Nihlus

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  1. 1,000 infantry and ~1,000 mostly heavy horsemen is actually a lot more than it sounds. 14th century Western European military thought held that every heavy cavalryman is equal in value to six standard infantrymen (e.g. spearmen, foot archers, billmen), and every mounted archer or light cavalryman is equal to three (of course, this coming with the assumption that we're talking about well-trained decently-equipped men for both cavalry and infantry, with the same set of standards). Only exceptions were crossbowmen (who were equal to 1 light cavalryman/mounted archer or 1/2 of a heavy cavalryman) and dismounted men-at-arms.
  2. Maybe, maybe not. Kievan Rus' had a surprisingly high number of people living in cities, to make up for the fact that notable mid-sized towns (and even large villages) basically didn't exist. The North doesn't seem to follow the same model though.
  3. That incident where 12,000 soldiers and presumably 3,000 civilians were hold up in it is literally the only indication we have of its overall population. I should note that the exact wording, "full to bursting", was used both for describing Wintertown's usual population in the winter/spring months and for describing it when the soldiers were hold up in it. So, 15,000 is as solid and indisputable figure as we're likely to get. If it's larger than Wintertown, which it probably is, it's likely over 15,000 since it's not described as a ghost town. Well, by GRRM's wording anyway. In our reality a lot more settlements would be considered cities. Medieval Krakow only had 10,000 people in the year 1300, and it was the largest city in and capital of Poland. Sandomierz was the second largest 'city' with 5,000 people. Esztergom, the capital and largest city of the medieval kingdom of Hungary, had a population of 12,000 in the mid 13th century. Wintertown and Barrowton are almost certainly larger than either of them, same with Hewett's town.
  4. The Karstarks still fit in it, and "full to bursting" is how it's described as being for half the year, so yeah that's its population. I made a mistake, the population is actually 15,000. Not 12,000. 12,000 soldiers occupy 4/5 of the houses (the ones not already taken) and put it close to max capacity. Lord Hewett's town is good evidence that there are a lot of smaller cities we do not hear about in Westeros (or at least what our world would that term cities at that time). Pebbleton has several thousand people (~3,000-6,000). Lordsport is noticeably bigger, say ~5,000-6,000. Hewett's town, at twice the size, would have a population of 10,000-12,000. And it's still not important enough to get a real name. I would bet anything that Duskendale, Stoney Sept, and Barrowton are noticeably bigger.
  5. I was reading a well-sourced paper recently about medieval European demographics. The paper stated that in the late 14th/early 15th century, the time period most closely matching Westeros's technology and structure, there were 117 cities in medieval Europe ("city" defined as being over 10,000 people) with the top 92 totaling 3.5% of Europe's population ( 2.73 million people given that Europe's population was 78 million at the time). With those remaining cities averaging a bit over 10,000, you could bump that up to a total of 3 million people living in major urban areas (3.85% of the population). I'll try to use those ratios to estimate the population of Westeros. The bulk of Westeros's city population lives in the five big ones. King's Landing (500,000), Oldtown (said to be similar to King's Landing, ~400,000), Lannisport (generally estimated around 300,000), Gulltown (said to have several tens of thousands of people but not hundreds of thousands, ~60,000), and White Harbor (ditto, ~60,000). 1.32 million people. Aside from those, there does seem to be a few other urban areas with populations greater than 10,000- Wintertown has 15,000, Barrowton about the same. Stoney Sept is implied to be much bigger than any settlement except the big five (it's listed as one of six major bases of the Faith), Duskendale is probably pretty big, and then you have other places like Planky Town. Say there are ~15 other cities on the continent with an average of 10,000 people each (seems reasonable, the North has two of around 12,000 and they are very underdeveloped). That adds150,000 people to our total and gets as 1.47 million living in major urban areas. With the above ratio, that gives Westeros a population of 38.2 million. 1.47 million city dwellers would be 3.85% of that. As Westeros south of the Wall has a known surface area of approximately 3 million square miles, its population density is ~13 people per square mile. Less than late 14th century/early 15th century Europe's ~20 people per square mile. This is pretty much a confirmation of what we already knew (or at least the accepted fanon), but it's nice to have more evidence I guess.
  6. Dragon: 15,000d
  7. Yep, 2d = twopence, 12d = 1 shilling, etc.
  8. A while ago, a couple forumites were claiming things like "a knight was equivalent to twenty billmen in medieval England" when discussing the relative strengths of the armies of the Seven Kingdoms (since, unlike Bronze Age to Iron Age Essos, they all seem to be on a similar tech level). But they could never produce the sources stating that when I asked for them. I think I finally know where those assertions came from: the muster rolls and pay rolls of Edward I's army in the 1300 Scotland campaign, one of the most well-documented hosts of the period. These rolls have been cited or transcribed in a variety of history books, such as "Edward I" by Michael Prestwich (p. 484-486). A viewable ebook that cites said documents is this, though it seems to get the billman wage wrong (every other book I've read, including the cited one, says 2d instead of 3d). Anyway, the rolls detail how much each soldier was paid each day by the king or the magnates in exchange for their service, with pay depending on their role. If it interests any of you, then this is what soldiers were worth relative to each other in the eyes of the 14th century English nobility: Knight: 24d. Man-at-Arms (heavy cavalry): 12d. Mounted Sergeant: 12d Hobelar (light cavalry): 6d Mounted Archer: 6d Crossbowman: 4-6d. Foot Archer: 2-3d. Spearman/Billman: 2d. So 1 spearman/billman/archer was the basic unit, a crossbowman was worth 2 spearmen/billmen/archers, a light cavalryman was worth 3 spearmen/billmen/archers, a heavy cavalryman was worth 6 spearmen/billmen/archers, and a full knight (who was also expected to act as an officer commanding a unit) was worth 12 spearmen/billmen/archers. That might help if you would like to determine how wealthy certain regions are relative to each other, based on their army numbers. The only thing missing is ships and how much they cost to maintain and man, but that only really matters for the Crownlands, Iron Islands, and the southwest islands.
  9. So? A sellsword is a mercenary, per Martin. Those ships captains are mercenaries. And they command thousands of men. Never confirmed actually, it's not like Renly has a way to tell. We know there are lords on the mainland sworn to Dragonstone, these would have likely gained some lands. it includes mainland holdings as well. And if anything the population increase in that region should have been much higher than just about anywhere else in Westeros. Dragonstone is now a major stop on a trade route (hence why Stannis was able to impress so many large merchant ships) when formerly it and the lands and islands around it had nothing. There's no real reason to doubt the ~3,000 number.
  10. When all kingdoms use more or less the same social system and the Riverlands are specifically described as dense and rich? Yes, it absolutely does. Except the Riverlands are still described as rich in general. They can't reach the relatively insane mobilization rate of the Westerlands (which have probably half their population, yet a similarly-sized army albeit with mercenaries) but they should be above most regions. 1% is a good rule of thumb. And the Riverlands having far more than 2-2.5 million people is a fact mandated by how GRRM describes them and their area on the map. Look at the Stormlands on a map. Note how much the Riverlands are geographically larger. Note also that the Riverlands are explicitly richer and denser. How much can they raise in your mind? 15,000 or something similarly ridiculous? And Dorne is explicitly less populous and likely poorer than even the Stormlands, so what about them? Under 10,000? The Riverlands being below 40-50k is basically an impossibility, even if it would be hard to actually gather all those men in the field. Again, you're basically just making stuff up here. You can't compare the Karstark lands to the Riverlands at all, and you're again ignoring that the majority of the Riverlands' population base wasn't even available to Edmure. The Riverlands is divided into four roughly equally sized areas: 1. The Northwest never saw a Lannister in the initial invasion, and is home to the Mallisters, Vyprens, and Freys. They also didn't take any losses in the initial blitz as a result. Edmure had access to this region, which combined with whatever remained of region three (see below) yielded 15,000 men (11,000 at Riverrun plus 4,000 Freys with Robb and at the Twins). 2. The Southwest bore the brunt of Jaime's attacks at Golden Tooth and Riverrun as well as Tywin initially marching through. It consists of Tullys, Pipers and Vances. The Pipers and Vances lost the majority of their strength (the lords of those houses were even personally present) when their combined host was annihilated by Jaime's much larger army at Golden Tooth; assuming each of those are on par with mid-sized North or Stormlands houses like Dondarrion and Karstark, that's already ~5,000- men down the drain off the bat. The Tullys own forces (obviously some of the first to be levied, and at full strength defending their own capital), combined with levies from Blackwood and Bracken (see below) and whatever remained of Vance and Piper, took very heavy losses (the de facto king of a whole country doesn't get captured otherwise) and were routed in the battle outside of Riverrun. Some of them joined Robb, others became brigands, others deserted. But by the time Edmure is rescued their strength has largely been spent. 3. The central south suffered from the battle of Riverrun, Tywin marching through and later being the stage of the Mountain's, the Goat's and Lorch's antics, suffering heavy losses. Stonehedge burned, Darry burned and the family extinguished. The Blackwoods, Brackens and Darrys suffered heavily in various small battles, as their troops were dispersed and defeated in detail. The Darrys' own capital being burned with little resistance by a tertiary force heavily suggests they probably didn't even put their full levy in the field before their land was occupied and thus recruitment was rendered impossible, and in any case had no strength to give past that point. The Blackwoods and Brackens would have suffered a lot at Riverrun, but would still have some strength left to make up the 15,000 the Riverlands has later, especially since Tywin doesn't occupy them for several months unlike... 4. The eastern part which was cut off completely as soon as Tywin planted his ass in Harrenhal, thus making any move into that land strategically untenable for the Tully/Stark alliance. It could never get a proper mobilization up and running on part of being occupied within probably about a week, suffering without defense. The Whents, Mootons, and whoever else lives here yielded not a single soldier for Edmure. Catelyn said there were ten thousand lancers in a particular group. She didn't say if that was all of them, or even if she took an exact count (which would be impossible anyway). But the fact that Robb's cavalry is explicitly all heavy cavalry would heavily suggest that Renly's were too (after all, the Reach is richer than the North and would logically have a higher proportion of such men). Also we know that 1/10 of the average soldiers in the South are full-on knights from several descriptions (e.g. the Field of Fire), which implies at least 1/10 of them being squires as well (who would be well-equipped, not freeriders in boiled leather).
  11. Population density and geography make this completely impossible, sorry. The Riverlands are described as rich and densely populated, and should easily have 50% to 90% more population than the Westerlands or Vale owing to how much bigger and more fertile it is than either. The rest of your post is based on pure supposition (poorly done supposition as well, as it compares two regions that couldn't be more different in terms of geography and completely ignores the fact that the majority of the Riverlands' manpower base was cut off from Edmure at this point). Renly is taking into account the fact that two major Riverlands hosts were annihilated (at Golden Tooth and outside Riverrun), that Tywin is sitting in the middle of it thus completely cutting off the southeast of the country, and the fact that it takes weeks to assemble a levy, which Edmure had not done ahead of time.
  12. There's nothing nonsensical about any of those numbers. In fact the numbers given for latter three are basically just repeating what Martin said about them each being able to raise around 50,000 (back when Dorne could raise that much). I also don't think it makes sense for them NOT to be mercenary ship captains, because those dozens of ships require thousands of men to crew and they would be fully within their rights to consider themselves among Stannis's most important sub-commanders. We never get a detailed breakdown on his cavalry, other than that there are at least 100 anointed knights among them (which given other figures implies 200-300 heavy cavalry overall). And it has already been confirmed that there was no significant number of mercenaries included in the 3,000, the Lord of Dragonstone can raise that much from his own lands. 1. We don't know who else he has, or if their lands have stayed the same. Certainly it seems likely that Aegon would have expanded the lands of people loyal to him at the expense of his enemies; it seems equally likely that the Crownlands would have a population and economic boom in the last 300 years (more so than the rest of the continent) on part of going from a backwoods province of the Stormlands to the trading and urban hub of the entire continent. 2. Why exactly are we assuming that the population, wealth, and social structure of a region has stayed completely static for over 300 years?
  13. Those sellsword captains are likely the ones who own those Myrish war galleys Davos sees coming in. You'd need several thousand men to man those. I actually double-checked the 2005 RPG which had its numbers reviewed by Martin, and no, you're wrong here: "The isle of Dragonstone can bring forth a small force of perhaps 3,000 men-at-arms and knights — 400 of which would be mounted. Dragonstone’s true power is in the fleet, which supports the bulk of the royal fleet. Dragonstone floats 160 ships, 80 of which are full galleys that dip 100 or more oars." It's flat-out stated that the lord of Dragonstone can field 3,000 soldiers, including 400 mounted men. So A. all of the cavalry came from Dragonstone, and B. the foot soldiers (at this point at least) did not include a significant number of mercenaries. Also, an unrelated fun fact: the same booklet also confirms that the ships of the Iron Fleet do indeed dip 100 oars or more, putting them at similar size to the war galleys of the royal fleet.
  14. Scotland has an area of 31,000 square miles, and throughout most of the Middle Ages (including the mid to late 14th century, the closest to ASOIAF) had a population of 300,000-400,000. That's 9.5-13 people per square mile. England/Wales at the same time had 2.5 million people (England/Wales itself, not the Kingdom of England which included Ireland and chunks of France) in an area of 58,000 square miles, which is indeed around 40 per square mile. France (including the parts owned by England- long story) was 200,000 square miles with a population of 15 million, a whopping 75 people per square mile. The land later comprising 1914 Germany had 9 million in 208,000 square miles, or 43 per square mile, similar to England. Speaking of which, has anyone ever tallied the land area of each of the Seven Kingdoms? The North has been stated- GRRM said the Land of Always Winter is the size of Canada, that Westeros as a whole is the size of South America, and that the North is a third of the land ruled by the Iron Throne. That 6.89 million square miles (South America) minus 3.86 million square miles (Canada) equals ~3 million square miles. So the North is ~1 million square miles, and all the others together are ~2 million square miles. That should make it possible to get pixel measurements.
  15. Also complicating things is that a decent chunk of the North's population still seems to live outside the "civilized" order. Ignoring the England-sized Gift (effectively an independent state under the Watch), you also have Skagos, the lands of the mountain clansmen (which seem to consist of several tens of thousands of square miles), the lands of the crannogmen (most everything between Greywater Watch and Moat Cailin), etc. These areas would contribute nothing, period, bar maybe a few nobles. But they're still part of the Northern population. I also recently came to the conclusion that in all likelihood the North is the second most populous of the Seven Kingdoms. I used to scoff at that notion, but its canon size (1/3 the land of the land under the Iron Throne per TWOIAF, or ~1 million square miles) makes it pretty much required. Kievan Rus is by far the most comparable medieval kingdom in terms of geography and it had a population density of about 10 people per square mile. So did medieval Scotland. Even considering the above mentioned peoples (whose lands should have even lower population density than the average) the North's population should still be approaching ten million.