Season Taking over Books..

[Miryana]

That means that the billed actors who have been around since the first season will be re-negotiating after the sixth season, and the billed actors who came on board during the second season will be able to do so during the eight season. The Sopranos was delayed - as a previous poster mentioned - because of these negotiations. With a show like Game of Thrones, that kind of delay simply won't be possible. It shoots in several different countries, across various locations, and the various sets are all set-up in warehouses that have a rental fee associated with them. Basically, it isn't set during the modern day, and this creates a lot of problems were it to necessary to halt production. As another example, a large part of the reason Deadwood was cancelled had to do with the set itself, which had to be torn down after issues arose from actors re-negotiating their contracts - it simply wasn't economically viable to continue to pay for the lot the set had been built on.

These practical issues are often overlooked when the possibility of things like Robert's Rebellion/three seasons of AFFC+ADWD are discussed. Spartacus had a prequel season because they were hoping the lead could recover from cancer, and when his cancer returned they recast because waiting any longer would have been the end of the show: they couldn't pay the cast and crew to wait around. The prequel took place using existing sets and the same cast and crew that would be back for the next season. And that was a smaller show with a lot less location work. Imagine HBO paying Dinklage, Headey, Clarke, and the rest of GOT's massive cast and crew to sit around for a year or two; if the show didn't pay them, they'd get other jobs and the show would have to start from the beginning when it was time to continue. Stopping is not an option for GOT, and significant delays seem highly unlikely (True Blood is ending after season 7 and it's one of if not the longest running show on HBO - they can't be aiming for 10+ seasons of GOT as some of the estimates here would require). I expect some of ADWD to be in season 6, especially if the two missing battles are counted as ADWD, but it'll all be done by the end of season 6.

5x02 - [cut] The bones of Hazzea are presented to her.

5x03 - Haunted by Hazzea's death, Dany chains her dragons.

Just a short comment on this detailed outline, an actor cast as a farmer has talked about the dragons being out of control and is probably playing Hazzea's father, so that seems to be in season 4.

[WiDMNDBAMMD]

We can safely assume that this season ends with the shocking events at the end of ASOS.

HOWEVER, we can also take as fact that this season will also include event such as:

-Brienne beginning her quest to find Sansa

-Theon/Reek securing Moat Caillin

-Dany having trouble maintaining peace in Mereen (Though I have a feeling her arc this season will end with Jorah's betrayal)

-I also think Jon's arc in E4X10 will see him become Lord Commander.

The people who think that AFFC and ADWD can be stretched for two seasons don't seem to be considering the major flaw in that plan, which is to keep viewers hooked by maintaining a fast narrative pace and character progression. As much discussed on these boards, AFFC and ADWD have a far slower pace, there are practically no 'major' events akin to Blackwater or the Red Wedding. D&D have already mentioned how it is Season 5 that gives them nightmares. Judging from all of this, and from the relentless pace of storylines already in Season 4, it is safe to assume that they will want to condense the storylines of books 4 and 5 into one season, in order to maintain a huge audience and not lose people.

Based on this, here's how Season 5 might reasonably play out. Forgive me if I've omitted anything. I've chosen to leave Bran out of this, as it seems he is very likely to reach the end of his ADWD storyline by end of Season 4. If not, I feel he will have very few scenes in S5, most of them will be about his turning into the new Bloodraven, having visions. He may be brought back in S6 though.

[snip predictions]

Jon being offered Winterfell after being LC? That seems silly, also add the fact that he'll probably know that Bran and Rickon are alive and if so would never even consider the offer to begin with.

The show doing five episodes of Queen Margaery vs. Queen Cersei? That seems like a waste to even bother.

Brienne meeting LS is not an episode 9 event. One of the two battles from WoW would be. Take your pick... I'd like to see Mereen just because it streamlines Dany out of Mereen and lenghtens the amount of time for Jon as LC. I care more about the characters in the North/Wall than I do in Mereen, that's just me. Might be the fact that I can't even figure out who is who since their names all look the same. Then season 6 we get the North/Wall events of DwDs. I really don't want to see two seasons of Dany ruling Mereen.

I do agree that "most" of FFC/DwDs should be covered season 5 ( afterall they're one book right?) I don't see the point in getting through 100% of the material.

[Neumond]

Your confidence in that belief is mistaken. I'm on this forum, yet I want HBO to continue and show the ending, preferably as close to the one GRRM envisions as possible (and with GRRM continuing to write an episode each season, or even more than one once the show moves beyond the books, so his "voice" is still there). It means that the storylines of ASOIAF will get a conclusion within a few years (the show is expected to run probably for 8 seasons) and it will also stimulate discussion on book storylines, as we get new info from the show (and much discussion about how different or similar the corresponding book storylines will be).

I also don't see how the book can be "ruined" by the show ending first. I re-read books in spite of knowing the ending and having read them before. In this case, the book would no doubt show far more detail and include characters that don't even exist on the show, while parts of the ending may be different. It would still be exciting.

Given the way HBO works, and that they have bought the rights and thus can finish it the way they see fit, they will not halt production of the show to allow GRRM to catch up. He's been writing too slowly for that since ASOS was finished. From recent news, it doesn't seem that he is speeding up after the AFFC/ADWD problems. I guess that TWOW is an enormously complex book to write, with all those sprawling storylines. I also doubt 7 books will suffice, and Martin hasn't promised he will keep it at 7.

I subscribe every word of yours. I also want to see the "real" ending in the show when it will overtake the books.

I have to agree. This is really all GRRM's fault when it comes down to it. I know we all love this series so much and it pains me to say that, but it was his decision to sell the rights before the series was finished. It was his decision to spread his time amongst other things rather than finishing the series while the show caught up each year. The more I think about it, he should have either not sold the rights to HBO until he had almost finished the series, or he should have written faster. Either way, I'm afraid the show will end before the last book is released which will ultimately disappoint a large number of this fan base that has been dedicated for so long.

I am actually not sure if GRRM would have aimed for a ending to the series if it wasnt for the show... I can understand it if he just lost his interest in it. But I believe we have to thank the show for him still writing on it.

And I could be mistaken because I dont recall which events were part of which book. But I thought Ive seen some post SoS material in the trailer... And I think AFFC and ADWD will be finished whithin the fifth season. I wouldnt be surprised if we see some Winds material in the next season... (Edit in the fifth season of course not in the coming one...)

[Shebara]

I believe GRRM is fooling us all and more than likely already is close or has the books finished. He will the last two books, each one to coincide 6 months to the beginning of the last two seasons. forcing his real fans to buy the hardcovers, and at the same time securing NY time top seller status.

Oh my sweet Summerchild, I do hope so much you are right! May the Crone have whispered that into your ear!!!

[Winnief]

Well, I think in a sense the show's schedule is a good thing since it's forcing GRRM to get cracking on the final two volumes-to write them more quickly and to not meander so much as he did during the last two books. It seems like at first he thought they would actually do everything according to the schedule he set in the books through ten long slow paced seasons and only around Season 3 did he realize they were not going to do that.

I sometimes suspect that they're waiting for the release date of Season 4, to tell us the release date for WoW so it will have maximum impact.

If GRRM does manage to get WoW out by early 2015 then that could buy as much as two years for ADoS, covering seasons 6 and 7.

[Frey Pie]

He had a big chunk of Winds written. It was material cut out from Dance. Several people "in the loop" have hinted he is close to being done. And correct me if im wrong but editing on the last book only lasted 3-4 months no?

Nope its been pretty much confirmed that Dream will be out late 2015 at the earliest, unless they are completely misleading us. You are correct though that George had a good few chapters already written

The only way I can see through this is if there's a season each for Feast and Dance. Winds has to be packed-he's left us the Battle of Ice, the Battle of Fire, the Ironborn v the Redwynes, Cerseis trial by combat, etc etc. There is a huge amount just about to happen at the end of Dance so there is a slight chance that Winds could be made into two seasons worth of episodes, like Storm.

[Frey Pie]

And I'll absolutely hate it if the seasons take over from the books

[The Emberheart]

Nowadays more than 5 seasons for a big show is a hard thing to achieve. Another thing to consider is, does the generic viewer want to see the whole story done in series, will HBO invest in that if viewers start to drop? I can well imagine 5 television series and then after years a miniseries touching lose ends. I hope the series keeps doing well so that the whole story gets told. Alternately, the show many become a miniseries sooner, with 5 episodes per season, which buys GRRM time. Or episodes may start to last 40 minutes to spread it out.

[Werthead]

The showrunners, David Benioff and Dan Weiss, want to tell this story in 80 episodes or 8 seasons. They have specifically ruled out 10 seasons or longer.

Another producer, Frank Doelger, has expressed they should definitely get to 70 episodes (7 seasons) with no problem. I suspect that means he thinks that 8 seasons may be a bit of a struggle due to cost/contract renegotiations etc, but doable.

The showrunners have also ruled out producing a side-series to delay the main series. In fact, HBO explicitly do not have the rights to Robert's Rebellion or Dunk & Egg a the moment, and GRRM has said he doesn't want to do Robert's Rebellion, ever).

The showrunners have also ruled out inserting a one-or-two year gap because they'd lose the cast and it'd be too expensive.

On the basis, come what may, Game of Thrones will almost certainly be ending no later than the early summer of 2018, or not much more than four years from now.

Season 4 of GoT will have substantial amounts of AFFC and ADWD material in it, including but not limited to:

Brienne and Pod in the Riverlands.

Sansa in the Vale.

Stannis and Davos negotiating with the Iron Bank.

Theon negotiating the surrender of Moat Cailin

Daenerys being presented with the bones of the shepherd's son.

Daenerys meeting Hizdar.

Bran meets Bloodraven.

GRRM's publishers have ruled out a 2014 publication. They also seemed dubious over 2015 (initially saying that TWoW was 'years' away), but later admitted that 2015 was actually possible.

On that basis, we can only realistically be expecting publication of The Winds of Winter in the second half of 2015 at the absolute earliest. Which means that GRRM will have, after the publication of TWoW, less than three years to get A Dream of Spring out ahead of the series.

We can already see problems forming here.

With an eight season plan, the producers have to account for adapting at least four fairly large books - AFFC, ADWD, TWoW and ADoS - in only four, maybe four-and-a-bit, seasons. Three of those books are reportedly as large as ASoS, which has taken two (maybe closer to one-and-a-half, once the filler and early AFFC/ADWD material is extracted) seasons to cover. This by itself is tricky, especially as their budget would only seem to accommodate one large battle sequence per season and by late ADWD/early TWoW they have three battles in progress simultaneously (Winterfell, Meereen, Storm's End).

Realistically then, I can see them needing to have completed the AFFC/ADWD material by the end of Season 5, and split the battle of Winterfell and Meereen so one falls at the end of Season 5 and the other at the start of Season 6, otherwise they can't afford to do them both (Storm's End can probably happen off-page, even assuming the whole Aegon/Golden Company storyline makes it in). This leaves them 3 seasons (6, 7, 8) to cover TWoW and ADoS, or one-and-a-half seasons each. This gives them enough room to do them justice. It does require them to be fairly ruthless with AFFC/ADWD material, however, and I can see large parts of those books being left out, minimised or happening off-screen (the Kingsmoot could be done off-screen in S4, and we could join Euron and Victarion in Season 5 instead).

Covering AFFC and ADWD across two seasons, not starting TWoW material until mid/late Season 6, for example, might mean they'd have to rush the final two seasons/books, which could be a huge mistake. Compressing in the middle and doing the ending justice is better than sprawling the middle and rushing the ending, IMO.

On this basis, I can see TWoW material appearing on screen as early as late Season 5 (i.e. next year) and the bulk of the book appearing in Season 6. To avoid spoilers at all, GRRM needs to get TWoW out by June 2015 (which is possible but might be doubtful after Voyager's comments), and to avoid the bulk of the spoilers by April 2016 (which seems completely plausible right now).

However, to avoid spoiling ADoS at all (since ADoS material would be appearing mid-Season 7), GRRM needs to get the book out by May 2017 or thereabouts, and to the avoid HBO spoiling ending, by June 2018.

This is, against the odds, still possible: if he publishes TWoW in mid-2015 and powers through ADoS with all guns blazing, it should be possible. But I would say that such a schedule is definitely on the optimistic side of things.

Wind will be out this year or early next spring.

No, it won't. 2014 has been ruled out. 2015 is still a possibility, but it does not sound like a certainty.

Several people "in the loop" have hinted he is close to being done

Who?

[The Emberheart]

But regardless of what the show-runners want, isn't it always the case that when a television broadcaster (HBO) decides otherwise, the show-runner/writer doesn't get what they want? An expansive show needs a lot of viewers and 'trends' grow old eventually. By far not all the viewers are also book fans. I'd love the series to last to 2018 but I have to see it happen first.

[Pecan]

Well, I think in a sense the show's schedule is a good thing since it's forcing GRRM to get cracking on the final two volumes-to write them more quickly and to not meander so much as he did during the last two books. It seems like at first he thought they would actually do everything according to the schedule he set in the books through ten long slow paced seasons and only around Season 3 did he realize they were not going to do that.

I sometimes suspect that they're waiting for the release date of Season 4, to tell us the release date for WoW so it will have maximum impact.

If GRRM does manage to get WoW out by early 2015 then that could buy as much as two years for ADoS, covering seasons 6 and 7.

I think this will happen. I think it has to happen.

[Werthead]

Certainly it's HBO's decision to put up the money or not. However, HBO are pretty good about cancelling a show with a season in hand. They could announce that GoT is being cancelled this year and give the producers Season 5 to wrap everything up in. They wouldn't really be able to, but they'd be able to cobble something together.

However, my point was more that the show finishing in eight seasons creates tight deadlines which require GRRM to be finishing the books in the relatively imminent future to avoid being overtaken; the show ending after six or seven seasons instead merely exacberates the problem even further.

[drstrangelove]

Suppose the 5 year age gap is written in between winds and dream? Or they wait an additional six months to a year. The funny thing is people say George is kicking it into gear but he really isn't. He withheld 200 pages from dance and is only a quarter or the way through 3 years later. That suggests he's only written 200-300 pages in 3 years., or a third of a page a day. He hadn't done shit. If winds is released in 2015 that would mean he'd have 1-2 years to do dream. Come onnnn

[AZAXD]

So what would your solution be? For HBO to pause the show for at least 5 years to give him enough time to finish?

Yes. Please :crying:

[Pecan]

But regardless of what the show-runners want, isn't it always the case that when a television broadcaster (HBO) decides otherwise, the show-runner/writer doesn't get what they want? An expansive show needs a lot of viewers and 'trends' grow old eventually. By far not all the viewers are also book fans. I'd love the series to last to 2018 but I have to see it happen first.

Keep in mind that HBO doesn't depend on ratings in the same way that regular broadcast television does. Unless viewership falls completely off the table, it's in their interest to finish the series as planned (in 8 seasons) so that they have the complete story as part of their library on HBOGO, as well as generating recurring revenue from Amazon Instant Video, Blu-Ray, and DVD.

Also, HBO's other tentpoles, Boardwalk Empire and True Blood, are ending their runs, so GOT may be a critical part of their viewership strategy in the next few years.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

They can film it while the cast is under contract, and air it an year or two later. But why they would do that? When this started Martin had all the time he needed and more. They dont have to pay for the broken dishes.

[Pecan]

Suppose the 5 year age gap is written in between winds and dream? Or they wait an additional six months to a year. The funny thing is people say George is kicking it into gear but he really isn't. He withheld 200 pages from dance and is only a quarter or the way through 3 years later. That suggests he's only written 200-300 pages in 3 years., or a third of a page a day. He hadn't done shit. If winds is released in 2015 that would mean he'd have 1-2 years to do dream. Come onnnn

Where are you getting that he's only a quarter of the way through 3 years later?