Three Queens: Cersei, Margery, Myrcella

[Hippocras]

This is what I see happening next in the fight for the throne:

Kevan's death will cause an escalation of tension between Lannisters and Tyrells. In the midst of this tension, Nym and Tyene will arrive in King's Landing. Nym will pretend to be Cersei's ally against the Tyrells and Cersei, desperate for allies, will be too quick to believe it. Tyene will get close to the High Sparrow.

Cersei's trial will reveal the continued existence of Gregor Clegane to the Dornish, causing another rift. The Faith will choose either Lancel or Sandor as their champion. If Lancel, Cersei will win her trial and continue causing chaos in King's Landing a little while longer while completely lacking allies. If Sandor, then Cersei will be convicted, in which case Qyburn will set her free from the black cells and bring her into hiding somewhere. Possibly the Twins, or Riverrrun where Genna is. I don't see how else she would survive conviction and I am quite sure she will survive.

If Margery's trial takes place, my bet is she will lose it. However the Tyrell armies will be infuriated and will not permit her imprisonment: She will escape either before or after the trial. War will break out in King's Landing between the Faith Millitant and the Tyrell forces. The small Dornish force in King's Landing will side with the Faith.

Cersei will try to convince Tommen to come to her when the fighting breaks out, but he will choose Margery and the Tyrells. The remaining Lannister forces will retreat to their base while the Tyrells also leave to defend the Reach and protect Tommen and Margery.

Meanwhile, Dorne will arrange a deal with the Faith, whereby Myrcella's betrothal to Trystane will be annulled, and she will be married to Aegon, preventing a dispute between Myrcella's and Aegon's claims.

In this way a standoff will be created with Cersei gathering the Lannister forces and supporting neither Tyrells nor Martells, the Tyrells backing Margery and Tommen, and the Martells behind Myrcella and Aegon - for now, although I am quite sure they know that both Myrcella and Aegon have fake claims.

Cersei in the meantime will be looking for another route to power. The only two left to her are Littlefinger and Euron. My guess is she picks Littlefinger, still unaware that Sansa escaped with him. However once she learns, she may absolve Sansa, having been given the clues that the Tyrells were behind Joffrey's murder. Littlefinger could demand Sansa's name cleared as a condition for his help. He may believe erroneously that the North, Riverlands and Vale are all safely behind him once he reveals Sansa.

This will be the state of things when Euron makes his next move after Oldtown (my guess is Dragonstone), Daenerys arrives in Westeros, and Stannis helps Asha win back the Iron Islands.

[Chillboy]

Aegon won't marry the daughter of the usurper who killed his father.

[Hippocras]

Aegon won't marry the daughter of the usurper who killed his father.

Except Aegon is fake and never knew Rhaegar, and this is a way for him to win the throne without fighting.

Even with Dorne he does not have enough allies to fight for it.

[Kennedy the Keen]

Will Tyrion seek revenge on Varys for killing his uncle?

I think Cersi will head back to Casterly Rock, GRRM has said we will have a view point their at some point in the next novel, and that is probably where she will again meet up with Jamie. Which is when we will see how Jamie's weirwood dream unfolds.

[Hippocras]

Will Tyrion seek revenge on Varys for killing his uncle?

I think Cersi will head back to Casterly Rock, GRRM has said we will have a view point their at some point in the next novel, and that is probably where she will again meet up with Jamie. Which is when we will see how Jamie's weirwood dream unfolds.

Possibly yes. But if she is forced into hiding, she would not go there immediately because that would be a pretty obvious hiding place.

[Kennedy the Keen]

Possibly yes. But if she is forced into hiding, she would not go there immediately because that would be a pretty obvious hiding place.

I'm just thinking the Lannisters, Cersi is gonna bail and fast, possible stealing Tommen against his will. Casterly Rock seems a safe enough place for her to hide and the Tyrells and the Martells will be to busy with each other to deal with laying siege on Casterly Rock (just for poor, old, saggy titted Cersi) and lose most of their Army's and have a potential to be flanked by another enemy.

I think Cersi will realize her remaining family is more important than fighting for the iron throne. But what about Marcella. Idk maybe she'll just count her loses and hide her selfish self.

[Hippocras]

I think if there is a war of three queens, it is quite necessary for Tommen to remain with Margery. If he does not, Margery's claim will be extremely weak since their marriage was not consummated. So she would not be a queen.

Then again, with the Faith firmly against Cersei she may have trouble getting the marriage annulled.

Or, maybe Margery will make the ridiculous claim in her trial that she did consummate with Tommen.

[Lady of Dragonstone]

Will Cersei truly believe that a Martell is on her side? Especially the daughter of the Red Viper? I can't see that as becoming canon, because Cersei is paranoid by nature, and I believe she knows the Martells are against her.

How can the Tyrells prevent Marg being imprisoned? As far as precedent, Marg will be imprisoned prior to the trial. I'm not sure if the Tyrells can influence the Faith to that extent, especially if there's a Sand Snake whispering in the HS's ear. We see through Cersei's POV how the Faith watch over their prisoners. IMO I cannot see Margaery escaping unless the Tyrells have someone on the inside on their payroll; and I'm not sure the new HS is accepting favors or coin at the moment. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I would be very surprised if this happens.

But if the Faith aligns with Dorne as you propose (and I wholeheartedly agree), I doubt that the Faith will reach any kind of back-door deal with the Tyrells, and I believe that if the Tyrells try to rebel, the Faith Militant will take action. I don't know if they can defeat the Tyrells, but I think it's going to happen.

I do think there will be a war of queens, but I don't think Cersei or Myrcella will take part. Cersei will never rule as a Queen again because her judgement cannot be trusted; Myrcella is in Dorne, and the Dornish are currently working to put their own heir next to Aegon, NOT the heir of a family that the Dornish obviously cannot control. I agree that Aegon would never marry Myrcella because of who she is, but more than that: he won't have the chance. Why would Doran allow it when he could instead promote his own house? With the Lannisters falling from grace, all Doran has to do is move out of the way and let the cards fall where they may. Then his path will be clear, and Myrcella is only needed as a hostage and no more.

[Hippocras]

@My Fair Lady

Margery is not currently a prisoner. The Faith released her into Tarly's custody.

All they have to do is whisk her away before the trial, or ensure that she is evacuated immediately after.

[Hippocras]

@My Fair Lady

Doran will not promote his own house via Aegon because he knows Aegon is fake. However he will align with fAegon to defeat the Lannisters and Tyrells.

Using Myrcella's claim is the perfect way to do this without starting wars in places he is not ready to fight.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Betrothals don't need annulment, you just break them. So that part would actually be even easier. I think Trystane would be very upset though. He seems to adore Myrcella.

I agree that Aegon is unlikely to marry Myrcella. If he's fake, he doesn't know he's fake so as far as Aegon is concerned, Myrcella is the daughter of the man who killed his father. I can see it as a slight possibility though, given the Targ ancestry of the Baratheons (which Myrcella isn't, but nobody knows that, and it's not like Aegon has a sister to marry), and a possible Elizabeth of York parallel in that it could help bring peace.

[Hippocras]

Well I am pretty sure any war of three queens will be before any dance of dragons which will itself be before any war for dawn. Daenerys's part comes after - and is the dragon dancing part. So I really doubt at this point that she is one of the three queens of this first, immediate conflict - which I am quite sure will be a direct consequence of the trials of Cersei and Margery.

So if not Daenerys, but still three queens, how does that happen?

Arianne may of course marry Aegon herself, but if she did this I suspect it would be her own stupid move, not advised by Doran. I think Doran knows better, and would not set her up for defeat and death with a fake Targ when he knows perfectly well there is a real one out there. He may also know by now that Quentyn is dead.

That leaves only Myrcella. And it is very very easy to see how that would come about as a direct and immediate consequence of the trials.

However, Myrcella is not queen unless Tommen is dead, and if Tommen is dead, Margery is not queen. The only way for there to be three queens at the same time is if Myrcella marries Aegon, or Tommen dies and Margery marries Aegon, or if Arianne does. And like I said, Arianne doing so would be her own move, not sanctioned by Doran, and would be profoundly stupid.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Well I am pretty sure any war of three queens will be before any dance of dragons which will itself be before any war for dawn. Daenerys's part comes after - and is the dragon dancing part. So I really doubt at this point that she is one of the three queens of this first, immediate conflict - which I am quite sure will be a direct consequence of the trials of Cersei and Margery.

So if not Daenerys, but still three queens, how does that happen?

Arianne may of course marry Aegon herself, but if she did this I suspect it would be her own stupid move, not advised by Doran. I think Doran knows better, and would not set her up for defeat and death with a fake Targ when he knows perfectly well there is a real one out there. He may also know by now that Quentyn is dead.

That leaves only Myrcella. And it is very very easy to see how that would come about as a direct and immediate consequence of the trials.

However, Myrcella is not queen unless Tommen is dead, and if Tommen is dead, Margery is not queen. The only way for there to be three queens at the same time is if Myrcella marries Aegon, or Tommen dies and Margery marries Aegon, or if Arianne does. And like I said, Arianne doing so would be her own move, not sanctioned by Doran, and would be profoundly stupid.

Well reasoned, but you can also throw in the fact that Littlefinger may be planning to name Sansa Queen in the North. We all know that probably won't happen because Rickon will show up, but LF doesn't know that and he was the one who mentioned the "war of three queens" that was coming. It's not prophecy that I remember, just Baelish running his mouth.

[Hippocras]

Well reasoned, but you can also throw in the fact that Littlefinger may be planning to name Sansa Queen in the North. We all know that probably won't happen because Rickon will show up, but LF doesn't know that and he was the one who mentioned the "war of three queens" that was coming. It's not prophecy that I remember, just Baelish running his mouth.

True enough that.

Still, I like how fAegon will suddenly gain access to the throne without even fighting if he marries Myrcella in the above scenario. I think it has really interesting potential for setting up the Dance of Dragons that would follow.

Also I really hope any move LF makes regarding Sansa will happen a bit later and not get her dead.

[Hippocras]

I thought of another possibility:

Tarly's anti-maester stance may be a sign that he is a pure Targ supporter and not a fan of Hightower's power. He may be one of Dorne's secret allies, along with the Sparrows, in which case releasing Margery to his custody was effectively a kidnapping. Maybe the war starts through her kidnapping.

I suppose if Margery is a prisoner she is still technically a queen and the Tyrell forces would still start a war to free her.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Good possibility there! So you think Tarly knows about the Aegon/Dany plans?

[Hippocras]

Good possibility there! So you think Tarly knows about the Aegon/Dany plans?

I guess we will find out....eventually. :D

[Lady of Dragonstone]

@My Fair Lady

Margery is not currently a prisoner. The Faith released her into Tarly's custody.

All they have to do is whisk her away before the trial, or ensure that she is evacuated immediately after.

Sorry if you thought I insinuated that.. I know she is not. I should have worded my post more clearly, I apologize.

Evacuating her after the trial would be much harder than before the trial. If they would do it, they would be smart to do it before -- but I think the HS would send out his new army to find her...

@My Fair Lady

Doran will not promote his own house via Aegon because he knows Aegon is fake. However he will align with fAegon to defeat the Lannisters and Tyrells.

Using Myrcella's claim is the perfect way to do this without starting wars in places he is not ready to fight.

Hippocras, we do not have enough information to know that Doran thinks Aegon is fake. That is the whole point of Arianne's mission. Can you cite this in the text, or are you just theorizing when you say Doran knows this? I do agree with you that he is aligning with fAegon to eliminate the Lannisters, though.

Betrothals don't need annulment, you just break them. So that part would actually be even easier. I think Trystane would be very upset though. He seems to adore Myrcella.

I agree that Aegon is unlikely to marry Myrcella. If he's fake, he doesn't know he's fake so as far as Aegon is concerned, Myrcella is the daughter of the man who killed his father. I can see it as a slight possibility though, given the Targ ancestry of the Baratheons (which Myrcella isn't, but nobody knows that, and it's not like Aegon has a sister to marry), and a possible Elizabeth of York parallel in that it could help bring peace.

Correct about the betrothals, I think the only reason Joff looked to the HS before breaking his to Sansa is because he is anointed, and it was the "proper" thing to do. I understand why you see it as a possibility with the Elizabeth comparison -- but I think Aegon is a very headstrong, stubborn young boy, sensitive to slights, and he would take it as a slight. Then again, who knows :)

[Hippocras]

In the pre-released Arianne chapter, she mentions that Doran told her to tread carefully with Aegon because he suspected he might not be who he claims.

This proves only that he has suspicions of course, not that he knows for sure. However we do know that he only ever tells Arianne or anyone else what he needs them to know and nothing more. In this case he needs Arianne to appear to be negotiating with Aegon seriously. Which is why, even if he does know Aegon is fake, he would not tell her yet.

It all depends really on who his KL informant is. If his informant is Varys, he will have very strong suspicions about Aegon because if Aegon was real, he would have been in on the plan from the start. If his informant is Littlefinger, he may have been told Aegon is fake - we know that Littlefinger knows some deep secret about Varys and it is quite likely that Varys's Aegon plan is that secret.

This theory is based on some key assumptions therefore:

1. Doran is far smarter than people think

2. Doran knows Aegon is fake

3. The Three Queens conflict is the war for the South, just as the Five Kings was a war for the North. Littlefinger may or may not have helped start it, but he will stay clear of it. It is too early to make his move for Sansa and declare her a queen.

All may prove to be untrue, but that is my assessment for now.

[aryagonnakill#2]

Aegon has a lot more troops available to him than you give him credit for, don't forget he is going to fight Dany who has dragons. The marcher lords never marched with Renly/Stannis they stayed where they were to protect against Dorne and Robert had to fight the marcher lords when he called his banners to rebel. The Crown Lands have yet to fight as well, the last time they fought was with Rhaegar at the Trident. Add in a likely Tarly defection(talked about strong and decisive lord who has resentment against the Tyrells and his own claim to Highgarden + for some reason has this positive notion that Aegon and Joncon are not real, at least in front of the others+ will likely be sent out to fight them could potentially hear about Margery loosing her trial or an Ironborn victory in the Reach before facing them.) and Aegon has the largest army in the 7 Kingdoms.