The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 3

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

RiverRun

Though ordinarily I'd have guessed "Robert's Rebellion."

[JNR]

and we don't know where she was prior to the start of the Rebellion, so we could make it two years

You have to imagine the unexplained disappearance of the daughter of Lord Rickard Stark, Warden of the North, would be noticed in short order, right?

I think she must have disappeared less than a week before Brandon's infamous ride to the Red Keep, which was perhaps a month or two prior to the beginning of Robert's Rebellion.

rather a series of questions: "where did she go, who was she with, what were they doing, and how did they travel from place to place?"

Excellent. If more people thought along these lines, this puzzle would probably have been worked out long ago.

But instead, all we hear is the perfection of Jon as the unification of ice and fire...

And of course, "why hasn't anyone said anything about it in almost 5,000 pages of narrative?" Given Martin's style, I just think the answer(s) are likely to be more complicated than we think, not less...

Absolutely.

I think we can take a reasonable stab at answering your question. The reason no one has said anything about it is that Lyanna didn't go anywhere she was recognized, and so her location was never made public knowledge, in that entire time.

So what Westeros has done is the same thing quite a few fans have done. They've simply connected a few scattered dots of truth to form a story... and that story satisfies them enough that they believe it.

But those dots are really a long way apart.

If you look at five stars in the sky, you might find it pleasing to decide that they look like your girlfriend, and believe it, but that wouldn't necessarily make it so in any objective sense.

Indeed. That's the assumption I make while floating my "Stoney Sept Peach" crackpot. The best evidence that Jon is not Robert Baratheon's son is that "the seed is strong."

Also, Robert would have to have fathered Jon several months after his Rebellion started.

If Robert had found and had sex with Lyanna in that timeframe, surely he would have said so, right?

[Yield.]

My issue with the Starfall scenario... if you want to call it an issue... is that she would have had to get there. A year is a decent amount of time - and we don't know where she was prior to the start of the Rebellion, so we could make it two years - and I just have to think there was some freedom of movement along the way. It doesn't really seem like Martin's style to have one of his characters sitting tight for a year or so, without anything noteworthy going on - plus we've got his not-so-subtle hint (in response to an Ashara-related question) that there are actually horses in Dorne. So I think the relevant question is not "where was Lyanna chained up in the bathroom for so long," but rather a series of questions: "where did she go, who was she with, what were they doing, and how did they travel from place to place?"

And of course, "why hasn't anyone said anything about it in almost 5,000 pages of narrative?" Given Martin's style, I just think the answer(s) are likely to be more complicated than we think, not less...

Particularly the traveling since Lyanna was either with Rhaegar or an escort of at least two KG. Now I could buy the fact that they disguised themselves but in either case we have a very famous knight (Dayne) or the crowned Prince traveling through territory in which both would be recognisable regardless of disguise. Add to it that the Warden of the North and his heir were killed because they dared to ask for their female back and that kind of news travels fast through the small folk (hate that phrase but oh well.) So here's this famous guy and a young girl -- hmm wonder who they are?

[Metopheles]

RiverRun

thanks ;)

see, it's the obvious things we break our heads about. Abbreviations.. :D

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

You have to imagine the unexplained disappearance of the daughter of Lord Rickard Stark, Warden of the North, would be noticed in short order, right?

I think she must have disappeared less than a week before Brandon's infamous ride to the Red Keep, which was perhaps a month or two prior to the beginning of Robert's Rebellion.

Yes, but there's the "disappearance," and then there's the disappearance. In other words... Brandon stormed the Red Keep because someone told him Lyanna was no longer where she was supposed to be (and Rhaegar was at fault). But WE (Martin's readers) don't even know where Brandon thought Lyanna was supposed to be. We are doubly ignorant. For Ned and the other Starks, Lyanna disappeared for "almost a year." For us, she goes missing after the Harrenhal Tourney - and doesn't turn up again until Ned dreams of finding her at the tower of joy. (So, is that a 2 year disappearance... or a 15 year disappearance?)

[setmyheartafire]

The trick is that Selmy never even saw them together, not once in his life.

How, then, did he reach this conclusion? Did Rhaegar perhaps confide in Selmy before the Trident, pouring out his heart about his true love?

It seems unlikely; in the same chapter where Selmy thinks Rhaegar loved his lady Lyanna, he also thinks this:

I think Selmy is an honest man; yet like so many characters, he's prone to drawing conclusions that suit his tastes, even when the information available is weak.

I know, and I've thought all that too. I'm sure everything he says isn't "just so", but I would think that if the married prince, who was seemingly decent friends with some of the KG knights, started up a long distance romance with a highborn lady who wasn't his wife, eventually one of the other KG knights would hear whispers about it and come to logical conclusions based on things he observed himself. He's not infallible, or God, and of course he could interpret things incorrectly, but he is in a position to have seen things that many others involved in the story could not have, and he is a bit older than some of them so has enough life experience for me to think his interpretations wouldn't be far off course.

Do I think he has some misinformation? I do, because I don't think his knowledge of the fate of Ashara Dayne is 100% precise.

But why would her name fall from Rhaegar's lips upon his death had he not loved her? (I do think it was her name.) I mean, that's intensity.

Re: taking advantage of a child, wasn't Lyanna about 16 when she died? And Rhaegar around 23/25? I don't really think that's a huge age difference in Westeros at all. To be honest I don't think for some people that's a huge age difference in our society now.

Re: Does Jon Connington know about Jon, and Rhaegar's involvement with Lyanna? I don't think so. So far in the novels he was not at Rhaegar's side during the rebellion. Plus one would believe that sometime during his POV while he is thinking about Rhaegar/Elia/Aegon, he would mention the other woman and her son.

Re: Could Lyanna have been at Griffin's Roost? I highly doubt it. For the reasons above but particularly for tactical reasons this is a bad move. If the Storm Lord wants something, you really don't put it right within his reach. But, there's no way to know for sure.

Re: Is Jon named after Jon Connington? It's possible certainly. But, there's no way to know for sure.

Re: Lyanna's whereabouts. There's no textual indication of where Lyanna was, or who she was with, after the Tourney at Harrenhall, and before her abduction. It hasn't been mentioned where she was "abducted" from, or in what manner, at all. It could have been anywhere from Winterfell to Harrenhall. Though this does allow for a question though...

Who witnessed or took part in Lyanna's unwilling abduction or consensual flight by or with Rhaegar Targaryen? Because no one so far has been a witness OR party to the event, or at least it hasn't been mentioned in their POV. So it seems that the number of people who actually saw this is extremely limited at least concerning the highborn POVs we get.

There are dozens of scenarios that could have occurred but for both tellings to be possible and not crumble to dust upon scrutiny, I would imagine that the event would have had to be witnessed by almost no one. Since most of the POVs we get in "usual" circumstances (pre-war, at court, daily life at a castle) indicate that a lord's daughter wouldn't necessarily be all by her lonesome frequently, I would think a consensual flight would require some pre-planning. I also think this might be difficult to pull off, especially for Rhaegar as I doubt the contents of his raven correspondence was safe. So how would they plan this? An intermediate party? The only ones I can think of, who make any sense with what we know thus far, are Arthur Dayne, Oswell Whent, Howland Reed, and Benjen Stark. And to truncate the list, I can't see Dayne doing this for several reasons, not least that he's from Dorne and this is more than slightly offensive to Elia and their people, and I can't see Howland Reed doing it because it's rather a sneaky and dishonorable thing to do. So that leaves us with Oswell and Benjen. Benjen was just a boy but we've seen other kids as messengers so I don't really count him out... plus it could lend creedance to his taking the Black after all was said and done. But Oswell is the wildcard and arguably the most able to act in this capacity.

Now, if the event was not conspired prior to its occurence, then either Lyanna really was abducted unwillingly, or was quickly convinced to fly off into the sunset with Rhaegar.

The short version is, we really don't know definites about this event, or who Lyanna was with prior to it.

However, we do know she was in captivity for about a year after her abduction or flight, so she had to have gotten pregnant within that timeframe... and I'd argue that since she was either hidden or in hiding, she would not have been in contact with very many people. From what we've seen in the books getting a captive around unnoticed isn't so easy. Of course, both Lannister brothers are highly recognizable. But why wouldn't Lyanna be? She was crowned Queen of Love and Beauty at a major tournament. I would think the less people who saw her, the better. And if he was with her, Rhaegar would have had to be nearly invisible too as he must have been extremely recognizable.

ETA:

I think we can take a reasonable stab at answering your question. The reason no one has said anything about it is that Lyanna didn't go anywhere she was recognized, and so her location was never made public knowledge, in that entire time.

JNR beat me to that punch it seems. Seems like we think along the same lines there. Cheers! :cheers:

Added to all this, Rhaegar was MIA during the same time, named the Tower of Joy, and has been said to have loved Lyanna. Out of all the possible fathers for Jon, if he's Lyanna's son, I would say Rhaegar is really the most likely possibility as much as we don't know all of the logistics, places, and names involved.

It serves the most purpose in the story.

What would the purpose of Mance, Arthur Dayne, or anyone else being Jon's father be in the story?

Why would Ned keep his parentage from him? Why would Ned make promises to Lyanna, if they are about Jon, if these men fathered him? Dayne was dead. Mance could be easily dealt with. Why would he keep it from Cat all those years? What is so important that he kept his sister's secrets even though it damaged his own honor?

Just about the only scenario that makes any sense in that regard other than the Rhaegar thing is that Lyanna had a son born of Aerys or incest. It's, you know, gross and awful when the Targaryens don't do it. And the timeline doesn't support either of those situations.

[Black Crow]

Particularly the traveling since Lyanna was either with Rhaegar or an escort of at least two KG. Now I could buy the fact that they disguised themselves but in either case we have a very famous knight (Dayne) or the crowned Prince traveling through territory in which both would be recognisable regardless of disguise. Add to it that the Warden of the North and his heir were killed because they dared to ask for their female back and that kind of news travels fast through the small folk (hate that phrase but oh well.) So here's this famous guy and a young girl -- hmm wonder who they are?

Not necessarily: in the first place they could have travelled separately; Lya hooded and escorted, not by knights in shining armour and white cloaks but something more discrete and nondescript, while Rhaegar took another route, meeting later to do the dirty deed.

[Metopheles]

Wouldn't it be crazy if it comes out it was all Lyanna's idea ? She sees Rhaegar, older than her, has his own castle (two even) and has all the money, could her buy nice things, has his own horse (equal to "has a car").. so she is the one who wants to get away from her dull life and live adventurous and dangerous. Riding through the countryside and learning to fight, and be accepted and loved for that. We only see that Rhaegar gives her a rose. Maybe she was the one who ran up to him and said "Let's ride". I would like that.

[setmyheartafire]

Wouldn't it be crazy if it comes out it was all Lyanna's idea ? She sees Rhaegar, older than her, has his own castle (two even) and has all the money, could her buy nice things, has his own horse (equal to "has a car").. so she is the one who wants to get away from her dull life and live adventurous and dangerous. Riding through the countryside and learning to fight, and be accepted and loved for that. We only see that Rhaegar gives her a rose. Maybe she was the one who ran up to him and said "Let's ride". I would like that.

Yeah, I think that would be hysterical. Wolf blooded, check it and see. I've got a fever of a hundred and three.

[Starks Among Us]

Though ordinarily I'd have guessed "Robert's Rebellion."

I've seen it used for both and yoi have to decipher the context it's being used in. Can get VERY confusing in some conversations.

[Starks Among Us]

Yes, but there's the "disappearance," and then there's the disappearance. In other words... Brandon stormed the Red Keep because someone told him Lyanna was no longer where she was supposed to be (and Rhaegar was at fault). But WE (Martin's readers) don't even know where Brandon thought Lyanna was supposed to be. We are doubly ignorant. For Ned and the other Starks, Lyanna disappeared for "almost a year." For us, she goes missing after the Harrenhal Tourney - and doesn't turn up again until Ned dreams of finding her at the tower of joy. (So, is that a 2 year disappearance... or a 15 year disappearance?)

Also, for them to realize she's missing right away would mean they're in close proximity to her. He could have been somewhere else and then we have to include the time for ravens and messengers to get involved. Just because she disappears doesn't mean something wasn't going on before she disappeared.

[Metopheles]

What is still missing : Why the hell didn't Rhaegar or Lyanna return and stop the rebellion? Did Lyanna run away because she feared getting married off to Robert? Or did she run away, then saw his attempt to save her and feared she would then be married off to this brute?

I think we could look into that. Lyanna's way. What if she was the one that started it all. Her idea. We only go with Rhaegar being the culprit.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Also, for them to realize she's missing right away would mean they're in close proximity to her. He could have been somewhere else and then we have to include the time for ravens and messengers to get involved. Just because she disappears doesn't mean something wasn't going on before she disappeared.

Right. And on top of that, you have to consider the possibility that Brandon heard something that wasn't necessarily true. Who told him Lyanna had gone missing? Where did that information come from? Was Lyanna actually missing? Or was somebody yanking strings, dealing in misinformation, manufacturing conflict? In other words... where was Petyr Baelish at the time?

[Starks Among Us]

What is still missing : Why the hell didn't Rhaegar or Lyanna return and stop the rebellion? Did Lyanna run away because she feared getting married off to Robert? Or did she run away, then saw his attempt to save her and feared she would then be married off to this brute?

I think we could look into that. Lyanna's way. What if she was the one that started it all. Her idea. We only go with Rhaegar being the culprit.

It would be interesting to think out Lyanna's potential thought processes....

[Rill Redthorn]

Wouldn't it be crazy if it comes out it was all Lyanna's idea ? She sees Rhaegar, older than her, has his own castle (two even) and has all the money, could her buy nice things, has his own horse (equal to "has a car").. so she is the one who wants to get away from her dull life and live adventurous and dangerous. Riding through the countryside and learning to fight, and be accepted and loved for that. We only see that Rhaegar gives her a rose. Maybe she was the one who ran up to him and said "Let's ride". I would like that.

I don't think that's crazy at all, I think that's smack on the money. Lyanna instigated the whole thing.

I believe it's stated that Lyanna "went missing" after Rhaegar paid a visit to Winterfell -- as in, he went there on a state visit of some kind, the he left, and when Rickard Stark when looking for his daughter, she wasn't there any more. Since Rhaegar had impulsively proclaimed his love for Lyanna with that wreath of blue roses at the Harrenhal tourney, "She left with Rhaegar's entourage, either willingly or unwillingly" seemed like a perfectly reasonable conclusion for Rickard Stark to draw. So he gets some of his people together and rides south to try and catch up with that group, encounters Brandon, tells Brandon what's up, and Brandon, being the hothead that he was, decides he's going to deal with the situation by storming into Aerys' throne room and making wild accusations and calling for the head of the Crown Prince. Brandon was the "wild wolf", after all, who always thought he knew exactly what needed to be done, and acted on it.

I envision dialogue running like this (with a contemporary flavor):

(Scene: Back in Winterfell after the Harrenhal Tourney at some point. Rhaegar and Lyanna have been exchanging letters and are completely smitten with each other. Rhaegar has suggested to Lyanna that he could take her as a second wife as the Targs used to do. Lyanna is okay with this -- probably he's been telling her all about the prophecies and how his three Targaryen Dragon children are going to save the world together, and she's gotten caught up in his obsession.)

Lyanna: "Dad! Great news! Crown Prince Rhaegar wants to marry me -- your grandchildren will be royal, isn't that great? He's coming to Winterfell to make the offer official!"

Rickard: [Long pause.] "Lyanna dear, that's a child's fantasy. He's already married. He can't possibly set aside Elia of Dorne. I'm sorry. I'll find you another match with a good man who will make you happy, I promise."

Lyanna: "It's okay, Dad. Rhaegar's explained it all to me. It's legal for the Targaryens to take multiple spouses. And he and Elia don't really love each other anyway, plus she's barren. I mean they can't even have sex any more because she could die if she gets pregnant again. Plus I love him. So it'll be fine!"

Rickard: [Longer pause.] "Lyanna. You are my only daughter. You are not going to marry a bigamist, even if he is the Crown Prince. We are Starks. We follow the Old Ways."

Lyanna: "But...Dad...I...he...we really love each other. I mean, like really. I'll be Queen, Dad! Sort of. It's like Aegon with Rhaenys and Visenya! I'm Visenya of course. She was kickass."

Rickard: "We are not discussing this any further! You go right to your room, young lady, and I don't want to hear one more word about this!"

Lyanna: "But...Dad! SO NOT FAIR!" [Runs out.]

(Later, also in Winterfell. Rickard visits his daughter, who hasn't been speaking to him all week.)

Rickard: "Lyanna, dear. I've been thinking about that...matter...we talked about last week, and I've decided you are right, it's time you were wed..."

Lyanna: "Oh Dad, thank you so much! We'll be so happy together!"

Rickard: "...Let me finish. Wed, yes. To a good man, from a good family, with excellent prospects. Your brother's best friend, Robert -- remember him? You met him when you visited Ned in the Vale? Tall boy, handsome, excellent build, great laugh? -- he's made an offer for your hand and I've accepted it. You'll be wed within the year."

Lyanna: [blank stare] "...Robert?...You mean, Robert Baratheon?"

Rickard: "Yes, the heir to the Storm Lands. You and the children will never want for anything. It's a good match and will cement the friendship between our noble houses."

Lyanna: [still staring blankly]: "Robert? The boy the whores of the Vale call Old Faithful and My Retirement Plan and the Single-point Buck? The boy who got drunk and ran through the Eyrie with a dog in his arms, kissing her and hollering "Mine is the Furry!" ? THAT Robert?"

Rickard: "Well, ah, yes...I understand he is ...ah...high-spirited. And...vigorous. But at least we know he can give you children!"

Lyanna: [Muttering] "Rhaegar will give me children. Royal dragon children. Prophesied Hero Children."

Rickard: "What was that??"

Lyanna: "...Nothing. Dad, I don't want to marry Robert Baratheon! I'd rather die!"

Rickard: "It's already settled. I'm the Stark in Winterfell and I call the shots around here. It's really for the best, dear. You'll be happier this way."

Lyanna: [silence.]

(Later: Rhaegar visits Winterfell to ask for Lyanna's hand.)

Rhaegar: "Lord Stark, I realize this is an ....unusual...offer. But I make it in good faith. I have had my maesters examine the laws, and there is precedent. It will be a legal marriage. My children with Lyanna will be royal dragons, Princes and Princesses, the boys in line for the succession to the Iron Throne right after my firstborn, Aegon."

Rickard: "Ah, well, it's a very...ah...generous offer, Prince Rhaegar, and of course I mean no disrespect to the royal family, but you see....Lyanna's hand is already spoken for. She will be marrying Robert Baratheon before the year is out. It's been signed and sealed. I'm very sorry you came all this way for nothing."

Rhaegar: [blank stare] "Lyanna and ...Robert? ...My cousin Robert? The one who has given an entirely new meaning to the term stag party? That Robert?"

Rickard: "Yes. It's settled. Enjoy the hospitality of my castle for the night, please, Prince Rhaegar." [Muttering] "Which does not include my daughter. And don't let the portcullis hit you in the butt on your way out, either."

(Later that night, in the guest quarters, there's a knock at Rhaegar's window.)

Lyanna: "Rhae! It's me! Let me in, it's cold out here!"

Rhaegar: "Lyanna, what are you doing out on the window ledge?"

Lyanna: "Dad posted seven Septas at my door to keep me in my room tonight. None of them can climb worth a damn. Look, Rhae, you have to get me out of here. He wants me to marry Robert!"

Rhaegar: "I heard. That's...unfortunate...but he is your father. I can't really go against his wishes. I'll write some more letters but --"

Lyanna: "Just get me out of here!"

Rhaegar: "Uh...what?"

Lyanna: "I packed my stuff. I don't need much. I've got my plain riding clothes on and my horse is saddled. I'll just blend in with the tail of your retinue when you head out tomorrow. It'll be easy."

Rhaegar: "Uh...With Dad's illness getting worse and the political situation so tricky I'm not sure that's a good --"

Lyanna: "Rhaegar, I love you, I really do, but for once could you not overthink?!"

Rhaegar: [sighs] "Yeah, okay, I can't deal with the idea of you and Robert together either. Every time he visits King's Landing he makes jokes about me being The Prince Formerly Known as Prince and asks me if I plan to have a purple reign...like I haven't heard that a hundred times before. Not that it was funny the first time either. But...I have a really bad feeling about this."

Lyanna: "Oh, you have a bad feeling about everything, Rhae. Just kiss me, okay?"

----------

...Or something like that. :cool4:

[King Benjen II]

The reason that I doubt Starfall was involved, is that Eddard seems to pick up her trail after the Storm End's siege which makes me think her trail may have brought her and her companions through the Stormlands

If she was at Starfall for 8 months then word could have spread.

Ned could've been told Starfall and found her on his way in ToJ.

[King Benjen II]

My own trouble with the Starfall scenario is that if even one unauthorized person saw this pregnant girl who looks exactly like a Stark, whooosssshhh... out into the world that secret goes, immediately, to explain her disappearance, which was certainly known all over Westeros by that time.

People see:

1. What they want/expect to see

2. What they are capable of seeing

She could have hidden in some manner.

[JNR]

People see:

1. What they want/expect to see

2. What they are capable of seeing

Sure. The R+L=J thread has demonstrated that for 78 iterations so far.

It's conceivable Lyanna could have been at Starfall for an extended period without being detected by any but a tiny few. I just find it easier to believe she spent her time in less challenging locations.

However, I do think Starfall is very relevant to her story.

[King Benjen II]

Yes, but there's the "disappearance," and then there's the disappearance. In other words... Brandon stormed the Red Keep because someone told him Lyanna was no longer where she was supposed to be (and Rhaegar was at fault). But WE (Martin's readers) don't even know where Brandon thought Lyanna was supposed to be. We are doubly ignorant. For Ned and the other Starks, Lyanna disappeared for "almost a year." For us, she goes missing after the Harrenhal Tourney - and doesn't turn up again until Ned dreams of finding her at the tower of joy. (So, is that a 2 year disappearance... or a 15 year disappearance?)

So theoritically ToJ could have taken place a week before AGOT Bran I? Is that what you're saying?

[King Benjen II]

Sure. The R+L=J thread has demonstrated that for 78 iterations so far.

It's conceivable Lyanna could have been at Starfall for an extended period without being detected by any but a tiny few. I just find it easier to believe she spent her time in less challenging locations.

However, I do think Starfall is very relevant to her story.

Personally I think she kept moving around to different places. Hardly a stretch for someone trying to hide/someone trying to hide someone.