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[TWOW SPOILERS] Theon I, part vi


Angalin
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Manderley already knows what kind of tiger he has by tail in the Boltons courtesy the information that has been related to him by Wex...There is no need to attack Dreadfort even if either Bolton makes it back there...it will be isolated and will be surronded by unhappy Northmen on all sides

Inside Winterfell Lady Dustin and the Ryswells are unreliable Bolton allies at best and Whoresbane Umber is now receiving instruction by drum from Crowsfood at the castle walls

The Freys are about to be swallowed by the lakes and more likely than not will be impersonated on the return to Winterfell by Manderley men...

The Boltons are in dire circumstance...their only saving grace at point is the ability to send ravens to The Twins to execute the hostages and prisioners...I suppose it would be a good time to review the Maesters present at Winterfell and if any of the three would be willing to follow Bolton instruction....

I haven't heard that theory about the Umbers. I did know that "Umber shall not fight Umber" but the issue of their segregation was poorly explained. Are we sure that the Umbers inside Winterfell are going to fight for Stannis/against Roose Bolton?

Also if Ser Davos shows up with Rickon Stark doesn't that just pretty much spell the end for Roose? If the Frey portion of his host is destroyed then isn't he left with Dreadfort men only? Seems that anyone who is not sworn to the Dreadort or The Twins will declare for a Stark as soon as one shows up.

All of this has had me re-thinking Roose Bolton, lol. After the Red Wedding I judged him to be one of the better players in the Game of Thrones but it seems that everything has went to shit for him. Murdering Robb Stark and allying himself with the Freys is looking like a really bad move for him, primarily because he knew that there were threats to any would-be Warden of the North. He knew at least that Bran and Rickon were not killed by Theon.

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The Boltons are in dire circumstance...their only saving grace at point is the ability to send ravens to The Twins to execute the hostages and prisioners...I suppose it would be a good time to review the Maesters present at Winterfell and if any of the three would be willing to follow Bolton instruction....

Has the citadel sent a replacement Maester to Winterfell yet?
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Has the citadel sent a replacement Maester to Winterfell yet?

Well there are three at Winterfell (as per the Prince of Winterfell chapter) at this point and I would think at least two not sympathetic to the Bolton position

Medrick advised the Hornwoods

Rhody...Lord Cerwyn

young Henly...Lord Slate

So I`m pretty sure the Citidel is not sending a Maester....

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Well there are three at Winterfell (as per the Prince of Winterfell chapter) at this point and I would think at least two not sympathetic to the Bolton position

Medrick advised the Hornwoods

Rhody...Lord Cerwyn

young Henly...Lord Slate

So I`m pretty sure the Citidel is not sending a Maester....

Hilarious if it ended up being Maester Pate, who passed all his exam-thingies with new found suspicious skill and speed...

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I haven't heard that theory about the Umbers. I did know that "Umber shall not fight Umber" but the issue of their segregation was poorly explained. Are we sure that the Umbers inside Winterfell are going to fight for Stannis/against Roose Bolton?

Also if Ser Davos shows up with Rickon Stark doesn't that just pretty much spell the end for Roose? If the Frey portion of his host is destroyed then isn't he left with Dreadfort men only? Seems that anyone who is not sworn to the Dreadort or The Twins will declare for a Stark as soon as one shows up.

All of this has had me re-thinking Roose Bolton, lol. After the Red Wedding I judged him to be one of the better players in the Game of Thrones but it seems that everything has went to shit for him. Murdering Robb Stark and allying himself with the Freys is looking like a really bad move for him, primarily because he knew that there were threats to any would-be Warden of the North. He knew at least that Bran and Rickon were not killed by Theon.

I remember the part about Umber not fighting Umber but did not know that the drums were also being used as a way to send messages. The Umbers relationship adds another level to how the Battle of Winterfell plays out

You would think that any Stark boy showing up would be enough for any smart lord to get the North to rally against Bolton. As for the Boltons, they know Bran and Rickon werent burnt alive but rather on the run, out in the wild, and during winter while all it does is snow. Bolton probably thinks he doesnt have to worry to much about the Stark boys. BTW, is this the worse snow storm ever or what? The way its described, it sounds like there should be about 50 feet of snow. I would hate to be the guy who is in charge of shoveling snow around a castle.

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Did Roose know that the deaths of Bran and Rickon were faked at that time he made his deal with Tywin? I thought that info didnt come to even him until later, and its as Ramsay's decision to sack Winterfell and blame it on Theon.



Roose's decision to take out Robb and his most powerful lords would make sense if he assumed the Stark kids are gone except for Sansa (married to his new allies, the Lannisters) and possibly Arya. Bolton would then be assured that as the Warden of the North, his House would be given the ruling status over the North at least until a son of Sansa and Tyrion was of age to make a claim on Winterfell and possibly the Warden title.



Bolton's plan is in serious jeopardy with two remaining male Starks alive, which he acknowledges later on. He knows the rest of the Northmen are only cooperating with him because he is in a technically superior position, but he isn't under much of an allusion that his rule in the north will last very long, or is particularly secure. Especially after having Ramsay legitimized.


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Did Roose know that the deaths of Bran and Rickon were faked at that time he made his deal with Tywin? I thought that info didnt come to even him until later, and its as Ramsay's decision to sack Winterfell and blame it on Theon.

Roose's decision to take out Robb and his most powerful lords would make sense if he assumed the Stark kids are gone except for Sansa (married to his new allies, the Lannisters) and possibly Arya. Bolton would then be assured that as the Warden of the North, his House would be given the ruling status over the North at least until a son of Sansa and Tyrion was of age to make a claim on Winterfell and possibly the Warden title.

Bolton's plan is in serious jeopardy with two remaining male Starks alive, which he acknowledges later on. He knows the rest of the Northmen are only cooperating with him because he is in a technically superior position, but he isn't under much of an allusion that his rule in the north will last very long, or is particularly secure. Especially after having Ramsay legitimized.

Take a look at "The Most Precise Timeline in Existence" ASOIF General forum....sorry I've never figured out how to cut and paste colour me a luddite...

Roose may or probably not depending on where and how he heard...Arya 10 ACOK...Tyrion 2 ASOS...

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One of the questions I ask myself, is what if the northmen do not care that there are Starks still alive? These guys know that Roose and the Freys betrayed Robb, are the hostages being executed really that powerful anymore?



I guess what I'm saying is do we know for sure that honor isn't dead among these men? What if Rickon rolls up with Davos and Stannis is dead?


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One of the questions I ask myself, is what if the northmen do not care that there are Starks still alive? These guys know that Roose and the Freys betrayed Robb, are the hostages being executed really that powerful anymore?

I guess what I'm saying is do we know for sure that honor isn't dead among these men? What if Rickon rolls up with Davos and Stannis is dead?

If that were the case why would Manderly have sent Davos on the mission to Skagos? Why not just behead for real?

There was a crackpot floating around a couple of years ago (haven't seen it lately) suggesting that Davos finds Rickon and starts to return to White Harbour however shipwrecks on Sweetsister....Shaggy has saved Rickon, Osha and Davos and is guarding against any of the locals taking them in... until Jon Snow of Sisterton shows up....Shaggy calms down and Rickon revives to see the spitting image of what he thinks his Father looked like at twenty-one years of age.....take it from there

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I'm gonna list some key lines from the chapter and try my best to explain how they prove Ramsey wrote the letter:

Obviously the implication here is that Maester Tybald has 3 ravens that fly exclusively to Winterfell and has been using them to betray Stannis' location to the Boltons.

Yes, leave the ravens that only fly to Winterfell, as detailed earlier in this exchange. But why?

Also meaning, it may be false. But why would Massey receive false news of Stannis' death? Well:

The Pink Letter claims that Stannis is dead. It also claims there was a 7 day long battle. Odd that GRRM decided to include detailing the length of the battle. Why is it important for the reader to know? Well, after Roose Bolton get's Tybald's last message, he says:

3 days for the Freys/Manderys to arrive at The Gift, 1 day of a farce of a battle (Manderly's drive the Freys into the frozen lake - more on this later) and to plot on how to prevent Ramsey from following into battle and discovering their ploy (see Dreadfort ravens explanation above), and another 3 days for Stannis' host to reach Winterfell. 3 + 3 + 1 =

How do I know the frozen lake will play a part in the doom of the Freys? Well, from Theon we know:

And Roose Bolton orders this:

Then we have this piece of information, when Stannis asks Theon if boys killed Aenys Frey. Theon answers:

What's Stannis smiling about? He's been given an idea, which he begins to explain here:

Then the ravens, who I assume are Bloodraven or Bran, begin to hint at the plan as well:

And where is the tree? Well, later in the chapter, Asha says:

Aaaand the ravens go bananas.

As far as the heads on the Winterfell walls go, seems fishy *wink wink*. Perhaps we now know the significance of why GRRM had the Manderlys mount "Davos" head on their walls. Fake head mounting seems their style, certainly, and that "evidence" would help the Manderlys' story once they returned to Winterfell to deceive the Boltons and spread word that Stannis was just outside the walls (invisible behind the snow).

All these little "truths" sprinkled throughout the Pink Letter are given substantial support from this chapter, and for me solidifies that Ramsay did indeed write the Pink Letter, just under false pretenses,

Also, consider this:

The parchment is a letter from Jon explaining Arnolf's treachery.

Here we see Stannis ordering Justin Massey to drop "Arya" off at Castle Black before heading off to Eastwatch because, as he explains, "A true king pays his debts."

He felt, even if it was to the most minuscule degree, indebted to Jon. What could possibly be the reason for sending "Arya" to Jon at Castle Black, then turning around and sending a raven (which would undoubtedly travel faster than Massey's company) to Castle Black with a deceptive message? If it was to draw Jon out, why send "Arya" to Castle Black in the first place? If Stannis truly believes he's a "true king", why would he pay his debt with deception? It makes no sense.

Clarify this for me and I may go along with you. How, in your opinion, did Ramsay get the information about Stannis' death. Was it through the ravens or by word of mouth? If it was by raven, surely there be no heads on the wall. Also do you think Stannis gave up light bringer to prove the story of his death. Ramsay isn't the type to lie. The reason I think Mance wrote it is kuz the letter refers to him by name and by his title. Mance is prideful.

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Clarify this for me and I may go along with you. How, in your opinion, did Ramsay get the information about Stannis' death. Was it through the ravens or by word of mouth? If it was by raven, surely there be no heads on the wall. Also do you think Stannis gave up light bringer to prove the story of his death. Ramsay isn't the type to lie. The reason I think Mance wrote it is kuz the letter refers to him by name and by his title. Mance is prideful.

I'll try my best to assess your question:

How does Ramsay know of Stannis' "death"? It's a two part answer:

1) He receives word of the battle and outcome via the ravens.

It's the key behind why Stannis keeps Tybald's ravens (which only fly to Winterfell). Stannis intends to send a message to Winterfell, to be sure, and the rest of the chapter is sprinkled with suggestions as to what that message might contain.

Make no mistake, Stannis knows he cannot take Winterfell (due to it's defenses and his current situation), which is why he says this:

"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved."

More like "whilst we froze", but despite that blunder, Winterfell is still manned and defended by the majority of the Bolton's strength:

Roose Bolton was not a man to blunder blindly out into the snow, map or no. He would hold his main strength in reserve, keep his best men with him, trust in Winterfell's massive double wall.

So Stannis knows, that even with Bolton's mistake, he's still at a disadvantage; he cannot take Winterfell head on. Which is why the ravens are significant. It's Stannis trump card, provided by Jon Snow's intel on the Karstark betrayl.

But why send the ravens first? Well:

"Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them."

Ramsay unfolds Stannis' grand plan. Granted, the plan becomes more clear once the Manderlys betray the Freys into the frozen lake and whatever magic at the weirwood goes down, but nonetheless Ramsay is a wrench in the cogs. If any portion of Ramsay's battalion survives and is able to get word back to Roose about Stannis' ploy, the game is over. Roose will turtle up in Winterfell and Stannis' army will freeze and die once winter finally descends upon them (which is fast approaching).

So they use the ravens to prevent Ramsay from uncovering the plan. Ramsay receives the raven's message of Stannis defeat, doesn't bother to leave Winterfell, and the hosts await the Manderlys' triumphant return. Which then leads too...

2) Ramsay is given evidence of Stannis' defeat by the returning Manderlys.

Heads, spikes, walls. This is a huge nod at the Manderly/Davos deception. The idea is, the Manderlys return to Winterfell with some heads, partly unrecognizable due to frostbite and the cold. Even if the heads weren't ravaged or frozen over, I think it's unlikely the Boltons could distinguish Stannis' head from any other head. Also, consider the parallel GRRM is drawing here. Ramsay, as Reek, set the events in motion to deceive the North of the Stark boys' deaths, with false bodies. Now he's being deceived in a similar fashion. It isn't just plot serving, it's poetic.

Then there's the sword. I don't think Stannis believes the sword is Lightbringer. In fact, I don't think he's truly dedicated to R'hllor at all, but rather uses the sword and the religion as a means to support his cause (but I suppose that's another argument for a different time). If your question is, "Why would Stannis part with his famed sword?" My answer is this: Because the value he places on the sword is tied to how it can best serve his cause, not how it fits with the prophecy. Since Dragonstone, he's been using the glamor of the sword to intimidate and inspire - which in turn drew people to his cause. In this case, he's using the sword as a prop in his scheme to fool the Boltons.

Deception is nothing new to Stannis. He's a seasoned battle commander - he WILL do and use whatever it takes to win, e.g. Renly Baratheon and Cortnay Penrose.

I agree with you in part that Ramsay isn't wholeheartedly lying about Stannis' defeat. He's writing what he believes to be true, even though it's evident that it isn't.

Now, here's what I find most puzzling in the letter:

If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

Mance... in a cage? Yea... no. That part is definitely the red flag of the letter. And we knows this because in ADwD, just before we learn of the plan to rescue "Arya", Mance explains to Mel:

“I’ve sung my songs, fought my battles, drunk summer wine, tasted the Dornishman’s wife. A man should die the way he’s lived. For me that’s steel in hand.”

Mance was caught at the Wall because he was taken unaware. With the Winterfell mission, he knows exactly what's in store for him, and he's making it clear that he certainly does not intend to be taken captive again. Yet, Ramsay is claiming the opposite in the letter. Who are we to believe? How exactly does Ramsay know of Mance?

Well, I'm inclined to think that Mance eluded the Boltons via the Winterfell Crypts (Bael the Bard style), and Ramsay flayed the info out of the spearwives.

So, why would Ramsay claim he has Mance when he doesn't? Because he's a deceptive prick, e.g. pretending to be Reek, attacking the unaware Ser Rodrik. I wouldn't put that minor lie past him. Also, he has Mance and he hasn't flayed him? Really? There should have at least been a piece of Mance to go along with the Pink Letter (just like the Moat Cailin letter had a piece of Theon), but there was no such memento.

As far as Mance sending the letter goes, I agree it's possible, but I don't think it's at all plausible. If it was, then consider this:

Mance somehow escapes capture, somehow manages to find the exact raven that flies to the Wall, somehow manages to find a quill and ink, somehow manages to find pink wax (which he has to melt to "smear" onto the letter, and writes this elaborate ruse of a letter with the intention of... what exactly?

That's the most pressing part of drawing up a theory on who sent the Pink Letter. You have to establish some grounds of intention, which (when studying Mance) I see none of.

Hope this clarified things for you. If not, it's ok. We're all entitled to our own opinions, and I'm definitely open to different perspectives and theories.

Edited by pobeb
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To everyone trying to make sense of why Asha is requesting Theon to be executed at the weirwood trees, it seems pretty simple to me:

Beheading > Burning

Her last chapter in ADwD began with 3 dudes being burned alive for cannibalism. Go read that and you'll understand exactly why she's making such a request.

Speaking of which, I absolutely love how the ravens are being used in this chapter. It's sheer genius. They serve so many purposes, it boggles my mind:

-They're used to implicate Tybald's betrayl

-They're obviously being warged by Bran or BR

-They have foreshadowed use in Stannis' ruse

-The echoing of the weirwood plan

- And share in the best line, in my opinion, of the entire chapter

Stannis bristled at that. "I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"
"You must not call him that!" A wave of pain washed over Theon Greyjoy. He closed his eyes and grimaced. When he opened them again, he said, "You do not know him."
"No more than he knows me."
"Knows me," cried one of the ravens the maester had left behind. It flapped its big black wings against the bars of its cage.
"Knows," it cried again.
Stannis turned. "Stop that noise."

LOL "Stop that noise" I don't doubt there's something to take from this exchange, but for now I'm content to just laugh at it.

Edited by pobeb
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I loved this chapter. Best of the preview chapters in my opinion. The ending is chilling and unanticipated perfection. It ties in so well with the last Bran chapter where he tastes the blood of the sacrifice to the weirwood tree.



And what else can be done with Theon? He redeemed himself from his Reekness with the rescue of Jeyne, but he was still responsible for loss of Winterfell and his actions led to the sack of Winterfell. He can never be forgiven for those actions. A sacrifice to the old gods is perfect. It is as noble an end as he can hope for. Also it will strengthen Bran/weirwoodnet so it acts as redemption.



I hadn't thought of using the lake with holes in it to kill the Freys, but that sounds like a great idea.



I was thinking that Stannis would be inspired by the wall and would build a giant snowcastle from all the snow.The snow is good for building (if it's the same as at Winterfell where they made the snowmen) and would even be forshadowed by the Sansa snowfort scene and by Mel's looking for Stannis and only seeing snow.




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I'll try my best to assess your question:

How does Ramsay know of Stannis' "death"? It's a two part answer:

1) He receives word of the battle and outcome via the ravens.

It's the key behind why Stannis keeps Tybald's ravens (which only fly to Winterfell). Stannis intends to send a message to Winterfell, to be sure, and the rest of the chapter is sprinkled with suggestions as to what that message might contain.

Make no mistake, Stannis knows he cannot take Winterfell (due to it's defenses and his current situation), which is why he says this:

More like "whilst we froze", but despite that blunder, Winterfell is still manned and defended by the majority of the Bolton's strength:

So Stannis knows, that even with Bolton's mistake, he's still at a disadvantage; he cannot take Winterfell head on. Which is why the ravens are significant. It's Stannis trump card, provided by Jon Snow's intel on the Karstark betrayl.

But why send the ravens first? Well:

Ramsay unfolds Stannis' grand plan. Granted, the plan becomes more clear once the Manderlys betray the Freys into the frozen lake and whatever magic at the weirwood goes down, but nonetheless Ramsay is a wrench in the cogs. If any portion of Ramsay's battalion survives and is able to get word back to Roose about Stannis' ploy, the game is over. Roose will turtle up in Winterfell and Stannis' army will freeze and die once winter finally descends upon them (which is fast approaching).

So they use the ravens to prevent Ramsay from uncovering the plan. Ramsay receives the raven's message of Stannis defeat, doesn't bother to leave Winterfell, and the hosts await the Manderlys' triumphant return. Which then leads too...

2) Ramsay is given evidence of Stannis' defeat by the returning Manderlys.

Heads, spikes, walls. This is a huge nod at the Manderly/Davos deception. The idea is, the Manderlys return to Winterfell with some heads, partly unrecognizable due to frostbite and the cold. Even if the heads weren't ravaged or frozen over, I think it's unlikely the Boltons could distinguish Stannis' head from any other head. Also, consider the parallel GRRM is drawing here. Ramsay, as Reek, set the events in motion to deceive the North of the Stark boys' deaths, with false bodies. Now he's being deceived in a similar fashion. It isn't just plot serving, it's poetic.

Then there's the sword. I don't think Stannis believes the sword is Lightbringer. In fact, I don't think he's truly dedicated to R'hllor at all, but rather uses the sword and the religion as a means to support his cause (but I suppose that's another argument for a different time). If your question is, "Why would Stannis part with his famed sword?" My answer is this: Because the value he places on the sword is tied to how it can best serve his cause, not how it fits with the prophecy. Since Dragonstone, he's been using the glamor of the sword to intimidate and inspire - which in turn drew people to his cause. In this case, he's using the sword as a prop in his scheme to fool the Boltons.

Deception is nothing new to Stannis. He's a seasoned battle commander - he WILL do and use whatever it takes to win, e.g. Renly Baratheon and Cortnay Penrose.

I agree with you in part that Ramsay isn't wholeheartedly lying about Stannis' defeat. He's writing what he believes to be true, even though it's evident that it isn't.

Now, here's what I find most puzzling in the letter:

Mance... in a cage? Yea... no. That part is definitely the red flag of the letter. And we knows this because in ADwD, just before we learn of the plan to rescue "Arya", Mance explains to Mel:

Mance was caught at the Wall because he was taken unaware. With the Winterfell mission, he knows exactly what's in store for him, and he's making it clear that he certainly does not intend to be taken captive again. Yet, Ramsay is claiming the opposite in the letter. Who are we to believe? How exactly does Ramsay know of Mance?

Well, I'm inclined to think that Mance eluded the Boltons via the Winterfell Crypts (Bael the Bard style), and Ramsay flayed the info out of the spearwives.

So, why would Ramsay claim he has Mance when he doesn't? Because he's a deceptive prick, e.g. pretending to be Reek, attacking the unaware Ser Rodrik. I wouldn't put that minor lie past him. Also, he has Mance and he hasn't flayed him? Really? There should have at least been a piece of Mance to go along with the Pink Letter (just like the Moat Cailin letter had a piece of Theon), but there was no such memento.

As far as Mance sending the letter goes, I agree it's possible, but I don't think it's at all plausible. If it was, then consider this:

Mance somehow escapes capture, somehow manages to find the exact raven that flies to the Wall, somehow manages to find a quill and ink, somehow manages to find pink wax (which he has to melt to "smear" onto the letter, and writes this elaborate ruse of a letter with the intention of... what exactly?

That's the most pressing part of drawing up a theory on who sent the Pink Letter. You have to establish some grounds of intention, which (when studying Mance) I see none of.

Hope this clarified things for you. If not, it's ok. We're all entitled to our own opinions, and I'm definitely open to different perspectives and theories.

I asked kuz I figured it was either the ravens or a returning host but I see you chose both. I just find it hard to believe that Ramsay would be that naive to trust a returning Manderly host with no Freys. Sounds suspicious to me.

Also, in the Theon chapter from TWOW seems like Stannis is not planning an invasion. Actually seems like he's still investigating Arnolf Karstark, Tybald, and the ravens. While in ADWD Jon receives the letter that Stannis is dead, which if we believe your theory would mean that the ravens were sent to Winterfell already.

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I asked kuz I figured it was either the ravens or a returning host but I see you chose both. I just find it hard to believe that Ramsay would be that naive to trust a returning Manderly host with no Freys. Sounds suspicious to me.

I agree with you, it is suspicious for the Manderlys to return Freyless, but I don't think the Boltons care. So, the Freys all perish? So the better for them. What would Roose care if neither Frey or Manderly return? He's not trying to beat Stannis, he already has Stannis beat - Roose is sitting in a well manned castle, while Stannis is out in the cold. He's purposely sending the Freys and Manderlys to certain doom, and if some manage to return brandishing a "magic" sword and some heads, all the better. Roose has Winterfell, all he needs to do now is just keep it; and therein lies the real battle. Remember, Winterfell is not exactly in a state of peace and harmony:

"The castle was too crowded. Men were at each other's throats, the Manderlys and Freys especially. It's them his lordship's sent after you, the ones that he's well rid of."

Roose doesn't just want peace, he needs it. He's desperate for it:

Roose Bolton said nothing at all. But Theon Greyjoy saw a look in his pale eyes that he had never seen before—an uneasiness, even a hint of fear.

A Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD

The North has no love for the Boltons:

"The north remembers. The Red Wedding, Lady Hornwood's fingers, the sack of Winterfell, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square, they remember all of it."

Also, in the Theon chapter from TWOW seems like Stannis is not planning an invasion. Actually seems like he's still investigating Arnolf Karstark, Tybald, and the ravens. While in ADWD Jon receives the letter that Stannis is dead, which if we believe your theory would mean that the ravens were sent to Winterfell already.

You're right, he isn't planning an invasion. The battle for Winterfell will be over before Stannis steps foot into the city. He's planning to use the ravens, he just doesn't understand how yet.

Also, I don't believe Jon's final chapter is linear in relation to this Theon WoW chapter.

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You're right, he isn't planning an invasion. The battle for Winterfell will be over before Stannis steps foot into the city. He's planning to use the ravens, he just doesn't understand how yet.

Also, I don't believe Jon's final chapter is linear in relation to this Theon WoW chapter.

Would GRRM really separate chapters so off in the timeline to each other between two books though? I like your thesis above and hold it as one of the strongest put forth yet but this is really the weakest link in it.

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