The dagger/Littlefinger

[HosteenOsteen]

I am still somewhat confused over exactly why LF claims the dagger that stabbed bran;s is Tyrion. He and a certain lady may be plotting to put the blame on the Lannisters for everything to cover up their own guilt in a certain recently deceased gentleman's murder, but why on Tyrion in particular? And when LF says this to Ned and Cat, does he have any idea who really did it? He knows the dagger is Robert;s, yes, but would this ear him to who really did it?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Maybe he thought Ned would be the one to act on the information, catch Tyrion doing something Tywin doesn't approve of and report it, thus Tywin curtails Tyrion's liberties and LF doesn't have to worry about Tyrion showing up in KL at some point and figuring out his plans. Or...he figured Ned would act, doing something to Tyrion that would rile Jaime up (he has to know Cersei doesn't care for her brother) and cause delightfully fun problems. This sets the Lannisters against the Starks (the Starks being already against the Lannisters) and increases the odds that Ned will lose his head, leaving Cat free.

[HosteenOsteen]

Both great suggestions!

[MyLittleFinger]

Poison is a woman's weapon and Jaime if he wanted to kill Bran would have walked into the room and cut him to pieces himself. Tywin is at Casterly Rock, so that leaves Tyrion who being a dwarf and underestimated would be the most inclined to need to hire somebody to do his killing for him.

[The Fourth Head]

Why Tyrion? Well Ned, Cat, Joffrey, Jamie and Cercei are all in KL under the direct administration of Robert at the time of the lie- or were about to be imminently. If LF accuses any of the latter 3, and Ned or Cat openly challenge them, then it would go to Robert, they would deny it, Robert would not have been able to act as he is in Tywin's pocket, and Littlefinger would have burned his bridges with the Lannisters.

Cercei would have hung him, Jamie would have disembowled him- Tyrion? Even with the unexpected twist of becoming appointed hand of the king, he felt he still needed him- so he was a soft target, but still just as useful in prompting conflict. It was far less risk to accuse Tyrion because Tyrion posed the least risk personally to Littlefinger if it got back- which it did.

Further- there was a reasonable chance that Cat- on the kingsroad north, and Tyrion on the kingsroad south- would meet, beyond the authority of Robert- forcing Cat to take action. This was why it had to be Tyrion. He was beyond the King's immediate authority, and therefore, gave the Starks the freedom to act against the Lannisters.

In answer to the other question- not necessarily- but I think the murder with LF's knife is way too coincidental for me to be happy dismissing LF's involvement. At the very least, I think he planted the seed of the idea in Joffrey's mind- a boy already showing signs of a monstrously fragile ego.

[Thendel]

The dagger was Littlefinger's; he lost it to Robert when betting on Jaime winning over Loras Tyrell in the joust.

And of all the Lannisters, Tyrion was the most likely scapegoat; as others have noted, Jaime was famously hands-on when it came to killing, Cersei was the queen and Tywin the most powerful man in the kingdoms, but Tyrion, a man whose affliction garners him great amounts of prejudice and animosity, is an easy target. I doubt that Littlefinger could predict that Tyrion would go the scenic route to the Wall, thus enabling the encounter at the Crossroads' Inn, much less that Tyrion would be placed in a position of power over Littlefinger so soon after he had initiated the war.

[Khal Shaggydog]

Where did LF get a VS blade, dragon-bone hilted dagger in the first place? Do we have confirmation that he lost it to Robert at that tourney? I seem to recall someone saying it was just another fancy gift given to Robert that he casually had in his traveling weapons chest.

LF's plan has to be seen for what it, above all else, is - adaptable. First step was to get himself into a higher position through his only real strong connection to the High Lords, Lysa. Pretty simple strategy to have Lysa kill her husband, so that LF can eventually marry her and claim some level of control over the Vale. That is what I see as his big plan in the beginning - and the rest is the periphery of how he uses the particular fallout. Some is planned - Robert going to Ned Stark as the next Hand - but other things are just reactionary, like the attempt on Bran's life. LF had zero way of planning or controlling that situation - from Bran stumbling across Cersei and Jaime, to Jaime's reaction, to whatever happened next (best guess so far is Joff stepping in for his own reasons).

[John Suburbs]

Sorry if this is a little off topic, but my question is: If it was so important for Cat to hide her movements on the way south, why did she travel openly and on such a busy road to get back home? Either way, the Lannisters would eventually know that she had come to the capital.

[Khal Shaggydog]

Sorry if this is a little off topic, but my question is: If it was so important for Cat to hide her movements on the way south, why did she travel openly and on such a busy road to get back home? Either way, the Lannisters would eventually know that she had come to the capital.

Agreed on that point, although she was trying to travel in secret on the Kingsroad. She thought she was in OK shape since Rodrik had shaved, and she was dirty from the road - Jason Mallister didnt recognize her (after like 15 years though), and the in keep also didnt recognize her.

Its another one of those plot point coincidences that can't be broken down too much - the scene at the crossroads was utterly improbable, but was fantastic action.

[Gregg]

Maybe it wasn't as calculated as we think. Admitting who he truly lost the dagger to could be considered accusing the royal family of an assassination, something I'm sure LF wanted no part of.

Admitting he lost it to Robert would have Ned charging in to confront Robert about it.

Maybe he just jumped on an opportunity and picked someone he was least threatened by.

If he knew it was Joff, he could have told Cerscei how he covered for him to curry favor.

[Bloodmane]

LF wanted to cause trouble, I think we can all agree on that.
Tyrion was in the North at that time. I think that LF expected that Ned would send a raven and order Tyrion's arrest, or when receiving the news Robb would do something stupid. Well, it was Cat who did...

[Khal Shaggydog]

We also don't know too much about Tyrion and LF's relationship, if any, prior to the books in KL. Tyrion was there, on and off, but we have no accurate timeline as to that. We know that LF came to view Tyrion as a major liability later on, as he found out how smart Tyrion was when Tyrion was Hand. Perhaps LF saw this as a good chance to get rid of a potential future threat, but I tend to think it was just an easy play in the "causing chaos" general plan he had.

Surprised Tyrion didnt make more of this when he came into power - especially after going through the whole Vale Experience, Mountains of Moon, etc. He came out of that one top, for sure, with Bronn and the clansman, and eventually Shae, but still, he had to remember it was LF that pinned the whole escapade on him in the first place.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

In answer to the other question- not necessarily- but I think the murder with LF's knife is way too coincidental for me to be happy dismissing LF's involvement. At the very least, I think he planted the seed of the idea in Joffrey's mind- a boy already showing signs of a monstrously fragile ego.

Flat-out impossible. LF was three month's travel time away and sending a raven to Maester Luwin to have him convince Joffrey to ..., well that sounds as absurd as it is.

Sorry if this is a little off topic, but my question is: If it was so important for Cat to hide her movements on the way south, why did she travel openly and on such a busy road to get back home? Either way, the Lannisters would eventually know that she had come to the capital.

Because there were only two ways to get home: on the Kingsroad or by ship. For the latter, she would have to arrange passage in well-observed KL. The former, just a (wealthy) woman and an armed guy traveling. There are thousands of those.

[Khal Shaggydog]

Flat-out impossible. LF was three month's travel time away and sending a raven to Maester Luwin to have him convince Joffrey to ..., well that sounds as absurd as it is.

I agree with this - the whole episode with Bran and Cersei/Jaime was absolutely spontaneous. There is no way LF could have planted a seed of killing one of Ned Stark's kids in Joffrey's fragile mind, even for LF there would be no gain to compare with the horrible fallout of that.

LF took advantage of the knife and situation when it came to him.

[Petyr Patter]

Here is what Littlefinger knows.

1. An Assassin tried to kill Bran.
   
2. The assassin used a knife that belonged to Robert Baratheon, because Littlefinger lost that knife to Robert in a bet.
   
3. Cersei has had an ongoing affair with her brother and all her children are bastards born of incest.
   

Now, let us look what else he has tried to accomplish.

1. He murdered, though Lysa, Jon Arryn.
   
2. The murder was apparently motivated by how Jon was gathering evidence of the incest and working with Stannis.
   
3. He, once again through Lysa, blamed the Lannisters for Jon's death.
   

What I think we are seeing here is Littlefinger trying to break the coalition that put Robert on the throne, an alliance between the Vale, the North, the Stormlands, and the Westerlands entering late. By killing Jon Arryn he know has control over the Vale through Lysa. He then looks to looks to put the North and the Westerlands to war against each other, which by geographical necessity means the Riverlands get involved. Which leaves the Stormlands, which belong to Renly and Littlefinger thinks he can work with Renly.

By naming Tyrion, he creates even more distrust between the Starks and the Lannisters. It also buries his own involvement in Jon Arryn's death. If the truth comes out, Littlefinger can claim he was covering for Robert.

[Osha13]

My question is, who told Littlefinger about Bran being pushed in the first place? How did they do it? I'm pretty sure Bran and Catelyn get attacked by the guy with the VS blade like right after Eddard leaves for KL so him and Robert and company were still on the Kings Road. Did Cersei get Robert's dagger and give it to that guy while they were still in Winterfell? It always seemed like Littlefinger didn't send that guy, but just tried to take advantage of Cat's confusion when she asked him about it. I have always thought Cersei or Joffrey were behind the valryian steel blade attack, and Littlefinger just capitalized on it because it played right into his plans. Maybe it was even Jaime, he has changed since that point in time, but he knew at that time it was a death sentence if Bran told the wrong person what he saw so maybe he tried to have the job finished. Cersei, Jaime, or Joffrey always seemed more likely than Littlefinger to me because they were actually in Winterfell.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

My question is, who told Littlefinger about Bran being pushed in the first place? How did they do it? I'm pretty sure Bran and Catelyn get attacked by the guy with the VS blade like right after Eddard leaves for KL so him and Robert and company were still on the Kings Road. Did Cersei get Robert's dagger and give it to that guy while they were still in Winterfell? It always seemed like Littlefinger didn't send that guy, but just tried to take advantage of Cat's confusion when she asked him about it. I have always thought Cersei or Joffrey were behind the valryian steel blade attack, and Littlefinger just capitalized on it because it played right into his plans. Maybe it was even Jaime, he has changed since that point in time, but he knew at that time it was a death sentence so maybe he tried to have the job finished. Cersei, Jaime, or Joffrey always seemed more likely than Littlefinger to me because they were actually in Winterfell.

Pycelle. Robert did send a raven from Winterfell. The problem is the other way.

The assassination attempt was three weeks after Bran fell, one week after Robert's party left. More than two months before they arrived in KL.

Even a raven needs about a week for that distance. One-way.

[Osha13]

Pycelle. Robert did send a raven from Winterfell. The problem is the other way.

The assassination attempt was three weeks after Bran fell, one week after Robert's party left. More than two months before they arrived in KL.

Even a raven needs about a week for that distance. One-way.

True. Because of everyone's locations in the story at the time, Cersei, Jaime, or Joffrey seem like the most likely to have done it, and to have had access to a dagger of Robert's. They were in Winterfell, and Baelish was down in Kings Landing. Littlefinger may have just taken advantage of the situation when he realized he knew the dagger that cat was holding, and he could blame it on a Lannister to cause further divide between them and the Starks.

[Skoboe]

I am still somewhat confused over exactly why LF claims the dagger that stabbed bran;s is Tyrion. He and a certain lady may be plotting to put the blame on the Lannisters for everything to cover up their own guilt in a certain recently deceased gentleman's murder, but why on Tyrion in particular? And when LF says this to Ned and Cat, does he have any idea who really did it? He knows the dagger is Robert;s, yes, but would this ear him to who really did it?

I think it was a great example of how LF can think on his feet and assess situations in the blink of an eye.

He recognized the dagger when Cat shows him - he used to own it. Even though he'd lost the dagger to Robert he knew that if anyone else recognised that it was once his then Ned would not hesitate to exact swift and brutal justice on him.

So he was up front and admitted it was his (denial would have been a bad move, as above) but quickly made it clear that there was a new owner.

Why did he lie and say it was Tyrion and not Robert that won the dagger? There's probably a very complex reason why he did not say Robert, but picking Tyrion as the culprit was a simple choice...he wanted to start something with the Lannisters, he knew Tyrion was the only important Lannister not in KL at that time, he knew that Tyrion was not travelling with a large guard, he knew that 'The Imp' was generally mistrusted and any blame thrown his way would be readily believed, and he knew the Starks would want revenge.

It was an opportunity too good to pass up...and the best part is, apart from the reader, nobody knows that LF set it all up! Ned is dead, and Cat is as well (as far as LF knows).

[The Fourth Head]

Flat-out impossible. LF was three month's travel time away and sending a raven to Maester Luwin to have him convince Joffrey to ..., well that sounds as absurd as it is.

Why does bran have to see Jamie and Cercei or even be crippled for Joffrey to either kill, injure, or secretly try to have assassinated a Stark? Why does it even have to be Bran? You miss the point- Littlefinger may have pandered to Joffrey's insecurities prior to Joffrey travelling to to Winterfell. The Starks being former Kings- proud Lords, thinking themselves better than everyone else etc. The goal was conflict- the agenda was set months in advance, and the details were improvised IMO. Joffrey was spoiling for a fight right from the off wanting to fight with real swords- So I think Littlefinger using Joffrey to stir up trouble before the Royal retinue even set out from KL is not a stretch of the imagination. Afterall, LF has already started to make his move- killing Arryn and getting Lysa to implicate the Lannisters to the Starks.

As for Tyrion and Cat meeting being a total coincidence- really? 1 road to Winterfell, 2 months to travel along it? By the time of the lie, Littlefinger probably knows Tyrion has not returned with the retinue- therefore, he is probably still in the North. Whether Cat meets Tyrion on the road, or as Tyrion returns down from the wall, or if Robb takes matters into his own hands- the risk is actually high they will meet. If they don't, bad feelings continue to fester, and the Starks and Lannisters are still set on a collision course as soon as Bobby B dies.