Angalin

[TWOW SPOILERS] Theon I, part vi

189 posts in this topic

On 23/05/2014 at 11:09 AM, pobeb said:

I'm gonna list some key lines from the chapter and try my best to explain how they prove Ramsey wrote the letter:

 

 

Obviously the implication here is that Maester Tybald has 3 ravens that fly exclusively to Winterfell and has been using them to betray Stannis' location to the Boltons.

 

Yes, leave the ravens that only fly to Winterfell, as detailed earlier in this exchange. But why?

 

 

Also meaning, it may be false. But why would Massey receive false news of Stannis' death? Well:

 

 

The Pink Letter claims that Stannis is dead. It also claims there was a 7 day long battle. Odd that GRRM decided to include detailing the length of the battle. Why is it important for the reader to know? Well, after Roose Bolton get's Tybald's last message, he says:

 

 

3 days for the Freys/Manderys to arrive at The Gift, 1 day of a farce of a battle (Manderly's drive the Freys into the frozen lake - more on this later) and to plot on how to prevent Ramsey from following into battle and discovering their ploy (see Dreadfort ravens explanation above), and another 3 days for Stannis' host to reach Winterfell. 3 + 3 + 1 =

 

 

How do I know the frozen lake will play a part in the doom of the Freys? Well, from Theon we know:

 

 

And Roose Bolton orders this:

 

 

Then we have this piece of information, when Stannis asks Theon if boys killed Aenys Frey. Theon answers:

 

 

What's Stannis smiling about? He's been given an idea, which he begins to explain here:

 

 

Then the ravens, who I assume are Bloodraven or Bran, begin to hint at the plan as well:

 

 

And where is the tree? Well, later in the chapter, Asha says:

 

 

Aaaand the ravens go bananas.

 

As far as the heads on the Winterfell walls go, seems fishy *wink wink*. Perhaps we now know the significance of why GRRM had the Manderlys mount "Davos" head on their walls. Fake head mounting seems their style, certainly, and that "evidence" would help the Manderlys' story once they returned to Winterfell to deceive the Boltons and spread word that Stannis was just outside the walls (invisible behind the snow).

 

All these little "truths" sprinkled throughout the Pink Letter are given substantial support from this chapter, and for me solidifies that Ramsay did indeed write the Pink Letter, just under false pretenses,

 

 

 

Also, consider this:

 

 

The parchment is a letter from Jon explaining Arnolf's treachery.

 

 

Here we see Stannis ordering Justin Massey to drop "Arya" off at Castle Black before heading off to Eastwatch because, as he explains, "A true king pays his debts."

 

He felt, even if it was to the most minuscule degree, indebted to Jon. What could possibly be the reason for sending "Arya" to Jon at Castle Black, then turning around and sending a raven (which would undoubtedly travel faster than Massey's company) to Castle Black with a deceptive message? If it was to draw Jon out, why send "Arya" to Castle Black in the first place? If Stannis truly believes he's a "true king", why would he pay his debt with deception? It makes no sense.

Pretty interesting theory, however there are some points that I don t agree.

First, just because they need 6 days to travel back and forth, this times doesn t add up to the time spent in battle. Then, no matter how little they care but neither bolton wold believe all freys died... At most they would believe that manderly killed them all afterwards. The problem with this theory is how many men can manderly bring back? Very few... and why would manderly break his army to destroy the freys? or is he going to say the freys attaked stannis without him and he then killed both armies?

 

Another problem is the timeframe. if we have 7 days of battle and 7 days of travel are we supposed to believe that jon's chapter is written at least 14 days and a ton of chapters before it happened ? it destroys the written timeline... Besides with that kind of time shouldn t "arya" already be at the wall?

 

Another problem with your theory is that even if stannis kills the freys and allies with manderly it won t change the situation inside winterfell. They need a stark for that, and if manderly thought that the northern lords would unite for rick and he had rickon then he wouldn t need stannis... After the failed independence with robb the northerns won t involve themselves in sotuhern fights easily... so he could slay the freys, tell everybody he has rickon safe, the true king of the north and tell the northerns to leave stannis (most reasonable action if he actually has rickon).

 

Even if stannis and manderly allie what is going to change in winterfel if they think stannis is dead? the northern lords are going to leave and stannis is going to attack a half deserted winterfell? It is possible... On the other hand the pink letter can actually be a ploy from stannis to make jon reinforce his army to take winterfell... once they see each other in front of winterfell there isn t more going back...

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Posted (edited)

7 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Here is a timeline that while still only slightly being tweaked, is rather accurate. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/htmlview#gid=8

How did you get the date of the battle of ice? Because that date is at least 3 days shorter than it has to be in the pink letter (7 days of battle + 3 for the army to bring heads and the sword)...

Edited by divica

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Just to add. If theon and asha do escape from stannis during the confusion of an attack then we don t have any pov for what happens to stannis. 

If this was grrm intention then the pink letter chapter should have been written after their escape... Personally, if the pink letter isn t written by someone trying to fool jon and is proven false very fast in a mel or jon pov or if we do have a pov of stannis fights while things happen in another timeline in the wall it will be very awkward to read.

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, divica said:

How did you get the date of the battle of ice? Because that date is at least 3 days shorter than it has to be in the pink letter (7 days of battle + 3 for the army to bring heads and the sword)...

That is a timeline that the *smarttest fans of this forum got together and made. It is updated as new, or detailed, info is given. There is a thread for this timeline to discuss facts or changes. When I find it I will send it to you. 

I just want to add that no one claims it is perfect, just close to it ;) :cheers:

Edited by The Fattest Leech

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On 6/22/2017 at 8:44 AM, The Fattest Leech said:

That is a timeline that the *smarttest fans of this forum got together and made. It is updated as new, or detailed, info is given. There is a thread for this timeline to discuss facts or changes. When I find it I will send it to you. 

I just want to add that no one claims it is perfect, just close to it ;) :cheers:

Here is where a good deal of the discussion about the northern timeline in Dance/Winds begins...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/84563-most-precise-asoiaf-timeline-in-existence/&page=17

Here is the current thread...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/145244-most-precise-asoiaf-timeline-v3/

 

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@divica, courtesy of Lost Melnibonean :thumbsup:

Here is where a good deal of the discussion about the northern timeline in Dance/Winds begins...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/84563-most-precise-asoiaf-timeline-in-existence/&page=17

Here is the current thread...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/145244-most-precise-asoiaf-timeline-v3/

 

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On ‎6‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 6:30 AM, divica said:

How did you get the date of the battle of ice? Because that date is at least 3 days shorter than it has to be in the pink letter (7 days of battle + 3 for the army to bring heads and the sword)...

Battles don't last 7 days, that's not a thing.  3 days of marching on either side + 1 day of battle = 7.

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On 29/6/2017 at 5:21 AM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Battles don't last 7 days, that's not a thing.  3 days of marching on either side + 1 day of battle = 7.

It can if the enemy disperses in the woods, adopting guerilla tactics, while one is desperate to find his Reek and his bride.

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