Summerhall: a case of murder, not magic

[Dragon Roast]

The Tragedy at Summerhall is understood as a case of magic/sorcery gone wrong. That is how it is remembered in Westeros. The few details we have about the event in the books are filtered by characters who take the involvement of magic as a given. And why not. The singers and Maesters have been telling stories of Targaryens doing extreme things to hatch new dragons ever since the last dragon died and so why wouldn't Aegon V be responsible for another failed attempt that caused his doom.

Then you fold in the well-known Targaryen fascination with prophecy –especially TPTWP/AA prophecy—and it is easy to believe the assumption that a sorcery-gone-wrong-dragon-hatching fire at Summerhall got out of hand and killed everybody. How could Egg be so stupid?

There has been much and more speculation about Summerhall among readers and fans and most of it takes as a given that prophecy and magic are central to the event. The only mystery is how magic got out of control and why Aegon V, Ser Duncan the Tall, and Prince Duncan the Small thought they had to take the risk.

And yet, what if this common belief is wrong—what if magic had nothing to do with the tragedy. What if the Tragedy at Summerhall was only another power play in the ongoing Game of Thrones.

When ASoIaF opens, magic is almost gone from Westeros and has been gone for so long that dragons, direwolves, the Others, snarks and grumpkins are myths. None of them have been real for centuries. This includes the days of Aegon V—the days of Dunk and Egg. Back in the day, when there were dragons in dreams or prophecies they always meant Targaryens and not actual dragons. In the Dunk and Egg tales, magic in the world is not a factor. Folks may still believe in the supernatural, but the real story was one of politics, power and the game of thrones.

Which brings us to Summerhall: let’s set aside the popular wish that magic was the cause for just a moment. Let’s assume for a moment that the players of the GoT in 259AL are not that different in their motivations from the players in ASoIaF (300AL) or those in 103AL (according to the recently released TPatQ). In every era we know about, the players are motivated by human ambition, fear and power. Magic is not a factor in the GoT. And folks will do anything when running a play for power—especially if they are desperate and ambitious.

In 259AL the desperate and ambitious were the young—especially Aerys Targaryen and his friend Tywin Lannister. And I have no doubt that the two met and were friends by 259AL. The Lannisters were friends to Dunk and Egg and when it came to arranging for his grandson’s education, sending young Aerys off to be fostered for a time at the Rock would not have been an odd move. Or perhaps they brought young Tywin to Kings Landing. Either way, it seems certain, that they knew each other long before Aerys became King and made the surprising decision to make Tywin his Hand.

I also suspect that Maester Pycelle served at the Rock before his promotion and knew both boys before 259AL.

Aerys and Tywin were both born between 240-244AL. By 259AL they were both young men filled with ambition and life was about to confine each of them to the shadows unless they made their own luck. Aegon V was a popular King and in good health. There wasn't any reason to think that his reign wouldn't last as long as Jaehaerys I—or longer. Because of some prophecy, Aegon V had forced Aerys to marry his sister and now their first son was about to be born. Worst, his grandfather had high hopes for the child. Aerys didn't have to be a genius to know that the succession would pass from his grandfather to his son and that unless something changed he was a has-been at 16. Knowing what we know about Aerys, I can’t see him meekly accepting that fate.

His friend Tywin had similar problems. Lannister power was at a low ebb. His father was weak and vassal Lords laughed at his family and his father just took the disrespect. He even married Tywin’s sister to a Frey. Worst, while Aegon V was on the throne there was nothing Tywin could do about it. He wanted to extinguish House Tarbeck and House Reyne, but King Aegon V would never accept Tywin’s idea of justice. Unless there was a different King, Tywin would never be free to do what he wanted to do to protect “the honor” of his House.

If something happened to Aegon V, the next in line would be Jaehaerys II (Aerys’ father). He was a weak man in body and spirit. If he took the crown, Aerys would be King sooner or later (and sooner if Jaehaerys died an untimely death). OTOH, if Aegon V lived, Aerys would never be King (and Tywin would never be free to punish his enemies).

By the simple rules of the GoT, Aerys and Tywin had every reason to want Aegon V dead. They had motive up the wazzoo. They also had means and opportunity.

In “The Mystery Knight” Daemon II Blackfyre dreams that a dragon will hatch and it turns out that the dragon is Egg becoming Aegon. So it is with Targaryen dreams about dragons. We are told that Aegon V and the Duncans were at Summerhall to “hatch a dragon”. Most read this literally as if they were going to hatch a dragon from an egg like Dany. This seems an odd belief based on the Dunk and Egg stories—these stories would suggest that they gathered in Summerhall to be at the birth (or hatching) of Rhaegar. He was the Targaryen that Aegon V expected to be TPTWP. The move to fulfill the prophecy required Rhaegar—the dragon—to be born. Real dragons (while a nice add-on) were not necessary to the moment. There was no reason for Aegon V to burn the joint down trying to hatch a real dragon from a real egg. That most likely seems way out of character, because it is.

But Aerys and Tywin had a reason to kill Aegon, his son and his Commander of the Kingsguard. All three had to go if Aerys was ever to have a chance to become King.

It is said that Rhaegar Targaryen was born at Summerhall while the fires raged. Knowing what we do about castles in Westeros that seems possible. As the summer palace of the Targaryens, it was likely made up of a number of buildings. One structure could burn, while a child was born in another. Rhaegar’s father, Aerys would have been at Summerhall. Grand Maester Pycelle would have been there as well. The family would have felt secure there. So secure that as far as we know; only Duncan the Tall was there from the Kingsguard.

It would have been relatively easy for a family member to murder somebody and cover their tracks. Poison is discussed often in the books and that would have been the easiest way to kill Egg, Dunk and Duncan (and in Pycelle, Aerys had a master poisoner at his disposal). Once they were dead, a cover-up was needed. In Westeros (and in our medieval society) sorcery has always been a perfect cover for the deeds of men. Once the King and his closest comrades were dead, it was only a matter of setting off pre-positioned supplies of wildfire to destroy the evidence and to blame the tragedy on sorcery gone wrong (and Aerys would have known all about wildfire from the stories about his uncle, Aerion Brightflame).

Within a year of Summerhall, Tywin was free to pursue genocide and extinguish House Tarbeck and House Reyne. Within three years, Jaehaerys II was dead and his son became King Aerys II.

Without the overlay of magic, the Tragedy at Summerhall makes perfect sense as political murder played as a winning move in the Game of Thrones. The myth of magic is a great way to cover-up the crime. The relation between Tywin and Aerys makes more sense when you consider them bound together by a dark secret. It gives a depth to everything from the rejection of Cersie for Rhaegar’s bride to Duskendale to the hire of Varys to the Tourney at Harrenhal to the Sack of King's Landing.

Perhaps this speculation is wrong and magic was at the core of the Tragedy at Summerhall, but I doubt it. AsoIaF is ultimately a story about people and the choices that they make when confronted with conflicts to their heart. If Summerhall was about magic, then this central mystery to the books wasn't about the human heart. OTOH, if it was a political murder then I think that would make the narrative more interesting and layered. Murder in place of magic would be more subversive and in sync with the plot twists that we know about.

Cheers

[kissdbyfire]

I've often wondered about this after reading this in ADwD...

“Jon’s temper flashed. “They have followed worse. The Old Bear left a few cautionary notes about certain of the men, for his successor. We have a cook at the Shadow Tower who was fond of raping septas. He burned a seven-pointed star into his flesh for every one he claimed. His left arm is stars from wrist to elbow, and stars mark his calves as well. At Eastwatch we have a man who set his father’s house afire and barred the door. His entire family burned to death, all nine. Whatever Satin may have done in Oldtown, he is our brother now, and he will be my squire.”

[Raven in Winter]

Very interesting read OP. It sounds very plausible.

I've often wondered about this after reading this in ADwD...

Jons temper flashed. They have followed worse. The Old Bear left a few cautionary notes about certain of the men, for his successor. We have a cook at the Shadow Tower who was fond of raping septas. He burned a seven-pointed star into his flesh for every one he claimed. His left arm is stars from wrist to elbow, and stars mark his calves as well. At Eastwatch we have a man who set his fathers house afire and barred the door. His entire family burned to death, all nine. Whatever Satin may have done in Oldtown, he is our brother now, and he will be my squire.

Who would that man be at Eastwatch?

[Sevumar]

I think that a conspiracy as intricate as this would require a bit more groundwork in the text to be true. We'd need to know more of Aerys's character and his relationship with Tywin in order to consider this kind of plot. Instead, we see almost nothing that would point to this.

The reason why magic is suspected to play a role in Summerhall is precisely because it is so unusual as to be scandalous. If it was nothing but a mundane power play on the part of a son of a second son, we'd be directed toward that conclusion, at least subtly in by the speculations of characters in the book. Instead, it is the unusual nature of what happened at Summerhall that points to magic.

[Alta1r]

Great theory, I am a fan. It's certainly plausible and it definitely adds more depth to the Tywin-Aerys relationship. However, I don't see the need to involve Tywin with any of this from Aerys' point of view. It seems like something Aerys could have just done himself. Unless he needed some of Casterly Rock's gold to move things along without raising suspicions by taking money out of the royal KL treasury "for reasons."

[Dagon]

*Exaggerated male British voice* MUuUrDER!?

[Matoro]

Woah. Awesome theory.

[Fat Mac]

Well, this seems to be based on a lot of speculation with little textual basis. But nevertheless, I like the theory. It makes it seem a lot cooler than just another ill fated attempt to hatch a dragon.

[Balaurderaa]

I thought that the 'Hatching a Dragon' referred to Rhaegar and the idea that Aery was behind Summerhall occurred to me before but I couldn't get past the fact that Aerys is a coward who wouldn't do that...Until you mentioned that he and Tywin could have been friends from a young age-I think Tywin wouldn't have found it hard to manipulate Aerys into doing this...

[lareine]

Well thought out, really excellent!

[lareine]

I thought that the 'Hatching a Dragon' referred to Rhaegar and the idea that Aery was behind Summerhall occurred to me before but I couldn't get past the fact that Aerys is a coward who wouldn't do that...Until you mentioned that he and Tywin could have been friends from a young age-I think Tywin wouldn't have found it hard to manipulate Aerys into doing this...

There is support in the text for that. It's in Tyrion's chapter in ADWD when he first arrives in Pentos and Illyrio is telling him about how Varys spymaster skills first came to the Mad King's attention:

whilst whispers of a certain eunuch’s talents crossed the narrow sea and reached the ears of a certain king. A very anxious king, who did not wholly trust his son, nor his wife, nor his Hand, a friend of his youth who had grown arrogant and overproud. I do believe that you know the rest of this tale, is that not so?

[Ygrain]

An interesting theory, and I agree, to an extent. I've found this quote from Barristan very intriguing:

The Prince of Dragonflies loved Jenny of Oldstones so much he cast aside a crown, and Westeros paid the bride price in corpses. All three of the sons of the fifth Aegon had wed for love, in defiance of their father’s wishes. And because that unlikely monarch had himself followed his heart when he chose his queen, he allowed his sons to have their way, making bitter enemies where he might have had fast friends. Treason and turmoil followed, as night follows day, ending at Summerhall in sorcery, fire, and grief.

It seems as if the Summerhall tragedy was somehow related to Prince Duncan's choice of bride and the treason was from someone who felt slighted. This doesn't rule out Aerys, of course - everyone else was entitled to marry for love but he couldn't, so the treason might well have been on his part - however, would Barristan know? Or, was the treason truly that of Aerys but Barristan makes a msitake in assigning blame?

I sure hope we will find out what happened at Summerhall; has GRRM said anything regarding that?

[Mithras]

I hope you are aware of the fact that Aerys was Egg's grandson and it was Jaehaerys II who commanded his son Aerys to marry Rhaella.

[di229]

I hope you are aware of the fact that Aerys was Egg's grandson and it was Jaehaerys II who commanded his son Aerys to marry Rhaella.

Sorry but I think it was Egg ordering his grandson Aerys to marry Rhaella while he was king because of what GoHH said to him...

(I have a terrible feeling I'm wrong here... :))

[Dragonstoned]

More a theory that I hope is true rather than think is true, but I really do hope it is true for the aforementioned depth it gives.

[Lasicka]

Sorry but I think it was Egg ordering his grandson Aerys to marry Rhaella while he was king because of what GoHH said to him...

(I have a terrible feeling I'm wrong here... :))

If you look at wiki at Aerys´ page it says it was Egg.

If you look at Jaehaerys´ page it says it was Jaehaerys.

If you look at Egg´s page it says nothing.

Edit: forgot Rhaella - at her page it says Jaehaerys...

But I remember Barristan telling Dany about her parent´s marriage and saying it was HER grandfather who ordered it, which means Jaehaerys =)

[Ygrain]

If you look at wiki at Aerys´ page it says it was Egg.

If you look at Jaehaerys´ page it says it was Jaehaerys.

If you look at Egg´s page it says nothing.

Edit: forgot Rhaella - at her page it says Jaehaerys...

But I remember Barristan telling Dany about her parent´s marriage and saying it was HER grandfather who ordered it, which means Jaehaerys =)

Actually, he says grandsire, which is archaic for grandfather. However, the dictionary tells me that it is also a general term for a male ancestor :dunno:

[Lasicka]

Actually, he says grandsire, which is archaic for grandfather. However, the dictionary tells me that it is also a general term for a male ancestor :dunno:

Oops, my bad, I´ve never read the original, only the translation... :leaving:

[Ygrain]

Oops, my bad, I´ve never read the original, only the translation... :leaving:

Not your fault, the Czech translation sucks.

[Iona]

Someone else suggested this in another thread some time ago, but without Tywin's involvement. Aerys' forced marriage where everyone else was free to follow their hearts was mentioned. We know his and Rhaella's marriage was not happy at all.

I threw in some wildfire to the flames by adding that if the theory holds water, then it's really creepy that it seems Aerys only paid visits to Rhaella's bedchambers after he had burned someone. Could it be that burning stuff made him remember the time he took revenge on the people that made him marry his sister and was the only time he could get an erection, making it possible for him to punish Rhaella for everything that happened by sexually abusing her?