Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Does Putin see his success in Crimea as a sign it will work elsewhere?Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Does Putin see his success in Crimea as a sign it will work elsewhere?Discuss. Let's send Victoria Nuland to Russia to overthrow Putin. I have a friend who has traveled a lot and after reviewing some video footage and the Ukraine thread, thinks she's capable of doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Today Crimea, tomorrow the entire world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solmyr Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Does Putin see his success in Crimea as a sign it will work elsewhere?Discuss.In the absence of evidence supporting this hypothesis I'm inclined to say no. Besides, "success in Crimea" is a simplification of the geopolitical situation in the region. Until recently Putin had the entire Ukraine as a trade partner. Today he has a small chunk of it as an independent state that will rely heavily on Russia's support and likely to be unable to carry its own weight. In economic terms it's quite the opposite of success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Solmyr,Indeed, hence my question. Will he push further? If he takes Eastern Ukraine or the rest of Ukraine his logistic issues are not so serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Linsox Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Let's send Victoria Nuland to Russia to overthrow Putin. I have a friend who has traveled a lot and after reviewing some video footage and the Ukraine thread, thinks she's capable of doing it.My Ukrainian source tells me this is sarcasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 I do need to listen to the. Nuland phone call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 In the absence of evidence supporting this hypothesis I'm inclined to say no. Besides, "success in Crimea" is a simplification of the geopolitical situation in the region. Until recently Putin had the entire Ukraine as a trade partner. Today he has a small chunk of it as an independent state that will rely heavily on its support and likely to be unable to carry its own weight. In economic terms it's quite the opposite of success. Not only that, there's some discussion over whether or not Ukraine now should have to pay back the money Russian loaned the country when Yanukovych was President (basically as a bribe to pull out of the EU deal). http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2014/03/18/the-problem-of-ukraines-russia-bond/ My Ukrainian source tells me this is sarcasm. Nonsense. I'm simply buying in to Miodrag's assessment of her efficacy at generating coups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lummel Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If Putin is in gut feeling mode and not eating those yoghurts with the friendly bacteria while pursuing a national prestige policy then there are only so many choices open to him - more brinkmanship, more pressure on neighbouring countries, more crowd pleasing Kremlin ceremonies as ex-soviet states are welcomed 'back' into the Russian Federation. It looks like more trouble ahead, although, possibly, having a decent enemy, like renewed NATO activity or a properly fascist/nationalist regime in Ukraine might satisfy him. That might be enough to whip up public support periodically by pointing to the dangers and threats beyond Russia's boarders, after all internal enemies like homosexuals and pussy riot are a bit awkward, for them to be seriously threatening the state has to be weak and ineffectual. If the State (and by extension Putin) is mighty, bare-chested and strong, then internal enemies can't be worth worrying about. Therefore the regime needs a decent external threat. Fortunately or unfortunately such policies have only a short shelf life because they tend to end in war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 More seriously, it's still possible he eventually tries to get some parts of Eastern Ukraine. After all, annexing Crimea means the pro-Russia side of the country is out of power for decades, so he might try to get as much as possible right now.Would be pretty unwise and risky, imho - and highly immoral, but I try not to reason in such terms when assessing how a quite amoral person acts and takes decisions. Which is why so far, I consider this is a low probability.If he's totally nuts, he might go for the Baltic states. But so far, I haven't seen serious hints he's that far off. I still assume he has a not-totally-wrong view of what he and Russia can do and what they can't do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The Eastern Europeans I know here in Canada have always feared Russia would try to roll back history sooner or later. It's the 2,000 pound gorilla in the room. Probably forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Lord Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I do need to listen to the. Nuland phone call Here you go. A lot of discussion of movement leaders and government make-up. Talk of Klitschko's standing, as well as Yatsenyuk, and machinations at the UN. And at the end, some mention that there should be some outreach to Yanukovych as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Here you go. A lot of discussion of movement leaders and government make-up. Talk of Klitschko's standing, as well as Yatsenyuk, and machinations at the UN. And at the end, some mention that there should be some outreach to Yanukovych as well. Here's a better one. Full Transcript with some annotations: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 It's bog-standard diplomatic talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerraPrime Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Lord Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Did I miss something - why was the last thread locked at Page 11? I echo Maithenat's thought...I don't see/hear what was so damning in Nuland's conversation. I assume that those conversations happen in most diplomacy situations. Russia certainly did it with Ukraine during elections and during the more recent protests and demonstrations. I would be beyond stunned if other major powers didn't have these kinds conversations and attempts to sway things their way. I don't think I could be convinced that Russia, USA, China, UK, Japan, etc were not all doing this exact kind of thing. I condemn Russian moves because, until shown otherwise, they're the only ones who put their troops in play and actually took part of the country they were trying to influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinsdale! Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Miodrag, I just went through the Victoria Nuland transcript.She want three things:1. Klitschko out of a new government.2. Yanukovych in a new government.3. The UN in the form of Robert Serry to help out [i.e. "f the EU"] Which of these three things happened? I see Victoria Nuland trying to interfere in the affairs in a fairly technical way and really really not succeeding. And I'm not sure why you mention John McCain - he's very loud and obnoxious, but how is he moving policy? I don't really see this as a US conspiracy. It's more alike to the Athenian Sicilian expedition. When a country is as powerful as the US, countries in far-flung location will try to convince it to intervene on their behalf. I'm sure the EuroMaidan folk approached the US as much or more than the US came to them. People like Joe Biden and Susan Rice don't know how to say no to them, and thus we get the disastrous Obama foreign policy in Syria, Libya and the Ukraine. They say "Oh wow interesting and important things are happening in X, the US better be involved and take advantage of that." Sigh... idiots. Sometimes the tail wags the dog. - Dinsdale! Out of curiosity, have you ever seen an astroturf demonstration in Serbia. Do those happen there? Or is that only an American thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Linsox Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Russia still does not like chocolate:As tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate over Crimea, a new front has opened in the simmering chocolate war. Law enforcers in Lipetsk in southern Russia shut down the Roshen confectionery plant on Thursday, choking off the Ukrainian company’s access to the lucrative Russian candy market.“Police arrived at the Lipetsk plant on Wednesday morning and took away the keys,” Alexander Zolotarev, press spokesman for Roshen CIS, said. “They sent all the workers home. The plant is closed.”In a separate action, law enforcers took over Roshan’s warehouse in Lipetsk that serves the company’s sprawling Russian distribution network. Roshen has outlets all over Russia from Kaliningrad to Sakhalin Island in the far east, said Zolotarev. “Russians won’t be eating Roshen confectionery any more.”Roshen, one of east Europe’s biggest sweets makers is controlled by Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian tycoon and pro-European politician. That could explain why the company has been feeling the heat in Russia for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kungsmurfen Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Vice dispatch sixteen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Reptitious Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castel Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia At this point I'm not sure if Russia is trolling people or any statement of theirs takes on a new tone now that we know the extent of their "dedication" to their fellow Russians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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