John Suburbs

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  1. Who tried to kill Bran?

    Not exactly. Cat describes the letter as a warning that the queen has killed Jon Arryn. She doesn't say that it also says for Ned to come south -- that was her own conclusion. Ned, meanwhile, "had reached a very different conclusion" and only changes his mind at the urging of Cat and Luwin. But again, the whole point of LF's manipulation of Joffrey is not to prevent Ned from coming south. It's to get Joffrey to act and thereby stir up trouble between Stark and Lannister.
  2. Why has Arya lost her edge?

    OK, but if she has remorse on the ship for not giving him mercy, then at the time she left him she was doing so because she felt he did not deserve that mercy. So her decision to leave had nothing to do with not being able to bring herself to kill a friend -- indeed, she is just about to do it when his eyes pop open -- and everything to do with making him suffer for his past crimes -- regardless of whatever self-serving motive he had for bringing her back to her family. So what I'm getting at is her state of mind at the moment she left Sandor, and I don't see how anyone could consider it an act of kindness on her part when she deliberately denies him the mercy he is begging for and leaves him to suffer the crueler, more agonizing death.
  3. Littlefinger, Doran, Olenna ...and Oberyn plot?

    There is every indication in the text that the poison is in the pie and most definitely not in the wine. Just look at the enormous time discrepancy between the two poisons. Cressen drops in seconds, while Joffrey goes on for half a minute or more with no visible reaction -- a five- or six-fold delay. It is only after he eats the pie and then washes it down with wine that Joffrey starts to choke -- exactly the same time frame as Cressen, give or take a second or two. Also note that Joffrey's wine is supposedly poisoned to the extent that it has turned purple, while Cressen's doesn't not appear unusual at all, and Joffrey is consuming vastly larger quantities as well. And let's not forget this little tidbit: "It's, kof, the pie, noth, -- kof, pie." Joffrey can feel everything happening in his throat and mouth, including what is causing his distress, and it's not the wine. The dwarf joust was just a final dig at an enemy that LF has been trying to remove since the beginning of the story. And it is further evidence of how easy LF can manipulate Joffrey. So why on earth would he want to remove such a chaotic, easily manageable piece from the board? Also, if the dwarf joust doesn't make sense because it is not part of a larger plot, then what was the point of all that business about the pie after Joffrey drank his poison? In a novel that is already topping 420,000 words -- the longest in the series -- why have this extra page-and-a-half of text for absolutely no purpose? As for the conversation on the boat, remember that this does not take place until almost dawn and the bells have been ringing all night. So if LF was closer to shore at any time during the night, or if he had a means to get information from the RK quickly, both of which are extremely likely given the seriousness of the crime he is about to commit, then he would naturally have news of Joffrey's death long before Sansa showed up. At that point, he has to pretend like everything is going according to plan because there is no way Sansa will be able to play her part as Alayne if she has even the slightest doubt that LF knows what he's doing. The Tyrells have absolutely no reason to kill Joffrey, as I mentioned above. The whole reason for the wedding is not to give Margaery a safe, happy life, but to produce a blood tie to the Iron Throne. Now, instead of having a Tyrell heir to the IT in a year, they have to wait at least five years for Tommen to come of age. That is an extremely long time for a medieval society at war, during which anything could happen, including the deaths of Tommen, Margaery or both. They need an heir, or two, as quick as possible in order to cement their house to the ruling family. And this is even if Tommen is offered, which wouldn't be the case if there was even the slightest suspicion that the Tyrells were behind Joffrey's murder. Tyrion only took the rap after an entire series of unpredictable events that allowed him to have his hands all over the chalice both before and after the poisoning. If even one of those things did not happen exactly as planned, there would not have been any plausible way to frame him, so suspicion would have fallen on the only other person to have touched it: Margaery. Joffrey's death was a huge setback for both Littlefinger and the Tyrells.
  4. Who tried to kill Bran?

    Or, ...Rob offers the job to Jaime, who provides even more chaos than Ned ever would, without any prompting from Littlefinger at all. Rob hates Stannis. There is no way he would appoint him as Hand. But I think you guys are misunderstanding me. Littlefinger has no interest in whether Ned comes south or not. He's just using that story to get Joffrey to act. The real goal is to stir up trouble between wolf and lion.
  5. Who tried to kill Bran?

    How so?
  6. Who tried to kill Bran?

    Here is how Littlefinger could be behind the assassination attempt without knowing about Bran's fall or anything else happening at Winterfell: Before the royal party leaves King's Landing, LF knows why Robert is making such a long, arduous progress: to ask Ned to be Hand. The time is also ripe for Houses Stark and Lannister to start butting heads. So while still in the capital, LF gets Joffrey alone and tells him that Ned becoming hand is a grave threat to both Joffrey and House Lannister, something which would be reinforced if Joff hears Cersei and/or Jaime arguing about it. LF also tells Joffrey that the only way to prevent Ned from becoming hand would be if a major tragedy, say, the death of one of the children, were to befall the Starks, forcing Ned to decline the appointment. Joffrey takes it from there. He hires the catspaw, gives him the dagger and tells him how to use the library fire to get Bran alone. This explains the clumsiness of the plan (it was all Joffrey, no involvement from LF at this point) and why the attempt did not occur until after the royal party had left Winterfell: for a while it appeared that the problem had been solved because Bran was sure to die. When it became evident he would live, and Ned took the job anyway, Joffrey set the plot in motion at the last minute. If Bran hadn't fallen, Joffrey would have selected one of the other children: probably Sansa. This also squares with the SSMs: Joffrey did do it. The only thing we don't know is why. P.S. to those who think it was Mance: How and why would Mance involve Joffrey on the assassination? What other explanation is there for Joffrey's reaction to Tyrion's mention of the dagger except that he knows all about the attempt on Bran.
  7. The sacrifice

    Or it could be that, like most legends, the AA story is more fiction than fact, and if the prophecy is fulfilled it will be done in a way that is completely unrecognizable from the old tales.
  8. Littlefinger, Doran, Olenna ...and Oberyn plot?

    The large pie with the pigeons in it is inedible. It has live birds crawling around in it. Also, Tyrion's piece is served within seconds of the cutting. Literally, it goes cut, pigeons, applause, twirl, and Tyrion gets his pie. That means they can't be cutting pieces off the big pie and walking them to the head table, nor can they be walking pies into the room after the ceremony concludes, or else Tyrion would not have been served so quickly. And indeed, the text makes no mention of all this cutting and plating of pies in the throne room, even though Tyrion has been giving us a moment-by-moment account of everything he sees and hears throughout the entire scene. The only realistic possibility is that the pies for eating were cut and plated before the ceremony and then placed in Tyrion's immediate vicinity -- either in the hands of a servant or on a table behind the head table -- so they can be served immediately at its conclusion. So there is plenty of time for Lady O to do the pie (she only needs a spit second), and at best she only has to make sure one person is not watching -- the servant holding the pie. The crystal would not dissolve as rapidly in the pie as in the wine, but it doesn't have to dissolve completely to be effective. Remember, Joffrey: "See, it's good. A bit dry though. Needs washing down." Then he takes a chug of wine and about five seconds after that, just like Cressen, "the words caught in his throat." So from this we can infer that the crystal was dissolving in the pie, causing it to become dry, and the wine would only speed up the dissolution process as it entered his throat. At best, Tyrion would have bitten into something hard, which he would assume was a bone, and by the time he realizes it's not, it's too late. Garlan is not needed to poison Tyrion, only Joffrey. But in any event, I'm not sure how you can square Garlan being too nice of a guy to poison Tyrion, but not too nice to poison Joffrey. Garlan is an anointed knight, descended from the line that literally invented chivalry. To have him stoop to poison -- a weapon for women, cowards and eunuchs -- would mean he is in fact a sniveling coward, which is belied by the fact that he waded into the thick of battle on the Blackwater to dispatch multiple foes. We also have the problem of Littlefinger knowing ahead of time that Joffrey will place the chalice close enough to Garlan -- not a foot to the left or to the right -- and then leave it there for the cutting ceremony. This is utterly impossible, unless we are now going to assume LF has magical prophetic abilities. As for why the Tyrells need to kill Tyrion, that takes a bit of explaining, but I'll give you the short answer: Tyrion could at any moment father the next heir to Winterfell on Sansa. This would create a blood tie between the Lannisters and the leading house in the north, adding to their other recent gains in the Stormlands, Crownlands, the Iron Throne, the Riverlands and the Neck. This is a direct threat to the hegemony that Highgarden has maintained for thousands of years, primarily through the marriages between Gardner/Tyrell, Hightower and Redwyne. And since Tywin has shown himself to be a brutal enemy who doesn't just force rival houses into submission but burns their lands, murders their smallfolk, razes their castles and exterminates entire families right down to the stable boys, this is the most serious situation that Lady O, or any Tyrell in history has ever faced. It's certainly more frightening than Margaery getting a few black eyes from Joffrey.
  9. Littlefinger, Doran, Olenna ...and Oberyn plot?

    All sorts of ways. Most people are comfortable with Lady Olenna's trusted servants, but I don't think that's necessary. We do know that Lady O was standing somewhere near Tyrion just before the pie ceremony began. She is on her feet, and most likely somewhere behind the head table. It's up on a dais, so she isn't likely to be in front of him, down on the throne room floor, nor standing on the table. We also know that the pie was served moments after the ceremony concluded -- literally within a few seconds -- and for the same reasons as Lady O, it most likely came from behind Tyrion. So Lady O, the pie and the poison are all in the same general area during the cutting. All she would have to do is make sure that the servant holding the plate is looking upward when she tucks the poison into the pie. Contrast this with the wine, which is in a three-foot chalice sitting front and center on the head table and in plain view of virtually everyone in the entire room. Not only does this require quite a stretch from the only likely poisoner, Garlan, but he has to do it while Sansa and Tyrion are literally standing right next to it. To get an idea of the challenge this represents, stand a yardstick straight up on your kitchen table about three feet inward and to your left or right. Now imagine trying to reach the top with two short people right in front of it and hundreds of people facing you from nearly every direction. Even if Garlan could make this one-in-a-million move, the risk is simply too great for Lady O to even contemplate considering the entire Tyrell family would likely lose their heads if he fails.
  10. Not every character arc is going to build and peak within each book. With so many multiple storylines, you can only have a so much high drama in the last chapter(s), so some people are going to hit their marks at the beginning or middle and then leave off on a mediocre note.
  11. top character

    Dolorous Ed, hands down
  12. Why did the loyalists yield when Rhegar died?

    This The Trident was lost, but whatever remnants of the loyalist army would have headed south to the capital to carry on the fight, while the rest would have simply deserted. Once the top leaders are dead, there is no real way to coordinate movements or mount any kind of affective strategy, so it's better to live and fight another day than throw yourself into a lost cause.
  13. Mirri Maz Duur and Bronze Yohn Royce

    Metals of all kinds were believed to hold magic powers, and the older the metal the more powerful the magic. So in an age of steel, a bronze object with runes would appear to be very magical, especially if it was an old one. In aSoIaF, of course, there is every possibility that the magic is real.
  14. What do we know about septa Mordane?

    Some Anagrams for Septa Mordane: Dream On Paste Ran Tapes Mode Me, Pasta Or Ned Me Adore Pants Pardon Me Seat Repeat Demons Mean to Spread Drone Eats Pam Atoms Ran Deep Stone Made Rap No, Mad As Peter
  15. What do we know about septa Mordane?

    No real backstory on SM. Most likely she came from Riverrun since the north still follows the old gods, and yes she is probably highborn given her speech and bearing. But I don't see any indication than she is anything other than what she claims to be: a septa of the faith charged with tutoring the Stark girls.
  16. Meanwhile in Stormlands

    Well, sorry for the confusion, but I kicked off this part of the discussion with the point about no storms in the stormlands this autumn, and then the comment was made about the big storm coming from the north, which I understand perfectly. But obviously, I was curious as to what that had to do with the stormlands not getting any storms. But I guess the answer is: absolutely nothing. Thanks for clearing that up.
  17. Sansa and the Tyrells

    No, I'm talking about the idea that Lady O is so terrified that Joffrey is going to hurt Margaery that she goes to the extreme measure of killing him, and in such a way that all but guarantees that someone will see the poisoning and in a situation in which the entire Tyrell family (save one) is surrounded by Lannister guards. There is no evidence that either Lady O or Margaery are worried about Joffrey in the slightest, and ample evidence that Joffrey is not only not going to hurt her but has fallen for her big time. As I said above, maybe someday that will change. But that could be months if not years in the future. If it ever becomes necessary to remove him, it can be done privately with no witnesses and disguised to look like an accident, and by then Margaery will have produced one if not two heirs to the IT, and she will rule as queen regent until they come of age. But it will take far more than a black eye and a bloody lip to get to that point -- her life would have to be in imminent danger. You seem to misunderstand which pie got the poison. I'm not talking about the big pie that had all the pigeons in it -- nobody is going to eat any part of that. I'm talking about Tyrion's pie -- the slice that was placed directly in front of him immediately after the cutting ceremony. From this we can conclude two things: that all the edible pies were prepared, cut and plated ahead of time, and that the ones meant for the head table were right behind it as the ceremony was underway -- either on a table or already in the hands of servants. This would be the same area that Lady O is last seen, just moment's before the big pie comes in, standing and leaning on her cane. So there you have Lady O, the poison and the pie -- Tyrion's pie, meant only for Tyrion -- all in the same area right when the poison was deployed. Lady O also knows that Tyrion will definitely eat at least one bite of his pie because it is not just another course in the feast; it is the Wedding Pie and "It's ill luck not to eat the pie." Like our wedding cake, all guests are expected to eat at least one bite as a courtesy to the bride and groom, and she even has a very good idea as to which bite he will take: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison. Sorry, this idea that people would think that Joffrey simply choked is a non-starter. How to explain the disappearance of Sansa? How would they expect Sansa to be of any use if Tyrion is still alive, which he would be if he isn't framed for the murder? How could they guarantee that Joffrey would be eating and drinking at the same time? You can't choke on wine. Tyrion has to be poisoned at the wedding because 1) they have no way of getting to him at any other time, since they don't know where he is going to eat, drink or be merry at any given time, and it's not like they have trusted servants all over the Red Keep, and 2) they need to create a diversion to cover Sansa's escape. Lady Olenna is barely half a head taller than Tyrion. The chalice is three feet tall and sitting so far from the edge of the table that Tyrion has to climb into his seat just to reach the stem. How is Lady O supposed to drop the poison over the lip of the chalice? She would literally have to climb onto the table to do it. The closer you look at it, you'll realize that it's the wine that is overly complicated and requires us to assume that literally nothing and no one is at it seems, while the pie conforms to the text and actual reality in every detail.
  18. Meanwhile in Stormlands

    Abnormal cold is hardly a storm. Storms have wind, rain, tidal surge, destruction; Danaerys Stormborn was born in a storm that lashed Dragonstone (in the stormlands) harder than any storm in living memory. This is what the stormlands are known for and what they are mysteriously not getting this autumn. Honestly, I am still completely baffled at what you are trying to say. Are you arguing that the stormlands have been called the stormlands for millennia because once, 8000 years ago, a big cold swept down from the north and crippled the entire continent, and now it appears to be happening again? Doesn't the World Book directly contradict this? So instead of just another one-sentence quip, could you do me a favor and explain in some detail what the coming of the Others and the cold from the north has anything at all to do with the naming of the stormlands?
  19. Sansa and the Tyrells

    No, it wasn't in the cream. It was the in pie itself. No, there have been no fights to the death. Nobody ever mentions them, nobody laments the poor lord who lost his life to Joffrey's whim, nobody is talking about the arrival of bloodsport in the Seven Kingdoms. You have three quotes of Joffrey shooting off his mouth, nothing more. Produce some text that has the fights actually happening and I'll concede the point, but as it stands now, these fights are completely imaginary. When Stannis Baratheon sent envoys under a peace banner from Storm's End to treat with Mace Tyrell, Lady Olenna's own son had their heads cut off and launched over the castle walls. It's a harsh world and it takes a lot more than bruises on a highborn or the deaths of a few smallfolk to send someone like Lady O into a panic.
  20. Sansa and the Tyrells

    Well, he was hardly a puppy with Sansa. He was polite and dutiful, but he never whisked her away or twirled her merrily. And you should note that until the Trident, Joffrey had no reason to turn on Sansa, and when that changed, so did Joffrey -- no attempt to hid his feelings at all. Later, at the riverside, he is, again, polite and proper but as soon as Cersei left, Joffrey dropped her like a hot rock to the tender care of the Hound. So no, Joffrey is terrible at hiding his true feelings toward people. He is, in fact, one of the most transparent, easily manipulated characters in the book. And it is also a fact that Sansa's and Margaery's relationship with Joffrey are not even remotely similar. Sansa witnessed Joffrey's humiliation on the Trident and then continued to correct him and chide him in virtually every conversation they had in Clash. Add to that, she is the daughter of traitors, brother to a usurper and she has absolutely no one -- no family, no friends, no swords -- to look out for her in King's Landing, which makes her a perfect target for the hostility that Joffrey feels for her personally and the political threat she represents. Margaery has none of this baggage. She is the key to the alliance with House Tyrell, she has an army at her back and a brother in the kingsguard. Plus, she manipulates Joffrey like a pro and is a smoking hot 17-year-old who will take 13yo Joffrey to bed and literally rock his world night after night. He is like putty in her hands, and she has absolutely no reason whatsoever to fear for her safety for months if not years. And if she does appear in court with even a scratch on her, you can bet that Tywin will be in Joffrey's face reading him the riot act for jeopardizing the alliance that they both so desperately need. So my point remains firm: Lady O has absolutely no reason to take such a drastic act as regicide, and in a manner that has virtually no chance of succeeding at a time when her entire family is at risk, all to prevent a problem that may or may not arise months if not years in the future when Margaery is mother to the new king and Joffrey can be gotten rid of easily and with no witnesses.
  21. Why has Arya lost her edge?

    I don't see how you can conclude that from that quote. It's not like she is saying she should have given the gift in order to punish the Hound, but that in retrospect maybe she should have done him a kindness. Just before that, she is reminiscing about how the Hound killed Polliver and she did the Tickler and the boy with the pimple, whom she wouldn't have killed if he hadn't grabbed her. So at this point, she is in a reflective mood, reconsidering her decision, unlike the moment she left the Hound and denied the him the mercy he was begging for, not out of kindness but for spite.
  22. Sansa and the Tyrells

    And yet we hear nothing about the poor sobs who lost their lives because Joffrey forced them to duel to the death. This is nothing more than a little braggart shooting his mouth off -- all talk and no action. Lady O has been through four rebellions and the Mad King years, when high lords were being roasted alive with wildfire. She knows what real suffering is, and a few black eyes is kids stuff to her. All this is irrelevant anyway. Joffrey's attitude toward Margaery is what's important here, and the text is clear that he's like a puppy around her. I'll go so far as to say that Margy is probably the only person on the planet that Joffrey doesn't despise, and the way she coos and fawns over him show that she knows how to play him like a Stradivarius. So there is ample text that proves Margaery is in no danger from Joffrey, nor does she or Lady O believe that she is -- certainly not to the degree that they would risk the lives of the entire Tyrell family save one (and quite a few Redwynes) on the faintest of hopes that they can drop a poison into a three foot chalice without being seen by one of the hundreds of people in the room who have direct line of sight to it.
  23. http://www.theoriesarecoming.com/#/
  24. Sansa and the Tyrells

    Joffrey, the one who: and Joffrey only mistreats people who he is displeased with, and Margaery has given him no excuse whatever to draw has wrath. Maybe she will someday, but there are much cleaner and far less riskier ways of removing him than poisoning him in front of hundreds of witnesses when your entire family is surrounded by Lannister guards. And by then Margy will have provided one or two new Tyrells for the Iron Throne and she can rule as regent, since Cersei will have been shipped off to her next husband long ago. And even if Margaery does get the Sansa treatment, both she and Lady O know that a few black eyes and a bloody lip are well worth the price of the Iron Throne. Many queens, both real and fictional, have endured far worse for their crowns. The only way Lady O would take such a risk with her entire family is if she is absolutely convinced that Margaery will not survive the night with Joffrey, and that is clearly not the case. He is overjoyed to be marrying her instead of mopey Sansa. Margy is in absolutely no danger from Joffrey: she states this outright and the text confirms it. And there is no evidence that Joffrey forced anyone to fight to the death. He says it, but it doesn't happen.
  25. Meanwhile in Stormlands

    I guess we're on two different tracks here. The normal storms that hammer the stormlands from the south are the reason why the stormlands are called the stormlands. The "storm" from the north may be larger in scope, but it can't possibly be the reason for the name because it only comes once every few thousand millennia (if that) and would do far worse damage to the north, the riverlands, the vale and everything else that is north of the stormlands. So it's the northern storm that is irrelevant to the name of the stormlands. I think Sam says one of the old books says the Others might appear during snowstorms, but that is the only link I've seen between Others and storms. There is more correlation between the Others and cold, but no one is even sure if one brings the other.