If The Red Wedding Did Not Happen Would That Have Been CheckMate and An End To The Lannister Rule?

[Roddy the Ruin]

No, Robb could have reclaimed the North but I doubt he would have the strength to hold the Riverlands without the Vale on his side. Even with Trywin's and Joffrey's deaths the Lannisters would still have Kevan and Devan two competent leaders. Unless he somehow got the Cale on his side the Riverlands would have been lost and his Uncle Edmure would likely be staying with him in Winterfell, or fallen on the battlefield, or been taken prisoner.

[Roose The Weddingcrasher]

Not really, at most they might be able to better handle the winter then some Southerners but there is nothing that demonstrates them as being tougher. Especially, it must be notable about how almost all of the top warriors (D.Blackfyre, Aemon the DK, A. Dayne, B. Selmy, R. Baratheon, J. Lannister, S. Clegane, etc) are all Southerners.

That's because the south is the place for shining and less shining knights to win fame and glory.

[UnFit Finlay]

The crown would have more troops than the separatists, but they wouldn't be able to effectively use them all at once.

The Westerlands were defenseless iirc. Edmure could have mustered an army strong enough to take Lannisport and siege the Rock, I think.

The southern Riverlands could be lost, but the invaders could have been beaten in a Battle of the Fords 2.0, I think. I don't think the Riverlords would be caught unaware a second time, and they would have the obvious advantages of fighting on their own terrain and having men at arms with stronger motivations (defending own land + following their lords vs only following their lords).

Also, I don't think how motivated the Tyrells would be once their land was under attack by the Ironborn.

So, all in all, I am sure that Robb's cause was far from lost.

The Westerlands weren't defenseless. Stafford Lannister's army had been beaten but it was being reformed by Daven, a much more competent commander. Any invading army would also have to get past the Golden Tooth, since the Lannisters would have to be deeply stupid to get caught out by the mountain trail again. Aside from that, with Stannis defeated and Robb heading North, the Riverlords would have enough trouble defending their own lands against the Lannisters and Tyrells without invading anywhere else.

The question is if the RW didn't happen, does Roose stay loyal?

No. Roose had already chosen his side before the Wedding. If Robb made back North then all it would take is one conversation with Robett Glover about Duskendale and Roose's head would be off for treason. Ramsay would be a dead man as well, meaning no more House Bolton. Realistically, Roose really had no choice to do what he did, especially after Robett was released.

[Ramsay Gimp]

The walls were closing in on the Lannisters? What gave you that impression? They were in practically no danger at all by that point

No, they were closing in on Robb. He had enemies to the North and the South, and had lost his heirs, his home castle, and the support of important bannermen.

[Harle The Handsome]

If the RW didn't happen it wouldn't so much be checkmate for the Lannisters, but stalemate. The Wolf's men would have reorganized to protect Riverrun and the surrounding countryside, while Moat Cailin was recaptured from the Ironmen. The North never would have been able to make another heavy offensive incursion into the Westerland or the Crownlands. since they would be forced to defend their western shores from the Ironmen.

The North also would have been the ones forced to deal with the wildlings at the Wall. They would also be the ones defending the realm from the White Walkers. It seems highly likely that once The North and the Riverlands solidified their independence, Dorne would be the next kingdom to break away. The Seven Kingdoms would them become three.

[complexphoenix]

Some stuff depends on how the Red Wedding doesn't happen. If the Freys wed Edmure to Roslin wihout incident and let Robb pass, than Robb goes North to fight the Ironborn, which will remove him and his Northmen from the South for a period of months and maybe more than a year. Meanwhile the Riverlords have to defend their lands against the combined strength of the West, the Reach, the Crownlands and the Stormlands. Those are pretty bad odds. I suppose that in this scenario the Purple Wedding and Tywin's death both still happen. Jaime was willing to go into the Riverlands to mop up the last pockets of resistance in AFFC, but in this scenario going into the Riverlands would clearly mean breaking his oath not to take up arms against the Starks or Tullys, and I don't think he would have been willing to do that. So the invasion of the Riverlands would have to be led by someone else - probably Kevan. There's a very good chance that Tommen's supporting alliance would have successfully conquered the Riverlands, although I believe Riverrun itself would have held out very well with the Blackfish in command. Still, even if Robb successfully retook the North and turned his gaze back to the South, trying to retake the Riverlands against the Lannister/Tyrell alliance and relieving Riverrun a second time would have been a very tall order and there's a good chance we would have failed and been killed.

If the Freys had responded to the broken marriage pact by yanking their support for Robb but not doing anything else, Robb would have been forced to take his army to the Ruby Ford to cross the Trident, which would have given the Lannister/Tyrell forces a great opportunity to strike at him and kill him in the field. If Robb could come up with some clever strategy to beat them, fine. But if he couldn't, it would be game over and a Lannister victory, just like in the regular timeline, only without the Freys losing all their honor and no Lady Stoneheart.

Robb named Jon his heir, and in this scenario probably would have been able to reach him to tell him that. Maybe Jon would have agreed to leave the Watch, but an independent North probably wouldn't be in the cards in the long term. Jon knows what a threat the Others are; he probably would have made peace with the Lannisters in the end so that Westeros could present a united front against them.

Or, after returning North Robb might have found out that Bran and Rickon were alive and might even have managed to retrieve Rickon, thus securing himself a viable heir in that way. But a four-year-old boy can't actually rule. If Robb died with Rickon as his effective heir, much would depend on who took control as regent. If it were Catelyn, she'd sue for peace. If it were the Greatjon, he'd continue the fight until the bitter end, at great and terrible cost. If it were Roose Bolton, he'd steal the crown for himself and/or sell Rickon to the Lannisters.

All in all, I'd say Robb's best chance of survival would be bending the knee to Tommen. We know he was utterly unwilling to kneel to his father's killer, but Tommen didn't kill Ned, so after the PW Robb might have been willing to be reasonable, especially if he reunited with Arya and learned from her account of the execution that Cersei hadn't wanted it to happen and that Joffrey alone was to blame. (Remember, Arya learned from Yoren that Ned was supposed to take the black.) I imagine the Lannisters would have given some fairly tough terms to agree to a peace; at minimum, they'd require hostages. They might have demanded a marriage between Arya and a Lannister (Martyn?) to guarantee the peace on a permanent basis but at least, Robb could have lived and had children with Jeyne and Westeros would be reunited in time to face the Others.

[complexphoenix]

No, Robb could have reclaimed the North but I doubt he would have the strength to hold the Riverlands without the Vale on his side. Even with Trywin's and Joffrey's deaths the Lannisters would still have Kevan and Devan two competent leaders. Unless he somehow got the Cale on his side the Riverlands would have been lost and his Uncle Edmure would likely be staying with him in Winterfell, or fallen on the battlefield, or been taken prisoner.

Littlefinger hatched his plot to make off with Sansa well before the RW, so it would be very interesting to see how he would have handled the situation if Robb had lived. Littlefinger's general pattern of false friendship and treachery is very apparent, but his true goals and motivations are still murky. If Cat is truly his heart's desire and gaining her hand in marriage is his ultimate goal, he could have bagged her easily after Lysa's death by promising to deliver the Vale for Robb if she'd marry him. But if he doesn't want Cat anymore - if he wants Sansa now, or wants to be king as some have theorized - than he'd probably go through his usual deceit-and-treachery pattern with Robb and Catelyn just as he does with everyone else.

[Twenty of House Goodmen]

I really doubt the North could withstand the combined strength of the Westerlands, Reach, and Stormlands. They would've certainly lost the Riverlands. Honestly, Robb's campaign seemed doomed without major allies, which they could've had in the Vale.

[Siddard Stark]

Well If Red-Wedding didn't happen it is safe to assume that Roose Bolton didn't betray the Starks, this means no Duskendale, and no massacre of loyal stark men at Ruby Ford, Harrion Karstark isn't taken prisoner which might change Lord Richards fate, So Robb now has additional forces. Robb would have 9000 northmen from Roose's army with leaders like Robett Glover, Harrion Karstark alive, 400 men under Helman Tallhart would join him, and his Northern cavalry of 3800 men who survived the Westerlan campagins. So in-total Robb has 13200 Northmen. Ramsay doesn't sack Winterfell--------this is assuming Roose stays loyal then Ramsay wouldn't get permission to sack winterfell. This means Rodrik Cassel, Cley Cerwyn and Leobalt Talhart are all alive with 2000 Northmen. This puts The North in a very strong position and Robb could have taken it back from the IB very quickly.

Then we know Robb left Ser Brynden Tully as the Lord of the Southern Marches which means he has the overall command of the Tully men to defend the Riverlands from the Lannister/Tyrell forces. Whatever the odds, the blackfish was Robbs right hand as far as strategy was concerned. So i have no doubt tht the Blackfish could have defended the Riverlands.

We go back North, with Roddrick Cassel alive Bran goes beyond the wall, whereas Rickon is kept hidden in winterfell by Roddrick Cassel as he doesn't want to loose Robb's heir again. Theon Greyjoy is a prisoner at Winterfell, a card to play against the IB. Robb after the Wedding gets reunited with Arya Stark and the hound pledges his sword to Robb as payment for giving back Arya Stark. Robb quickly takes back the lightly defended Moat Callin from the IB and his host of 13200 Northmen return to The North. He moves to Winterfell, finds Roddrick Cassel who gives him the good news that his brothers are alive. Winterfell falls under the command of Queen Jyene Stark, now Robb moves his forces to re-take Deepwood Motte, after that he moves to the Wall where he learns from his Brother about the real enemy beyond the Wall. So Robb could make common ground with Mance Ryder and add an additional 40k men to his army!!!

[KingofSothoryos]

No. Roose had already chosen his side before the Wedding. If Robb made back North then all it would take is one conversation with Robett Glover about Duskendale and Roose's head would be off for treason. Ramsay would be a dead man as well, meaning no more House Bolton. Realistically, Roose really had no choice to do what he did, especially after Robett was released.

I think part of my supposition is that Roose stays loyal, doesn't send the Northmen to take Duskendale, retreats to the Twins as commanded, commands Ramsey to work with the other Northerners (like in the show), so Winterfell is retaken with minimal casualties and those still in the North retake Deepwood and Torrhens Square from the Ironmen without Robb's host. Robb might have returned so there would be a Stark in Winterfell and given command of his host to Roose in the South to hold the Riverlands with the Blackfish for doing such a good job holding the Green Fork. Ninja'ed by Siddard Stark.

Littlefinger hatched his plot to make off with Sansa well before the RW, so it would be very interesting to see how he would have handled the situation if Robb had lived. Littlefinger's general pattern of false friendship and treachery is very apparent, but his true goals and motivations are still murky. If Cat is truly his heart's desire and gaining her hand in marriage is his ultimate goal, he could have bagged her easily after Lysa's death by promising to deliver the Vale for Robb if she'd marry him. But if he doesn't want Cat anymore - if he wants Sansa now, or wants to be king as some have theorized - than he'd probably go through his usual deceit-and-treachery pattern with Robb and Catelyn just as he does with everyone else.

LF would lose any control he has over the Vale if he leaves Lysa before their marriage or her death. And I doubt the Vale lords would be happy with him taking up with Lysa's sister so quickly after her untimely death and their brief marriage!

[Spear of Dorne]

Its important to remember that Robb went to the Red Wedding partly to return Walder Frey's 4,000 men to his cause as well as to repair the dishonour. Robb was on the back foot strategically and had to return north anyway.

[capo51]

Yeah, as everyone has said, the plan was to continue north and get rid of the Iroborn. And as Robb points out in the HBO series (his reason for attacking the Rock instead), he wouldn't have been able to rally his northerners again once they got settled in.

However, if he had instead gone west and went for the Lannister homeland, I still think he would be far too out-numbered to hold the Rock for very long. And when the Freys saw that he was losing the war, they'd change sides and send warnings to Tywin of Robb's moves (even if Robb had married Roslin Frey, Walder would still be too cowardly and loyal to the crown, he'd just take an easy way out, betray the Starks and win a pardon). Red Wedding or not, the Freys are simply the shittiest human beings in Westeros.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

I agree with you. Robb was on his way back north to reclaim his castle, the war was basically over. Robb wouldn't have been the winner but he exposed the Lannisters and Tywin as beatable. It wouldn't have decimated the Lannisters by any means but he surely weakened them.

The RW, despite what Tywin says, was an act of desperation. He all but admitted he wasn't able to out fight Robb in the field. He needed him gone because anybody who wasn't afraid of him and who he couldn't push around was a threat. If Robb was allowed to go back North and ignore the Iron Throne it was basically an open invitation for everybody else to do the same. The idea of Robb was much too dangerous to allow him to live. If Roose hadn't been so ambitious there wouldn't have been anything the Lannisters could do short of attempt to invade the North which wasn't going to happen. Even with Robb dead Tywins aura of invincibility was gone.

[Mourneblade]

Well if no Red Wedding then no burning of Winterfell. Roose was going to End Robb one way or another once Winterfell was sacked.