40 Thousand Skeletons

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About 40 Thousand Skeletons

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  1. I think it is unlikely but absolutely possible that the merchant was himself a FM, considering that Varys probably has FM connections, and the guy used a tactic extremely similar to what Arya did later. No, if the attempt had succeeded it would have killed Drogo. Dany was going to drink the wine with him later, not drink it alone. This would have completely ruined their plans, which according to Illyrio was years of planning. I think you are underestimating Varys . The simplest explanation, IMHO, is that Varys hired the merchant and explicitly warned Jorah about it, and Jorah obfuscated the full truth from Dany, because he had fallen in love with her by then and was trying to seek forgiveness, and telling her the whole thing was fake may have just pissed her off even more. But even if Varys wasn't explicit, he definitely at least warned Jorah there would be attempts and expected him to protect Dany.
  2. But there are two big problems with your time line. First and more importantly, like I said before Illyrio did not marry his wife "whilst" Varys was in KL. He married her whilst whispers of Varys talents spread to the ears of Aerys. We really have no idea how much time passed between Aerys first hearing about Varys and actually summoning him to KL. Second, it is implied (because the book content is basically chronological) that Varys was already in KL by the time Rhaegar got married in early 279, so really, even if Illyrio waited until Varys was in KL to marry his wife (which there is no implication of) that could have been a full year earlier than your proposed time line. Also, fAegon could potentially be younger than Aegon. Obviously not too much younger or they couldn't fool JonCon, but certainly a few months at least.
  3. Aah, OK. I think it is actually a bit more ambiguous than your characterization though. Here is the exact quote I believe you are referring to: So yeah, he uses the word "whilst". But in the context of Illyrio telling the entire life story of him and Varys, I could easily see it being a number of years in between Illyrio's first marriage and Varys actually travelling to KL (which was in 278 I think). And he didn't even say "whilst Varys was in KL" or anything like that. He just said that Aerys heard about Varys during that period of time.
  4. Well, those were just random points off the top of my head. There is certainly a lot more evidence for fAegon Blackfyre/Brightfyre. Sure, there are alternative answers to most points about every theory. But we each have to believe that something is the most likely explanation . I am curious how you came to the conclusion that Illyrio and Serra's son would be 15 at the oldest. Not saying you are wrong, I just have no idea what that is based on.
  5. It isn't obvious to me by the nature of your statement that you know what the word condescending means. Here, let me help you out: condescending: adjective -having or showing a feeling of patronizing superiority. See how condescending I was just now? Because that's how your statements come across.
  6. This is a totally legit explanation and I won't be surprised if you turn out to be correct. I just think it is more likely he is alive. Typically when major characters like Ned, Cat, and Robb actually die it is not ambiguous at all. And ambiguous deaths like Bran, Rickon, and Mance turn out to be fake. I think GRRM purposely left Quentyn's fate ambiguous because he is alive. If he was actually dead I think GRRM would have made it more definitive. But I could be wrong
  7. Can of worms or no, you have thoroughly convinced me that you have substantial knowledge of the text and have thought things through, unlike a lot of other people. And I will be more inclined to pay attention to your theories in the future. -Dreams of fire and blood do indeed tend to afflict Targaryens -I doubt noblewomen of Norvos would have the Targ coloring. The Valyrian dragonriders generally tried to keep dragon riding genes in the family. Lys, by contrast, is full of people with dragon rider looks, because that was where the nobility went to hang out with prostitutes. However, it may be irrelevant to your theory because I think it is totally possible that a light-skinned woman from Norvos could have a Valyrian looking baby with Doran, who potentially has the right recessive genes via Daenerys (wife of Maron Martell). -Mellario is a mystery, and I agree that the given explanation does not make much sense. -Young Griff being Lemore's son would make sense. -I agree that Quentyn is alive. LOL there is definitely no need to convince anybody of your theories. I would estimate that 99% of people don't buy into my own grand theory. But if you want people to take you seriously, it's good to at least show that you are not just randomly pulling theories out of thin air, because a lot of people on the forum do that (no offense to anyone else reading this, I wasn't talking about you ).
  8. Looking forward to it!
  9. Obviously I have read those chapters. Your suggestion is pointless and condescending.
  10. LOL I don't think I was being hostile. In fact, I was specifically making an extra effort to be diplomatic, and then you said "Come on, don't be shy. Say what you really think. It will only make it all the more fun for me when you find out I was right." So I proceeded to tell you what I really think... as you requested. I know you are relatively new to the forum, but generally speaking if you are going to state a new theory out of left field, so to speak, it is helpful to summarize at least a couple key pieces of evidence that led you to the conclusion in the first place. That would be perfectly appropriate in this thread. I am not asking for proof, or 100% of the evidence, just a few bullet points would be nice. A couple pieces of evidence other than "it's possible" would be helpful for the sake of discussion. OK, Doran wants his son to be on the Iron Throne. That's a good point to make. But it is thoroughly unconvincing without other points to back it up. Did Aegon have blue eyes at 18 months? I certainly hope so for the sake of fAegon. He was a prince, and a number of people would have seen him as a baby and made note of his Targaryen features. If baby Aegon had brown eyes, then trying to pass off fAegon as real could be super risky. But I suppose it is technically possible for Aegon to have been born with Targaryen features that very quickly went to Dornish, but everyone who saw baby Aegon is dead and GRRM was being super deceptive with that SSM saying that Aegon looked Targaryen. I am sure that convincing me with evidence is not beyond your power, if the evidence is actually there. Perhaps I wouldn't subscribe to your theory, but I might give it a much higher probability of being correct. Because right now I give it like a 0.3% chance. I have changed my mind on almost every theory I originally subscribed to because the evidence convinced me otherwise. Like... I used to think Aegon was totally legit (Rhaegar's son), and now I don't. I can't prove that Aegon is Illyrio's son, but I can give you pieces of evidence. Here's a few off the top of my head: Illyrio claimed to Tyrion that he had helped out Viserys in the hopes of being named Master of Coin. This explanation seems a bit lacking. Illyrio is already super rich and has all the luxuries he could possibly want. Why does he want to be Master of Coin in Westeros? Illyrio had a wife Serra who died in a plague. It is definitely possible that they had a child/children. In which case, where could Illyrio's children be? Illyrio claims to have a contract with the GC "writ in blood". Since the very existence of the GC is directly linked to the Blackfyre rebellions, it would make sense if Illyrio is a Blackfyre. But obviously it is Aegon, not Illyrio, who they are trying to put on the IT, so it would make sense if Aegon is Illyrio's son. There is a statue in Illyrio's manse surrounded by blackberry trees. Illyrio claims it is of himself (while young), which is a bit odd, because he obviously didn't have the statue made until he was rich, old, and fat. It may actually be a contemporary statue of Aegon, his son. Jorah gave Dany a stack of old Westerosi children's books for a wedding gift. This seems intended to manipulate Dany's feelings (into supporting a Westeros invasion with Drogo) and was probably actually from Illyrio, just like the servants given to her by Viserys. But oddly, the books are old. Did Jorah, or Illyrio, take a trip to the used book store in Pentos and buy some children's stories as a gift? Probably not. It is more likely that these books belonged to young Aegon, who probably lived at Illyrio's manse when he was a child. Illyrio seemed super sad when he was not provided the opportunity to speak to Aegon in ADWD, hinting at some deep emotional attachment. Aegon being his son would explain this. See, like that! Just a few basic details from the story to support your claim. It takes 2 seconds... if you actually have evidence to back up your theory, which right now I honestly doubt because you keep refusing to provide any. EDIT: Here, I will even get you started by inferring things you may already think. Doran lies all the time, and his story about his wife is kind of illogical. He may be hiding something important. Septa Lemore has given birth. Is her child someone important? It would make sense if she was actually raising her child. Yandry and Ysilla are Orphans of the Greenblood, and the Orphans are generally on super good terms with Doran. So there, some evidence supporting your theory that I still am unconvinced by. If you have other evidence beyond those points I would sincerely be interested in reading it.
  11. Did you also have blue eyes at age 5 that turned brown? Because that I would not believe at all. OK, forgetting the hair and eye color changing. Your argument that there is only one option for a baby swap makes zero sense. Aegon could be real (I doubt it), Illyrio's son (by far the most likely answer), or even just a random baby with Valyrian looks, a pisswater prince if you will. And the background details that you are referring to are absolutely not pointless even if you are wrong (which I think is quite likely). And maybe you could convince me with evidence, but so far you have only presented speculation. Could Quentyn be Aegon. It's possible. Could Pretty Meris be Ashara Dayne. Just as possible. But I don't see much evidence for either one.
  12. Obviously GRRM can do what he wants with genetics, but in the real world, babies' eye color and hair color is basically set by about 6 months old. Aegon was about 18 months old when he was killed/swapped. Again, your theory is technically possible as far as I can tell, but I think that would be a huge stretch to say that an 18 month old Targ-looking Aegon grew up to look Dornish. I am also curious, why are so confident that this baby swap occurred? I get that it is sort of a "neat and tidy" explanation, and that the pieces sort of "fit" but again I don't see any evidence for Varys and Doran working together. And I am completely baffled as to why Doran has just sent Arianne to meet with Aegon and not tell her it is her brother, and then at the same time sabotage their potential alliance by sending Daemon Sand with her. All of the clues point to Doran not supporting Aegon in TWOW. The entire Doran plot really just doesn't make sense with your theory. Also, is this a theory you came up with, or is it from somewhere else originally?
  13. @Lew Theobald I was unaware of that SSM. I think that definitely foils your theory Lew Theobald.
  14. I do not "cling" to evidence, ser. I analyze the evidence. If you aren't going to bother watching the PJ video I am not going to bother rehashing the whole thing here. But I will address a couple key things since you called me out . This is Viserion's fire melting brass in that scene: So it is very odd that the brass in Quentyn's whip handle does not melt. GRRM generally pays close attention to such details. And yes, I am aware that he had gold impossibly melting in a cooking pot in AGOT, but I would still expect him to have consistency within a single scene. I think Quentyn would have commented on the metal handle of his whip melting all over his hand. Additionally, the melting point of brass is lower than the temperature required to ignite leather. This means that barring author error, it was the oil in the whip, and not the leather itself, that was on fire. And really, if Quentyn was hit with full dragon flame, he shouldn't have any time to narrate what he sees. He should just scream and die immediately, which is not what happened. He even described shielding his eyes from a "furnace wind" which sounds like a description of hot dragon breath, and not dragon fire. And that scenario just makes way more sense based on Quentyn's narration: Quentyn shielded his eyes from Rhaegal's hot breath, the oil in his whip (which would have a relatively low flash point of around 400 degrees F) ignited and started spreading to his arm and his body, lighting Quentyn on fire, and then Quentyn, who was initially quite surprised at being on fire (understandably) starts to panic and scream. And the chapter ends. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY: GRRM has already pulled burning fake outs with both Mance and the Stark boys. Is it really so hard to believe he would do so with Quentyn? After all, the dead man's face was completely burned off, down to the skull, and his eyes were pools of pus (which seems inconsistent with Quentyn, who saw himself on fire). This man was unrecognizable, and we have no proof it was actually Quentyn. And Missandei, describing the dead man, said: which is a bit odd because Could Quentyn be dead? Sure. And I wouldn't even be surprised. But I am betting he is alive. If you asked me to put a specific number on it, I would say there is an ~85% chance he is alive.
  15. LOL well, you have failed to address all his legit arguments then I don't think it is at all fair to describe PJ as beyond crackpot, but I DON'T WANT TO ARGUE ABOUT THE VALIDITY OF PJ HERE! That is a whole can of worms...