Advanced Crackpottery - The Mance Enigma

[Mulled Wino]

It's quite possible if you believe that Mance created much of his back story.

Let's just ignore lore created by one person, told by many, that many could confirm but just decided not to because a theory sounds cool.

The amount of mind/book bending for that theory is hardly fathomable.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Let's just ignore lore created by one person, told by many, that many could confirm but just decided not to because a theory sounds cool.

The amount of mind/book bending for that theory is hardly fathomable.

Who else is corroborating Mance's story? Halfhand and who else? Almost all we know about Mance comes directly from Mance.

[PrettyPig]

IIRC LC Mormont and Maester Aemon also make some mentions of him.

*sips coffee*

[Bael's Bastard]

It is in Ran's best interest to say so as it is a shocking theory.

Why is it in his best interest? Entering a discussion on a theory you know is correct, in order to tell people that you know have figured it out that there is no way it is correct, just doesn't make any sense. It would seem to me to be in his best interest to avoid discussions where people are onto something he knows is true.

[SerArthurHeath]

BR is too old to BE Mance, if that's what you're implying.

No but would he have met Mance? Could Mance have met up with him in the NW? I think Mance is too young though

Also on reflection, Mance's story about why he turned his cloak sounds like BS. Similar to Jon's really and we know that was BS tinted with a smidgeon of truth

[Dany Girl]

It is in Ran's best interest to say so as it is a shocking theory.

Ran and GRRM don't lie, not out right. They talk in riddles, misdirect, and refuse to answer, but they've never lied. That would lose the trust of the audience.

So when Ran calls the Mance = Rhaegar theory "fucking ridiculous", then that's what it is.

I said in my fist post that Mance being related to the Targs through BR is possible, I just don't see the purpose. Not from a narrative POV.

I also don't believe Mance knew who Jon's real parents were the moment he laid eyes on him. Mance is smart, yes, but why would he feel the urge to question Ned's story? He doesn't know Ned, has never met him 1 on 1, why would he question his honor of begetting a bastard when those closest to Ned (Jon/Robert) don't even question it?

Can Mance figure it out? Sure. Has he yet? Doubtful imo.

[IceFire125]

I think everyone is focused on Lyanna because it's known that the crown Rhaegar laid in her lap was of blue roses. That's an undisputed fact whereas Bael the Bard is often consigned to myth. Don't know how many of the fans believe Bael the Bard ever happened. Clearly Mance believes it though or he wouldn't have chosen Abel for his bard name.

I've been saying Val is a descendant of Night's King. Glad to find a like-minded individual. I think she could turn Jon, or someone else into the next Night's King.

NOOOOO!!! no no no no no no no nooooo *cries* this is the only thing that's shaking my faith about him from the beginning, after the realization of his importance, that Jon = AAR and maybe TPTWP. :bawl: :bawl:

I have this fear that Jon will turn in the end by Val, the agency of Ice (Others/WWs). I have this gut feeling telling me that Jon will push back the Others, but something will make him realized that the Others aren't as evil as what he's been told. He will stop short of destroying that sentient species, however, he will do so at the protest and indignation of The Red God, R'hllor and his followers/supporters (including Dany and the dragons).

This is where the bittersweet ending GRRM talked about is fully applied.

Jon can't be the destroyer of Ice when he has ice blood flowing through his vein. He has to be the balance of Ice and Fire. He has to fulfill his destiny as The Prince That was Promised in the literal journey of the Song of Ice and Fire.

[Bael's Bastard]

Who else is corroborating Mance's story? Halfhand and who else? Almost all we know about Mance comes directly from Mance.

Qhorin is the one that tells us of Mance's origins and being brought to the Wall as a child, and there is no reason to assume he is just parroting Mance without personal knowledge or knowledge from others who were there. Ser Denys Mallister has been commander of the Shadow Tower for 33 years, while Rhaegar was killed 17 years ago. Mance didn't show up at the Wall in his mid-20s 17 years ago and convince people who had been there long before him that he was actually a wildling child brought to and raised at the Wall.

[HexMachina]

Ran and GRRM don't lie, not out right. They talk in riddles, misdirect, and refuse to answer, but they've never lied. That would lose the trust of the audience.

So when Ran calls the Mance = Rhaegar theory "fucking ridiculous", then that's what it is.

:agree: if Ran feels unable to or uncomfortable about answering something, then he either ignores it or makes some funny comment (See "When is the World of Ice and Fire coming out Vol. 3"). The idea that he would go into a thread just to call that theory fucking ridiculous to throw people off is a stupid assumption.

And I say again what I have said before; if there was some "conspiracy" to shoot down theories that guess too close to the truth, why do we have 80 odd R+L=J threads?

ok, that's out of the system, moving away from that ridiculousness and onto the OP

While it would be possible for Mance to be somehow related to BR, whether son/grandson etc.I don't think it would serve any narrative purpose for him to be. His back story seems strong enough already. It's an original thought though, and one I can't say I have seen before. But personally I don't see it happening

[gregg22]

This theory has been swirling in my mind for a while now, and I'm glad someone posted it. Nice job to the OP.

There are several subtle hints in the text:

Free folk don't follow names, or little cloth animals sewn on a tunic. They won't dance for coins, they don't care how you style yourself or what that chain of office means or who your grandsire was. They follow strength. They follow the man.

- Mance to Jon

The way it is phrased ( use of "your" and "yourself") made me think that Mance actually HAS one of those things that he says the Free Folk don't care about or follow. He is talking to Jon Snow. We believe Jon Snow's grandsire to be the Mad King Aerys. If Mance is Bloodraven's bastard that makes his grandsire Aegon IV.

Someone already mentioned that Mance wears a raven helm. Obvious Bloodraven connection there. Supposedly the red blotch on Brynden Rivers face has a raven shape, hence the nick name. However lets remember too, Brynden "Bloodraven" Rivers is half Blackwood. The House Blackwood sigil is a flock of Ravens around a Weirewood tree on Scarlet and Black. House Blackwood, sworn to the Tully's, is the only House south of the neck to keep the Old Gods. Mance's colors are connected to BR too.

Then there is this :

"Some claimed the King's Hand was a student of the dark arts who could change his face, put on the likeness of a one-eyed dog, even turn into a mist. Packs of gaunt gray wolves hunted down his foes, men said, and carrion crows spied for him and whispered secrets in his ear. Most of the tales were only tales, Dunk did not doubt, but no one could doubt that Bloodraven had informers everywhere"

-Duncan the Tall

Dunc also indicates that Bloodraven glamoured himself to look like Ser Maynard Plumm at Whitewalls. Sound familiar?? What if Mel's glamouring of Mance to look like Rattleshirt isnt really her power at all, but something in Mance. Think about all her other dark magic..it draws on other peoples fire. For example Stannis and the shadow babies (his fire burns low)..or sacrificing those with King's blood. She didn't glamour anyone else in the first 4 books.

And how did the Watch get in the business of raising Wildling babies by the way? Isn't it more likely they'd send him to be raised in Moles town? Bloodraven came to the wall with Aemon. If the Mance Rayder that the Rangers found was the child of Bloodraven, then Maester Aemon knew it.

Lets keep in mind too, this really doesn't need to have a purpose, or a big reveal. If true, Mance is still just a bastard of a bastard branch of the Targaryens. Could it be a plot device? Sure. But I have no problem with things like this remaining innuendo.

[Lord Joker]

It is in Ran's best interest to say so as it is a shocking theory.

Euh....most theories are shocking. The Mance/Rhaegar one is just dumb.

Those who still continue to believe it are blinded what they want to believe, and not what's true.

[lakin1013]

I agree with this in essence. Let me ask you, why is everyone so focused on Lyanna and the blue roses and NOT the KitN and the blue roses?

Val is descended from the NIght's King and his Other Wife IMO. I would not be surprised if Val and her "sister" Dalla were considered a kind of unspoken royalty worthy of marrying the KitN.

ValDalla. The Valkyries (choosers of the slain) of Valhalla (hall of the slain).... not sure if GRRM could make that any more obvious.

Count me in the group that believes there is something more to be known about Val and her history and her future importance. Every text description of her remarks on her carriage, her looks, how she thinks, how Ghost acts around her, how she looks with Ghost, how Jon sees her - there is just too much there for her to be rebound girl. I do not yet have a strong guess about who she is but I do think her matrilineal lineage is going to be significant.

[MyLittleFinger]

Qhorin is the one that tells us of Mance's origins and being brought to the Wall as a child, and there is no reason to assume he is just parroting Mance without personal knowledge or knowledge from others who were there. Ser Denys Mallister has been commander of the Shadow Tower for 33 years, while Rhaegar was killed 17 years ago. Mance didn't show up at the Wall in his mid-20s 17 years ago and convince people who had been there long before him that he was actually a wildling child brought to and raised at the Wall.

Yup...but secret targs...secret targs. Everybody hates the cliche of blood being powerful and the aristocracy is always special and powerful, yet in the end, 90% of the theories fucking love that cliche and want it to be true.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Will everyone who wants to discuss Mance as Rhaegar please refrain from doing so here? This thread already has a theory about Mance, which I would like to be able to discuss.

For the purposes of this thread, Rhaegar is dead. He can be alive in other threads, like the ones that are discussing him.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

This theory has been swirling in my mind for a while now, and I'm glad someone posted it. Nice job to the OP.

There are several subtle hints in the text:

Free folk don't follow names, or little cloth animals sewn on a tunic. They won't dance for coins, they don't care how you style yourself or what that chain of office means or who your grandsire was. They follow strength. They follow the man.

- Mance to Jon

The way it is phrased ( use of "your" and "yourself") made me think that Mance actually HAS one of those things that he says the Free Folk don't care about or follow. He is talking to Jon Snow. We believe Jon Snow's grandsire to be the Mad King Aerys. If Mance is Bloodraven's bastard that makes his grandsire Aegon IV.

Someone already mentioned that Mance wears a raven helm. Obvious Bloodraven connection there. Supposedly the red blotch on Brynden Rivers face has a raven shape, hence the nick name. However lets remember too, Brynden "Bloodraven" Rivers is half Blackwood. The House Blackwood sigil is a flock of Ravens around a Weirewood tree on Scarlet and Black. House Blackwood, sworn to the Tully's, is the only House south of the neck to keep the Old Gods. Mance's colors are connected to BR too.

Then there is this :

"Some claimed the King's Hand was a student of the dark arts who could change his face, put on the likeness of a one-eyed dog, even turn into a mist. Packs of gaunt gray wolves hunted down his foes, men said, and carrion crows spied for him and whispered secrets in his ear. Most of the tales were only tales, Dunk did not doubt, but no one could doubt that Bloodraven had informers everywhere"

-Duncan the Tall

<snip

Lets keep in mind too, this really doesn't need to have a purpose, or a big reveal. If true, Mance is still just a bastard of a bastard branch of the Targaryens. Could it be a plot device? Sure. But I have no problem with things like this remaining innuendo.

Thank you.

Interesting points you bring up.

Technically Mance would be the bastard of a legitimized Targaryen, or the bastard of a bastard of a legitimized Targ. BR and the other Great Bastards may go to the end of the line succession-wise but they are Targs by decree of Aegon IV.

NOOOOO!!! no no no no no no no nooooo *cries* this is the only thing that's shaking my faith about him from the beginning, after the realization of his importance, that Jon = AAR and maybe TPTWP. :bawl: :bawl:

<snip

There, there! I don't think she would succeed in turning Jon. I've got ideas about the upcoming battle but they don't fit in this thread. Advanced Crackpottery may eventually become a series. :D

[The Fresh PtwP]

Well i'm more sold on this than the rest of the Mance threads combined. kudos OP

[SerArthurHeath]

I think he might be working with BR, but not necessarily related to him

[Winterfell is Burning]

I don't buy that Mance is BR's son, but grandon is possible.

That said, I hope it isn't true. No more secret Targaryens, please.

[Lady Woodland]

Mance is a smart man.

The daughter of Rickard Stark is "kidnapped" by the Prince and Ned Stark goes to rescue her and returns with a bastard? Mmmm... makes sense.

I mean, I know we've discussed a lot that people don't see what they don't expect, and they believe Ned because he's honourable. But at least SOMEONE has to put all the pieces together, even for the sake of the narrative, specially if it's believed that someone might eventually reveal the plot or pieces of it. I can see GRRM using Mace, the wilding, to figure out what many other "clever noblemen" couldn't see.

This so much this, I find it really hard to believe that Robert seems to accept this at face value, for a man who supposedly doesn't lie he must have told some whoppers to some folk - I mean surely someone asked these questions?

I don't mean to criticise GRRM's writing, but even Catelyn accepts Jon is Honourable Eddard Starks bastard without question, all she want's to know is "who is the other woman".

IIRC, Ned leaves KL after seeing Robert cruelly turning his back on Aerys murder & that of his family without censure, he pardon's Jamie & they argue that no one gets punished for killing Elia & her children. Ned still doing his duty goes to Storm's End lifts the siege, then goes looking for Lyanna, pretty much on his own, no great army behind him, that should have raised questions in itself.

If Robert loved Lyanna so much why doesn't he have search parties ranging near & far to find his beloved? He seems to be ambivalent about the whole thing now he's the king.

At some time later finding Lyanna, & the ToJ "battle" happens, did Robert never think to ask about the remaining KG? Did he ever ask "So how did Lyanna die anyway?" What does Robert believe? or choose not to care enough to look into further, was the whole war just a pretext? Ned just "happens" to have found time to father a bastard while simultaneously fighting battles for Robert all over the South?

There has to be reams of dialogue missing, if RR was truly started with because Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, & led to Rickard & Brandon's death, it's awfully strange that when the whole fiasco is said & done with the Targaryen's dead & Robert on the throne the supposed purpose of the war seems to have been forgotten by the major players.

[Dany Girl]

As to the idea that Mance somehow knows Jon is Rhaegar/Lyanna's child over Ned's, my question is why would he even question it?

Mance does not know Ned, they've never met, and if the people closest to Ned don't question hus story, why would some guy he's never met question it?

It's not like lord's having bastards is uncommon, especially during war times. Ned was at war for about a year, more than enough time to produce a bastard.

So maybe Mance has or will figure it out if he and Jon ever start discussing Ned and Jon's lack of knowledge about his mother. But without that little clue I see no reason a perfect stranger would doubt the story presented.