Does Cersei regain her power with Pycelle and Kevan gone?

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Mace himself can assume the regency, the office doesn't have Cersei's name engraved on it, even though she'll most certainly disagree. To get back in the seat, Cersei must needs work hard for it (and/or pull a deus ex machina out of her ass). Sure, she could have Tommen sign anything she wants, but Tommen's a child, he's not supposed to make binding decisions by himself. Remember Joffrey's various decrees being officially proclaimed, every one ending with "King's Hand and the small council consent"? Tommen's signature or not, she'll need to convince the Tyrells to play ball.

[jarl the climber]

I really just don't see Cersei giving up the throne. She was docile for a time, but Varys wished to reignite it, and she's going to be worse than she ever was before.

Well, Cersei's power rests on her being the Mother of the King, since he is not age she has been the Regent up until now by default until she was arrested and replaced by Kevan.

She has no powerbase from which to resume her actions pre-imprisonment. She has some Lannister guardsmen. Mace Tyrell has two armies.

Varys killing Kevan was more about removing him than returning Cersei to power imo.

I disagree. Lancel, who is Kevans son is in the Warriors Son and is probably its most prominent member. Cersei has been under 24 houir watch since she was released. Therefore I beleive that the High Septon will surmise that the Tyrells were behind it, since there is no way Cersei could have arranged it and that he will support a Cersei regency as long as Lancel is involved and provided Cersei wins her trial. I think the threat posed by the GC will lead the Tyrells to reach some sort of comprimise as their armies are needed elsewhere. I think she will be sort of dependent on the HS to an extent.

As for Cersei's regency, she's been discredited as a leader and humiliated as a woman. She may be able to hold onto her title for a while, but she will have to be able to persuade more than Robert Strong to support her claim and right now, the factions are massing against her because of her heavy-handed plotting that has caused a lot of the post-Tywinian turmoil. In addition to persuading the angry and disgusted Lords and Ladies that she's capable and a better choice than what they would get with a Tyrell coup, she's going to have to neutralize the newly-empowered (by her) High Septon and the Faith Militant, one of whom is her own repentant cousin/former lover who is all too familiar with her duplicity.

Also, I have a feeling that using Robert Strong as a weapon is going to backfire on Cersei spectacularly... or tragically, depending on your point of view. I wouldn't be surprised if Robert Strong ends up killing Tommen either accidentally or because he's a mindless killing machine who kills anything that gets in his/its way.

I do not think we can discount this veiwpoint. I think her support in the West will be greatly weakened, her relatives do not seem as ambitious as her and her Father were. Kevan sort of went along with things in a lacklustre manner but I think beyond her and maybe Lancel, the house is losing the will to continue fighting an unending war to secure the Kingship for her kids. I think her bannermen in the West could end up being even more problematic than her family.

Some of her allies are well known for their cruelty and treachery(Boltons and Freys). Qyburn and his necromancy could end up becoming a double edged sword. I also think the High Septon could abandon her at the drop of a hat, he is more guided by his religion than any kind of political ideology. So, yeah she does she have a cloud hanging over her head and if she does get back into power, one wrong move could be the beginning of the end for her.

[Good Guy Garlan]

The only way Cersei could regain her power would be by eliminating the Tyrells, and maybe not even then. I think she'll be found innocent and Margaery guilty, in which case Mace would openly attack the Faith. With those two factions fighting each other, Cersei could wait for the dust to settle and hope to reign over the remnants or she could take Tommen and flee to Casterly Rock (which is what I'd do in her place)

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes but

which queen? There are two to pick from.

The hints for Cersei are way stronger than for Margaery. Not 100%, but still way stronger.

Cersei's power has always been reliant on illusions to a far larger degree than she ever realized, and the situation she's currently in magnifies that weakness a thousandfold. Her reputation is shattered. The nobles and people of King's Landing have lost all fear and respect for her, and in that situation there's no logical way she can start issuing orders and have anyone feel compelled to obey them. The whole point of the Walk of Shame was to break Cersei's power by breaking down the illusions that propped up that power, and Kevan's death doesn't magically re-institute those illusions.

She became Regent because she had the backing of her powerful relatives and of the Small Council. Kevan took the Regency from her because the majority of the Small Council sided with him rather than her. Even if she wins her trial (which is far from certain), her former power isn't automatically "transferred" back to her. The Tyrell-controlled Small Council will never support her as Regent. If she gets Tommen alone and gets him to sign a paper naming her Regent, she'll just find herself in Ned Stark's position: watching helplessly as the King's decree is torn up by the people with actual military backing. Her powerful relatives are either dead or vanished, so the Tyrells can move against her with impunity. She has no access to any army (Lannister army or gold cloaks) to enforce her wishes. Ser Robert Strong is one "person", and we have no idea whether he'll listen to Cersei's commands or will only listen to commands relayed by Qyburn.

The problem here is still Tommen. He will take orders from Cersei, and disobeying his orders regularly is not something the Tyrells can afford. They can do it once or twice and weather the backlash, but as long as Cersei has access to Tommen, he can always put his foot down. Opposed to the situation with Ned and Robert, Tommen is alive and the Tyrells need him to be.

I think

people are reading way too much into that. Either that's an editing error from the many re-writes, or the whole point is that Raff and this Lannister guard don't actually understand who is in power in King's Landing.

For that matter, "the queen" the guardsman refers to might very well be Margaery. Given the Lannister/Tyrell strife, and given her previous "difficulties", i can see Marg becoming rather more ruthless should she survive, particularly toward Lannister men.

Moreover, note the potential discrepancy here:

The latter is clearly a reference to Cersei, but the former might very well not be. And the fact that the old man refers to "the queen" while Raff feels comfortable calling Cersei "[Tyrion's] sister", but does not refer to her as "the queen", could be relevant.

Maybe it's an editing error. Maybe it isn't. I tend toward the latter, since the whole timeline issue and Ser Harys Swyft leaving weeks/months after Cersei's imprisonment, weeks after her WoS, is so strongly emphasized in Dance. Raff and co would know very well.

Raff clearly emphasizes Tyrion's and Cersei's connection as relatives, while the old fart emphasizes her authority as queen.

[jarl the climber]

Mace himself can assume the regency, the office doesn't have Cersei's name engraved on it, even though she'll most certainly disagree. To get back in the seat, Cersei must needs work hard for it (and/or pull a deus ex machina out of her ass). Sure, she could have Tommen sign anything she wants, but Tommen's a child, he's not supposed to make binding decisions by himself. Remember Joffrey's various decrees being officially proclaimed, every one ending with "King's Hand and the small council consent"? Tommen's signature or not, she'll need to convince the Tyrells to play ball.

The problem with Mace doing this is that it could make him seem complicit in Kevans murder. Mace might not need or want Cersei but he needs the West.

[fangirl000]

I know that Kevan's plan was to send Cersei back to the Rock after her trial, but now he and Pycelle have been eliminated. No one else there has any right to be regent, with Jaime the only other candidate being lost in the Riverlands.

After her trial when UnGregor slices his opponent in half, I think Cersei will regain her power pretty instantly, much to the Tyrell's woes. Cersei was at least somewhat restrained before her walk of shame, but now that she's been entirely exposed for who she is, I really don't think she's going to give a fuck about subtlety anymore and simply make ridiculous life and death demands. Cersei's Walk of Shame will do for her as the Defiance at Duskendale did to Aerys. It broke both of their sanity completely.

I know many of you are saying that the Tyrells won't stand for it, but as regent, Cersei will have the sole power over Robert Strong. Anyone who protests her rule, she'll either have UnGregor finish them off quickly with a single swipe of his sword, or the ones she wants to suffer, she'll hand over to Qyburn. Mace won't do anything for fear of UnGregor killing him and his whole family, although I do think he/Olenna will start going behind the scenes in order to get an alliance with Aegon.

Does anyone else think this is plausible?

Margaery Tyrell is still married to Tommen, right? If she wins her trial, then she could be regent. Also, I think Mace Tyrell is still Hand of the King - he might be appointed regent by the small counsel. I don't see Cersei gaining that power again.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

The problem with Mace doing this is that it could make him seem complicit in Kevans murder. Mace might not need or want Cersei but he needs the West.

OK, so no Mace himself, but not Cersei, either. She actively plotted to destroy Margaery, putting her back in charge would be outright suicidal (no metaphor). So who else could it be?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

OK, so no Mace himself, but not Cersei, either. She actively plotted to destroy Margaery, putting her back in charge would be outright suicidal (no metaphor). So who else could it be?

Stand-still. An uneasy peace between Lioness and Roses.

[Fat Trell]

Well, Cersei's power rests on her being the Mother of the King, since he is not age she has been the Regent up until now by default until she was arrested and replaced by Kevan.

I disagree. Lancel, who is Kevans son is in the Warriors Son and is probably its most prominent member. Cersei has been under 24 houir watch since she was released. Therefore I beleive that the High Septon will surmise that the Tyrells were behind it, since there is no way Cersei could have arranged it and that he will support a Cersei regency as long as Lancel is involved and provided Cersei wins her trial. I think the threat posed by the GC will lead the Tyrells to reach some sort of comprimise as their armies are needed elsewhere. I think she will be sort of dependent on the HS to an extent..

Eh, maybe, If she can get the High Septon behind her, she would have some leverage on the Tyrells. That would mean the High Septon isn't the man I imagine him to be however.

Don't see how Lancel could be a force here. He seems a broken man. And definitely in no hurry to work with Cersei.

[tze]

The problem here is still Tommen. He will take orders from Cersei

. . . He will? Tommen does whatever people around him tell him to do. Tommen is currently surrounded by Tyrells. And the chances of the Tyrells allowing Cersei access to Tommen now are slim to none. Without Kevan, she has no way to enforce her rights to even see him.

but as long as Cersei has access to Tommen

And why on earth would the Hand allow Cersei access to Tommen? Because Cersei asks nicely?

Therefore I beleive that the High Septon will surmise that the Tyrells were behind it, since there is no way Cersei could have arranged it and that he will support a Cersei regency as long as Lancel is involved and provided Cersei wins her trial.

There is absolutely no way that the High Septon can support a Cersei-led regency. He forced her to walk naked through the streets. Supporting her bid for the Regency would be as idiotic as Cersei rearming the Faith.

Moreover, this is not an either/or situation. Blaming the Tyrells for these murders does not require the High Septon to turn to the Lannisters (and certainly not to Cersei). So the Lannisters revel in wickedness, but the Tyrells show themselves to be no better. What to do? Oh my, it just so happens that there's another claimant to the Iron Throne hanging out in the Stormlands! Wonder if he'd be a better candidate than the soiled Lannisters or untrustworthy Tyrells (whose power relies on the aforementioned soiled Lannisters).

Which was probably Varys's plan, actually. He needs the Faith to support Aegon. Having the High Septon mistrust both the Lannisters and the Tyrells is the perfect way to direct the High Septon to support Option #3, Aegon.

[jarl the climber]

OK, so no Mace himself, but not Cersei, either. She actively plotted to destroy Margaery, putting her back in charge would be outright suicidal (no metaphor). So who else could it be?

I think if Cersei regains the Regency she will be limited in her powers. She can not remove Mace as Hand and they must agree on any changes to the Council. Even if she regains the Regency she will be outnumbered on the Council, ecspecially if the new Grand Maester is a Tyrell. The only guy she will have will be Swyft and from what we saw in the last book, he very well might be going to Bravos, and since the bank is trying to reach a deal with Stannis his mission might very well be a failure. There is no denying that things seem bleak.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

And why on earth would the Hand allow Cersei access to Tommen? Because Cersei asks nicely?

Because Tommen wants to see her - regularly.

[jarl the climber]

There is absolutely no way that the High Septon can support a Cersei-led regency. He forced her to walk naked through the streets. Supporting her bid for the Regency would be as idiotic as Cersei rearming the Faith.

Moreover, this is not an either/or situation. Blaming the Tyrells for these murders does not require the High Septon to turn to the Lannisters (and certainly not to Cersei). So the Lannisters revel in wickedness, but the Tyrells show themselves to be no better. What to do? Oh my, it just so happens that there's another claimant to the Iron Throne hanging out in the Stormlands! Wonder if he'd be a better candidate than the soiled Lannisters or untrustworthy Tyrells (whose power relies on the aforementioned soiled Lannisters).

Which was probably Varys's plan, actually. He needs the Faith to support Aegon. Having the High Septon mistrust both the Lannisters and the Tyrells is the perfect way to direct the High Septon to support Option #3, Aegon.

Will he back Aegon without knowing his claim is real? Will Connington want to hitch Aegon to the Faith? Are these the allies he wants? What would Aergon have to give up to get the High Septons support? Can the High Septon just sell and trade his support like some sort of grocer? Not that I'm totally discounting your arguement but it doesn't seem like it will happen overnight either. As far as him supporting Cersei, he himself walks around without shoes for his sins, probably fornication, but that does not prevent him from being HS. If Cersei has payed for her sins and wins her trial, why couldn't he support her? As long as she comports herself with the proper humility that is.

[Lord Varys]

Tommen has no legal power whatsoever. It's legal continuity that made Cersei let Tommen stamp and sign all her orders. Technically she could have done all that in his name, enacting her power and authority as his Regent (just as Littlefinger signed the grant of the Gates of the Moon to Nestor Royce himself, and did not let Robert sign it). That's what regents are for, after all.

The new Lord Regent will be determined by the Small Council, and it will be either Mace or Margaery Tyrell (although I guess it will be Mace, there is a possibility that he'll give his daughter the office Cersei coveted so much). There is simply no other candidate left, and Cersei has neither the legal power nor the military might to do anything about that.

She could always try to run amok and have Ser Robert bring her the heads of Mace, Margaery, and Tarly, but that will not just magically remake her Queen Regent, and/or stop the Red Keep from ripping itself to pieces. Especially not since Ser Robert is only one, possibly indestructible fighter.

As to the Faith: The High Septon does not really need King Tommen anymore. There are a lot of hints in AFfC that the sparrows despise the incest-brat 'King Tommen', and the High Septon de facto had his Faith Militant even before King Tommen revoked Maegor's and Jaehaerys' laws. Now that he is a major power in his own right again (again, de facto, not necessarily de iure, if Tommen never was king, but that doesn't matter anymore), the Faith can treat with King Aegon what he would be willing to pay in exchange for being declared the true king... Back in AFfC it was either the heretic Stannis or the incest-brat King Tommen. Now a non-incest born Targaryen pretender is also in the mix, and if Varys has anything to do with the rise of the Faith, it's pretty obvious who the Faith will end up backing. The sparrows are mostly smallfolk, and the smallfolk adores the Targaryens. Not to mention that a powerful castellan of Harrenhal and soon-to-be leader of the Warrior's Sons once was in love with Queen Rhaella...

Neither AFfC nor ADwD made mention that the High Septon ever anointed King Tommen and thus declared that he was the rightful king. That was the original thing Cersei went to the Great Sept for, and the High Septon consented to anoint Tommen, but the text never actually mentioned that he did it. That's a huge opening for the High Septon to declare any other claimant 'the true king'.

As to the trials: We cannot be sure that they go through as planned. Cersei could be arrested by the Tyrells for the murder of Ser Kevan and Pycelle - that's what I'd do, if I was Mace, and I'd also conduct the trial without intervention by the Faith. The Faith granted Cersei a trial-by-combat, but who is to say that the Iron Throne will grant Cersei permission to leave the Red Keep?

Kevan put pressure on Mace to go through with Margaery's trial, but will Mace continue to do so after Kevan's death? I don't think so. Both he and Tarly seemed to be very pissed about this sparrow regime thing, and the fact that they had to meet their demands...

[gougef]

I think the Cersei path to power runs through the Faith.

[TheNinjaDC]

She will.

Our lioness is enraged, and without any family to stop her.

She will play coy, like a good reformed queen and then go full on Aery's when the opportunity arises/when cornered.

Either at KL or Casterly Rock, she will go out with a bang.

[Faint]

There is the possibility that Cersei wins her trial simply because of Robert Strong whereas Margaery loses her trial on account of the doings of the Sand Snakes. This, in turns, causes the Tyrells to violate their oaths in refusing to hand over Margaery, which will lead the Faith to declare for Aegon. As this is going on, Aegon takes over Storm's End, the Ironborn find more success invading the Reach and there comes the first rumblings of a Dornish invasion. The Tyrells respond by emptying their armies from King's Landing to deal with problems elsewhere, which might create enough of a power vacuum to let Cersei operate.

My personal inclination though, is that even if the above comes to pass, Cersei is far more likely to build her base in Casterly Rock, perhaps even centered on Myrcella (a possibility hinted at many times in the series). I much prefer the idea that Cersei abandons Tommen, flees with Myrcella, declares Tommen a puppet of the Tyrells and crowns her daughter. Or maybe she crowns Myrcella after Tommen has been assassinated by the Martells, but, either way, it happens in Casterly Rock, not in King's Landing.

[tze]

Because Tommen wants to see her - regularly.

Unless Tommen suddenly gets a personality transplant, this is pretty irrelevant. Last time nobody even bothered telling him what was going on with his mother. I find the idea that Tommen will try throwing his weight around (to get to Cersei, no less!) pretty laughable, given what we've seen from him thus far.

Will he back Aegon without knowing his claim is real?

I doubt the High Septon would really care. This man strikes me as extremely pragmatic. And under the dictates of this religion, it looks like (according to the gods, at least), the King is technically whomever the High Septon says he is. That's the point of the blessing, at least in a religious sense.

Will Connington want to hitch Aegon to the Faith? Are these the allies he wants?

As opposed to whom? The Old Gods? The Drowned God? R'hllor? The Iron Throne has always needed the backing of the Faith. That's what got Cersei into this mess in the first place.

What would Aergon have to give up to get the High Septons support?

Probably a promise that he and his heirs will stop breaking the Faith's laws.

Can the High Septon just sell and trade his support like some sort of grocer?

You mean, like the High Septon did when he traded his promise to bless Tommen in exchange for Cersei having Tommen sign a document allowing the Faith to formally re-arm?

Not that I'm totally discounting your arguement but it doesn't seem like it will happen overnight either.

Which is no different than anything else in this series, so I don't see why that would be relevant. It's not like the High Septon has been particularly enamored of, or dependent on, either the Lannisters or the Tyrells thus far. Switching sides shouldn't be such a huge psychological or political burden for him that it would take an extended period of time.

As far as him supporting Cersei, he himself walks around without shoes for his sins, probably fornication, but that does not prevent him from being HS. If Cersei has payed for her sins and wins her trial, why couldn't he support her? As long as she comports herself with the proper humility that is.

Assuming that the High Septon's crime was "fornication" is a pretty huge assumption. Assuming that the High Septon views women's sexual immorality the same as he views men's sexual immorality is clearly contradicted by the text. (Notice that Lancel isn't walking naked next to Cersei.) And even assuming Cersei wins her trial (which is also a huge assumption), she's admitted to such "sins" that the High Septon has not only assigned women to stay with her 24/7, but also cycles them out "lest Cersei corrupt" them. And this despite her "repenting" via the Walk. Winning her trial means she isn't guilty of deicide, incest, and treason. It doesn't make her innocent of the "crimes" she's already confessed to.

Also, the High Septon isn't an idiot. Cersei tried the "I've prayed and repented, I should be forgiven" idea, and the High Septon didn't take the bait. That she'd fool the High Septon into thinking her to actually be contrite is not a safe bet in the slightest. That he'd consider her to have repented of her sins sufficiently is contradicted by what he has done to her post-Walk. And again, the High Septon isn't an idiot. Giving power to the woman he's punished like this is basically begging her to use that power against him.

Moreover, the High Septon is pretty clearly using Cersei as a tool to demonstrate his power. He wants everyone to know that he has the power and authority to force a Queen of Westeros to walk naked through the streets. He wants everyone to know that he has the power and authority to direct the Queen's movements even within the Red Keep. Cersei gaining authority after he's done all of this to her would counteract the entire purpose of the High Septon's actions, because if she has power, that implies the High Septon wasn't capable of taking it away from her. For the High Septon to look strong, Cersei has to be completely diminished.

[Red Wedding Cake]

The High Septon isn't going to declare for a ruler outside of King's Landing. It's either Tyrell or Lannister, and then they'll send their forces to deal with Aegon. If Cersei is going to reassume power she'll have to twist some arms to do so. The question is whose arms does she twist?

[SeanF]

Will he back Aegon without knowing his claim is real? Will Connington want to hitch Aegon to the Faith? Are these the allies he wants? What would Aergon have to give up to get the High Septons support? Can the High Septon just sell and trade his support like some sort of grocer? Not that I'm totally discounting your arguement but it doesn't seem like it will happen overnight either. As far as him supporting Cersei, he himself walks around without shoes for his sins, probably fornication, but that does not prevent him from being HS. If Cersei has payed for her sins and wins her trial, why couldn't he support her? As long as she comports herself with the proper humility that is.

The HS is an intelligent man. He must know that if Cersei returned to power, she'd be a bitter and dangerous enemy.