OldGimletEye

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Everything posted by OldGimletEye

  1. I think life down there has always been hard and poverty common, ever since the first mostly Scots Irish or Scots moved there, not trusting the elites on the coast or the lowlands. And over several centuries, certain kinds of expectations form, like say having a coal mining job is the best you can do. One might ask, why don't the people just move. And many did or have. My own family is from down there, arriving before the Revolutionary War, until my grand father decided he wanted no part of coal mining, like many others. But, often, there was a bit of cultural alienation, as many hillbillys were seen as ignorant, backward, and stupid. Where I was raised at, their is a special name for it. We're called "briars". Here is a definition of a "briar": https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Briar Now back in the day, shortly after World War 2, there was quite a bit of discrimination against briars. It isn't so bad now, as there was lots of us briars where I grew up, to the point we even joke about being briars. But, I think for many of those people in Appalachia there is a bit of cultural anxiety of moving to other places. Being a briar myself it's upsetting to see so many people from Appalachia become Trump supporters. Neither Trump and nor the country club Republican Party crowd gives a flyin' fuck about any of those people. Never will, never have. And they are certainly feeding them a bunch of bullshit about coal jobs, which are going to get smaller and smaller, and no amount of reversing EPA regulations is going to stop that. Of course, and I hate to say it, but it's true, that racism and cultural grievance plays a big part. And it just goes to show that those sort of things are deadly for many people down there and in other places where they might live. I just hope one day, they wake up and realize they've been had.
  2. Except Trump relied heavily on his alleged “business experience” to make the case he should be president. And the “business man” as president is some kind of crap that Republicans keep falling for over, and over, and over again. And on economic matters I’ve repeatedly pointed out that businessman often aren’t that good and say or do dumb shit. And if he is just a business guy, that is no excuse to be so ignorant of policy matters. In fact his whole shtick was he’d be better than your usual politician because of his so called “business experience”. Because of his business experience he was going to drain the swamp. Remember? And the fact is that he wasn’t that good of business man. He basically was a guy that sat on his ass and collected licensing fees while people used his name to hawk bad Vodka, steaks or whatever. And according to one of his accountants, it wasn’t Trump that asked penetrating questions about taxes and his business but actually it was Ivana Trump.
  3. Yup. It became quite clear before Trump got elected he never had much of a policy agenda of his own, in my opinion, and that he would largely rely on the GOP policy making establishment, while being a twittering racist and ignorant buffoon.
  4. A few follow on thoughts. 1. Yes getting hit in your 40s or 50s is really devastating. 2. When we talk about Social Security in the future, I think it’s important to keep in mind the folks that caught in that situation who were financially devastated, though no fault of their own and were not able to recover (well nobody exactly recovers. Fact is that young people that came on the job market are likely to have lower lifetime earnings than someone that was lucky to come on it when times were good. But, it’s of course much more devastating for somebody like the people we are talking about). 3. I believe age discrimination is a real problem that doesn’t get talked about enough. And if you’re female and older, you really get whacked good. 4. The standard economist model says that people work until the ratio of their marginal disutility of working and marginal utility of consumption equals the real wage. But, in reality, I think that it is flawed ( or maybe it can be very misleading), as the work itself often brings utility in econ speak. More exactly it is mentally and emotionally damaging when unemployment hits. As FDR historian Wiliam Leuchtenburg put it, To be unemployed in an industrial society is the equivalent of banishment and excommunication.A job established a man's identity—not only what other men thought of him but how he viewed himself; the loss of his job shattered his self-esteem.”
  5. 1984 was supposed to be a warning. Not a "how to" guide.
  6. I don’t have the precise numbers in front of me. I’ll see if I can find something to quantify the problem and post it later. But, for now I have a few comments. We know two things. One is if you were unemployed for over six months, you faced significant headwinds getting back in the labor market. Employers simply discriminated against people unemployed for that period of time, even if they had good experience. Secondly, age discrimination is significant. If you happened to be over 40 and lost your job during the Great Recession, you likely faced severe headwinds because of your age and because there was a good chance you’d hit the critical six month mark. I’m quite sure that many people caught in that situation just gave up and dropped out of the labor market. This is of course why the U3 unemployment statistic isn’t the only one to look at. And if course if you were one of those people, and faced a long bout of unemployment, and are just getting back into the labor market, then there is probably a good chance you’ll never be able to retire, as you probably burned through most of your financial resources and now your in your 50s or 60s and maybe have few years left you can work. People of course can complain about some of these people not retiring, but many of them don’t have a choice. It’s either work until they drop dead or eat cat food. And even though, labor markets are tightening and marginalized people are getting a chance to get back into the labor force, this is one reason why I’m still on the war path about this issue. It did not have to be this painful and protracted. Unfortunately, people like me who know this wasn’t mainly a “structural” problem, for the most part, had to deal with people like Casey Mulligan who made up structural fairy tales, along with the CEO Business Clowntable crowd who pushed this narrative. And then we had to deal with inflation fear mongering, gold bugism, Poor Savers!, and asset mispricing concern trolling.
  7. Yes, Trump is the Pied Piper and the Republican Party, like a bunch of mindless lemmings, is following him off a cliff. When this ends, there will be no escape for the Republican Party. There will be no out. They will not be able to deny Trump three times. They went all in. http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/defend-trump-republican-target-dick-durbin
  8. Ozimek is hardly wild eyed left winger. He's in fact center right. But he is right here.It's time for the CEO Business Clowntable crowd, and Jamie Dimon, to admit they were wrong, along with other certain sorts of people. Always read the WSJ with extreme caution. Since 2008, Mulligan has been a real, real, conservative clown. And wrong just about everything. Mulligan's "conservative errors" was based on the fact he was working in an RBC model of the economy. Had that model been correct, you'd would have seen inflation and wage pressures, but that's not what happened. Since Mulligan had no plausible answers, he just grasped for straws and blamed the ACA. Sorry ass conservatives are going to sorry ass. There is a reason I'm disequlibrium Keynesian. I know damn well prices don't clear markets (not quickly at least), unlike say, people like, Casey Mulligan.
  9. Whatever one thinks about the whole issue of immigration, really DACA should be done deal by now. It's terrible that it hasn't been resolved by now. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/14/16890728/trump-daca-dead Not even Bannon can withstand the power of our "libertarian" overlords. http://ritholtz.com/2018/01/breitbart-communications-arm-mercer-empire/ FED Watch: http://www.epi.org/blog/the-search-for-the-next-president-of-the-new-york-federal-reserve-is-a-big-deal/
  10. And what was that your party did again about unemployment over the last 10 years Seema? What again was it saying? Remind us all again. Let's take a walk down memory lane, and reminiscence about the clownery. Sounds like somebody payed Verma a whole bunch of money to spew bullshit, if I may say so in an uncivil manner.
  11. Yes, Poor Savers! and Inflationista fear mongering will not die! http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/taxing-money-the-goodfriend-approach-to-monetary-policy When we talk about Poor Savers! what we mean here is that there isn't enough cheap risk free assets to go around. There was a way to fix that. Issue more of them. Anyway, start with: I = S Now conservative sorts of people, that means investment equals savings. But conservative sorts of people, it's just an accounting identity, it's not an equilibrium condition. Supposing you have I(y,r) = S and dI/dy>0 and dI/dr<0, then that means investment depends on both spending and the interest rate. And then you jack up the interest rate and what do you get? Lower investment, and hence lower aggregate savings. But, please by all means, continue to talk about Poor Savers! conservative sorts of people. Sure the situation will be great for rich people that will get high real yields on their bonds, but will suck for everyone else that ends up in the unemployment line. And as Baker notes, it's not like we have been overshooting the 2% inflation target. And if you set an inflation target, it's just important that you don't keep undershooting it as it is to keep overshooting it. One wonders where does this conservative clownery come from?
  12. Nah, Burke was too liberal. Not conservative enough. LOL.
  13. Probably people who shout at each other about who is the most conservative.
  14. Trump might wake up one day to find a wall on the Mexico/ US border, except it won’t be the US that it built it, it will be Mexico that built it, to keep Americans from fleeing into Mexico. Trump may ask, “why are Americans fleeing?” Cause Mr. Orange Swamp thing, you and the Republican Party turned the US into a real shithole.
  15. Hey, it worked for Reagan. Except in his case, it's possible he couldn't.
  16. Memo To The: 1. Watch it inflation is around the corner! 2. Poor Savers! 3. Watch that asset mispricing! Crowd. Once again, full employment and tight labor markets helps those who are struggling, while producing more for everyone. And notice that this is all happening before tax cuts could plausibly haven taken effect (but only counting it's demand side effects not it's supply side effects). https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/01/13/business/economy/labor-market-inmates.html
  17. Trump administration official does the full on Sgt. Schultz. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/14/16890490/kirstjen-nielsen-shithole Somebody needs to very uncivilly call bullshit.
  18. Well there is some truth to that. But, if there is something that I think most Democrats could agree on, it's; Jamie Dimon should go piss up a rope.
  19. LOL. That's good.
  20. When your libertarian overlords are being naughty, naughty. We had here in the US, the Treasury departments one page “analysis” and now we have: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/01/world-bank-gamed-data-to-make-chiles-socialist-party-look-bad/ At the risk of sounding uncivil, crass, unpolished, and unrefined, I just have to say, this sounds like a bunch of horseshit.
  21. Just have to say, I'm not really feeling like being very civil towards Republicans right about now.
  22. I'd submit that when Republicans went after unions, they knew what they were doing. By destroying a traditional source of money for Democrats, many were forced to go to places like Wall Street.
  23. Yep. Democrats should drop him like third period french. On a number of policy matters Dimon has simply been wrong, whether we're talking about his crying about equity capital requirements for banks or his debt chicken littleing back in 2012 or so and his opinions on monetary policy. His nonsense would fit right in the Republican Party. ETA: It's probably very "uncivil" for me to say this, but Dimon can go piss up a rope.
  24. Dimon is still hanging around the Democratic Party? Nobody has asked him to leave? Dimon is a clown. He’s spews so much bullshit. He needs to go to the Republican Party. That's where he belongs with his "pro-business" and "pro free enterprise" bullshit. He can join the "Party of Business" and like the rest of the "Party Of Business" he can spew nonsensical bullshit. He'll fit right in.
  25. When it comes to the David Dukes of the world and the Daily Stormer crowd, I have no inclination to be "civil". In fact, I'd argue I have a duty as a human being to be extremely uncivil to these clowns.