Who poisoned the locusts?

[RK Rajagopal]

But you are putting the cart before the horse on this.

You are trying to argue the poison was non-lethal in order to pin this on the Shavepate. That is circular logic.

IF the poison was meant to be non- lethal and IF the point was to create a shit storm to blame on Hiz, THEN yes, the Shavepate probably did it, or at least, Hiz can be safely eliminated as a culprit.

IF the poison was lethal THEN it probably was not the Shavepate (though depending on what he's looking for, he shouldn't be eliminated). If it was lethal posion, Hiz looks better for it.

But, for heaven's sake, whether the poison was meant to be lethal is still a huge question. This is hardly conclusive, as both parties have ample motive to poison Hiz's food, and the intended outcome of the poison is still a mystery.

You have misunderstood me. I am collecting all the facts, and seeing which of the 4 cases is the best fit. True, we don't know for sure if the poison was lethal or not. But if it is lethal, as you state above, the actions of both players seem less than intelligent. However, if the poison was non-lethal, everything fits.

[Iona]

Sigh. Read again what I wrote previously, please. If the symptoms appear many hours later, people are unlikely to make the connection, especially if Hizdahr had a chance to pretend to be eating.

I could see Hizdahr and the Green Grace being in on this scenario together, with Hiz eating some of the locust and then excusing himself to the privy to purge himself with some laxatives he got from GG.

[Fire Eater]

It is the Shavepate. Hizdahr was Dany's king, and challenged the Shavepate's power in Meereen, removing him form his post. If both Dany and Hizdahr were poisoned and died, then the SHavepate could pin the blame on the Yunkai'i telling Dany's supporters that they betrayed her, and then he would lead an unexpected attack on the Yunkai'i. He would then be the one in charge of Meereen.

I don't think it was the Harpy or Hizdahr. They had gotten what they wanted in the peace treaty, and without Dany they would have no one to control the dragons. Even the Shavepate admits that the peace was real until the events of the pit. I also don't think it was the Harpy since it is the most obvious presented culprit. We were led into believing the Lannisters poisoned Jon Arryn as well only for it to be revealed that Lysa did it at Petyr's behest. Lysa was the one who accused the Lannisters of poisoning Jon Arryn.

[Djinn]

Sansa did it. It just typical of her, go around randomly poisoning people.

[Ygrain]

I did read it. I just disagree with you. I think people might well make the connection.

That would also depend if they have the time to act on it at all, though.

I could see Hizdahr and the Green Grace being in on this scenario together, with Hiz eating some of the locust and then excusing himself to the privy to purge himself with some laxatives he got from GG.

Or being given an antidote beforehands.

[RK Rajagopal]

One more point - if Hizdar had this plan to poison Dany, surely he would have planned what to do afterwards. Naturally, he would be targeted by Dany's most loyal people. So the natural course of action would be to capture people close to Dany, like Selmy. Instead, he just goes on with his job without having any idea that he might be a suspect. I think he would have made more of an effort to strike preemptively if he had it all planned out, and wouldn't have let himself be deposed by Selmy.

[butterbumps!]

To summarize, there are 4 possible cases - the poison can be lethal / non-lethal, and Hizdar/Shavepate did it. I don't think Non-lethal Hizdar and Lethal Shavepate make any sense. That leaves us with Lethal Hizdar and Non-lethal Shavepate. Of these two, non-lethal shavepate would fit well - I haven't seen an argument contradicting it. Lethal Hizdar might cause problems, as Dany might not eat the poison,and he'll be busted.

Non-lethal Hz is the one that can be safely eliminated.

Lethal Shavepate could still make sense depending on what he's looking to get out of this. He's basically somewhere in the equivalent of the middle class there, and he could be simply looking to redraw class lines on his own terms.

Both non-lethal Shavepate and lethal Hiz fit. I'm not trying to prove the Shavepate didn't do it; I'm arguing that the essay attempts to manipulate this to eliminate Hiz as a candidate, and I am disagreeing with the logic and premise of that.

You have misunderstood me. I am collecting all the facts, and seeing which of the 4 cases is the best fit. True, we don't know for sure if the poison was lethal or not. But if it is lethal, as you state above, the actions of both players seem less than intelligent. However, if the poison was non-lethal, everything fits.

No, I disagree. The Shavepate still could be on some rogue mission and have wanted either Hiz or Dany dead as an excuse to start this police movement he's doing. The only option that makes no sense whatsoever is non-lethal Hiz. This is the only possibility that ought to be eliminated.

It makes just as much sense for Hiz to have poisoned Dany this way as it does for the Shavepate. It's a strong argument either way-- Hiz refrains from eating a food we know he likes, and wouldn't have anticipated Dany's servants eating them. That fits just as well as either lethal/ non-lethal Shavepate.

What makes the idea of the Shavepate compelling is simply that this reading would render him something of an Essosi LF. But I kind of thought he was this anyway, even without having to pin the poisoning on him.

Frankly, that's the issue that rubs me the wrong way about these essays-- in the desire to read complementary depth into the politics of Meereen, the essay formulates the argument backwards (for instance, the conclusion of this essay is that Meereen has stuff going on here too). I do think there's a ton of intrigues going on, and the Shavepate is playing his own game. But to say that Hiz as poisoner makes no sense from this is a little dishonest, imo. Shavepate would be the more interesting choice based on what we know, but it doesn't eliminate Hiz the way it's been presented.

One more point - if Hizdar had this plan to poison Dany, surely he would have planned what to do afterwards. Naturally, he would be targeted by Dany's most loyal people. So the natural course of action would be to capture people close to Dany, like Selmy. Instead, he just goes on with his job without having any idea that he might be a suspect. I think he would have made more of an effort to strike preemptively if he had it all planned out, and wouldn't have let himself be deposed by Selmy.

I already addressed this. For all we know, he could have had a plan in place had Dany ended up dead in his viewing box. The fact that the dragon came out of nowhere and distracted from this would have been something of a change in the plan, and until confronted, it seemed like the poisoning was going to go unnoticed.

[Iona]

One more point - if Hizdar had this plan to poison Dany, surely he would have planned what to do afterwards. Naturally, he would be targeted by Dany's most loyal people. So the natural course of action would be to capture people close to Dany, like Selmy. Instead, he just goes on with his job without having any idea that he might be a suspect. I think he would have made more of an effort to strike preemptively if he had it all planned out, and wouldn't have let himself be deposed by Selmy.

You can't deny that Hiz did start to replace Dany's people - he had his own bodyguards (the pitfighthers), Missandei is described being a lonely ghost haunting the pyramid, and in the end he let's Selmy know he is not needed.

[RK Rajagopal]

Non-lethal Hz is the one that can be safely eliminated.

Lethal Shavepate could still make sense depending on what he's looking to get out of this. He's basically somewhere in the equivalent of the middle class there, and he could be simply looking to redraw class lines on his own terms.

Both non-lethal Shavepate and lethal Hiz fit. I'm not trying to prove the Shavepate didn't do it; I'm arguing that the essay attempts to manipulate this to eliminate Hiz as a candidate, and I am disagreeing with the logic and premise of that.

No, I disagree. The Shavepate still could be on some rogue mission and have wanted either Hiz or Dany dead as an excuse to start this police movement he's doing. The only option that makes no sense whatsoever is non-lethal Hiz. This is the only possibility that ought to be eliminated.

It makes just as much sense for Hiz to have poisoned Dany this way as it does for the Shavepate. It's a strong argument either way-- Hiz refrains from eating a food we know he likes, and wouldn't have anticipated Dany's servants eating them. That fits just as well as either lethal/ non-lethal Shavepate.

What makes the idea of the Shavepate compelling is simply that this reading would render him something of an Essosi LF. But I kind of thought he was this anyway, even without having to pin the poisoning on him.

Frankly, that's the issue that rubs me the wrong way about these essays-- in the desire to read complementary depth into the politics of Meereen, the essay formulates the argument backwards (for instance, the conclusion of this essay is that Meereen has stuff going on here too). I do think there's a ton of intrigues going on, and the Shavepate is playing his own game. But to say that Hiz as poisoner makes no sense from this is a little dishonest, imo. Shavepate would be the more interesting choice based on what we know, but it doesn't eliminate Hiz the way it's been presented.

I already addressed this. For all we know, he could have had a plan in place had Dany ended up dead in his viewing box. The fact that the dragon came out of nowhere and distracted from this would have been something of a change in the plan, and until confronted, it seemed like the poisoning was going to go unnoticed.

This is not about the essays. This is only about who the actual poisoner is. And no, the Lethal Hiz / Shavepate cases do not make as much sense as the non lethal Shavepate case. I've stated the reasons already, but in short, I think the Lethal Hiz case in particular leaves too much to chance.

[Iona]

Or being given an antidote beforehands.

Doh, of course. So like me not to think of a pre-emptive move - much safer your way... :D

[RK Rajagopal]

You can't deny that Hiz did start to replace Dany's people - he had his own bodyguards (the pitfighthers), Missandei is described being a lonely ghost haunting the pyramid, and in the end he let's Selmy know he is not needed.

Umm no. He doesn't arrest Selmy, nor does he provide himself adequate protection against his coup. It was as if he simply did not expect it. I don't have the exact quotes, but I believe he was surprised and unsuspecting when Selmy came to depose him.

[Iona]

Umm no. He doesn't arrest Selmy, nor does he provide himself adequate protection against his coup. It was as if he simply did not expect it. I don't have the exact quotes, but I believe he was surprised and unsuspecting when Selmy came to depose him.

Surely arresting Selmy and taking other aggressive measures against Dany's people after her death would be like wearing a huge neon sign on your tokar saying "I did it!"

But, it's really not all that relevant, since the poisoning plan didn't go through as it was meant (whatever way that might have been), and the situation after the pit incident is something tha no-one expected.

[RK Rajagopal]

That would also depend if they have the time to act on it at all, though.

Or being given an antidote beforehands.

Let's say x people including Hizdar eat the Locusts, and everyone but him fall sick. Doesn't that make him a suspect? So If someone is poisoned, I think that it will most likely be pinned on him by Dany loyalists, even if he does take a nibble. He is even more of a suspect if he doesn't take a nibble.

[RK Rajagopal]

Surely arresting Selmy and taking other aggressive measures against Dany's people after her death would be like wearing a huge neon sign on your tokar saying "I did it!"

But, it's really not all that relevant, since the poisoning plan didn't go through as it was meant (whatever way that might have been), and the situation after the pit incident is something tha no-one expected.

I argue that that's what it looks like in any case. But even if he doesn't arrest Selmy, he could have at least taken adequate protection to prevent a coup.

[butterbumps!]

This is not about the essays. This is only about who the actual poisoner is. And no, the Lethal Hiz / Shavepate cases do not make as much sense as the non lethal Sgavepate case. I've stated the reasons already, but in short, I think the Lethal Hiz case especially leave too much to chance.

But in Hiz's society, nobles do not share their food with their servants. Unless he was really observant of Dany, he wouldn't have expected her to be sharing these things with her body guard. I don't think Hiz is exactly very attuned with the behaviors of those around him.

And yea, it's about the essays because you based the entire thread on evidence from the essays.

I hope I'm properly communicating that I do think the Shavepate looks good for it. But since you used the essays as your basis, I am criticizing the way that argument was made, because I think it relies on false negations and circular logic.

You're wanting to eliminate Hiz based on the idea that it would be too risky in that someone else might consume the poison and expose him. But this is not a strong argument in that it doesn't account for the fact he wouldn't be accustomed to a noble sharing food with her subjects, nor the idea that there's probably someone behind him pulling strings. It would be like me trying to eliminate the Shavepate on the grounds that he wouldn't be allowed to access Hiz's private stash of food.

My assessment of this is that there's probably someone behind Hiz using him as a patsy. There are a number of parties who have motive to eliminate Hiz, Dany or both to some other purpose.

[RK Rajagopal]

But in Hiz's society, nobles do not share their food with their servants. Unless he was really observant of Dany, he wouldn't have expected her to be sharing these things with her body guard. I don't think Hiz is exactly very attuned with the behaviors of those around him.

Can you justify the above lines? Especially the last one.

[RK Rajagopal]

I hope I'm properly communicating that I do think the Shavepate looks good for it. But since you used the essays as your basis, I am criticizing the way that argument was made, because I think it relies on false negations and circular logic.

I thought I spelled out the part where the misunderstanding was. The essay might have used circular logic, but what I said above wasn't circular. I presented 4 cases, and chose one which in my opinion is the best fit.

I also concede that the essay is too quick to say that "It is not in Hiz's best interest to poison Dany"

[butterbumps!]

Can you justify the above lines? Especially the last one.

Have you ever seen a Ghiscari noble break bread with their servants? Has Dany sat down with her handmaidens and eaten with her during one of her dinner sessions with the Green Grace or Hiz? Does Hiz know she's friends with her body guards and shares her table with them? She usually does these things when she is not with other nobles. He doesn't seem aware of the relationship she has with her servants because the idea of friendship along those lines is somewhat foreign in this region.

And, btw, if that poison was intended for Dany, it was inherently hamfisted and idiotic (i.e. not the work of a mastermind). Dany doesn't eat things like that. To poison Dany, anyone who isn't completely blind would have poisoned the figs and olives-- she's been "nibbling" on them prodigiously for 3 books. Which speaks to a poisoner who isn't tremendously brilliant, a complete feint to frame someone, or a different target than Dany. ETA-- I just mean that even this is very open-ended even in terms of targeting the victim.

I thought I spelled out the part where the misunderstanding was. The essay might have used circular logic, but what I said above wasn't circular. I presented 4 cases, and chose one which in my opinion is the best fit.

I also concede that the essay is too quick to say that "It is not in Hiz's best interest to poison Dany"

Oh sure, sorry-- yes, from that post forward I am much more in agreement with you.

[Iona]

Can you justify the above lines? Especially the last one.

I think that butterbumps! brings up a good point here. One could argue that the nobles who have lived their whole lives surrounded by slave servants don't pay too much mind to what the servants do, since they are expected to behave in a certain way. They are more like furniture in the sense that they perform their tasks and do not move around without the owner telling them to.

Dany's people behave differently. I don't think Hiz has seen much interaction between Dany and her handmaids and protectors, he's mainly been seeing her in official meetings.

ETA: And butterbumps! also types faster than I do!

[RK Rajagopal]

Oh sure, sorry-- yes, from that post forward I am much more in agreement with you.

Glad to hear that.