Free Northman Reborn

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  1. Interesting response. A few noteworthy aspects thereof: Despite your original contention that heavy horse should grow scarcer the farther North a lord is located, you claim that the Umbers likely contributed more heavy horse than the Boltons. With no evidence to back it up. This while the Umbers are the northernmost of all the mainland Stark bannermen. Despite the Boltons being noted as the Starks' chief rivals in the North, you believe that they would have contributed heavy horse in similar numbers to relatively minor Houses in the North, such as the Hornwoods, Cerwyns, Glovers and Tallharts. Despite the entire battle at Wintertown being described as Ramsay's forces charging on horseback at Rodrik's dismounted forces, you choose to interpret it as the Boltons having minimal mounted lancers in that host. I could go on, but it seems clear that you have a specific agenda, which is to minimize the potential Bolton cavalry numbers at all costs, in order to reduce the implications of Manderly's assessment of his own heavy cavalry strength, which in turn is aimed at reducing the potential strength of the North. Let's just agree to disagree then, so we both stop wasting our time.
  2. Sorry, but he couldn't. Who are the most powerful Houses in the North? Both historically and currently? The Boltons, Manderlys and Dustins top that list. Consider the 3000 armoured lances at Winterfell. Who do you imagine contributed that heavy horse? The Karstarks brought only 300, so that leaves 2700 from the remaining Houses. Do you imagine the Mormonts own very many heavy horse? And brought them over on fishing sloops? How about the Mountain Clans, who don't own ANY heavy horse? That leaves the remaining Houses gathered at Winterfell to have contributed on average around 30% of their numbers as armoured lances. Of all the Houses gathered there, the Starks and Boltons are the most likely to have powerful militaries, and therefore able to contribute significant heavy horse. Even if they were just average, they would need a 25% heavy horse ratio, to fit in with the Winterfell numbers. But since some Houses had to exceed the average, to make up for those who brought less, well, the Boltons and Starks are by far the most likely to have done so, of the Houses gathered there. To try and pretend otherwise is simply obtuse.
  3. How about the educated Maester Luwin is right and you are wrong. Difficult to believe?
  4. Robb left only 10% of his cavalry with Roose Bolton. This included Manderly knights who were smashed by Gregor Clegane when caught on the wrong side of the river, and likely further heavy horse personal guards for each of the lords in that army, including lords Glover, Tallhart, Hornwood, Cerwyn, Harrion Karstark etc. So of the 600 original cavalry with Roose at the Green Fork, probably close to 200 were from an assortment of other Houses. Yet, there is every reason to conclude that Roose contributed a significant portion of the 3000 armoured lances at Winterfell. At least 25% of the total Bolton force had to be armoured lances, and likely more, considering that the Karstarks did not meet the 25% average ratio (3000/12000), and the Mormonts and Mountain Clans are highly unlikely to have contributed 25% heavy horse either. That means the remaining Houses had to contribute in excess of a 25% ratio. So the logical conclusion is that a significant number of the Bolton cavalry went with Robb to the West, and only rejoined Roose at the Twins. Meaning they need to be added to the 3500 he brought back from Harrenhal. So if we have say 400 Bolton cavalry in the 3500, then we still need to add whatever returning Bolton cavalry came with Robb, to get to the total remaining Bolton cavalry that returned from the South. A number likely around 600. To which we need to add Ramsay's force, which was described in battle as charging, wheeling and charging repeatedly at Rodrik's forces at Wintertown. Roose very easily could have a thousand Bolton armoured lances left. And Manderly has more.
  5. That SSM touches on the time it would take to raise the men, as well as the willingness of the lords to release them. It does not address the logistical cost of marching and supporting men over thousands of miles, which would inevitably cost more per man in the North than in the smaller, more densely populated South. Hence, even if the North was as fertile as the South, it would take the labour output of more peasants to support one soldier, simply because the soldier has to be supported for a longer period, over longer distances. Couple this with the lower producticity of a square mile of Northern farmland, and the ratio of peasants per soldier supported in the field would need to be even higher. Martin was asked about military strength, not population. For the same military strength to be achieved, a larger support base of peasants would be needed in the North than in the Vale.
  6. The North can raise the same military strength as the Vale, according to Martin. But, considering the size, climate and lack of wealth of the North, they would logically be able to raise a smaller percentage of their total population to war. Thus, similar miltary strength x smaller mobilization percentage should equal larger total population.
  7. The North is more populous than the Stormlands, Dorne and the Vale, while likely matching the Riverlands and West in population.
  8. Ramsay had up to 600 cavalry at Winterfell. Lady Dustin held more of her strength back than Roose did, in fact she held back as much as possible, and Barrowton is the 2nd wealthiest settlement in the North. She should easily have 500 cavalry left, if not significantly more. The Ryswells are the premier hoesebreeders in the North, and sent neither their lord nor any of his sons with Robb. They likely have close to the Dustin numbers of cavalry left. So those 3 Houses alone could have 1500 cavalry in addition to the numbers in Robb's army. And that excludes the Manderlys, who must have in excess of 1000 left, if they exceed Roose's current total cavalry numbers. That takes us to 2500 already, without any other lords contributing, and this with the Manderlys at a rock bottom minimum of 1000, which could be much higher.
  9. Regarding the Freys my view is that the 400 Frey knights with Roose are veterans from Robb's army, along with some of the infantry. But the infantry mentioned as carrying pitchforks and sharpened sticks or the like are likely newly raised peasant cannon fodder. So maybe 500 new raw peasants to add to the original 4000 Freys in Robb's army. Giving the Freys a total potential strength in the region of 4500, less whatever losses they have incurred to date.
  10. And yet the North produces 3000 amoured lances out of 12000 men at Winterfell. Men no less capable than a southron knight, according to Maester Luwin. Lord Sunderland cannot afford to equip his 7 sons as knights, yet Lord Karstark commands 300 of the 3000 armoured lances at Winterfell. Maybe much of the cost of southron knighthood therefore involves needless extravagance, rather than value adding military equipment. The North raised around 5000 cavalry in Robb's army, with several thousand additional heavy cavalry remaining behind with Houses Manderly, Bolton, Dustin and Ryswell. This puts their armoured lance numbers pretty much up there with any region other than the Reach or West, and likely well above the likes of Dorne and the Stormlands. As for horses, we see that when the Karstarks leave Robb, he says he has lost 300 mounted men and twice as many horses, telling us that the guestimate of at least two horses on campaign per armoured lancer is pretty much spot on. So we are talking tens of thousands of warhorses being available in the North. They seem able to match the capability, if not the extravagance, of the southron kingdoms pretty well.
  11. Are you talking about the 3500 men Roose brought to the Twins for the wedding? If so, this is wrong. There are nowhere near 700 Karstarks in that host. In fact, it is difficult to justify anything other than very minimal Karstark numbers among the 3500. I have no idea where your 700 figure comes from. Rickard Karstark brought 2300 men South. Of that the 300 cavalry went with Robb, leaving around 2000 infantry in Roose's host. This is proven by Robb's quote when he learns that the Karstarks have abandoned him to hunt for the Lannisters: "Near three hundred riders and twice as many mounts, melted away in the night." Robb rubbed his temples, where the crown had left its mark in the soft skin above his ears. "All the mounted strength of Karhold, lost." Note that this is after the Battles of the Whispering Wood, the Camps, Oxcross and the raiding of the Westerlands. So the "near" 300 is understandable, given that some of the original number would have been lost during the campaign to date. So, that leaves 2000 Karstarks in Roose's Green Fork host. Now, the losses at the Green Fork were fairly heavy. And since Harrion Karstark was captured there, it makes sense that his men would have been in the thick of battle around him, to protect their lord's heir. So I would imagine significant Karstark losses at the Green Fork. Then, when Roose meets Jaime at Harrenhal, he tells him this: Bolton gave a soft chuckle. "Harrion Karstark was captive here when we took the castle, did you know? I gave him all the Karhold men still with me and sent him off with Glover. I do hope nothing ill befell him at Duskendale . . . else Alys Karstark would be all that remains of Lord Rickard's progeny." So at this point, Roose has zero Karstark men left with him.All of their infantry went with Harrion to Duskendale. From Varys we learn that Duskendale was a bloodbath. The eunuch smiled a silken smile. "I have such delicious tidings for you all, my lords. Yesterday at dawn our brave Lord Randyll caught Robett Glover outside Duskendale and trapped him against the sea. Losses were heavy on both sides, but in the end our loyal men prevailed. Ser Helman Tallhart is reported dead, with a thousand others. Robett Glover leads the survivors back toward Harrenhal in bloody disarray, little dreaming he will find valiant Ser Gregor and his stalwarts athwart his path." Harrion is captured again at this battle, and we know his men would therefore have been in the thick of the fighting. And even those who tried to retreat, were cut off by Gregor Clegane. So very few if any of them made it back to Harrenhal. And then Roose says to Jaime: But to sell you he must keep you, and the riverlands are full of those who would gladly steal you away. Glover and Tallhart were broken at Duskendale, but remnants of their host are still abroad, with the Mountain slaughtering the stragglers. A thousand Karstarks prowl the lands south and east of Riverrun, hunting you. So, those Karstarks who survived, were out prowling the Riverlands for Jaime. Clearly Roose has only the barest minimum of Karstarks with him. Where you get 700 from, as I say, I have no idea.
  12. The latest dip has apparently come to an end. But the results are still coming in. And with this star, little dips have been found inbetween big dips, so who knows if there is more to come in the days ahead.
  13. Basically they don't know what it is. The data doen't fit an alien megastructure scenario any better than the other theories. Yet. It is perplexing. Personally, I like the star lifting hypothesis. But that is probably the most extreme and unlikeky of the lot.
  14. So, many of you will recall the alien megastructure star with its weird dips, identified by Kepler a year or more ago. Well, since it was discovered it has been under constant observation by multiple telescopes around the world, waiting for another dip. Thus far to no avail. Until now. It is now dimming again. So far it is down by 3%. For reference, a Jupiter sized planet would result in a dip in intensity of about 1%. So we are at the edge of discovering some major new information about this fascinating, so far inexplicable star.
  15. Teachable moment? Firstly, are you talking in the guise of moderator or in the guise of giving your personal opinion here? If the former, well then I guess I have nothing to say. If the latter, don't make me laugh. What parralel SJW universe do I find myself in here? Scott's lack of knowledge on the subject is one thing, and he can rightly be proven wrong as a result. Asking people not to use a condescending tone in case it hurts someone's feelings? What is this? Kindergarten?