mormont

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  1. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    Yes, actually. What you said was still unfair and incorrect. Criticise the guy for things he actually does wrong. You're making the assumption of a uniform swing, which under the circumstances is highly tempting but may be very wrong. If in fact that Conservative rise is down to other Unionist party voters switching for tactical reasons, for example, that may play out very differently in the constituencies than direct gains from SNP voters. Take Perthshire, for example: there just aren't enough Labour and Lib Dem voters to flip that constituency. If the gains are concentrated in constituencies where the Tories are way behind, it might not help them in the end.
  2. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    Thing is, it's not even that he should be saying that. I can respect that he doesn't want to betray his principles. I even largely agree with him that the party policy as it stands is wrong. But his position, as so often, is one that's fine for a man who stays on the back-benches out of principle, but not for a party leader in the middle of an election campaign. That is not a position where you can publicly disown, or appear to disown, an agreed party policy because you personally don't agree with it.
  3. Star Wars: Episode VIII predictions

    I think the subtext is there, and I also think the subtext is all there will be. That way Disney can have their cake and eat it too. They can point to the subtextual reading for progressive cred, while not losing viewers in important markets that would find a prominent homosexual romance just too much. Which, to be clear, is absolute bullshit. A Finn/Poe romance would be great and make a lot of sense, story-wise, in my opinion. I just don't think Disney will do it.
  4. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    In the middle of an election campaign? That'll be the perfect time to have an internal party argument about nuclear disarmament, then! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39683989
  5. Bolton's Burnt Book: Mysterious Reading

    He doesn't. But knowing the truth is useful. Writing down his betrayal, on the other hand, would be stupid.
  6. Bolton's Burnt Book: Mysterious Reading

    I think you're all overcomplicating the book issue a bit. Look at the point in the story this occurs. Roose is about to switch sides, yes, as symbolised by the wolf hunt. Stannis has sent out his letters questioning Joffrey's parentage. Now, we know where to find the truth of that issue, because we've been shown it previously. In a book. Roose is reading a copy of that book, probably found in the Harrenhal library, because he wants to know if the accusation is true. And he destroys it because allying with the Lannisters means it's now to his advantage that other people can't read it.
  7. Football - #WengerOut

    Knackering your ligaments, at the age of 35, while involved in contract negotiations. Terrible, terrible timing. Has he ever even had a serious injury before?
  8. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    One from the Twitter mines, on the Scottish council elections: So that's abolishing golf, more horse-riding, women to stay home, free bus passes to go, the introduction of the guillotine and plastic bags banned. I'm trying to imagine a voter who read that lot and thought 'yes, that's the kind of fresh thinking we need! Can councils actually guillotine people?'
  9. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    Well, most politicians of all parties are at least partly motivated by personal interests. And I'm just sayin', if May were an unprincipled opportunist I have a hard time seeing what she'd have done differently. (I think she does have some political principles, by the way, just not particularly on Europe.) Certainly the Cameron camp believed her behaviour during the referendum was motivated by a desire to position herself for the aftermath. But leaving that aside, as things shape up it looks as if Corbyn's may be going to try to ignore the Brexit issue and make this about the NHS, education, and so forth. I'm pondering now whether that might not actually be a smart move. I wonder if the average voter really cares that much about the details of Brexit, or whether they're ready now to move other issues up the priority list.
  10. Football - #WengerOut

    Sad news: Ugo Ehiogu has died. Only 44 years old. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39664839
  11. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    I'm never going to be mistaken for a Corbyn fan, but this is wildly unfair, just setting up and beating up straw men. Nobody's ever claimed Corbyn has 'marvelous leadership skills', or that he could swing the Tories behind him: and the idea that Corbyn is failing to lead his party because he isn't trying is absurd. I have heard differently, which is that she was genuinely conflicted personally but basically - like Johnson - mostly interested in what would be good for her political career. And she still is. It's questionable, though, whether the Tories would have done this had Labour not introduced civil partnerships and equally whether Labour could have skipped that step and gone straight for marriage. I like to think they could, but I'm not certain. Er... no. No, he hasn't. Apart from winning leadership contests, what challenges has Corbyn defied? What has he achieved? His only notable achievement as leader is becoming and remaining leader. He's had many other challenges thrown down to him and not done very well at any of them.
  12. I'm summarising the actual findings of research into the election. ETA - I'm not dismissing what you're saying, by the way, but by the same token, Clinton being a poor choice of opponent for Trump does not mean Sanders was a better one. He wasn't.
  13. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    This is somewhat exaggerated. 'Traditional' working-class Labour voters aren't as far from the 'metropolitan elites' on these issues as is often said. The issue is that people seem unable to parse the idea that upper working-class voters aren't Labour voters, despite the fact that many of them have consistently voted Tory since 1979. As someone who was around for Kinnock and Foot, Corbyn has definitely not had a more hostile press than they had.
  14. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    For three reasons. First, existing support for the SNP may already have hit its peak: the 2015 result for the SNP was so good that it may simply not be possible for them to do better. Second, although the majority in Scotland voted Remain not all of those who did so are so committed to the EU that they'd rather leave the UK than the EU. Quite a few accept that the UK is going to leave the EU and would rather live in that situation than break up the UK. Third, a fair number of SNP supporters voted Leave. They want what they regard as a genuinely independent Scotland, one outside both the EU and UK. Most of those will likely still vote SNP but their enthusiasm may be tempered by linking the independence issue too closely to being anti-Brexit.
  15. UK Politics Unexpected Election edition

    No surprise. His bridges were all burned. Hope Banks stands in the constituency as promised, and loses his deposit.