The Ukraine II: Oof, яight in the bяeadbasket!

[Yagathai]

Previous thread is >400 posts, so we can continue in this one. Have at it!

[Datepalm]

Damn, beat me to it. I was going to title it "Ukraine 2: Ще не вмерла Україна"

I guess I'll save it for 3, but it might be incorrect by then.

[Horza]

In an amazing coincidence the Russian Western Military District is going on manoeuvres this week:

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) -- Russia ordered 150,000 troops to test their combat readiness Wednesday in a show of force that prompted a blunt warning from the United States that any military intervention in Ukraine would be a "grave mistake."

Vladimir Putin's announcement of huge new war games came as Ukraine's protest leaders named a millionaire former banker to head a new government after the pro-Russian president went into hiding.

Amid the tensions, Putin put the military on alert for massive exercises involving most of the military units in western Russia, and announced measures to tighten security at the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet on Ukraine's Crimea peninsula.

The maneuvers will involve some 150,000 troops, 880 tanks, 90 aircraft and 80 navy ships, and are intended to "check the troops' readiness for action in crisis situations that threaten the nation's military security," Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies.

The move prompted a sharp rebuke from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who warned Russia against any military intervention in Ukraine.

"Any kind of military intervention that would violate the sovereign territorial integrity of Ukraine would be a huge, a grave mistake," Kerry told reporters in Washington. "The territorial integrity of Ukraine needs to be respected."

but relax, guys: this isn't Rocky IV:

Still, Kerry insisted that U.S. policy was not aimed at reducing Russia's influence in Ukraine or other former Soviet republics, but rather to see their people realize aspirations for freedom in robust democracies with strong economies.

"This is not `Rocky IV'," Kerry said, referring to the 1985 Sylvester Stallone film in which an aging American boxer takes on a daunting Soviet muscleman. "It is not a zero-sum game. We do not view it through the lens of East-West, Russia-U.S. or anything else. We view it as an example of people within a sovereign nation who are expressing their desire to choose their future. And that's a very powerful force."

and way to bury the lede AP:

Still, while the exercises include most units from Russia's Western Military District and some from the Central Military District that spreads across the Urals and part of Siberia, it does not involve troops from the Southern Military District, such as the Black Sea Fleet and areas in southern Russia that neighbor Ukraine.

This seemed to signal that Moscow does not want to go too far. By flexing its military muscles Russia clearly wants to show the West it must seriously consider its interests in Ukraine, while avoiding inflaming tensions further.

[sleath56]

Horza - The thing is: the type of freedom the Ukrainian protesters are pushing for go against Russia's interests.

[sleath56]

Horza - I totally get the sarcasm, but do you think it's more for show or do they intend to actually do something? I probably respect your thoughts on the matter more than the people reporting for the AP, lol.

Russia or the US?

For Russia, it's a yes. It will get bad publicity from a intervention, but it will be needed to maintain the 'reputation' the Kremlin is trying to build for Russia as a strong world power independent from Asia and NATO. They cannot afford to lose Ukraine, especially now with the entire world's attention on them.

For US, it's a no. It doesn't fit the foreign policy the US has built for itself in the past 5 years. If the US has backed down from military intervention/chemical sanctions all the way in Syria to appease Russia, they will definitely not pull anything with Russia's next door neighbor, ESPECIALLY if Russia gets involved.

Unless Russia starts mass atrocities in their intervention like genociding the Tatars or destroying the infrastructure, I don't see the US willing to risk the consequences of interfering.

Helping Ukraine will unfortunately < Maintaining stong relations with Russia to counter Russo-Sino relations.

[Horza]

Horza - I totally get the sarcasm, but do you think it's more for show or do they intend to actually do something? I probably respect your thoughts on the matter more than the people reporting for the AP, lol.

This is for show, but it doesn't mean they won't do something.

The situation in Crimea is quite dicey: there have been heated clashes between pro-Russian protesters and pro-Maidan groups joined by Crimean Tatars (who have a long and bitter history with Russia). In Sevastopol and elsewhere Roadblocks have been put up by pro-Russian activists and city officials have refused to recognise Kiev's new government. The high number of Russian passport-holders gives the Kremlin domestic legal standing to intervene on their behalf. If that situation turns into a serious civil conflict it could push the Kremlin consensus towards intervention.

Otherwise though, I think the basics of the situation aren't so dire for Moscow as sometimes gets made out. The Ukrainian economic situation is near-catastrophic, and the US and EU can only offer limited short-term assistance and will attach many painful and complex strings to anything more substantial and long-term. The new leadership in Kiev know this, they've been around the block and have worked with Russia in the past - they're not going to do anything stupid like revoke the basing rights for the Black Sea Fleet or apply to join Nato. It's in their and Moscow's interests to work out a way forward, possibly through a new federal arrangement. If Ukraine was a bit less Kiev centric it would give the separatists in east and west less to tussle over and help each feel it was closer to its preferred compass point without ripping the place apart.

Realistically, Russia's influence in eastern Ukraine and Crimea is a fact, and it's not going anywhere. It should be possible to accept that without accepting kleptocratic rule in Kiev. Opposition to that system unites all Ukrainians, if the nationalistic voices at either end can be marginalised there's a great deal of common ground to be found and that, not Ukrainian neo-nazis is Putin's real nightmare.

[Dinsdale!]

Russia has vital strategic interest in Ukraine that extend beyond Donetsk and the Crimea.

Russia does not want NATO or the EU in north-eastern Ukraine. Once you cross the Dnieper at Kiev, there aren't any natural barriers to reaching Moscow. If Russia starts a war, the Ukraine might split in two with the western part joining the EU and NATO. The area North-East of Kiev is Ukrainian-speaking; it will not join the Russian speaking half without serious coercion.

That's a big can of worms. Russia would rather see what it can accomplish with soft power.

[Horza]

This sure sounds like a positive development:

Armed men have seized the government buildings in the capital of the Ukraine’s Crimea region and hoisted a Russian flag over a barricade.

The men occupying the parliament building in the regional capital, Simferopol, early on Thursday did not come out to voice any demands. They wore black and orange ribbons, a Russian symbol of the victory in World War II. The men also put up a sign saying “Crimea is Russia.”

They threw a flash grenade in response to a journalist’s questions. Phone calls to region’s legislature rang unanswered, and its website was down.

Ethnic Tatars who support Ukraine’s new leaders and pro-Russia separatists had confronted each other outside the regional parliament on Wednesday.

Interfax quoted a local Tatar leader, Refat Chubarov, as saying on Facebook: “I have been told that the buildings of parliament and the council of ministers have been occupied by armed men in uniforms that do not bear any recognisable insignia.”

“They have not yet made any demands,” he said.

About 100 police were gathered in front of the parliament building. Doors into the building appeared to have been blocked by wooden crates.

The streets around the parliament were mostly empty apart from people going to work.

“I heard gunfire in the night, came down and saw lots of people going in. Some then left. I’m not sure how many are still in there,” said a 30-year-old man who gave his name only as Roman.

Fairly safe to say that doesn't look like the work of a spontaneous gathering of concerned citizens.

[jurble]

Gunmen have apparently seized Crimean regional parliament and raised the Russian flag.

edit: god damn it, beaten to the punch

Fairly safe to say that doesn't look like the work of a spontaneous gathering of concerned citizens.

Of course it is! And Putin will have no choice but to graciously accept the will of the Crimean residents and accept Crimea into the Russian Federation.

[Solmyr]

And just like that we're one step away from war. I really hope that, whatever the outcome, the moral of this conflict would not be lost upon the world. I know that countries like Ukraine are just a playground for superpowers like the US, the EU and Russia, but there are real people living there and for every person's death there are thousands of living people, who are being impacted in a negative way.

[jurble]

Would Ukraine actually fight for Crimea? I'm not a fan of people dying. But I do think border changes are interesting, especially in Europe. Russia blobbing a bit would be neat, provided the human cost is nil.

[Disturber of Peace]

Giving Putin East Ukraine ensures peace for our time.

http://www.google.hr/search?site=&source=hp&ei=z_AOU8fcG6WqyAPkuIDQCg&q=chamberlain+peace+in+our+time&oq=chamberlain+pea&gs_l=mobile-gws-hp.1.0.0j0i22i30l4.3517.10500.0.13153.16.12.0.4.4.0.724.3931.2-1j2j1j3j1.8.0....0...1c.1.36.mobile-gws-hp..4.12.4777.iW6NM8B7Wdw

[Horza]

Of course it is! And Putin will have no choice but to graciously accept the will of the Crimean residents and accept Crimea into the Russian Federation.

Yeah, I've been remiss in just posting Western disinfo, let's hear what TASS has to say about all this:

SIMFEROPOL, February 27. /ITAR-TASS/. The buildings of Crimea’s parliament and government are under the control of the Russian speaking population’s self-defence units. Self-defence groups are spontaneously emerging all over the peninsula and moving to Simferopol, Itar-Tass correspondents report.

Ah.

Would Ukraine actually fight for Crimea? I'm not a fan of people dying. But I do think border changes are interesting, especially in Europe. Russia blobbing a bit would be neat, provided the human cost is nil.

You play a lot of Paradox games, I'm guessing.

Who knows? Does national self-preservation require steadfast resistance to invasion or is discretion the better part of valour? If this is a provocation (and it sure as fuck looks like one) if I were in the Kremlin I'd be offering a way out for Ukraine where they could give Crimea up without me having to leap into the void.

[Horza]

Interior Ministry units dispatched (UA)

After an armed seizure of the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the alarm had to raise the soldiers of the Interior Ministry of autonomy , as well as all of the police . This was announced by Acting Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arseniy Avakov.

As he wrote Avakov on his page on Facebook: « In the morning , armed with automatic weapons and machine gun detachment unknown persons seized the building of the Verkhovna Rada of Crimea in Simferopol. The alarm raised by the troops of the Internal Troops and all of the police . "

Also Avakov said: in order to prevent bloodshed among civilians, entered the environment around the block , where the Supreme Council of Crimea.

" Enacted a number of measures to counteract the reaction of extremist action to prevent the situation in an armed confrontation in the city center " - quoted Acting head of the Interior Ministry "Interfax" .

Today around 4:30 forceful seizure occurred Crimean Verkhovna Rada and the Cabinet of Ministers. Total now in the Houses of Parliament is about 60 people.

According to the media center of Simferopol is currently surrounded by police officers. Transport and pedestrians will not miss. Trolley from the main market square in the side . Lenin also do not go. To seized by unknown building Council of Ministers are not allowed to take pictures and even forbidding .

Yesterday at the walls of the Crimean parliament passed two meetings - the Crimean Tatar Mejlis and activists of the party " Russian Unity" and the Cossacks.

In general, the meeting gathered about 10 thousand people. Crimean parliament met to consider two issues: the socio-political situation in the Crimea and the Council of Ministers report . There are people fighting in the crowd had a crush . The number of victims during a rally in Simferopol has grown to 30 people.

In addition, as MP Mustafa Jemilev during mass demonstrations in Simferopol, killing two people. "Unfortunately, as a result of the collision killed two in one heart attack, woman trampled crowd" - he said.

[jurble]

Yeah, I've been remiss in just posting Western disinfo, let's hear what TASS has to say about all this:

Holy shit, it's like a parody of propaganda.

[Horza]

Holy shit, it's like a parody of propaganda.

What do you mean 'parody'?

[jurble]

I meant that it reads like something from someone mocking propaganda. Over-the-top and such.

[Horza]

(Acting-President) Tourchinov: We'll regard movements of Russian navy forces in Crimea as aggression (RU)

------------

I meant that it reads like something from someone mocking propaganda. Over-the-top and such.

Yeah, there's smart propaganda that seeks to persuade and undermine, and there's crude exercises in asserting the preferred reality of those in power. Both are valuable.

----------

In case this wasn't dramatic enough for people, Twitter is awash with tales of a unidentified APC convoy headed to Simferopol, apparently photographed here.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Putin vs Obama.

One has a history as a KGB officer, and is a decisive strongman in every sense of the word.

The other has a history as a community organiser, and flops around on every military issue to define red lines in such a way that he can back out of any type of decisive action if humanly possible.

It really is no contest.

[The Iceman of the North]

Putin vs Obama.

One has a history as a KGB officer, and is a decisive strongman in every sense of the word.

The other has a history as a community organiser, and flops around on every military issue to define red lines in such a way that he can back out of any type of decisive action if humanly possible.

It really is no contest.

Hooray for Tyrants!