davos

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About davos

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    can't stop the signal
  • Birthday 10/29/1975

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  1. US Politics: The Transition Continues

    Off the top of my head, there are land use issues, water issues, agricultural subsidies, and rural infrastructure/services. I'm not sure rather moving to a popular vote presidential ballot would greatly effect how much attention these get but it certainly wouldn't help them.
  2. Please continue the discussion of the Trumpacalypse in a new thread. Thank
  3. US Elections: The Last Trump

    There is a signican't difference, depending on how Trump plays it. if he loses, refuses to acknowledge the legitimacy of the election result, and creates a national platform to promulgate this idea, he could well become a significant threat to the stability of the nation.
  4. US Elections: The Last Trump

    Sadly I doubt Mr Trump is going away. Consider a scenario where he looses by less than a landslide ( which appears to be the most likely outcome at this point). He then declines to concede, claiming loudly that the election was rigged. While the lack of a concession by the loosing candidate means nothing from a legal standpoint, it could well turn him into a folk hero to a substantial minority of the country. To his most committed followers, probably a out 15% to 20% of the electorate, he would be the real president and the existing government illegitimate. if he combines this with the launch of his own network to give himself a continued national bulhorn, he could remain a major national problem for years to come.
  5. US Elections 2016: Why we can't have nice things

    Trump hoped to break the blue wall. It was thought that he could make inroads with blue collar whites in rust belt/midwest states. A lare part of this demographic has a history of voting Demcratic due to labour issues but is rather angry. It seemed possible that he might be in good position in OH, and make states like PA, MI, and WI competative. This does not appear to have materialized. Despite Trump being a radically different candidate in a most unsettled cycle, it's appearing more likely by the day that in the end the electoral map and party coalitions are going to remain remarkably similar to those from the prior 4 elections.
  6. I've only seen one Ohio poll conducted after the debate. Yes, it shows a 5 point lead for Trump but I'm waiting for that to be backed by other polls before I accept that the debate and it's aftermath are not going to improve Clinton's position there.
  7. US Elections - There is 'Ahead in the Polls' behind you

    While I agree that this is a very strong argument for not being complacent, I would also point out that the comparison doesn't hold up very well. The framers of the constitution were terrified of populism. The archaic and much lamented electoral college was one of the safe guards they put in place to limit such movements. While I hate this part of US democracy, in this case it makes the election extraordinary difficult for Trump. Not only does the electoral map at present favor a democratic candidate but the whole system rewards organization, a stron ground game, and strategic thinking. These are elements the Clinton campaign excels at while Trump's is singularily lacking in. Added to that, the US is a more diverse nation ethnically than the UK. Additionally, the Brexit referendum was a single issue vote, while the Presidential election is held in concert with a very large number of other elections. Very different dynamic. Basically, the US differs enough from the UK that while both the Brexit vote and Trump may pull from the same well of disatisfaction and racism, that the outcome is quite likely to be rather different.
  8. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    If the coup is well and truly over, I expect that Erdogan will use it as pretense to be done with what little democracy remains in Turkey. A failed coup played right into his hands.
  9. Attempted Coup in Turkey

    This was my first thought. A Civil War in Turkey would make the already fucked situation in Syria and Iraq significantly worse. The potential for this to spiral out of control is very real.
  10. Police killed at Dallas protest

    *mod hat* We've drifted way off topic here. While tangentially related, a discussion on gun control could continue on for pages with barely a mention of the events in Dallas. In light of the twin tragedies of the past few days, gun issues are certainly relevent. If you wish to focus on that topic, take it to another thread. Keep this thread for discussion of the Dallas shootings.*/mod hat*
  11. U.S. Elections: American Hitler 2016

    Basically, HRC did some dumb things. While the possibility exists that she may have made some incorrect statements under oath, it appears likely that this was an oversight rather than intentional deception ( or at least that defense is readily available and would be very hard to convincingly disprove). HRC Yes, what she did showed poor judgement. If this was any other SoS, though, the odds that this would have been more than a minor issue with a short life-span in the public eye are almost non-existent. It would have made news on and off for a bit, some hearings would have been held leading no-where except possibly to some revisions of the current rules so this situation wouldn't happen again. Since it was HRC, we have had to live through several years of controversy, hearings, and investigation. I do not like either HRC or Bill Clinton, but the long history of those who oppose them using public resources and treasure to try to destroy has long gotten very old.
  12. UK Politics: The Vote

    "Morbo congratulates our gargantuan cyborg president. May death come quickly to his enemies"
  13. Favorite music!

    *mod hat* wrong forum. Discussion of music belongs in the entertainment forum. Closing this thead */mod hat*
  14. US Election: Saint Bernard the obstinant

    I have a hard time using the events of FDR's administration to support the notion that the the current inequality crisis can be readily corrected. There are several elements that convince me that our current situation is not readily comparable to that in 1933. One, there were a lot more people out of work. It was a catastrophic situation. IIRC correctly, when FDR took office, the unemployment rate was somewhere around 25%. What we have now, is much less an unemployment crisis, than a case of endemic underemployment and depressed wages. While an increasing number of people are falling into an economically marginalized netherworld just above poverty but excluded from a shrinking middle class, it also doesn't create the sense of urgency that FDR was able to channel to create dramatic change. Two, we now don't have the counterbalance of a powerful communist nation to make the ruling elites feel genuinely threatened. The existence of the Soviet Union and the communist movements it inspired created in real threat of revolution in the early 1930's US. While, we now know that the USSR was a despotic nightmare, that wasn't common knowledge at the time in the US. The existence of an alternate system and the reality of a communist revolution in a major European country in recent memory, put pressure on the powers that be to make changes to prevent upheaval. There is ample reason to believe that if the 1932 election had not produced a bloodless revolution, that a bloody one would not have been far behind. The new deal happened because the elites didn't want to be facing angry mobs and firing squads. While alternatives to the US system still exist, they don't have the backing of a major nation and have been systematically repressed for many years. There is no leverage to pry concessions out of the elites. While change is achievable, its a much different and more difficult situation from that which FDR faced.