Dont you think getting Bob drunk when hunting is a really weak plan?

[Chaircat Meow]

The lie presents the Lannisters more powerful than they truly are. If Ned knew how tenous Cersei's hold truly was, he may have waited for other options instead of confessing. The confession weakened Robb and Stannis, at the time the two greatest threats to the Lannister regime and thus prolonged the war.

The thing is, it really doesn't. It shows Cersei had more than one agent in Robert's immediate entourage, who could arrange a plan b in case Lancel's failed, and not much else. I fail to see how this makes Ned more likely to withhold a confession.

[winters-coming]

I think Cersie probably took credit for Robert's death but we see from her ideas about assassinating Jon Snow and bringing down Marg that she isn't really organised enough to pull it off. I think it's a similar situation to Jon Arryn's death. Everyone assumes Cersie's done it when actually someone else, a bit smarter, got it done while she was sitting around gloating about how her cunning plan was.

I think you're absolutely right. Cersie would have had john arryn fall down some stairs, or something similar. She isn't capable of a well thought out plan

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The thing is, it really doesn't. It shows Cersei had more than one agent in Robert's immediate entourage, who could arrange a plan b in case Lancel's failed, and not much else. I fail to see how this makes Ned more likely to withhold a confession.

It shows that Cersei had enough agents and backup to kill Robert on short notice, no matter what. This implies that pretty much the entire court was wearing Lannister crimson under whatever arms they displayed.

And since the inhabitants of the court are the nobles in command of the armies, Ned had to assume that the Lannisters enjoyed far greater support (and Robb and Stannis less) than they had. He may have waited for the first battle to be fought otherwise.

[jet199]

How does persuading Ned his mercy is a mistake help Varys? If Ned feels the fact he told Cersei doomed the king why will he be more likely to confess to treason to save Sansa (assuming this is what Varys wants)? I'm not sure how this manipulation was supposed to work.

There doesn't seem any obvious reason for Varys to lie here. Moreover, the 'lie' frames a very important issue in the story; Ned's mercy. It seems weird GrrM made something of a theme out of this, and then misrepresented the consequences of Ned's mercy by having Varys tell a needless lie. What purpose does this serve?

edit: unless Varys is just being nasty for the sake of it.

Well the most obvious reason for Varys to lie is if he was involved in Robert's death himself or is protecting the person who was. Cersei is the easiest person to pin the blame on, she set herself up.

[Fire Eater]

Of course it was a weak, no, an idiotic plan!

That's Cersei for you. She is literally incapable of acknowledging the possibility that one of her plans could do anything but succeed.

Exactly, Cersei hinged the lives of herself, her children and likely, Jaime, on such a plan. She got lucky that time, and now thinks it is proof of her brilliance.

[Victor227]

Cersei didn't hinge anything on it. When Ned confronted her, Robert was already off and away on his ultimately fatal hunting trip. She didn't know that the die would be cast by Ned. It was just another one of those 'accidental death' plans that just happened to be ongoing at the time that it became -really- vital that Robert die.

There was excellent luck that it worked, and of course, bad luck in that previous attempts failed. But right! It happened when it needed to happen. She might have had word sent to Lancel to pick up the pace and go with the really strong stuff, but there was really rather little she could do at that point. - Well, without resorting to Robert meeting a different 'accident' at the hands of a bunch of crossbowmen waiting for him in the Kingswood, and even that would have to be a very rushed job. Lots of room for failure, and worse, it being revealed.

[BitsOfBrains]

We get a rundown of Cerseis plan Bs during Varys "abattoir of the gods" speech he gives Ned.

I think one was a stray arrow, which sounded pretty certain but pretty idiotic for whomever had to shoot him.

Keep in mind all she had to do was find a way to get him injured a little. Pycelle would have finished him off.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

We get a rundown of Cerseis plan Bs during Varys "abattoir of the gods" speech he gives Ned.

I think one was a stray arrow, which sounded pretty certain but pretty idiotic for whomever had to shoot him.

Keep in mind all she had to do was find a way to get him injured a little. Pycelle would have finished him off.

Oh so specific plan Bs. So very, very specific. Varys even supplied names.

Honestly, if Varys is unspecific like that, he lies. Or rather, he states something that's strictly true, but in the context leads the listeners to wrong conclusions.

[Ramsay B.]

It is one of the weaker moments in the books IMO. Sure, Cersei got lucky and, supposively, there were other plans but it was pretty ridiculous.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

It is one of the weaker moments in the books IMO. Sure, Cersei got lucky and, supposively, there were other plans but it was pretty ridiculous.

It is a weak plan and yet it worked and there is virtually no connection to Cersei. In that sense, it was well played (hard to imagine Cersei thought of it!). For a plan like that to work without being able to point a finger of culpability, it would need to be a long term plan. Reminds me of the plan used to kill the emperor in one of the Dune books: add small, untraceable amounts of poison to his favorite drink. Slow but effective.

[Sansa_Stark]

I think Varys was trying to make Cersei more sympathetic.

Its why he says he believes that Cersei cared more about The Joff than herself.

If Cersei is presented as a risk taker, gambling the lives of her children then it would seem less sympathetic to Eddard.

If Cersei is presented as intelligent and had a sure(or close enough) way of taking out Robert, than it would seem less like a gamble to Eddard and might make him more sympathetic.

[jet199]

We get a rundown of Cerseis plan Bs during Varys "abattoir of the gods" speech he gives Ned.

I think one was a stray arrow, which sounded pretty certain but pretty idiotic for whomever had to shoot him.

Keep in mind all she had to do was find a way to get him injured a little. Pycelle would have finished him off.

I had a look back at this speech and it seems Varys is trying to make Ned feel guilty and stupid rather than give a list of Cersei's plots.

“Ah,” said Varys. “To be sure. You are an honest and honorable man, Lord Eddard. Ofttimes I forget that. I have met so few of them in my life.” He glanced around the cell.

“When I see what honesty and honor have won you, I understand why.”

Ned Stark laid his head back against the damp stone wall and closed his eyes. His leg was throbbing. “The king’s wine . . . did you question Lancel?”

“Oh, indeed. Cersei gave him the wineskins, and told him it was Robert’s favorite vintage.” The eunuch shrugged. “A hunter lives a perilous life. If the boar had not done for Robert, it would have been a fall from a horse, the bite of a wood adder, an arrow gone astray . . . the forest is the abattoir of the gods. It was not wine that killed the king. It was your mercy.”

These are thing Vary's is plucking out of his own imagination not Cersei's plots. He never says Cercei was planning these these things only that they are vague possibilities. It is also quite obvious that he didn't question Lancel and isn't concerned about finding out who killed Robert at all. He is just confirming what Ned thinks is true so he can convince Ned that he has some blame in Robert's death. If Ned is stupid enough to have caused his friend's death then he is going to need someone smart, such as Vary's, to tell him what he needs to do next rather than trusting his own instincts (which would probably have got him to the wall as he would have had a trial which would have meant Tywin would have had time to get involved and trade his life for Jaime's). I definitely think it was either a complete accident or someone else, such as Varys, had a smarter plan going on and has gotten away with it because Cersei is so easy to pin it on and would be happy to take credit for it.

[SeanF]

Cersei did try to manipulate Robert into taking part in the Melee, at the Hand's Tournament, so in all likelihood, this was the last of several attempts to kill Robert by means that looked accidental.

I'd say it had a moderate chance of success. For example, if you know someone was a habitual drink-driver, and you ply them with alcohol that is stronger than usual, there's a fair chance they'll have an accident; or if they're a habitual cocaine-user, and you mix ricin in with their supply.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Cersei did try to manipulate Robert into taking part in the Melee, at the Hand's Tournament, so in all likelihood, this was the last of several attempts to kill Robert by means that looked accidental.

I'd say it had a moderate chance of success. For example, if you know someone was a habitual drink-driver, and you ply them with alcohol that is stronger than usual, there's a fair chance they'll have an accident; or if they're a habitual cocaine-user, and you mix ricin in with their supply.

This works best on habitual stevia users.

[SeanF]

This works best on habitual stevia users.

"Well, goodbye Lydia" might be my three favourite words from the series.

[Fire Eater]

Cersei didn't hinge anything on it.

Yes, she did. That seemed to be the plan she was putting into action when she decided to stay rather than flee. If it failed Robert would come home and have her head along with Joffrey's, and who says what will happen to Tommen and Myrcella.

[Fae Boleyn]

I'm in agreement with the idea that she's been trying to off Robert through various 'accidents' for years, and the hunting trip was just the latest one. I doubt she was counting on it, even when Ned confronted her. I think after Ned confronted her she had a backup plan we never hear about because the hunting trip scheme worked. Though the backup plan likely had more to do with silencing Ned somehow than it did with Robert. He was already ill with his leg, and Pycelle was treating him... Easy to claim it got infected and killed him, isn't it?

Once Ned can't tell Robert the truth, she has more time for Robert to have an 'accident'. Maybe one of the women he slept with would be a planted assassin, if she really got tired of waiting.

[Feliciano69]

A weak plan is precisely what I would expect of Cersei Lannister.

[The Mother of The Others]

Yes! Their assassination plot left a lot to be desired.

It was half assed like one of Nick Miller's plans on New Girl.

It reminds me of the kind of planning you see in a porno when one beach volleyball team schemes to dethrone the reigning beach volleyball duo by messing with their equipment manager while someone steals the other team's mascot.

Basically a very unreliable attempt on the king's life, the kind of haphazard effort you'd expect from a Real Housewife of Lannister County.

They must have been counting on Robert to play the starring role in his assassination by refusing to sit it out even after he realized he was massively intoxicated. His drunkard's pride wouldn't allow him to admit he'd overdosed and wasn't fit to be handling heavy machinery just then. So they let Rob go out and juggle chainsaws until something went wrong. I guess it's a "great" plan for killing him..... if you had all the time in the world! But Cercei didn't; she was on a tight time schedule and needed Robert dead on this first try. That's why this plan was a silly, unreliable one to trust to in that situation. Her gamble just lucked out and she got that royal flush.

[im317]

I like to think that the majority of their marriage was basically a Wile E. Coyote skit, with Cersei as Wile E. coming up with increasingly convoluted plots to off her oblivious husband (Robert Baratheon as the Roadrunner). The strongwine for example came in a large industrial size jar from Acme^tm.

:rofl: :bowdown: i may have to borrow this