Free Northman Reborn

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About Free Northman Reborn

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  1. Plot developments / expectations for The Winds of Winter

    That is the heart of my argument about the nature of the coming War. I have seen people talk about how the collapse of the Wall is going to destroy all the castles of the Night's Watch, and perhaps even flood the entire Gift. Like the collapsing Walls of Jericho. I don't see it that way. I think when the Horn is blown, it will break the barrier spell inside the Wall. And it will probably create a breach. It isn't going to collapse the ENTIRE Wall. And at that moment, the Others will be able to raise wights in Oldtown. Or at least, they will be able to send their cold mist pouring into Westeros, to materialize anywhere in the South as soon as a mist can blow to that destination. So give it two weeks, maybe. Depending on how fast the cold wind can blow. Anyway, we aren't going to see a battlefront that gradually retreats from the Wall, to the Last Hearth, to the Dreadfort, to Winterfell etc, as humanity falls back in one big wave. Nope. We are going to see corpse armies rise in King's Landing, in Highgarden, Lannisport and in Oldtown. Simultaneously. So humanity will become a thousand flickers of light, holed up in their various castles from the Wall down to Sunspear, fighting the enveloping darkness and the armies of the dead. Everywhere. The need will be evident across Westeros. And that is what will eventualy unite the Realm under the Prince who Was promised, against the existential threat to all of humanity.
  2. Winter warfare in TWoW (and later on)

    Werthead did a great assessment recently, to map Westeros. He concluded that Winterfell lies more or less on York's latittude. In Northern England. Anyway, that as an aside. More importantly, most reasonable assessments estimate the population of Westeros at around 40 million. And the army percentages at around 1% of the population, on average. (The argument can well be made that the North is unlikey to match the mobilization percentage of the South, for obvious reasons, but let that stand for the time being.) We also know that the Iron Isles and Dorne have lower populations than the North. We further know that in Martin's rough endorsement of the army numbers that the rest of Westeros believes each kingdom to have, the Stormlands were at a lower estimate (30k) than the North (45k). The WOIAF ties in with this in describing the Stormlands as sparsely populated (but obviously more populated than Dorne, based on Doran's specific statement in that regard). So now you already have Dorne, the Iron Isles and the Stormlands with a lower population than the North. And then you have Martin's statement that the Vale and the North can raise roughly equal sized armies. The point of all of the above is not to guestimate the North's army size. That has been done many times. The point is to make it clear that with Westeros having around 40 million people, and with at least 3 kingdoms having fewer people than the North, the North must at least be of average population size among the Seven Kingdoms. And this is important, because it then means the North cannot have a population that only numbers in the hundreds of thousands, for example. It has to have millions of people. (Of course, around 3-4 million has been the conservative estimate by the likes of Elio, but I am on record as believing that to be too low). In any case, the bottomline is that even if you go only with 3 million people, that means 1.5 million men. And if say one third of the population is between 15 and 50, that means around 500,000 men of sword wielding age. And even if only half of them are able bodied, that still leaves 250,000. What does this mean? it means that the idea that "There are no such Northmen in this winter. They all died in the Riverlands, the West, and the Crownland, and those who are still alive are likely to die at the village or at Winterfell" is an unrealistic statement. Maybe 20,000 men have died in the Wars to date. There are at least 10 times that number of able bodied men left. And come Winter, they are going to have no need to harvest, or do anything other than consume food. If there was ever a Winter where any surplus men would march off to War, to save their families the extra mouth to feed, this one will be it. So in short, there is PLENTY of manpower about to be unleashed in the North, should the plot require it.
  3. POTUS Trump and the World

    Consider a lot of his talk negotiating tactics. He wants other NATO countries to pay their fair share of the costs. Up their military spending, in other words. By threatening to pull out completely, he will get them to the negotiating table, and get the deal he wants.
  4. Why did the Others awaken NOW?

    Look, I'm speculating here. No one really knows the answer to the question posed by this thread. One bit I do feel particularly strongly about, is that I don't think the Others were always at a constant level of strength. I think they were defeated and confined in the Land of Always Winter. Something boosted their strength, or allowed them to awaken from some spell of imprisonment, or some Pact was broken that kept them in check, or perhaps a certain period of time was needed to gradually rebuild their magic. I certainly don't think that they've been idling the time away up in the Far North until they just randomly decided now is as good a time as any to head South. Something in the underlying conditions changed. I don't think it is the dwindling numbers of the Watch, as I don't think the Watch is what stood in their way for all these years. It was the magic of the Wall that held them back. Not the men manning the Wall. It was also not the rebirth of Dany's dragons that did it, as there were far more Dragons for 5000 years in Valyria - and for about 2 centuries after Aegon's conquest - than there are now. Something changed. And it changed in the last generation or so, presuming that the Long Summer of 10 years was as a result of the forces of Ice marshalling all their strength in the Far North, thus temporarily diverting its power from interrupting a long Summer.
  5. Why did the Others awaken NOW?

    I suggest Jon's birth triggered their first awakening. The Prince who was Promised. Perhaps promised to end the lopsided seasons? His is the Song of Ice and Fire. The fulfillment of the Pact of Ice and Fire. Someone from the Show's cast mentioned that Jon's parentage was a bit of a Darth Vader situation. Well, Anakin Skywalker was the one who was supposed to bring balance to the Force. (Between Ice and Fire, in this case). But in the end, he proved to be merely the father of the one who was the true prophecied one. In the same way, Rhaegar initially thought that he was the Prince who Was Promised. Many thought so due to his birth after the tragedy at Summerhal. But in the end he realized that his son would be that person. So Jon's birth awakened the Others, as the Last Battle between Ice and Fire is needed in order to bring balance back to the climate.
  6. US Politics: There's No Morning After Pill

    Suits me. Tired of answering your daft questions in any case.
  7. US Politics: There's No Morning After Pill

    Your argument is on questionable terrain, as you are now very close to suggesting that countries with radically different value systems don't exist. Surely you can grasp that if you united Saudi Arabia and Austria into one, democratic country, that voters are going to have vast differences in selecting the way of life that should govern them. The same if you united Saudi Arabia and China. The fact that these countries have massive internal issues does not detract from the fact that even a democratic Saudi Arabia would in no way resemble a democratic Austria.
  8. US Politics: There's No Morning After Pill

    Talking about HIllary, this was quite amusing. Ol' Bill apparently perving a bit over Ivanka/Melania at the inauguration, and getting caught out by Hillary.
  9. US Politics: There's No Morning After Pill

    But of course they do exist. The reigning value system in Saudi Arabia is very different from that in Austria, which is different from that in China. Imagine those three countries chucked into a blender, having to decide who rules them by democratic vote. Same with Pakistan and India. Your perspective is simply not long term enough. Your hope is that conservative America just eventually dies out, with their views on God, Guns and social conservatism. But if they don't then eventually their ideology will differ so radically from that of the average protester in these mass marches today, that they might as well be from different countries. So they are in fact united by accident of geography, not by anything more sacred than that. So a hundred years from now, who is to say that they would not prefer to live in different countries. Many Californians already threatened to secede after Trump's victory. Imagine if it was somehow achieved. The next question would then be, well, what about conservative Californians who prefer the values of Red States? If they had the means to move there, would they not be tempted to do so? And 20 years later, the voluntary migration would have changed the landscape in both the origin and destination states. Anyway, this is broader thinking than just the issues of the day. I merely indicated that the divisions of the day represent a zero sum game, with winners and losers and no middle ground. And in a scenario like that, eventually, one has to consider alternatives.
  10. US Politics: There's No Morning After Pill

    If we take a broader, longer term view, then the time will come when people prefer living under a value system that they feel affinity to over living in a particular geographic area. So the end result will be moving to areas where your ideology is in the majority. A kind of natural "purging" of differences, out of personal choice. The alternative is for minorities to become irrelevant the moment a slight majority can push their values into oblivion, leading to social discord, civil unrest and eventually violence. We see it all over the world.
  11. US Politics: There's No Morning After Pill

    I'm afraid humanity has a real problem. It always strikes me how people can be so passionate about radically opposing ideologies. And this in the same country. This divide cannot be healed, in my view, and the conflict is indeed a zero sum game, sadly, if these groups have to fight it out in one political entity. Each group is effectively determined to own the future, and appears convinced that it can only do so by overpowering the opposing group, and eventually pushing it and the interests it represents into the realm of irrelevence. It troubles me. The future of the world will not be pretty. That is why I favour seperatism, and the need for unitary states to continue to sub-divide into smaller entities that can better represent a more uniform value system that is important to its citizens.
  12. Northern Lords

    I have to disagree on the Greatjon's plan to attack the Twins. The Umbers have been mentioned by some of their enemies as having a certain "low cunning". I believe Tywin or Cersei also uses that term to describe Tyrion. I take this to be a disparaging term for someone who you believe to be unsophisticated, and yet somehow manages to instinctively act with greater insight than you would have expected. Simply put, the Umbers are quite astute at sensing threats as an animal would sense a threat in the wild, if you will. Maybe their harsh environment leads to a cynical approach, to always expect the worst from strangers, or to assume the worst outcome and act instinctively to eradicate the threat. As it turns out, the Greatjon's much disparaged plan to attack the Twins immediately after Robb's marriage to Jeyne was instinctively probably the most accurate assessment of the state of affairs. He might not be skilled at subtle court politics, but he evidently understands base psychology and primitive human motivations quite well. Without articulating his reasoning, he probably thought how he would react to someone breaking a vow to him, and projected that potential rage onto the overly proud and prestige craving Walder Frey. And his assessment was instinctively that they should hit him hard, with all their strength and eradicate the threat before it could grow any stronger. If that had happened, ironically, Robb would not have been worse off than after the Red Wedding, and quite possibly would have been much, much better off. The war for the Riverlands would have been lost - it was frankly already lost at that point - but the Twins would have been broken, the Red Wedding unwittingly avoided, and Robb would have had perhaps 10,000 men to return North with, to regain his homeland. Not a victory over the Lannisters, but still, a return North and restoration of his homeland, with most of his loyal lords and veteran troops still available to him. Now, I'm not saying the Greatjon envisaged all of this like a master strategist. But I am saying his instinct was correct, and would have led to the best possible outcome for Robb, and the North, in hindsight. So a certain "low cunning" indeed. Something I expect more of, once the Greatjon is freed and returns to the North in Winds.
  13. Scientific progress in Westeros

    Cross referencing with Valyrian, Ghiscari and other ancient records from the East makes it pretty clear that the Long Night was at least 6000 years ago. So the arrival of the First Men had to predate that by many centuries. So a date of say 8000 years is probably the most recent realistic date for the arrival of the First Men in Westeros. As for the Andals. Their arrival in the Vale can reliably be placed between 2500 and 3500 years ago, from many different sources. So the Andal timeline is likely to be about half as long as originally thought. But the First Man presence in Westeros cannot be significantly shortened.
  14. The Southern Ambition wasn't created by the North.

    Regarding the bolded part. Consider your own argument, which supports my point. Hoster was indeed in the stronger position. Because he had not declared against the Targaryens yet, and was sitting on the fence. Just like Walder Frey was in the stronger position to require Robb to marry his daughter. That in itself tells you that if Hoster had the thousands of swords that the rebels needed, and did not have to commit them to the war, then what did the North have in exchange for that? It must be something pretty valuable, for Hoster to insist on it. And indeed, it was. It was a Stark marriage for his oldest and most beautiful daughter. Clearly then, he valued a Stark marriage highly enough to insist on it as the price for his swords in a war against the Iron Throne itself. Not something to undertake lightly, or without great reward, if you don't have a dog in the fight. Also note that the Riverlords weren't forced to accept Robb as King. Robb would not have abandoned his mother's people if they instead insisted on being an independent kingdom, supporting the North as allies. Yet the Riverlords took up the cry "King in the North" as loudly as the Greatjon did, in that scene. You don't do that unless you consider the House in question as worthy of being your king.
  15. COFT and the song of ice and fire

    I assumed an understanding that I'm not refering to the physical or scientific presence of fire and ice in the world, which of course goes back billions of years, but to the arrival or awakening of the spiritual or magical powers of Ice and Fire. Meaning dragons and fire magic, which predates the Valyrians, but which does not predate human beings. Just like the Others and their Ice magic don't predate human beings.