John Suburbs

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Everything posted by John Suburbs

  1. Possible does not make it likely. It's just as likely all of the maybes in your post are maybe nots: That Varys did not set up the wine merchant, that the wine merchant is not a Faceless Man (I mean, really, given what we've seen of the FM, do you actually think this is even remotely possible?) The simplest explanation is that Jorah was torn between his desire to go home and his love for Dany. He played a hunch, given what he'd just learned, and ended up saving her life. To think that Varys could manipulate that level of detail from another continent is giving him far more ability that's he's shown. And in the end it would all be unnecessary, because the attempt produces the same affect whether it succeeds or fails: Drogo invades Westeros sooner rather than later. That was their ultimate goal.
  2. Love that the Hound cut through all the bullshit once again: "Aw Dondarrion, will you shut your hole? Are you going to let us out or not?"
  3. I see blue and orange both before and after the blink, although after has a little more orange and a little less blue.
  4. Regardless of whether the assassination attempt succeeds or fails, it will lead to enmity between Stark and Lannister. Sure, he has no reason to love Starks, Tullys or Lannisters, but that still doesn't mean he needs war between any of them to pursue his goals. All he really needs is chaos: Lann vs. Stark, Lann vs. Tully and Stark, Lann vs. Tyrell, Tyrell vs. Stark, Dorne vs. everyone ... as long as the king's peace is broken Littlefinger benefits.
  5. Everybody knew the Northern army was marching south. They were hardly undetected. The feint at Riverrun worked because Robb sent a decoy army of mostly foot soldiers down the kingsroad while the horse made its way through friendly territory toward Riverrun. They were seen as liberators come to rescue them from the invading Lannister army, so no ravens were sent. Yes, they did a good job of taking out Jaime's outriders, which is a lot easier to do in the woodlands than in the wide open vistas of the Reach. From the terrain we saw in the show, you wouldn't even need outriders to see that army coming -- just one guy up on a hill would have been enough. The Lannister/Tyrell army met at the headwaters of the Blackwater Rush and sailed to King's Landing quick as you please. That area had already been conquered by Tywin, so all of the castles, keeps and holdfasts would either be held by his men or empty. And even if they were still loyal to Riverrun, they wouldn't bother sending a message to King's Landing anyway. Agreed that this is hardly the biggest blunder in the show, and I'm not complaining about it either. It's only television. But no, the way that battle played out, just like the Battle of the Bastards, there is no way any army that size could sneak up on you undetected.
  6. Um, ravens carry messages. The message would contain the news that a Dothraki horde has just landed on the mainland, and they have a big-ass dragon.
  7. Sorry, I don't buy it. The timing may be doable, but a horde of Dothraki landing anywhere on the mainland -- something that has never happened before -- would be huge news and anyone who saw them would flee right to the nearest castle, which would send ravens to anyone and everyone to come and repel the invasion. Even if they did land at the Wendwater and it was only a day's march, you still have a fleet sailing into the bay, which would be seen by thousands, then they have to anchor somewhere, row ten thousand men and horses onto shore, form up, begin the march... So like the Vale's surprise attack on the Bolton's, there is simply no way an army of that size could get anywhere close to its destination without word of its movements arriving beforehand. At best, you can have a forced march at night over a relatively short distance, as the Boltons did on the Green Fork, but it's not like your opponent would be completely clueless that you've even taken the field. Ambushes do happen, but not between massive armies marching over open land.
  8. That's the beauty of it. It doesn't matter to Littlefinger if Joffrey succeeds or fails. He (Littlefinger) could care less whether a Stark child lives or dies or whether Ned becomes Hand. All he needs is hostility between wolf and lion, so even a failed attempt is enough to get the ball rolling, as indeed it did. And as long as LF used subtle language to put the idea in Joffrey's head (and LF is a master at worldplay}, he can always claim innocence if Joffrey does spill the beans. LF does not need Ned as Hand to cause chaos in the realm. He doesn't even need it to be strictly a wolf/lion thing; conflict between any of the major houses will do. And frankly, Jaime as Hand would probably do just as well because Jaime is hot-headed and utterly incapable of seeing anything but his sword as a solution to problems.
  9. Ahh, thanks. Been a while since I read that chapter. But it still doesn't change anything. The letter to Viserys was also what informed Jorah that he could go home if he killed Dany. So there is nothing to suggest that he received separate instructions from Varys or anyone. And yes, the news of that royal decree would have gotten to VD just as fast as that letter, and Jorah, being a smart man, threw caution into the wind when he saw Dany accepting wine from a stranger. He even says himself that he did not know for certain the wine was poisoned until the seller refused to drink. So no conspiracy here, not plots within plots, no staging. A simple letter and a man who knows how to read between the lines.
  10. Exactly, it was a brilliant move on Ned's part: a cover story for the cover story covering the truth. But even so, a supposedly smart guy like Varys should have thought for just a moment, "whew, good thing there's not another royal bastard, only the one Ned fathered... wait a minute." Too bad Ned couldn't keep up that level of subterfuge when he became Hand. I'm wondering if Ned didn't even concoct the Ashara Dayne part of the lie. Mayhaps she faked her own death because she saw that the story as is was too transparent.
  11. Doubtful he knows about Jon, or else he would most definitely have made it his business to keep an eye on him and there is no indication that he gave Jon a second thought. This was probably Varys' biggest boner. First, he knows as well as anyone who much trouble royal bastards can bring to the realm. So when Rhaegar first made off with Lyanna, his first thought, along with everyone else's, would have been fear (or joy, depending on Varys' motivations) that another bastard would soon be born -- and this only a few short years after finally seeing the last of the Blackfyres. Then Ned returns from the ToJ with word of Lyanna's death, and thankfully the thousand rapes over those months did not result in a child. But when Ned the Honorable shows up at Winterfell with a bastard of his own from some unwashed commoner, Varys, supposedly one of the smartest men in the realm, doesn't even wonder about it? The only other explanation is that Varys knows for a fact that Rhaegar and Lyanna were not actually together at the ToJ and that Jon is not actually a Targaryen -- perhaps a Hightower or a Dayne or a Whent. But if that is the case, why all the secrecy by Ned?
  12. I don't know how much we can muddle between the books and the show on this one but my understanding was always that it was part of Robert's arsenal that came with him on his progress to Winterfell. So it could very well have been a Targaryen blade originally. My take on the whole assassination plot goes like this: Before they even left KL, Littlefinger pulls Joffrey aside and tells him what a terrible thing it would be for Robert, Cersei, House Lannister and, well, everything if Ned were to become Hand. The only thing that would prevent Ned from taking the job is a major family tragedy, such as the death of one of the children. And, my my, isn't that a nice dagger your father has? When Bran falls, it appears as if the problem has resolved itself. But when Bran survives and Ned decides to come south anyway, Joffrey nicks the dagger, passes it to the catspaw and tells him to back and finish the job. So in this way, we have Littlefinger as the instigator of the whole thing, even though he knows nothing about Bran's fall or anything else happening at Winterfell, but the clumsy plan was all Joffrey. And BTW, after the Bran plot failed, I also believe that Joffrey intended to kill Sansa on the Trident, or at least despoil her, in a last ditch effort to scotch Ned's appointment and undo the marriage contract. Too bad they came upon Arya and Mycah first.
  13. At least it would give Pod some relevance to the story. He's been pretty much dead wood for the last two seasons at least.
  14. Like I said, if Bran can have a vision about the "chaos ladder" speech that LF gave to Viserys way back when, then he can also see all the other secrets that Littlefinger is keeping: the Arryn murder, the lie to Catelyn about the knife, his betrayal of Ned... Virtually everything bad that has befallen House Stark and the realm itself. Therefore, from LF's POV, Bran has to go before he can bring all of this to light. Well, he has no choice. If Bran spills the beans, it's game-over for LF. But it's also unlikely that he will succeed, so either way, it looks like game over for LF, finally. But you never know... I can't remember exactly what was said in that scene. But again, if Bran has a vision and Sansa then retrieves the relevant message from Maester Lewin's stash, she has all the evidence she needs to snick his head off -- something I'm sure Bronze Yohn would not object to.
  15. Sorry, there is simply no evidence for any of this. We don't know what was in the letter that Jorah received other than that it contained the news that Robert wanted Dany or the baby dead. Whether it went on to instruct Jorah to protect Dany or not is sheer speculation. There is no evidence that anything was staged. Viserys calls the DK ceremony a mummer's farce, but everything about the Dothraki is a mummer's farce. So to conclude that he knows the whole thing is a sham and that the DK have been paid off (I can't imagine with what), is also speculation. Jorah could easily have suspected that the wine was poisoned because he now knows that Robert has set an assassination plot in motion. So of course he is going to extra careful regarding any interaction she has with strangers. Nothing unusual about it at all. Khal Drogo will undoubtedly give Viserys the gift of an army simply for being allowed to take Dany as his bride. There is nothing in the text that remotely hints that it is also contingent on the DK pronouncing their baby to be the second coming. As I argue above, once it became clear that events were moving a bit too fast in Westeros (thanks to Littlefinger), Varys and Illyrio meet in KL and it is shortly after that that the small council meets to discuss Dany's pregnancy and what to do about it. So the simplest explanation is that they decided to break this news now precisely because it will motivate Robert to attempt her assassination, and whether it succeeds or fails it will spur Drogo to march on Westeros sooner rather than later. Certainly a much more straight-forward explanation than, as is too often the case when people try to interpret Martin, imagining multiple plots within plots and a single word here or there as the clue that only smart readers can see. I'm not saying that what you propose is impossible, but the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.
  16. Sorry, I have no idea what your talking about. What letter to Viserys? And since Viserys is already dead at this point, how could Jorah give him a letter? Jorah and Dany are both in VD when Jorah gets his letter, so where exactly is he riding from in order to be there when the letter arrives? No, the letter is not necessarily a direct order to kill Dany. Merely the news that Robert has offered a lordship to whomever does the deed. Jorah is more than capable of fathoming the significance of that without being told. And of course Jorah did not kill Dany. Where on earth did you get that from?
  17. At this point, I doubt V&I cared whether Dany lived or died. She served her purpose by marrying the Khal. If she lives, the Khal will eventually gift Viserys with an army. If she dies, KD will march on Robert's kingdom for justice. In fact, if you align this with the conversation that V&I had in the dragon room -- with Illyrio asking for time and Varys saying there is no time -- their conclusion could very well have been to speed up the Dothraki invasion by killing Dany. Otherwise, they would have to wait until after the new khal is born and whenever Drogo gets around to repaying Viserys for his gift. Meanwhile, Westeros is being torn apart by the Starks and Lannisters.
  18. So what does she do now? Her fleet is destroyed and all her ironmen, save two, are feeding the fishes. She still has her dragons, dothraki and unsullied trapped on the other side of the continent. Meanwhile, Euron controls the seas and Jaime has Highgarden, so no levies are coming from the Reach. My gut says that the first order of business is to unleash three dragons on Euron's fleet. Then she can descend on Jaime's army from the sky to wipe out that power center. That should allow her to retrieve the unsullied and make the march on KL, perhaps sending envoys to whatever power centers remain in Dorne, as well as the Hightowers and Redwynes, who can't be too pleased that the Lannisters have wiped out their kin, the Tyrells. And of course, the corollary to all this is: What do Cersei, Jaime and Euron do?
  19. The time lag is interesting, but it is just as likely that Varys sent Jorah a message that he would get his lands and titles back if he killed Dany himself. Then he spent hours shadowing her throughout the market, writhing in turmoil between his desire to regain his honor vs. his love for Dany. When he saw the exchange of wine, he put two and two together, made his choice and stepped in to save Dany. Therefore, nothing was staged. There were at least two, and probably more, plans to kill Dany.
  20. The only person I can think of who might know is Euron. He's travelled around the world, consorted with warlocks, entered the Doom... I wouldn't even be a bit surprised if it turns out Euron is working for the Night King.
  21. He has to kill Bran, immediately. If Bran's visions are powerful enough for him to know about the chaos ladder speech, then he will soon know everything else about Littlefinger and the fact that virtually all the woe that befell House Stark and the realm in general was his doing. The question is, will he be able to kill Bran without Bran seeing it in a vision first? Probably not. It seems to me that if Jojen was powerful enough to see his own death, then Bran is as well. And it looks like Bran is planning to do battle with the NK before he dies. So if I was a betting man, I would say LF makes another attempt on Bran, fails, and is killed by Arya -- probably by the end of this season. And I'm not sure if it will matter, but LF has another problem at Winterfell. Did you see the look he gave the master in E3 upon hearing that Maester Lewin kept copies of every message sent to Winterfell? Mayhaps there is a certain message that Lady Lysa sent to Catelyn informing her that the Lannisters killed Jon A, which just might jog Sansa's memory about what was said at the Moon Door?
  22. lol, I guess I shouldn't have posted this two hours before the episode aired. Kind of made it a moot question.
  23. Yes, but the Neck is part of the north, even though the Freys answer to Riverrun. In the book, guest right, or some form of it, is honored throughout Westeros, and even on Essos, but only in the north is violation described as an affront to the gods. The rest of the world appears to treat it as more of a courtesy that is necessary for diplomatic relations between houses -- thus, more of a guideline than a law.
  24. There's also plenty of mentions of hours, minutes, seconds, so it seems they measure time pretty much the way we do.
  25. I don't see it either. Viserys calls it a mummer's farce because everything about the Dothraki is a mummer's farce: their language, their clothes, their religion, their savagery... And it is also common practice that new brides of Khals are always brought to the DK ASAP for a horse-heart reading, which in most cases will happen when they are already with child. So the fact that Vis, Illyrio, Jorah and anyone else know this ahead of time is not surprising at all. Plus, if you look at the context in which the conversations about the prophecy take place, it's always in reference to the fact that Drogo will not march his khalasar on anyone, in Essos or Westeros, until the DK have had their say -- not that they are expecting anything major from the prophecy. I'll also echo the question from above: what could Illyrio possibly use to bribe the DK? They don't need money, horses, fine clothes, perfume... And even if he bestows some gift on them, what does he do if they fail to give him the prophecy he wants? March on Dosh Khaleen? Poison them all? They're a thousand leagues deep into Dothraki territory -- about as untouchable as anyone on the planet. So, getting back to the OP, Khal Drogo already considers himself the mightiest Khal in a generation, so is he going to settle for just another Dothraki bride like the thousands of lesser khals that have gone before him? But the blood of old Valyria, daughter of a king, plus a whomping huge dowry in horses and whatnot from Illyiro? Now we're talking.