewarded him with legitimacy, lands and titles. Roose, if you'll recall, knew Ramsey was his right away just by the eyes. So if Dom was in fact the son of Brandon Stark, then he is not a candidate for skin-changing. By ridding himself of Dom and raising Ramsey, Roose now has a path to not only maintain the lordship of the Dreadfort but work his way back into Winterfell. I say back because it seems that he has served as the King of Winter before in the guise of figures like Brandon "Ice-Eyes." Incidentally, this would also be how Stark blood became infused with Ice, which, when combined with Targaryen Fire blood in the form of Jon Snow, we get the Song of Ice and Fire wrapped up in a single person. People call this "Bolt-on" but it's actually a lot more nuanced than Roose as your garden-variety vampire/zombie. Sometime in the next two books, look for Roose to die, and then see if you don't notice Ramsey suddenly calming down, start speaking in whispers and leeching himself.
  12. You're still not getting it. It's not that he is afraid of picking her up, it's that once he has her he is at the mercy of whatever royal ship decides to stop and board him if the plan and his role in it has been uncovered. By waiting until dawn, he can be absolutely certain that he is in the clear.
  13. Honoring and protecting women is a basic tenet of chivalry -- although it was equal parts subjugation and control. And as I said, regardless of who drinks first, the idea that Lady O could create some sort of distraction for the entire time it takes for your theoretical strangler to work is nonsensical -- talk about a sure-fire way to draw attention to yourself. The text is perfectly clear: the pies are served seconds after the cutting. They are right there, out of sight, right where Lady O is last seen. Joffrey has never been known to be a heavy drinker. Not one. I have read the interview. All the questions were about what just took place on the show and Martin says he introduced the poison earlier in the book, just like virtually everything in the show was introduced in the book. Yes, both the book and the show had elements of the morality of murdering a 13yo boy, but it is still murder whether you end up killing your intended target or not. To say that this proves intent in the book is your imagination at work. To take one word off the top of Martin's head during a live interview and say this trumps all of the the clear and compelling evidence in the actual text that rules out the wine is just silly. There are all sorts of real-world substances that cause human organs to constrict. A prime example is nicotine, which causes both the blood vessels and the bronchial tubes to close up, which is why smoking is so bad for your heart and blood pressure. If you were to concentrate it and drink it, it very well could have the same effect on the throat. You honestly think that LF is doing this just for kicks? I agree he has a massive ego, but @Tygett Greenshield is 100% correct in saying that all of his actions are a means to an end, his accumulation of power, not just to spread misery throughout the land. The only reason he involved the Starks was because King Robert wanted to make Ned his hand. If not for that, sure, he would have stirred up trouble between any of the major houses, which would have been supremely easy if Jaime was made hand instead.
  14. No, as I've explained in the past, he could not pick up Sansa until he was sure the coast was clear. That's why he waits until dawn when he can be absolutely certain that there are no warships prowling the bay looking for him. Essentially, you are clinging to the notion that LF has no way of knowing anything, and risking his own life in the process, by ignoring the fact that boats can and do move over water with great ease, all to preserve a theory that Martin would deliberately, or accidentally, introduce an entire string of circumstances to create a red herring that virtually no one can see and that generates an extra page-and-a-half of completely superfluous text in a novel that is already 300+ pages over-long.
  15. Not only that, but Oswell has literally been rowing for hours before LF's ship finally appears: "The eastern sky was vague with the first hint of dawn..." Plenty of time for LF to have been close enough to KL for a fast cutter to bring him all the news he needs. Heck, he might have even been tied up on the docks. Once again, the absurd reasoning that people use to justify the wine. As if Littlefinger, on the most momentous night of his life, the single most important, riskiest and consequential action he's ever taken, would have no eyes and ears in the Red Keep and no possible way to find out what has happened other than the reliable Ser Dontos. His plan is to set all of this in motion and then literally sit on his boat, all night long in the pitch dark way out in the bay and just wait for Sansa to come rowing up out of the mist. He has absolutely no reason to think something could possibly go wrong with this cockamamie plan, that Lady O or Garlan or any one of these "loyal servants" would get caught, spill the beans under torture and that the bay is now swarming with royal ships looking to drag him back to the capital in chains. Absurd.
  16. Lol, the funniest part about the wine theory, aside from the fact that it is both physically and logistically impossible, is how Lady O comes to trust Littlefinger in this plan. Let's go all the way back to Highgarden: LF shows up as an envoy of the Iron Throne to broker an alliance between Lannister and Tyrell anchored by the marriage of Margaery to Joffrey. While LF's men are spreading tales of Joffrey's atrocities, LF is assuring the Tyrells that these are all lies and that Joffrey is a fine, noble, upstanding young king and would be a dutiful and loyal husband. So based on his word and his word alone, the Tyrells agree to the match. Then at some point, LF approaches Lady O and says "guess what, I lied. Joffrey is really a vile, murderous psycho, and now Margaery's life is in imminent danger. But here is what we can do about it..." And then Lady O, gullible fool that she is, never once thinks that she has any reason to mistrust the lying, scheming, backstabbing prick who got Margaery into this mess in the first place, but then continues to trust him right up to the point where he has her and the entire Tyrell family in the throne room, surrounded by Lannister guards, while one of them drops poison into a giant golden chalice that is sitting in plain view of literally a thousand people. Oh, and all the while, the lying, scheming backstabber is safely aboard his ship in the bay ready to split for Braavos at the first sign of trouble. I would ask wine supporters where they get the idea that Lady O is this blinking stupid, but they have no proof or text for anything else they claim is true so there is no reason for them to provide evidence of this either.
  17. Wine may be the preferred method but it is a huge stretch to say that it is the only way. And besides: So there's your wine, right there in Joffrey mouth with the pie and the poison. And if you look carefully, you'll notice that approximately five seconds after he swallows for the first time, putting the poison in contact with his throat, "His words broke up in a fit of coughing", which is another way of saying "the words caught in his throat." Exact same effect, exact same timeline as Cressen. Undeniable. All the rest of your post is irrelevant. The show is not the book and the book is not the show, and SSMs where Martin is referencing the show, the book and historical precedence can hardly be taken as proof of anything.
  18. People ask questions. I answer them. My answers, of course, have the benefit of actual text and facts to support them.
  19. Lol, a 30-second distraction. Lady O has to first get Joffrey to drink first, breaking thousands of years of tradition, then before Margy takes her turn she has to create some kind of commotion for a half-minute, only to have Joffrey drop dead, at which point Lady O turns to Cersei and Tywin and says "whew, it's a good thing that happened or Margaery would be dead, too. Tough luck for you."
  20. All the more reason why Lady O would never in a million years poison the wine. This is a time for toasts, and since it apparently takes a good 30 seconds for the poison to take affect, Margaery would be a goner even if she broke thousands of years of chivalric tradition and let Joffrey drink first. Read closely and you'll see that the poison was the in pie, not the wine, and that Tyrion was the target, not Joffrey.
  21. No, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for him to be a Reyne or a Castamere, or perhaps even a Blackfyre.
  22. This? This is the technology that's going to take over the world? How sad.
  23. Sure, he can still crap by himself. And it's not like they had TP or bidets in the middle ages. Just out of curiosity, Angel, what were you doing when this thought jumped into your head?
  24. Well, one more thought and then I'll bow out. Drogo and Rhaego are not as dead as Viserys. First of all, as I mentioned, the Dothraki are not fully dead until their bodies have been consumed by fire. You say this is just a belief, so it has no bearing. But beliefs matter greatly in this world. Kings blood has magical power not because it is actually different from normal blood, but because people believe it is different. This is why Melisandre seeks it out for her spells, even if it is bastard blood. Secondly, with both Drogo and Rhaego only recently dead, who is to say that their bodies still did not maintain some essence of life? To this day, science cannot draw a hard line between life and death. Recent studies (admittedly after the book was written) on mice have shown that even four days after death their bodies are still showing genetic activity -- in fact it appears to increase. Other studies show that neurons and other cells can remain alive long after death. Is this life? That's for philosophers to ponder, but it does leave some wiggle room to explain how Drogo's and Rhaego's "lives" could have paid for death on the pyre while Viserys, thoroughly dead for months and hundreds of miles away could not. Which leads me to: As you note, that scene takes place after Mirri has just killed baby Rhaego, months after and hundreds of miles away from Vaes Dothrak and Viserys. So how you can claim beyond doubt that this is Viserys animating the egg and not Rhaego is beyond me. I'm all for theorizing, but it's nice to have some shred of evidence to back it up. There is none that I can see that points to Viserys as Viserion, and plenty, as I've listed that points to Rhaego. The text is plain: Only life can pay for death. The only lives in the pyre were MDD, Drogo and (I suspect) Rhaego.
  25. If any death at any time could pay for life, there would have been no reason for Jaquen to give three lives to Arya for the Red God. Any three of countless meaningless deaths in the past would have paid for those lives. If the souls of someone's dearly departed can simply jump into their dragon egg, then there would have been no mystery as to how to hatch them all those years. There would have been multiple dragons born at Summerhall and the pyromancers would have had no problem hatching all of the soul-seeded eggs lying around after the Dance. I think in this case, we can take the words "Only death can pay for life" at face value, and the only deaths involved at the time the dragons were given life were MMD, and the still not-completely-dead-in-the-metaphysical-sense bodies of Drogo and Rhaego. Re-read all of Dany's interactions with her growing dragons: Drogo is frequently off doing his own thing, Rhaegal sits and watches and keeps his distance, Viserion flies right over to Dany, pawing at her, climbing all over her and then let's out a wail when she tries to push him away. Maybe if I have time this weekend I'll track down some of the relevant quotes, but it is always Viserion clinging to her. If Viserion is acting like this because this is what a baby Viserys would do, then Drogon wouldn't be fierce and independent like he is -- unless Drogo came out of the womb ready for battle and aiming to conquer the world. The names have little to do with whose life infused which dragon. Drogo was the obvious name for the darkest, fiercest dragon, but the others were named to honor Dany's brothers, not the lives that empowered them. No, sorry, Viserys was not pathetic and clingy by the time he died. He beat Dany when he felt she was giving him commands and then backed off when she defended herself. He didn't run for her protection. Then he drew a blade in Vaes Dothrak and threatened to kill Dany and the StMtW in front of Drogo and all his bloodriders -- foolish, yes, but not clingy and certainly not weak. Only at the very last instant did he turn to Dany for help, but it was too late. I checked, but I can't find any text that suggests Viserion's egg was moving right after Viserys died. Rhaego starts kicking in Dany's womb on the way back from the market, right after the incident with the wine-seller, but then she puts all three eggs an a brazier and the light and flame dance around them, but no indication that the eggs themselves are moving.