Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Señor de la Tormenta

Dont you think getting Bob drunk when hunting is a really weak plan?

50 posts in this topic

Seriously, Ned knows, he is going to tell it to the King, theres almost no time and Cerseis big move is to make him drunk (badly) when hunting so he has an accident?

What if Bob didnt miss the shot or had a non lethal wound? Or just couldnt find the beast? or pass out before?. Was there a back up plan? It seams like there was one, because Cersei did no attempt to leave the city, but time was short and he was guarded by Selmy and Renly...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was guarded, but Pycelle is present and trusted. He was probably told to make sure Robert died.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole "Get Bob drunk plan" was hatched before Ned revealed that he had figured something out to Cersei. Assuming that provoking him to fight in the melee was also a plan, I think what matters more to Cersei is that Bob's death appears accidental. Granted, they're likely trying to off him as quickly as possible, but avoiding culpability is important.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Robert getting killed by the boar was one of many plans. Varys or Cersei (or both) mention this, I think.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do feel there might have been something else going on there which we haven't been told about. I doubt Robert was the kind of man who ever hunted sober so drugging the wine wouldn't have made that much difference to his normal state.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of course it was a weak, no, an idiotic plan!



That's Cersei for you. She is literally incapable of acknowledging the possibility that one of her plans could do anything but succeed. This characteristic of her repeats itself countless times through the entire series and is a feature of Jaime, Tyrion and Tywin as well (to a lesser extent).






Robert getting killed by the boar was one of many plans. Varys or Cersei (or both) mention this, I think.




Varys does imply that - when he tries to manipulate Ned. But no Lannister ever thinks about it, nor would it be likely. I wouldn't trust Varys' implications, he lied about a thousand times too often.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of course it was a weak, no, an idiotic plan!

That's Cersei for you. She is literally incapable of acknowledging the possibility that one of her plans could do anything but succeed.

<snip>

:agree:

Cersei's MO is to prey on Big Bad Bobby Baratheon's weaknesses: his pride to try to get him into the melee, and his fondness for wine for the hunting trip. She can't really doesn't consider anything beyond that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like to think that the majority of their marriage was basically a Wile E. Coyote skit, with Cersei as Wile E. coming up with increasingly convoluted plots to off her oblivious husband (Robert Baratheon as the Roadrunner). The strongwine for example came in a large industrial size jar from Acmetm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that Robert had many issues PTSD and depression. So I think that he didn't cared what would happen to him.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, the point was "if it wasn't one thing, it'll be another". Things that have a chance of killing Robert in a way that looks accidental - eventually ONE of them is going to come off. Whereas a dagger in the back could not be anything other than murder which would implicate somebody, and make it too easy to pin on the Lannisters.

Of course, the fact that any such plan has to look accidental would give Robert a chance of surviving it.

But, say, supposing you set up things that have a 10-20% chance of working while looking accidental. How many of those do you have to do before the balance of probability is that *at least one of them* works? Maybe half a dozen. Maybe a dozen. If Robert turns out to be sober enough to kill the beast, it'll be a riding accident, falling off his horse. If he manages to stay on his horse, somebody could "accidentally" collide with him and give him a push - of course any single attempt, having to look accidental, might not succeed, but with enough chances, something will. Or perhaps he could be ambushed by "Targaryen sympathisers" in "revenge" for the number of times he's alleged to have already tried to have Viserys assassinated...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, the point was "if it wasn't one thing, it'll be another". Things that have a chance of killing Robert in a way that looks accidental - eventually ONE of them is going to come off. Whereas a dagger in the back could not be anything other than murder which would implicate somebody, and make it too easy to pin on the Lannisters.

Of course, the fact that any such plan has to look accidental would give Robert a chance of surviving it.

But, say, supposing you set up things that have a 10-20% chance of working while looking accidental. How many of those do you have to do before the balance of probability is that *at least one of them* works? Maybe half a dozen. Maybe a dozen. If Robert turns out to be sober enough to kill the beast, it'll be a riding accident, falling off his horse. If he manages to stay on his horse, somebody could "accidentally" collide with him and give him a push - of course any single attempt, having to look accidental, might not succeed, but with enough chances, something will. Or perhaps he could be ambushed by "Targaryen sympathisers" in "revenge" for the number of times he's alleged to have already tried to have Viserys assassinated...

A very sensible way to assassinate somebody - unless you can already count the hours till you meet the headsman and need him to die now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Her plan all along was to nag him to death. Not fast it in the end a sure thing.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Cersie probably took credit for Robert's death but we see from her ideas about assassinating Jon Snow and bringing down Marg that she isn't really organised enough to pull it off. I think it's a similar situation to Jon Arryn's death. Everyone assumes Cersie's done it when actually someone else, a bit smarter, got it done while she was sitting around gloating about how her cunning plan was.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Varys does imply that - when he tries to manipulate Ned. But no Lannister ever thinks about it, nor would it be likely. I wouldn't trust Varys' implications, he lied about a thousand times too often.

Cersei and Lancel discuss her plans quite often. I'm going to take Varys' word for the truth on this. He doesn't lie as much as people think he does.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that Robert had many issues PTSD and depression. So I think that he didn't cared what would happen to him.

Why? He isn't the happiest guy but I do think he'd care about his wife murdering him to cover up her incest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why? He isn't the happiest guy but I do think he'd care about his wife murdering him to cover up her incest.

What I say is that he never cared to take care of himself. He knew the consequences of his actions but he didn't cared.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cersei and Lancel discuss her plans quite often. I'm going to take Varys' word for the truth on this. He doesn't lie as much as people think he does.

Varys is oddly unspecific though. He always lies like that, blanket statements that could mean anything and their mother, but the people he tells interpret them according to the circumstances - and err.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Varys does imply that - when he tries to manipulate Ned. But no Lannister ever thinks about it, nor would it be likely. I wouldn't trust Varys' implications, he lied about a thousand times too often.

How does persuading Ned his mercy is a mistake help Varys? If Ned feels the fact he told Cersei doomed the king why will he be more likely to confess to treason to save Sansa (assuming this is what Varys wants)? I'm not sure how this manipulation was supposed to work.

There doesn't seem any obvious reason for Varys to lie here. Moreover, the 'lie' frames a very important issue in the story; Ned's mercy. It seems weird GrrM made something of a theme out of this, and then misrepresented the consequences of Ned's mercy by having Varys tell a needless lie. What purpose does this serve?

edit: unless Varys is just being nasty for the sake of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How does persuading Ned his mercy is a mistake help Varys? If Ned feels the fact he told Cersei doomed the king why will he be more likely to confess to treason to save Sansa (assuming this is what Varys wants)? I'm not sure how this manipulation was supposed to work.

There doesn't seem any obvious reason for Varys to lie here. Moreover, the 'lie' frames a very important issue in the story; Ned's mercy. It seems weird GrrM made something of a theme out of this, and then misrepresented the consequences of Ned's mercy by having Varys tell a needless lie. What purpose does this serve?

edit: unless Varys is just being nasty for the sake of it.

The lie presents the Lannisters more powerful than they truly are. If Ned knew how tenous Cersei's hold truly was, he may have waited for other options instead of confessing. The confession weakened Robb and Stannis, at the time the two greatest threats to the Lannister regime and thus prolonged the war.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.