What is going on Winterfell? A call for facts...

[BondJamesBond]

With the winds of winter swirling, my memory is getting a little hazy. Here is the best I can recall:

Ramsay had WF since he took it from Theon. Then the RW happened. Ramsay is legitimized by Tommen. Then Stannis rallied the mountain clans to move on WF. Then Roose took his army and "bannermen" including the Manderlys and took up residence of WF. Ramsay marries "Arya". There isn't much food and there is tension between Wyman Manderly and the Boltons.

At some point, Tywin is killed by Tyrion and it becomes doubly clear the Boltons are on their own. Not sure how many Freys are in WF, too, but they are allied with Boltons with Manderly loyalty suspect as well as suspect loyalty for other northern houses who I can't remember.

Stannis is outside WF with his army. Theon escapes with Arya/Jayne.

Something happens (a battle likely) that we don't know, yet, though WoW spoilers give us a hint. Then someone (I think it's Ramsay) sends the Pink letter to Jon.

Who is outside the walls? What is going on inside? It seems like a total cluster-you-know-what.

Am I close? Can anyone reconstruct a timeline?

[ninewinter]

it's a fact that we can't be sure who really made the Pink letter, whether its the bastard, or Melisandre, or Mance. We cant be sure what the pink letter describe is true or just a jape. We need to wait for WoW for that.

[BondJamesBond]

it's a fact that we can't be sure who really made the Pink letter, whether its the bastard, or Melisandre, or Mance. We cant be sure what the pink letter describe is true or just a jape. We need to wait for WoW for that.

Agreed, but does anyone know the full picture. Does what I described above cover the main points?

[Jon of the Dead]

As far as we know (thanks to the WoW chapter),

Stannis' army is in a nearby village, preparing to attack the Boltons. Stannis discovered that the Karstarks were in league with Roose and he arrested them. He also holds Theon prisoner and is going to execute him, and Asha and her crew were allowed to fight in the battle. As for the Boltons, I think they sent 3 forces from WF, one of Freys, one of Manderlys, and one lead by Ramsey himself, but I don't remember that last part well enough

[Ice and fire freak]

As far as we know (thanks to the WoW chapter),

Stannis' army is in a nearby village, preparing to attack the Boltons. Stannis discovered that the Karstarks were in league with Roose and he arrested them. He also holds Theon prisoner and is going to execute him, and Asha and her crew were allowed to fight in the battle. As for the Boltons, I think they sent 3 forces from WF, one of Freys, one of Manderlys, and one lead by Ramsey himself, but I don't remember that last part well enough

Well yep I reckon this sums it all up I reckon,I know time lines can be hard work in these books but this was a sample from the next book so I will go with this,the pink letter is a bit of a red herring I reckon.

[Not Dead Just Broken]

Also, someone is in Winterfell killing Frey and Bolton men.

I tend to believe the Pink Letter is mostly BS. I'm not sure if Ramsay even captured all of Mance's party or just one or two spearwives. I think it's pretty clear that the battle that Ramsay claims he won in seven days hasn't happened yet. After all, why not just march up the Kingsroad and attack Castle Black if Stannis is actually dead? So, as I see it at the end of Dance, Ramsay has his army of Freys and Manderlys going out to meet Stannis in the village he's holed up in. Roose is holding the castle along with Lady Dustin and some other assorted Northmen.

Also, *spoiler* Stannis is planning to use the ground against Ramsays horses. I'm seeing some sort of skating rink type deal. Pretty simple to flood the battlefield and let it freeze. I can't believe that Ramsay with his untrustworthy allies has a chance against the very prepared Stannis we see in TWOW preview chapter.

[BondJamesBond]

Ok, this really clears up the picture for me. Thanks to all who responded.

Now, since Manderly loyalty to Roose is highly suspect, do we know how Manderly is positioned? I'm assuming Roose put them behind the Freys and in front of Ramsay's force of loyalists. That way the Freys take the brunt of the assault, the Manderlys can be whipped on by Ramsay and the Bolton loyalists are in the back so they can retreat if things goes bad.

This is basically how Roose operates but I'm just speculating.

Also, it will be interesting to see if Manderly plans to do a double cross on the battlefield and help Stannis. Perhaps he has a messenger to Stannis?

[Eira Seren]

Lady Dustin is also a strong Bolton supporter, but finds Ramsay disgusting and, due to the Ryswell men lost at the RW, is also at odds with the Freys.

I'm curious to know if Stannis wrote the Pink Letter,

based on info from Theon (TWOW chapter)

[alienarea]

I wouldn't be surprised if Roose, who stayed at Winterfell with his most loyal men, uses them to slaughter the Manderlys that remained there, to get rid of them and secure the food. And then retreat calmly to the Dreadfort. Whoever wins the battle of ice starves in the snow.

[Ice and fire freak]

I wouldn't be surprised if Roose, who stayed at Winterfell with his most loyal men, uses them to slaughter the Manderlys that remained there, to get rid of them and secure the food. And then retreat calmly to the Dreadfort. Whoever wins the battle of ice starves in the snow.

I wonder will Theon tell Stannis how he captured Winterfell with Grapling hooks,there a tree I think that leans close to one of its walls,like you say to stop from starving they would need to take Winterfell pronto.

[Shadrich]

I wouldn't be surprised if Roose, who stayed at Winterfell with his most loyal men, uses them to slaughter the Manderlys that remained there, to get rid of them and secure the food. And then retreat calmly to the Dreadfort. Whoever wins the battle of ice starves in the snow.

If he slays Manderlys, he will loose the support of most of the Northern Houses (Umbers, Lockes, rest of Manderlys etc.).

[Matoro]

I wouldn't be surprised if Roose, who stayed at Winterfell with his most loyal men, uses them to slaughter the Manderlys that remained there, to get rid of them and secure the food. And then retreat calmly to the Dreadfort. Whoever wins the battle of ice starves in the snow.

Retreating from Winterfell isn't option. The North is de facto ruled from Winterfell, even if Boltons are Wardens of the North. Northmen will follow the one with Winterfell. Well, most of them. And if Roose retreats from Winterfell, he fails completely at his job. He is Warden of the North, he is supposed to defend North against foreign intruders. Right now he rules by fear - he has only a few truly loyal allies. And Freys are going te get butchered by Stannis.

Backstabbing Manderly and retreating to the Dreadfort would be a political suicide for Boltons. The North would probably rally behind Stannis (and Rickon Stark, who is in his way from Skagos). Freys would be annihilated from the North and Boltons would be sieged.

No, there's no coming back. Boltons have to win or die. That's how a game of thrones works.

[Eira Seren]

I think Roose will definitely try to sacrifice the Freys to save his skin. I doubt it will work, after reading the Theon TWOW chapter. Unless by then Manderly is no longer alive. But even then, there are those stray Northmen he'll have to try to hang onto, and as we know

Arnold Karstark is currently out of operation, thanks to Stannis

[Iona]

Retreating from Winterfell isn't option. The North is de facto ruled from Winterfell, even if Boltons are Wardens of the North. Northmen will follow the one with Winterfell. Well, most of them. And if Roose retreats from Winterfell, he fails completely at his job. He is Warden of the North, he is supposed to defend North against foreign intruders.

I can only imagine the temper tantrum Ramsay will throw if anyone suggests they abandon Winterfell. At the end of ADWD, just before they discover Little Walder's body, Theon observes that Roose and Ramsay are having an argument on the dais (with regards to some letter it would seem), and that their fight frightens Fat Walda. I wonder if Roose already has a back up plan just in case, and Ramsay is not liking it.

[Eira Seren]

I can only imagine the temper tantrum Ramsay will throw if anyone suggests they abandon Winterfell. At the end of ADWD, just before they discover Little Walder's body, Theon observes that Roose and Ramsay are having an argument on the dais (with regards to some letter it would seem), and that their fight frightens Fat Walda. I wonder if Roose already has a back up plan just in case, and Ramsay is not liking it.

good call

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

here's a thread i started a while ago that tried to clarify how things were left in Winterfell and it's surroundings at the end of ADwD and the start of Twow...there are some errors (like the number of Freys is off by a little bit) but the basics are there:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/73915-spoilers-the-north-at-the-end-of-adwd-and-the-start-of-awow-summarycontinuance-of-the-northern-lords-conspiracy-hooded-man-pink-letter-threads/

[Steve Lomas Longstrider]

the chapter from the WoW only tells us what has not happened outside winterfell, i.e. the battle has not taken place and stannis is not dead, it fails to tell us what has happened within winterfell, with all the mistrust and intrigue.

i personally think mance sent the letter, based on nothing more than the fact that i've always found him quite an intruiging character and quite want him to have a bigger role to play.

[Dead Wolf]

I believe Manderly and the other northmen are preparing to slaughter Roose and his men when Marlon Manderly returns from battle, likely having let the Freys get cut to pieces by Stannis

[redriver]

the chapter from the WoW only tells us what has not happened outside winterfell, i.e. the battle has not taken place and stannis is not dead, it fails to tell us what has happened within winterfell, with all the mistrust and intrigue.

i personally think mance sent the letter, based on nothing more than the fact that i've always found him quite an intruiging character and quite want him to have a bigger role to play.

On that subject I wonder who's POV is going to relate the story of what happens inside Winterfell?We have no eyes there since Theon jumped,yet this is a tale that has to be told.

Mance?One of the spearwives in a Prologue?

[The Crow's Third Eye]

Also.add to the facts that Wyman Manderly himself was wounded quite significantly; he was sliced by a Frey in the neck-chin area. Entirely possible the wound could kill him, but equally possible he will live. Hother Umber remaind inside WF, and presumably Mors Umber intends to stand against thr Boltons outside WF. still confused as to why they didnt accompany the Banker