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About LionoftheWest

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    Bannerman of Casterly Rock

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  1. Thing is that Gregor is acting on Tywin's orders and Tywin isn't about to sell out one of his most potent tools to someone who will hate Tywin no matter what Tywin does or does not do. To start with giving Eddard Gregor will change nothing, Tywin will just have lost the Mountain and look like he fears Eddard and his bannermen will lose faith in that Tywin can come out ontop of this one. Furthermore Beric wasn't leading a Stormlander force but a force of the king's men on the Hand's orders. So it was more attacking the Hand, and possibly by extension the king, that Tywin did and not the Stormlands. Not really. To start with Renly didn't for all we know give a shit about Beric or those men. He never brings it up as a relevant point so a conflict with the Stormlands was on entirely different grounds. To that there are two things I think that you miss. For the first thing what Tywin can expect from the future and then the relation between the Lannisters and King Robert. In regards to what Tywin can see, everything points to that Eddard Stark is using his position as Hand of the KIng to move against the Lannisters at court with a goal to deny Tywin's grandson his father's throne. If there's contact between Casterly Rock and King's Landing then Tywin will know that there's been tensions and clashes between the Lannisters and Starks already on the road back to King's Landing. Tywin will then find that Tyrion is arrested by Catelyn Stark, on Eddard's orders as Eddard told Jaime, using Riverland soldiers to take Tyrion to her sister in the Vale. This all looks like Eddard is enacting a plan against the House of Lannister rather than coincidences and Tywin respons with violence to what is an attack on his House. In regards to killing Robert I'm not sure that a living Robert would have doomed the Lannisters. King Robert has at every time turned away from a conflict with the Lannisters. From Joffrey spat with Arya to Lannister guardsmen attacking Eddard on the streets of King's Landing, Robert looked the other way, and in the last issue went hunting instead. So much for the Stark-Baratheon alliance. Also you are very correct in that Tywin underestimated Robb, but then again, after Tywin's triumphan march through the Riverlands its really not that strange to think that a green boy will not be a major opponent. In a way yes. The problem is of course that like most separatists they are all to eager to gobble up other people's territory and hence brough the Riverlands, ruled by Robb's maternal relatives and in little over a decade the North's allies in three wars, with them to ensure that those guys wouldn't be left out to dry in the western wind. The march to King's Landing is actually rather predictable in that it was one of the main reason he was a Harrenhall to start with. That Robb made some strateic blunders is really not a fault of Tywin nor is the fact that Balon Greyjoy wanted to win himself and not serve as kingmaker to someone else. And the North is very much an easier target than the West, which no king sitting on the Iron Throne would be willing to surrender to the Ironmen. And there's little reason to think that Robb would fall on Tywin's army. Robb took most of his cavalry with him into the West and infantry are most often a bit to slow to fall on the enemy, in particular when Tywin has as much horse as he's got. There's just no reason to fear that entrenched infantry will catch up to a force march and fall on the moving troops. They didn't magically teleport anywhere but rather used some sense to move themselves. And the Tyrells have not been particular loyal to anyone. They changed swiftly enough to support Robert against the Greyjoys and they sought to place their own Baratheon on the throne rather than seat a new Targaryen king. So I doubt they cared much for Targaryen kids and its rather evident that they felt nothing particular ill will against Tywin. Not really. Tywin's victories comes from expert planning and excellent logistics and organization. Tywin isn't a flashy general nor a great tactician but he's definielty the greatest strategic mind in his time and when the battle is fought, he's already set himself up to win so there's no need for dramatic scenography and his hair trailing in the wind, so to speak. Robb Stark reacted like Tywin did when he heard his father was arrested for a crime he committed. Same with the Laughing Storm over a broken marriage promise. There are plenty of people who react just like Tywin.
  2. And I'm not saying they had a good relation either. I'm just pointing out the possibility that Rohanne might be not thrilled at Targaryens after the death of her husband and two sons. If you don't like speculation you are free to refrain from indulging in it. Given the reason for the Golden Company most exiles would have served with BIttersteel in the Second Sons or been in contact with him so that when the Golden Company was founded Bittersteel was able to draw them together again. Its interesting to see how Bittsteel managed to forge the exiles together into a force capable of fighting the Targaryens for several decades after the first war and how it would continue to live after his death. Bittersteels influence among the exiles would have kept them pullng in the same direction and more than likely most of them signed on as a group with the Second Sons before moving on to the Golden Company. That is not true at all. To start with while we have the line of succession between Daemon I and Daemon III we don't know what happens thereafter. For example Maelys fought a cousin of his for control over the Golden Company and most likley that Daemon was also the Blackfyre pretender before Maelys "relived him of command". So that's at the least one Blackfyre that uncounted for as the link between Daemon III and Maelys I. And there could be more for all we know. Not really. Murdering Aenys didn't turn any lords that we know against the Targaryens and Ramsay's torture of Theon didn't to my knowledge turn anyone against the Boltons. Westeros is not a place where most people take great offence at the suffferig of their enemies. In fact it would fit with the Targaryen operaton to both parade around Daemon II to humiliate him and send him for torture sessions in the Black Cells, Ramsay-style. I can definietly see Bloodraven being up for such. Bloodraven's authority isn't threatened by a king disinterested in ruling who will go along with whatever the Hand proposes with one sole exception that we know of. Its pretty clear that Bloodraven will easily accept the wishes of a king who has no wishes regarding the affairs of the realm. Bloodraven rules and whatever wish is what becomes policy. There's a reason as to why King Aerys sits in his castle and lets Bloodraven do all the work and fom the decisions. Exceptional circumstances at all times. Tywin wasn't about to be pushed arund and with the Hightowers and Aemond we don't have enough information to say what reasoning they had. Or maybe Rhaenyra wanted to make use of Alicent and Helaena if the fighting would go agaisnt her. The king didn't care for ruling and that means that there's essentially no king around. And what do you know about Tyrosh beig a threat that can destroy King's Landing? Anyway, there's no reason to think that a single Free City can destroy King's Landing due to the fact that the city is fortified and there's a royal navy to protect it. They don't need to hate Rohanne, only hate her relatives and be of a...pragmatic nature.
  3. Like how Bloodraven didn't kill Aenys Blackfyre when he granted that guy safe passage? And Catelyn was devoted to her husband and his family just like Olenna Tyrell is also devoted to her great family. Daemon had many children with Rohanne but there's no telling on their relations so that's just conjecture that they would have a bad relations. More likely is that she blamed the death of her two sons on the guys who were, you know, killing them. Thus she would especially hate Bloodraven and have no love for the men who kept Bloodraven in power and with. And just because she's a mother and and wife don't mean that she must hate her husband or use convoluted logic to shift blame for the benefit of House Targaryen. The reason that the Golden Company was founded was to stop the Blackfyre supporters dividing themselves among various sellsword companies. Thus its fairly certain that Bittersteel had most of the exiles with him at that point. Not to mention that I doubt that Bittersteel would sit on his ass and do nothing instead of risking a rebellion with unfavorable odds. There are many Blackfyre pretenders where we don't have a coronation date so this would be no different. Maybe Daemon II was the kind of craven to so easily throw away his honor but i doubt it. More likely he was subjugated to intense torture to be kept under control while passed off as a trophy for King Aerys. There's a different between being disillusioned and being and outmost coward who caves in at the slightens threat. More likely is the Hand of the King would have his "fun" with Daemon and make his life as miserable as possible. A guy like Bloodraven, being Hand of a disinterested king, would surely have managed to find a way to advance House Targaryen against House Blackfyre. Its rather telling that Bloodraven tells Dunk and Egg what will happen with Daemon II as if King Aerys was of no consequence, which he pretty much wasn't at this point. So much is mostly true in regards to what've we've seen so far. Yet even so no one has really dared to follow through and see if the other side dares it. In most cases they've either been unable or unwilling to things to the test. In the absence of a ruling king the Hand rules the realm. Thus Bloodraven's opinion is pretty much a statement of policy at this time in the Seven Kingdoms. A hostage Rohanne would prevent the Blackfyres from crossing the Narrow Sea and that's the main thing. Tyrosh alone can't hope to fight the Seven Kingdoms in an offensive war and if the Blackfyres can be kept from new rebellions then that means that the Blackfyre threat will surely melt away with time. I agree pretty much with this. Breakspear's death was the worst thing to happen to the realm between the rise of Maegor and the marriage between Cersei and Robert.
  4. The problem is that being pragmatic and being an asshole are not exclusive. Bloodraven being a pragmatic is actually very much a reason to seek to take Rohanne as a prisoner. It would be a massive boon to House Targaryen to keep a person like that as a hostage. So much is true, but I doubt that she would attend a marriage where she would need to play nice and keep company with the people who killed her husband and two children and drove herself and her family into exile. But then again maybe her only desire in life could be to serve House Targaryen and thus it would make perfect sense for her to attend that wedding. So much is true. Although I think that Bittersteel would still have tried an invasion while he still had strength in him to capitalize on the combination of the Great Spring Sickness and following drought. But more like it this invasion would have been like the fourth, probably at least. He probably wasn't, no. And yes, we don't know but given how the the Blackfyres and Bittersteel worked before and after we can see how he most likely worked then. There's no reason to think that Blackfyre ambitions were lessoned at any time before their final extinction. While Daemon II may have come to see the folly of his plan I find it unlikely that he would fall down on his knees and worship House Targaryen. Although after a few torture sessions in the Black Cells he would most likely be ready to say anything and admitt any crime before fading into obscurity, once the Targaryens had gotten what they wanted from him, before he died soon thereafter. I would think that when the Targaryens killed her sons and husband, Rohanne may have cared enough to hate the Targaryens. And the Blackfyres are by their kinship with Daemon I Blackfyre already considerred enemies of House Targaryen and like Aenys proved would be treated as such regardless of oaths, opinions or decenies. No way that Bloodraven would miss an oppertunity to harm the Black Dragons. Or more likely the Archon is a man of good nature and honor, outraged by Targaryen betryal but not dared to put the life of his daughter into play. Also I don't think that women makes for poor hostages but rather its about how hostages are used. Most hostages have in the main series not worked due to the extraordinary circumstances regarding their relation to their kin. And Sansa for example could have worked wonders, if Robb had been able to threaten Casterly Rock or King's Landing, then the Lannisters might well have been able to use her. Or look at Theon's fairly successful use of Rodrick's daughter at Winterfell to stop the impending assault. Its a shame that so far the issue of hostage has not been a decisive factor or we might have seen or much or little a hostage and the threats around it would truely be worth. Their father and husband was a traitor and thus they are traitor until they get a royal pardon. Bloodraven say that: "...but Daemon has four younger brothers, and sisters as well. Should I be so foolish as to remove his pretty head, his mother will mourn, his friends will curse me for a kinslayer and Bittersteel will crown his brother Haegon. Dead young Daemon is a hero. Alive he is an obstacle in my half brother's path. He can hardly make a third Blackfyre king whilst the second remains so inconviently alive...." It pretty clear that Bloodraven counts the Blackfyre family as a whole as enemies and pawns for Bittersteel .There's no "what if they refuse to work with Bittersteel?" but only assertions that they will do so and continue to fight for their claim. if you can find it anywhere that its suggested that anyone considered the option that the Blackfyres would surrender their claim on their own then I'd love to hear it.
  5. Well, that was only one of several given scenarios when Rohanne could have visited King's Landing. The others included the presence of Bloodraven at court and presumably as Hand. Thus I commented more to Rohanne visiting during Aerys I's reign than Aegon V, although I'm not sure why she would visit the family responsible for killing of her sons and grandsons. In regards to her family we don't know yet but I suppose that either the Archon of Tyrosh decided that he'd been betting on the wrong horse with the Blackfyres or he decided to play both sides and see who came out ontop in the end. To start we have a hint that after Daemon's capture Bittersteel and Haegon moved into the front. So Daemon II either died fairly quick or was deposed and his brother crowned instead. And I'm not sure how much King's Landing would care for provoking Tyrosh given how the Archaon was already sheltering rebels and traitors in his city. More likely a hostage who is the mother of Haegon and the daughter of the Archon would be more of more worth than Tyroshi sensibilites. In short, with Rohanne as hostage, I'm not convinced the Archon would dare to give the Blackfyre a fleet of fifty ships.
  6. She would be very brave and very foolish to walk into the dragon's den and allow the Targaryens to take her as a hostage against her sons. Not a chance she would leave the Red Keep if she ever entered.
  7. Probably Euron's son because there's now a little and slim chance that I might make it out alive. Not a chance for that with the other two.
  8. We shouldn't also forget that if Aegon was in Dorne, someone might have grown wise and told Robert. Someone told Doran about Arianne's plans and someone seeking royal favor could absolutely have sent word to Robert about Targaryens in Dorne.
  9. I don't think they would have been better or worse than the Targaryens or Baratheons. Some Blackfyre kings would be fools, some wicked and some good. The longer time period we speak about the more things would likely have evened themselves out. Hell, in a hundred years after Daemon I Blackfyre became king there would probably be no difference at all for 99,99% of the population compared to if they had been ruled by Targaryen kings.
  10. I just hope that Littlefinger and Varys finally bites it.
  11. I certainly have no problem with seeing the Crownlanders being pretty pro-Targ with their historical closeness and favor by the Targs as well as the Sack and the Tyrell blockade that are both blamed on the Lannisters, in one case justified and in one case not so justified. The problem is of course that the Crownlanders are not the realm but a small part of it, and most of the realm has not shown any special loyalty to House Targaryen in the past. In fact I'd say they've been pretty ready to go against the Targaryens and in the end it will be the majority of Houses outside the Crownlands who decide who will win the Iron Throne, not by the Crownlanders alone. Now of course the Targaryens are seen as more favorable at present than the Baratheons due to nostalgic sentimentality for "the good old days" which just so happens to ignore all the unpleasent parts of the Targaryen reign.
  12. Some lords won't care at all if Aegon is fake or not, and some lords will probably look to jump ship if Aegon turns out to be fake. Most lords who have joined with Aegon will probably see it so that as long as Aegon is moving forward and upward and there' no one else on Team Targaryen to support, they'll keep faith with him. But at first real Targaryen landing on the shores or major setback for the imposter, they'll probably jump ship to save themselves. No reason or glory in making a last stand with an imposter. While those who are opposed to Aegon will probably cement their hostility to him.
  13. Lann the Clever to for me.
  14. Yeah, something like those. There are some scattered references to men in Joffrey's livery so I agree that there's lack of info. Perhaps something which someone could ask GRRM about at some point?
  15. 1. Arrest Littlefinger and going there myself, or send someone like Ser Vardis, and then execute him at once in the king's name for his crimes. Or send him to the Black Cells and tell the guards that I don't want to him survive more than a few days at most. Then invite Stannis to come with all haste to the capital. 2. I won't. When they kneel they will be pardoned and life will go one after a harsh chastament of House Lannister. But odds are that the Tyrells and Lannisters will still make an alliance against Stannis and there will be a major war once more in Westeros, which its unclear if Stannis will win or if he'll push enough lords to jump sides so that Tywin will turn things around. Remember the Stannis of this time will not be very nice to his lords and will alienate a fair few of them. 3. See point 1.