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The Blackfish's trajectory


hollowcrown

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The main reason I think he's heading for the Vale is that it's the most interesting place from a storytelling view. It would plunge the Blackfish into the middle of a complex stituation involving Littlefinger, the Vale lords, Sansa and Sweetrobin.


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The main reason I think he's heading for the Vale is that it's the most interesting place from a storytelling view. It would plunge the Blackfish into the middle of a complex stituation involving Littlefinger, the Vale lords, Sansa and Sweetrobin.

It would certainly help Sansa with empowering herself.

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It would certainly help Sansa with empowering herself.

You're right, it finally gives Sansa someone she can trust who can get her out of her current situation, which means LF might not want to keep him around. I'm convinced that LF will end up killing him.

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Yeah the Blackfish could be the decider. It could give Sansa a lot of agency if one of her family members shows up, and she could make some political moves from it. Ever since Ned's death she hasn't been around anyone who she can truly trust - the Blackfish is a loyal man, close to Robb and to her mother Catelyn, so with the martial strength of the Blackfish as a respected commander of forces with ties to the Vale, and Sweetrobin as a "puppet" so to speak, we might see the start of an alliance and the Vale forces finally entering the war, that's if they can get rid of Littlefinger.



Blackfish's arrival might just give Sansa the strength to speak up and remove Petyr.


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I have a question to all those that think that the blackfish is headed to the Vale. Why? What possible motivation could have for running to the Vale? He doesn't know that his grand niece is there, he knows that Lysa is dead, Littlefinger is there and I don't think that the Blackfish is going to tango with Littlefinger just yet he doesn't have the strength.



Least everyone forget that he's got 2 knights that he grew up with and have served his family for the past 40years. Why go to the Vale ? Those two knights have to stop by Gullstown on their way to the Wall, which is a hop skip and a jump from Runestone where Yron Royce is stewing over his slights and Littlefingers' manipulations. So I ask again why go to the Vale? That actually would be one of the places that people actually look as it's one of his old stomping grounds. He did serve as the guard of the bloody gate the entire time that Jon and Lysa were married. Meaning he would are ready know the men and women for his knights need to talk to about supporting the Starks and their endevours to tear the Lannisters a new asshole. He doesn't need to be there himself.



Then there is this he doesn't need to head to GW, Howland Reed is a staurch supporter of the Starks and knows what he's doing. He doesn't need the Blackfish telling him how to run his swamp! Nor are the canngonman strong enough to take the Twins. They like to fight from the shadows not up close nor are they are people to lay siege to the Twins.



Lady Stoneheart can take the Twins by surprise if she's smart and captures Jamie's envoy that's headed to the twins about the prisoners release to the crown. That's the opportunity to get the Northern lords free and back north to rally support for Jon. Those lords that were taken are some of Robbs staunches supporters and would follow the letter of the will. They might no like the elevation of a bastard but the are nothing if not dutiful. So once again no the blackfish is not going to GW.



Has anyone actually looked at a map. Didn't Jamie say that he escaped down the Tumblestone? Where does that river lead? West! He's trailing and tracking his nephew. Not to help him escape. The west is the last place that anyone would think to look for the Blackfish. So long as he keeps his distance and he's not Edmure so I think it possible his plan would go off with as few hitches as possible. Edmure Tully was way to smug when his uncle escaped almost like he was in on one of Theon's secrets. Then there is Edmure's reaction you have no idea how much I hate seeing you seating in my father's seat. So fair exchange is no robbery. The lannisters stole Riverrun, they decided to steal Casterly Rock from the inside.



I'm of the mind that between the Blackfish, Lady Stoneheart, brotherhood, small folks and whores they are going to bring the Westernlands to their knees.


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You're right, it finally gives Sansa someone she can trust who can get her out of her current situation, which means LF might not want to keep him around. I'm convinced that LF will end up killing him.

The Blackfish supporting Sansa gives her instant credibility. He is a seasoned and amazing battlecommander, and well respected by friends and foes alike. He is loyal to the bone, and it would not take Sansa long to realize this. I know that LF would instantly recognize the danger here, and would want him killed, but I just do not see his fate ending with LF.

Sansa needs a credible realistic way to rise, and a Blackfish scenario gives her that. It is not the only scenario though, but it is one for sure.

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The Blackfish supporting Sansa gives her instant credibility. He is a seasoned and amazing battlecommander, and well respected by friends and foes alike. He is loyal to the bone, and it would not take Sansa long to realize this. I know that LF would instantly recognize the danger here, and would want him killed, but I just do not see his fate ending with LF.

Sansa needs a credible realistic way to rise, and a Blackfish scenario gives her that. It is not the only scenario though, but it is one for sure.

What are the words of house Tully again I forget? Family Honor Duty. Lastly have you forgotten some small detail, SANSA STARK ON PAPER AT LEAST IS A LANNISTER!

He doesn't know that Sansa is in the Vale first of all, nor does he even know what she looks like.

The Blackfish's family Robb left him with the task of Jon and his will. His' honor bound to make his king's last request a fact getting news and word that Robb made Jon his heir. He personally excluded Sansa from the succession because she's a lannister this doesn't help the northern cause it hinders it. The imp isn't dead! So for all tents and purposes she's a Lannister and the North will not bend their knees to a Stark/Lannister female heir. I don't care who is championing her cause.

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Agreed. Most likely place for him to be captured is on his way to the neck- where everyone likely supposes he will go.




Lol, this is probably the only option that no one sees coming. The Vale, Riverrun, following Edmure and loyal Riverlords are the options everyone considers. The Neck comes out of freaking nowhere.






The main reason I think he's heading for the Vale is that it's the most interesting place from a storytelling view. It would plunge the Blackfish into the middle of a complex stituation involving Littlefinger, the Vale lords, Sansa and Sweetrobin.




The Neck would be a lot more interesting. You get HR, GG, MM, Edric Dayne, a possible raid on the Twins, etc.



In the Vale (if he ever get's there, which is highly unlikely) LF would just have him killed, because he can't have Sansa trust someone else.


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What are the words of house Tully again I forget? Family Honor Duty. Lastly have you forgotten some small detail, SANSA STARK ON PAPER AT LEAST IS A LANNISTER!

He doesn't know that Sansa is in the Vale first of all, nor does he even know what she looks like.

The Blackfish's family Robb left him with the task of Jon and his will. His' honor bound to make his king's last request a fact getting news and word that Robb made Jon his heir. He personally excluded Sansa from the succession because she's a lannister this doesn't help the northern cause it hinders it. The imp isn't dead! So for all tents and purposes she's a Lannister and the North will not bend their knees to a Stark/Lannister female heir. I don't care who is championing her cause.

Family Duty Honor. Edmure would be first on that list, he trumps his "Duty" to Robb in your scenario.

I said that he can do one of three things. I am not sold on him going to the Vale, it is one of three paths that I can totally justify.

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Which is why I think him following his nephew over going to the Vale ? He knows where Edmure is he doesn't even know if Sansa still alive.



Your right about Edmure trumping Robb, but what if he's killing 2 birds with one stone. Stay with Edmure, help him overthrow the West from the inside out and bring the lannisters to their knees.


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Edmure and Riverrun are his priorities. Going to the Vale is risky and pointless. Going to the Neck is very dangerous. Joining with the BwB is likely. Hiding in Riverrun is my personal preference. Did Edmure start his journey west or is he waiting for Devan's marriage? If the latter is the case, then the RW 2.0 is the only concern of Blackfish.


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Which is why I think him following his nephew over going to the Vale ? He knows where Edmure is he doesn't even know if Sansa still alive.

Your right about Edmure trumping Robb, but what if he's killing 2 birds with one stone. Stay with Edmure, help him overthrow the West from the inside out and bring the lannisters to their knees.

Him going to the Vale has little to do with him knowing Sansa is there... it would be to drum up enough support to enable rescuing Edmure and reclaiming RR. Same goes for the BwB and Neck scenarios.

It was his job to guard the gate for twenty years, he would know every way into the Vale, so it remains just as possible.

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Edmure left the Trident shortly after his uncle went missing and he's in the company of the Warden of the Casterly Rock. So there is that...






Him going to the Vale has little to do with him knowing Sansa is there... it would be to drum up enough support to enable rescuing Edmure and reclaiming RR. Same goes for the BwB and Neck scenarios.



It was his job to guard the gate for twenty years, he would know every way into the Vale, so it remains just as possible.




Once again The Blackfish doesn't have to go the the Vale himself to get this accomplished. He sent 2 men to the wall. Those two men have served at Riverrun almost as long as the Blackfish has been alive. They have to stop at Gullstown which is about a half day's ride from Runestones, the seat of the more powerful of the Royces. He served as the captian of one of those gate in the Vale. He only need to send these 2 knights to speak with his voice. Plus it would draw less attention if Royce is tying to undermind littlefinger. The blackfish has little need to tango with Petyr whom it would seem is hand and glove with the Lannisters. Head to the Vale how long do you think that it would be a secret that the blackfish was in the vale and having the potential to spoil all of Littlefingers plans. So no, he's not headed to the Vale, he as the best raven's in the world. Two humans that can speak his words and negotiate and not just parrot his words. It took almost all day for them to surrender the castle. It's not the big of a stretch the Brotherhood and stoneheart are going take care of the Wedding. While they are dealing with the wedding Edmure and the blackfish are sacking Casterly Rock. The Twins would get there's during the exchange of prisoners for the crown.


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Edmure and Riverrun are his priorities. Going to the Vale is risky and pointless. Going to the Neck is very dangerous. Joining with the BwB is likely. Hiding in Riverrun is my personal preference. Did Edmure start his journey west or is he waiting for Devan's marriage? If the latter is the case, then the RW 2.0 is the only concern of Blackfish.

The problem with this is that the Freys have left no stone unturned at Riverrun. He would have been discovered. Furthermore, the BF is not the most trusting of people. It just baffles me that people think that hardass BF of all people would trust his servants enough to keep hidden there.

On top of that, he gains nothing from staying at Riverrun. Even if he pulls a RW 2.0. (very unlikely), he would gain absolutely nothing. He could not hope to hold RR and the Freys would just send a replacement. At the same time, Edmure and the Tully heir are left high and dry. If the BF does anything, it should involve a familymember. That means Edmure (unlikely because no chance to succeed), Roslyn's child (Edmure probably asked to rescue her and he has the element of surprise there) or SR (unlikely since he would never get there and LF controls the Vale).

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Edmure left the Trident shortly after his uncle went missing and he's in the company of the Warden of the Casterly Rock. So there is that...

Once again The Blackfish doesn't have to go the the Vale himself to get this accomplished. He sent 2 men to the wall. Those two men have served at Riverrun almost as long as the Blackfish has been alive. They have to stop at Gullstown which is about a half day's ride from Runestones, the seat of the more powerful of the Royces. He served as the captian of one of those gate in the Vale. He only need to send these 2 knights to speak with his voice. Plus it would draw less attention if Royce is tying to undermind littlefinger. The blackfish has little need to tango with Petyr whom it would seem is hand and glove with the Lannisters. Head to the Vale how long do you think that it would be a secret that the blackfish was in the vale and having the potential to spoil all of Littlefingers plans. So no, he's not headed to the Vale, he as the best raven's in the world. Two humans that can speak his words and negotiate and not just parrot his words. It took almost all day for them to surrender the castle. It's not the big of a stretch the Brotherhood and stoneheart are going take care of the Wedding. While they are dealing with the wedding Edmure and the blackfish are sacking Casterly Rock. The Twins would get there's during the exchange of prisoners for the crown.

while these are fine speculations none of them conclusively rule anything else out, and are just as possible as any... see where I am going with this...

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What are the words of house Tully again I forget? Family Honor Duty. Lastly have you forgotten some small detail, SANSA STARK ON PAPER AT LEAST IS A LANNISTER!

He doesn't know that Sansa is in the Vale first of all, nor does he even know what she looks like.

The Blackfish's family Robb left him with the task of Jon and his will. His' honor bound to make his king's last request a fact getting news and word that Robb made Jon his heir. He personally excluded Sansa from the succession because she's a lannister this doesn't help the northern cause it hinders it. The imp isn't dead! So for all tents and purposes she's a Lannister and the North will not bend their knees to a Stark/Lannister female heir. I don't care who is championing her cause.

The marriage wasn't consummated, and it's widely known that she was coerced into it, so I don't think it will be a problem.

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So the fuck what! They are still married on paper. So for right now she is a lannister! The sole reason that robb denied her in the will was because of whom her husband was and he didn't want the imp in winterfell.



That's speculation at court that the marriage wasn't consummated. It would look pretty self serving for Sansa to show up demanding to be released from her marriage on the ground of non consummation. Only Sansa's maid's know for sure and aren't most of them dead or no longer in the capital?



How does she prove that she's still a virgin. She's highborn and the hymen wasn't made to with stand horseback riding. Cersei says that most high born ladies mostly gave their maidenheads to horses rather than a husband so there is that against her.



The IMP is not dead, so she isn't a widow and if Tyrion were to show up tomorrow he could claim his right as a husband and consummate the marriage. Then they are married for real.



So like I said, Sansa is politically dead in the north because of her marriage and her future marriage to Harry the Heir. Her tying to take back her birthright with foreign troops is not going to go over well with the Northern Lords. IF the north were to lose they become bannerman of the Vale in all but name. They would be conquered and there is nothing that knits a broken realm together quicker than a foreign army on it's shores. So please.....


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The most likely places for BF in my opinion are that he's dressed up in Lannister colors and heading into the west with the rest of the disintegrated Lannister army, or he's hiding somewhere in the Riverlands so he can dramatically kill some Freys and Lannisters. I think Tom O' Sevens gave Edmure some info about the BwB to give to the Blackfish. The thing about BF is that he is a complete badass. He was one of Jaime's heros as a kid, and is nearly (if not as) famous as Ser Barristan. He's bound to find out about one or more of the following events:

-Aegon VI Targaryen has taken Storm's End
-Euron Greyjoy has sacked (insert Reach city here)
-The Faith Militant is back

So lets explore these possibilities:

He's plotting against the Lannisters in the West

He'll know the war isn't over by a longshot, and join the Lannister army on it's way to KL when Cercei calls her banners, or he'll stay in the west and try to rescue Edmure/Roslin. If he dresses up as a Lannister foot soldier, I doubt anyone would recognize him, and he knows he could do plenty of damage from inside KL. He might find a way to ally himself with Lady Nym, or form his own rebel group inside KL. Varys would try to use him for his own ends if he figured out he was there. OTOH, if his plan is to rescue Edmure/Roslin, he may be aided by a contingent of the BwB, who he would have connected with after Edmure's message from Tom O' Sevens.

Riverrun runs Red.

The RW 2.0 idea has been discussed heavily, but it doesn't seem like a stretch that upon hearing this idea, Blackfish agrees to do his part. But what part would be the best for him to play? Say, for instance Blackfish is sighted two days ride from Riverrun on the eve of the wedding. Lord Emmon Frey would probably take the bait and send a decent sized force to capture/kill him, and get ambushed by the BwB/insurgent lords of the Riverlands, also leaving Riverrun with weakened defenses against the wedding massacre.

He could be hiding in RR, but I think he would go where he could do the most damage to his enemies, and the biggest advantage of him staying in RR is that he could rally the household servants to the BwB side, but that doesn't seem necessary.

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