The Blackfish's trajectory

[Northernmonkey]

So the fuck what! They are still married on paper. So for right now she is a lannister! The sole reason that robb denied her in the will was because of whom her husband was and he didn't want the imp in winterfell.

When Robb made his will Sansa was still in KL and married to Tyrion, so obviously he excluded her from the will. Now Tyrion's missing, presumed dead, and if he returns he'll be arrested straight away, so it isn't really an issue.

How does she prove that she's still a virgin. She's highborn and the hymen wasn't made to with stand horseback riding. Cersei says that most high born ladies mostly gave their maidenheads to horses rather than a husband so there is that against her.

There's a good chance that Sansa still has her maidenhead, and it's easily verified. If she still has it then there's no problem. Plus it's in the interests of everyone in the North/the Vale/the Riverlands for Sansa's marriage to be annulled so I see it happening fairly easily. And presumably LF thinks so too.

So like I said, Sansa is politically dead in the north because of her marriage and her future marriage to Harry the Heir. Her tying to take back her birthright with foreign troops is not going to go over well with the Northern Lords. IF the north were to lose they become bannerman of the Vale in all but name. They would be conquered and there is nothing that knits a broken realm together quicker than a foreign army on it's shores. So please.....

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. The Vale isn't a foreign country, it's another part of Westeros with which the North is closely aligned. If the Vale tries to help Sansa reclaim the North/Riverlands from the Boltons/Freys they would be welcomed with opened arms.

[the conquoring bastard25]

I like this but I think that the place to cause the most damage to the west is from the west. The head of Casterly Rock and many other western lords are heading home now that the war is over. He has no need to head south to ally himself with Aegon, the red wedding could be pulled off with out a hitch without him being there. The brotherhood has that aspect of the plan well in order.

If cat knows her business the Lords of the North could be used to sack the Twins from the inside. As Seaguard is no longer under siege and they do have a few longships. They could be sent to engage the bridge of the twins. While the brotherhood and trident lords engage the two towers and the northern lords could take care of those in the castle. The blackfish isn't needed to take care of this enterprise. The most likely place for the blackfish is to head west.

The power of the lannisters flows from their gold and from their very large army. Well the army is spent and divided. Some on the trident, some in the capital and only a reserve or token force left in the West. The west is vunerible right now as there is no strong figure head to keep them in their place. The leader of the west is with Edmure. Get him to surrender the castle and do a simatanious attack on the Golden Tooth and the west is done for. Use robb's widow to get at the casterly gold mines and start building a war chest out of Tywin's own money. Take all the lannisters hold dear.

Plus with the west having fallen it makes things interesting when Tyrion gets back to Westeros and want's his seat and it's in the hands of the Northern Alliance. Forcing Tyrion to have to deal with his old friend Jon Snow

[the conquoring bastard25]

When Robb made his will Sansa was still in KL and married to Tyrion, so obviously he excluded her from the will. Now Tyrion's missing, presumed dead, and if he returns he'll be arrested straight away, so it isn't really an issue.

There's a good chance that Sansa still has her maidenhead, and it's easily verified. If she still has it then there's no problem. Plus it's in the interests of everyone in the North/the Vale/the Riverlands for Sansa's marriage to be annulled so I see it happening fairly easily. And presumably LF thinks so too.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here. The Vale isn't a foreign country, it's another part of Westeros with which the North is closely aligned. If the Vale tries to help Sansa reclaim the North/Riverlands from the Boltons/Freys they would be welcomed with opened arms.

Tyrion is going to be arrested right on sight! Yeah okay. Did you look at the foreshadowing that Tyrion is going to leave the Vale a smoking waste land? When Tyrion gets back he's going to serve the Vale blood and fire using the mountain clans or did you forget that he's got friends in the mountain clans of the moon?

GRRM states that something tramatic was going to happen to miss Sansa Stark. Tyrion going back on his word and raping his wife would be tramatic enough don't you think?

Yes the Vale is a foreign territory. The Vale has never ruled over the North and leading an army to take back her birthright with a foreign army isn't going to go over well. IF the Vale wins using their own army against the North men that makes the North a vassal to the Vale. The North already tried to get back its independence, having them became vassals of the vale is a major step backwards.

It's not in the best interest of the North and the Trident for her marriage to be nulled. IT make a more interesting story if she has to stay lady of lannister.

1)Her marriage was made so that Tyrion could get a child on her and have Winterfell. Having them stay married it could work in reverse her marriage could be the ground that the North needs to lay claim to Casterly Rock after the Trident Smashes the remain of the western forces. (from a pet project of mine I don't think the Blackfish is headed to the Vale but west of cause a lot of trouble in the west and for the Lannisters.)

2)Keeping them married when Tyrion gets home to claim his birthright and finds it in the hands of his loving wife's family. Meaning he's going to have to deal with his friend again Jon Snow. The marriage and them having Casterly Rock is a good reason for Tyrion to have to return to the Wall.

3) Jon Snow is being set up to parallel his forefather Daeron I and II. The second knew that the happiness of two was not worth the safety of the realm. Sansa and Tyrion may not love one another but their marriage brings the West under the North in a more binding way than just by conquest but by marriage and blood.

[Mourneblade]

Tyrion is going to be arrested right on sight! Yeah okay. Did you look at the foreshadowing that Tyrion is going to leave the Vale a smoking waste land? When Tyrion gets back he's going to serve the Vale blood and fire using the mountain clans or did you forget that he's got friends in the mountain clans of the moon?

GRRM states that something tramatic was going to happen to miss Sansa Stark. Tyrion going back on his word and raping his wife would be tramatic enough don't you think?

Yes the Vale is a foreign territory. The Vale has never ruled over the North and leading an army to take back her birthright with a foreign army isn't going to go over well. IF the Vale wins using their own army against the North men that makes the North a vassal to the Vale. The North already tried to get back its independence, having them became vassals of the vale is a major step backwards.

It's not in the best interest of the North and the Trident for her marriage to be nulled. IT make a more interesting story if she has to stay lady of lannister.

1)Her marriage was made so that Tyrion could get a child on her and have Winterfell. Having them stay married it could work in reverse her marriage could be the ground that the North needs to lay claim to Casterly Rock after the Trident Smashes the remain of the western forces. (from a pet project of mine I don't think the Blackfish is headed to the Vale but west of cause a lot of trouble in the west and for the Lannisters.)

2)Keeping them married when Tyrion gets home to claim his birthright and finds it in the hands of his loving wife's family. Meaning he's going to have to deal with his friend again Jon Snow. The marriage and them having Casterly Rock is a good reason for Tyrion to have to return to the Wall.

3) Jon Snow is being set up to parallel his forefather Daeron I and II. The second knew that the happiness of two was not worth the safety of the realm. Sansa and Tyrion may not love one another but their marriage brings the West under the North in a more binding way than just by conquest but by marriage and blood.

Wow I now completely understand where you are coming from and you are completely blinded by your Sansa hate.... thats fine, but were done debating..

[Leonardo]

Yeah the Blackfish could be the decider. It could give Sansa a lot of agency if one of her family members shows up, and she could make some political moves from it. Ever since Ned's death she hasn't been around anyone who she can truly trust - the Blackfish is a loyal man, close to Robb and to her mother Catelyn, so with the martial strength of the Blackfish as a respected commander of forces with ties to the Vale, and Sweetrobin as a "puppet" so to speak, we might see the start of an alliance and the Vale forces finally entering the war, that's if they can get rid of Littlefinger.

Blackfish's arrival might just give Sansa the strength to speak up and remove Petyr.

Why would LF do that though?

He is Lord Paramount of the Vale, and the only way he can ever claim that is with the Vale's army. If BFish can rally the Vale he's basically doing all LF's work for him, and leading the armies spectacularly as well.

[Northernmonkey]

the conquoring bastard25 -

You seem to be forgetting that the Northerners want to put a Stark back in Winterfell and to get rid of the Boltons. If Sansa comes with a Vale army to reclaim Winterfell and the North they would be welcomed with open arms.

And Sansa and Tyrion's marriage is over. Neither of them wants to be married, and nobody in the North, The Vale or the Riverlands wants them to be married.

[I'll pay the iron price]

Mr Fish is surely headed back to Riverrun.

It IS his families abode after all

Hoster is dead and Edmure captive means he is senior Tully

[aryagonnakill#2]

As only 2 other people have posted, I believe he hid in Riverrun. In addition to the fact that it is his home and the fact that Edmure was alone with Tom O' Sevens before he was sent into Riverrun to speak with the Blackfish, is simple geography. Using the map in the mapbook we can see that it is hundreds of miles to any of the other places people have suggested, with the only exception being the BWB. The swamps of the Neck are more than 300 miles away across occupied territory, the Eyrie is a good 600 miles, the mountains of the moon are the largest in westeros, its winter and the mountain clans are going wild. There is also the temperature of the water, it was snowing shortly after this event took place, meaning the water would like have been in the 40's, 50's at best because we know it was a long fall and its not like it went from 80 to freezing like it can do in the northern United States. Finally, why else was the hidey hole included in the Griffen Reborn chapter at the end of Dance.

Also, someone on the 2nd page posted that the river that the BF escaped in flowed west, thats wrong. Even if he did jump into the river that river flowed east.

[the conquoring bastard25]

the conquoring bastard25 -

You seem to be forgetting that the Northerners want to put a Stark back in Winterfell and to get rid of the Boltons. If Sansa comes with a Vale army to reclaim Winterfell and the North they would be welcomed with open arms.

And Sansa and Tyrion's marriage is over. Neither of them wants to be married, and nobody in the North, The Vale or the Riverlands wants them to be married.

The Vale can't be used to reclaim the North it just can't. The north has never fallen. If the north falls or is conquered because that's what it would be a conquest with an army from the Vale the North would be beholden to the Vale and its leader. I don't think that the North would like that! I just can't see them stepping back and say oh well Sansa Stark Lannister Haryding is here and we should bend the knee. The Vale would be seen as an invading force.

The north has enough contenders for the northern seat without adding in the mix Sansa Stark.There is a will that says that Jon is heir. But Manderly has a plan to bring Rickon back to the North and have him act as his puppet king and him the true ruler.

You are ignoring the far reaching consequences that comes from that marriage. The marriage gives the north a legal indisputable claim the Casterly Rock. Forced or not they are married. The lannisters boast is a Lannister always pays its debts. Well Casterly Rock in the hands of the north would be paying their debt. They forced the marriage down the northerns throats now the North can force the same marriage down their throats and they would be too weak to do anything about it. They have just spent what almost 60,000 men, they are almost tapped. The North however just got a bunch of new swords in the form of the wildlings and there are going to need some where. The northern lords aren't going to want them on their lands. Nor are they going to be welcomed in the Trident. Placing them in the west would be a smart move and Mel did say they were doom race. Having to accept the rules of Westeros and intergrating into that society would do just that. PLacing an army that is beholden solely to Jon in enemy territory would be a brilliant move.

A will that discludes Sansa because of her lannister marriage, her marrying Harry isn't going to help her cause. The North Remembers and they are going to remember that the Vale did nothing to help there cause after all their pleading.

Then there is Littlefinger, whom is from the vale, lord of the trident and up jumped by the Lannisters. Her coming north with Littlefinger isn't going to win her any favors either.

[Northernmonkey]

The Vale can't be used to reclaim the North it just can't. The north has never fallen. If the north falls or is conquered because that's what it would be a conquest with an army from the Vale the North would be beholden to the Vale and its leader. I don't think that the North would like that! I just can't see them stepping back and say oh well Sansa Stark Lannister Haryding is here and we should bend the knee. The Vale would be seen as an invading force.

They don't have to take over the entire North, they just have to get rid of the Boltons and the Freys. And it wouldn't be just the Vale forces - the Manderley's, Umbers, Mormonts etc. would quickly join them.

[the conquoring bastard25]

more than likely Stannis and the northern are going to handle that. There won't be any Bolton's for Sansa Vale army to overthrow. Even if you disregard the GNC and just focus on Stannis, he's got a plan and as much as I hate stannis I wouldn't bet against him right now. no one even thought he was going to reach winterfell. Please don't bring up the pink letter, there are so many inconsistacy in the letter it's not even funny. So once again Sansa Stark Lannster Haryding should not try and take the North. Let her stay in the Vale and wait for a her loving husband to show up.

[hollowcrown]

Why would LF do that though?

He is Lord Paramount of the Vale, and the only way he can ever claim that is with the Vale's army. If BFish can rally the Vale he's basically doing all LF's work for him, and leading the armies spectacularly as well.

Why would LF do what?

If Blackfish rallies the Vale forces, being a well known and well liked commander in the area, to Sansa's side, they can dispose of Littlefinger together.

[juanml82]

I have a question to all those that think that the blackfish is headed to the Vale. Why? What possible motivation could have for running to the Vale? He doesn't know that his grand niece is there, he knows that Lysa is dead, Littlefinger is there and I don't think that the Blackfish is going to tango with Littlefinger just yet he doesn't have the strength.

To unleash the Knights of the Vale. It's a hard gamble to win, but it pays enormously compared with GW or the BWB.

The Blackfish supporting Sansa gives her instant credibility. He is a seasoned and amazing battlecommander, and well respected by friends and foes alike. He is loyal to the bone, and it would not take Sansa long to realize this. I know that LF would instantly recognize the danger here, and would want him killed, but I just do not see his fate ending with LF.

Sansa needs a credible realistic way to rise, and a Blackfish scenario gives her that. It is not the only scenario though, but it is one for sure.

And it's too easy and too soon for Sansa.

So the fuck what! They are still married on paper. So for right now she is a lannister! The sole reason that robb denied her in the will was because of whom her husband was and he didn't want the imp in winterfell.

That's speculation at court that the marriage wasn't consummated. It would look pretty self serving for Sansa to show up demanding to be released from her marriage on the ground of non consummation. Only Sansa's maid's know for sure and aren't most of them dead or no longer in the capital?

How does she prove that she's still a virgin. She's highborn and the hymen wasn't made to with stand horseback riding. Cersei says that most high born ladies mostly gave their maidenheads to horses rather than a husband so there is that against her.

The IMP is not dead, so she isn't a widow and if Tyrion were to show up tomorrow he could claim his right as a husband and consummate the marriage. Then they are married for real.

So like I said, Sansa is politically dead in the north because of her marriage and her future marriage to Harry the Heir. Her tying to take back her birthright with foreign troops is not going to go over well with the Northern Lords. IF the north were to lose they become bannerman of the Vale in all but name. They would be conquered and there is nothing that knits a broken realm together quicker than a foreign army on it's shores. So please.....

The North can receive Sansa with open arms and, should Tyrion Lannister appears and wants to claim Winterfell, they can let him to freeze to death outside the walls.

The most likely places for BF in my opinion are that he's dressed up in Lannister colors and heading into the west with the rest of the disintegrated Lannister army, or he's hiding somewhere in the Riverlands so he can dramatically kill some Freys and Lannisters. I think Tom O' Sevens gave Edmure some info about the BwB to give to the Blackfish. The thing about BF is that he is a complete badass. He was one of Jaime's heros as a kid, and is nearly (if not as) famous as Ser Barristan. He's bound to find out about one or more of the following events:

-Aegon VI Targaryen has taken Storm's End

-Euron Greyjoy has sacked (insert Reach city here)

-The Faith Militant is back

So lets explore these possibilities:

He's plotting against the Lannisters in the West

He'll know the war isn't over by a longshot, and join the Lannister army on it's way to KL when Cercei calls her banners, or he'll stay in the west and try to rescue Edmure/Roslin. If he dresses up as a Lannister foot soldier, I doubt anyone would recognize him, and he knows he could do plenty of damage from inside KL. He might find a way to ally himself with Lady Nym, or form his own rebel group inside KL. Varys would try to use him for his own ends if he figured out he was there. OTOH, if his plan is to rescue Edmure/Roslin, he may be aided by a contingent of the BwB, who he would have connected with after Edmure's message from Tom O' Sevens.

Riverrun runs Red.

The RW 2.0 idea has been discussed heavily, but it doesn't seem like a stretch that upon hearing this idea, Blackfish agrees to do his part. But what part would be the best for him to play? Say, for instance Blackfish is sighted two days ride from Riverrun on the eve of the wedding. Lord Emmon Frey would probably take the bait and send a decent sized force to capture/kill him, and get ambushed by the BwB/insurgent lords of the Riverlands, also leaving Riverrun with weakened defenses against the wedding massacre.

He could be hiding in RR, but I think he would go where he could do the most damage to his enemies, and the biggest advantage of him staying in RR is that he could rally the household servants to the BwB side, but that doesn't seem necessary.

He can't hide among the rest of the Lannister army. The common soldiers next to him will recognize him as someone who wasn't with them just days ago. He could join as a free rider, but the Lannisters should be suspicious of any sellsword by now (then again, Westerosis aren't known for their intelligence)

Why would LF do what?

If Blackfish rallies the Vale forces, being a well known and well liked commander in the area, to Sansa's side, they can dispose of Littlefinger together.

And why would they want to dispose of Littlefinger? Remember, they haven't read the books.

[Lee-Sensei]

The Vale can't be used to reclaim the North it just can't. The north has never fallen. If the north falls or is conquered because that's what it would be a conquest with an army from the Vale the North would be beholden to the Vale and its leader. I don't think that the North would like that! I just can't see them stepping back and say oh well Sansa Stark Lannister Haryding is here and we should bend the knee. The Vale would be seen as an invading force.

The north has enough contenders for the northern seat without adding in the mix Sansa Stark.There is a will that says that Jon is heir. But Manderly has a plan to bring Rickon back to the North and have him act as his puppet king and him the true ruler.

You are ignoring the far reaching consequences that comes from that marriage. The marriage gives the north a legal indisputable claim the Casterly Rock. Forced or not they are married. The lannisters boast is a Lannister always pays its debts. Well Casterly Rock in the hands of the north would be paying their debt. They forced the marriage down the northerns throats now the North can force the same marriage down their throats and they would be too weak to do anything about it. They have just spent what almost 60,000 men, they are almost tapped. The North however just got a bunch of new swords in the form of the wildlings and there are going to need some where. The northern lords aren't going to want them on their lands. Nor are they going to be welcomed in the Trident. Placing them in the west would be a smart move and Mel did say they were doom race. Having to accept the rules of Westeros and intergrating into that society would do just that. PLacing an army that is beholden solely to Jon in enemy territory would be a brilliant move.

A will that discludes Sansa because of her lannister marriage, her marrying Harry isn't going to help her cause. The North Remembers and they are going to remember that the Vale did nothing to help there cause after all their pleading.

Then there is Littlefinger, whom is from the vale, lord of the trident and up jumped by the Lannisters. Her coming north with Littlefinger isn't going to win her any favors either.

Why is it ok for the north to rule the vale but not the other way around.

[Khal Pod]

Either Greywater Watch or The Bloody Gate would be great IMO. Both offer really cool possibilities going forward. The only reason I would lean toward the Vale (in preference) would be that we actually have a POV character there and would be able to see how it shakes out

[the conquoring bastard25]

In this post did I say anything about the Vale being ruled by the North now did I? I think I suggest that the north use the marriage to stake their claim on Casterly Rock as Tyrion by all the laws of Westeros is the Lord of Casterly Rock. I suggested that the North make the Lannisters pay their debts and use the marriage to their advantage. I said nothing about the Vale being ruled by the North.

Also, it the North gathering swords to invade their home land? OR would it be the other way around?

[Lee-Sensei]

In this post did I say anything about the Vale being ruled by the North now did I? I think I suggest that the north use the marriage to stake their claim on Casterly Rock as Tyrion by all the laws of Westeros is the Lord of Casterly Rock. I suggested that the North make the Lannisters pay their debts and use the marriage to their advantage. I said nothing about the Vale being ruled by the North.

Also, it the North gathering swords to invade their home land? OR would it be the other way around?

But you have.

[the conquoring bastard25]

I have made that claim yes, but I'm not claiming that right now am I? Yet if you want to play ball lets go :cool4:

I think that Petyr's plan doesn't consist of killing SweetRobin instead I think he is going to want to have him declared unfit to rule.

The singer, Sansa remakes when she sees him again that his fingers looked to be have taken but, he had his hand broken when the horse fell on him all the way back in AGOT. There is a feast planned when the arrive at the bottom of the mountain and the Maester said that it might be too much, also that the music would distress the boy. Sansa counters that it's not music but singing. I bet that when they do have that feast there will be a singer present to irritate Sweetrobin and make him go into some sort of fit. The Vale has known for sometime that Sweetrobin might not beable to inherit his father's seat because he's sickly and weak. There was talk about this way back in the first book.

The young falcon and littlefinger describes him is the perfect substitute. Yet there has been foreshadowing that the Vale is going to get a taste of a lannister paying his debts. Tyrion I think is going to head to the Vale. For several reasons but the most important is that his wife is there and I have a notion that the Fat Man and Littlefinger have a connection. I'm sure you've read me say that before. Littlefinger made an enemy of the Imp when he said that it was his knife that was sent to slit bran's throat. By all account it's Tyrion not Jamie that is Tywin's heir that hes the most like his father. So I think that when he gets back like he said in AGOT he was going to leave the vale a smoking ruin.

This is where things get tricky, IF Tyrion were to wipe out say Robin, Harry and the uncouth Arryns, that leaves a major power vaccum. The starks are related to half of the lords that were against Littlefingers rule in the first place. Yet just like in the north, the Arryns have been intermarrying in the Vale for generations. Jon Snow whom if he's related to Rhaegar Targeryen would have blood of the falcon running though is veins yes?

Al

[the conquoring bastard25]

If one of the houses of the Vale gets the seat of Arryn it would be blood in the streets because all of them have arryn blood and they can claim that the seat should go to them. So making a stark with Arryn blood, the man raised by a man they knew since he was what 10, who could give them justice for their fallen lord, if Casterly Rock falls like I think that it is.

Jon Snow could be like at the wall when he was chosen for the office of the LC of the Watch. He was an appeasement candidate. He's got the right blood, he's grew up as a high lord's bastard, he's male and he's old enough to rule. That's why I think that the Vale is going to be ruled by the Starks.

Then is that bit from AGOT about the roads not taken. Jon is standing on the Kingsroad, thinking that the Vale, Casterly Rock, Mountain's of Dorne, isles of Braavos and isles of faces were down that road. Well Casterly Rock might fall into his hands because his brother's uncle is being shipped there right now, the Vale because of his blood, Dorne is where he was born and Dawn still is. Then the isles may be where his parents married and lastly Ayra happened be in Braavos right now. Those are some of my reasons.

[Lee-Sensei]

If one of the houses of the Vale gets the seat of Arryn it would be blood in the streets because all of them have arryn blood and they can claim that the seat should go to them. So making a stark with Arryn blood, the man raised by a man they knew since he was what 10, who could give them justice for their fallen lord, if Casterly Rock falls like I think that it is.

Jon Snow could be like at the wall when he was chosen for the office of the LC of the Watch. He was an appeasement candidate. He's got the right blood, he's grew up as a high lord's bastard, he's male and he's old enough to rule. That's why I think that the Vale is going to be ruled by the Starks.

Then is that bit from AGOT about the roads not taken. Jon is standing on the Kingsroad, thinking that the Vale, Casterly Rock, Mountain's of Dorne, isles of Braavos and isles of faces were down that road. Well Casterly Rock might fall into his hands because his brother's uncle is being shipped there right now, the Vale because of his blood, Dorne is where he was born and Dawn still is. Then the isles may be where his parents married and lastly Ayra happened be in Braavos right now. Those are some of my reasons.

No he doesn't.