Aegon's claim

[JonCon's Red Beard]

In isolation, you're right it means nothing. But why did the author insert that comparison by Jon? It came right after a passage that suggested Jon had been romantically attracted to Rhaegar and after we saw how motivated Jon was to restore is own honor. We had already learned the color of Aegon's eyes in a Tyrion chapter.

The author playing with our heads, maybe?

I get what you say, and I agree. But if we remember Brienne looking at Gendry, she immediately recognised his face because she knew Renly's: she knew his face because she was in love. I doubt the only thing Jon looked were Rhaegar's eyes, but the whole face. This whole "Is Valyrian because he has purple eyes and silvery hair" is pretty vague: the Targaryen have mixed with other people across the times, so, they also have -or should have- specific features besides those. For instance, Cersei notices that Aurane has a narrower face than Rhaegar and they both are from Valyrian ancestry and they look nothing alike. There must be something else of Rhaegar's in Aegon than just the eyes and hair, like nose, bone structure, length of face and more, specially if he got nothing of the Martell side. Of course, this is GRRMgenetis, but, I guess the kid, if he's real, is not only "Valyrianish" but "Rhaegarish".

[Chebyshov]

I get what you say, and I agree. But if we remember Brienne looking at Gendry, she immediately recognised his face because she knew Renly's: she knew his face because she was in love. I doubt the only thing Jon looked were Rhaegar's eyes, but the whole face. This whole "Is Valyrian because he has purple eyes and silvery hair" is pretty vague: the Targaryen have mixed with other people across the times, so, they also have -or should have- specific features besides those. For instance, Cersei notices that Aurane has a narrower face than Rhaegar and they both are from Valyrian ancestry and they look nothing alike. There must be something else of Rhaegar's in Aegon than just the eyes and hair, like nose, bone structure, length of face and more, specially if he got nothing of the Martell side. Of course, this is GRRMgenetis, but, I guess the kid, if he's real, is not only "Valyrianish" but "Rhaegarish".

:agree:

JonCon seems to think he's the real deal (or is fooling himself into believing it), and I'm sure that goes beyond eye color. Also, let's not forget what Doran says about the Sand Snakes and their eyes in relation to Oberyn:

Her hair was gold as well, and her eyes were deep blue pools... and yet somehow they reminded the captain of her father’s eyes, though Oberyn’s had been as black as night. All of Prince Oberyn’s daughters have his viper eyes, Hotah realized suddenly. The color does not matter.

Slash not to be self-serving, but I tried to compile the evidence on Aegon: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/109569-aegon-vis-identity-compiling-the-evidence/

[Skore]

Elia Martell, you raped her, you killed her, you murdered her children (plural)

Elia Martell, I killed her screaming whelp (singular), then I raped her, then I smashed her fucking head in.

That to me is enough of a question mark.

The other is Jon Connington's POV where he truly believes that he is looking out for Rhaegar's son.

[Buried Treasure]

:agree:

JonCon seems to think he's the real deal (or is fooling himself into believing it), and I'm sure that goes beyond eye color. Also, let's not forget what Doran says about the Sand Snakes and their eyes in relation to Oberyn:

I don't think Jon is fooling himself do much as being fooled by his own memory. The memory is a fallible thing, and I don't believe Jon has so much as an illustration of Rhaegar.

Jon met a 6 year old and had to compare that to the 5 year old memory of adult Rhaegar. Then he watched the kid grow whilst his memories of Rhaegar faded (or possibly even reformed to match Aegon's features). Now he is comparing a young adult to a 17 year old memory of another adult.

The Brienne comparison is very different. She meets a young adult and is immediately struck by his resemblance to another adult she had last seen a few months (a year?) earlier.

[Chebyshov]

Elia Martell, you raped her, you killed her, you murdered her children (plural)

Elia Martell, I killed her screaming whelp (singular), then I raped her, then I smashed her fucking head in.

That to me is enough of a question mark.

The other is Jon Connington's POV where he truly believes that he is looking out for Rhaegar's son.

Didn't Lorch kill Rhaenys though? She was a floor above Elia and the screaming whelp (whoever it may have been).

[In A Coat of Gold]

Well even though Varys is the master of whispers, there's a chance the word might get out that a man strongly resembling the supposedly dead best friend of Rhaegar Targaryen is at the house of more or less known Targ supporter with a boy that has Valyrian features and just happens to be the same age as Rhaegar's son would be...

Though I think they might have been a tiny bit overzealous in hiding his secret.

On another topic: If we consider the Occam's razor argument already presented earlier, why would that mean that Aegon is a Blackfyre? By the very definition of the simplest explanation, we should assume that Aegon is just a random kid with Valyrian features with no relation whatsoever to either Targaryens or Blackfyres.

Yeah, Bobby B did have it out for Viserys and Dany, but even he admitted they couldn't get close to Illyrio's manse to kill them.

Does it even say how long they were on the poleboat? Illyrio knows the kid well enough that it seems possible they did live with him for a time. Maybe they left Pentos to escape the Grey Plague, or because Illyrio had to run his scheme with Viserys?

And whilst Valyrian features are common (half the whores in Lys have them apparently), exiled Westerosi lords with red hair are not. Varys put the two together early so that Jon C could support the Aegon story but a known Targaryen loyalist with a Valyrian featured boy is suspicious. They both dyed their hair, to improve their father-son story by masking the dissimilarty of their features.

I also don't discount that Varys is crafting a narrative for Aegon (true, regardless of whether he is the genuine article). Westeros has fairy tales just as we do and people like to fit others into narrative boxes (see also 'Princess' Val). Aegon the prince hidden on a poleboat is a better sell than Aegon, raised in a cheese merchant's mansion.

Yeah, I wouldn't put it past Varys to put the kid on a boat and tell him his life is in danger to help groom him more.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Didn't Lorch kill Rhaenys though? She was a floor above Elia and the screaming whelp (whoever it may have been).

Yeap.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Elia Martell, you raped her, you killed her, you murdered her children (plural)

Elia Martell, I killed her screaming whelp (singular), then I raped her, then I smashed her fucking head in.

That to me is enough of a question mark.

Well, the Mountain killed a baby. He doesn't know what baby.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Well, the Mountain killed a baby. He doesn't know what baby.

The fair assumption was that the baby was Aegon Targaryen, so of Rhaegar since princesses aren't usually in the habit of babysitting other's wee ones.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

He wasn't declared legally dead. The only evidence for him being dead is the word of Tywin Lannister and Gregor Clegane, plus a mutilated corpse. Basically, there is as much evidence for Aegon being dead as there is for Bran being dead.

Also the fact that Princess Elia was with Aegon when they were killed. And while the fact that Clegane smashed the boy's head into a pulp made Varys' switch at least marginally plausible, Varys had no way of knowing beforehand that this would have happened. It could have been Lorch killing Aegon and Clegane killing Rhaenys. Or just Lorch handling everything. Or Clegane not bothering with destroying the child's face. But even if the exact execution of the murder luckily aligned with Varys' plan, another potentially catastrophic hole in the plan just waited for its turn. Grand Maester Pycelle, AKA the royal family's physician, who coincidentally was Tywin Lannister's bitch (although it matters little whose bitch he was, unless he was Varys'). Even with the boy's face smashed, Pycelle could have spotted something that gave the deception away.

All in all, the alleged switch was a harebrained scheme where everything could go wrong.

[In A Coat of Gold]

Also the fact that Princess Elia was with Aegon when they were killed. And while the fact that Clegane smashed the boy's head into a pulp made Varys' switch at least marginally plausible, Varys had no way of knowing beforehand that this would have happened. It could have been Lorch killing Aegon and Clegane killing Rhaenys. Or just Lorch handling everything. Or Clegane not bothering with destroying the child's face. But even if the exact execution of the murder luckily aligned with Varys' plan, another potentially catastrophic hole in the plan just waited for its turn. Grand Maester Pycelle, AKA the royal family's physician, who coincidentally was Tywin Lannister's bitch (although it matters little whose bitch he was, unless he was Varys'). Even with the boy's face smashed, Pycelle could have spotted something that gave the deception away.

All in all, the alleged switch was a harebrained scheme where everything could go wrong.

Children aren't all that unique at a young age. Aegon was around 1 years old. It didn't need to happen, and in fact, if his head wasn't smashed in, it would've been better for Varys as everyone would have known real Aegon was alive.

[Jaehaerys Targaryen]

So many people refer to him as Faegon. What evidence is there that he is a fake?

• Septa Lemore had given birht to somebody and we know that the Faith doesn't have children (and why should a woman of the Faith teach the boy and not a septon??)

Tyrion has been thoughtful about his identity.

If he was the real Aegon, why had Illyrio sent him to Daenerys? (to support his claim)

Illyrio had shown sadness when Tyrion left with the Half-Maester to meet the Golden Company.

We already have history that tells the about the death of Aegon, the rape of his mother and the death of his sister.

Why should the Golden Company help him? (they despised the Targaryens. They invaded Westeros in the Nine-penny War and they always were with the side of the Blackfyres)

Arianne has also been thoughtful about his identity (WoW)

Kevan and The Knight of Griffin Roost said that his blood cannot be identified.

Varys and Illyrio conspiracing to put him on the Throne(whta's the catch?).

Illyrio said that he wanted to be the Master of the Coin in Kings Landing, but Tyrion thought he had greater ambitions than that and money he had lots of it).

[James Arryn]

The theory that FAegon is Rhaegar's son is based at Varys' words, who never said Aegon Targaryen Rhaegar's son.

True, but I would call that cheap writing if he's misleading a dead man for the purposes of misleading the readers.

I also find the motivation for a secret BF to be completely unworthy of the investment when destroying House Targaryan and moving on from there a decade or so back was completely within their control and could have easily been done in a way to make martyrs of them.

Lastly, technical question: in that Daemon was legitimated and chose the name BF, does this preclude his descendants from using the name Targaryan? Plantagenet is an example of a name which was voluntarily re-applied by choice, for example.

[James Arryn]

Also the fact that Princess Elia was with Aegon when they were killed. And while the fact that Clegane smashed the boy's head into a pulp made Varys' switch at least marginally plausible, Varys had no way of knowing beforehand that this would have happened. It could have been Lorch killing Aegon and Clegane killing Rhaenys. Or just Lorch handling everything. Or Clegane not bothering with destroying the child's face. But even if the exact execution of the murder luckily aligned with Varys' plan, another potentially catastrophic hole in the plan just waited for its turn. Grand Maester Pycelle, AKA the royal family's physician, who coincidentally was Tywin Lannister's bitch (although it matters little whose bitch he was, unless he was Varys'). Even with the boy's face smashed, Pycelle could have spotted something that gave the deception away.

All in all, the alleged switch was a harebrained scheme where everything could go wrong.

You're supposing the scheme came into life fully formed. That's not how things usually happen in a crisis. The baby might have just been a close enough approximation to fool people long enough to get Aegon out of KL, but the Mountain's mayhem allowed for much more.

Edit: another faulty post-hoc assumption I see made a lot is the idea that Varys and/or Elia would only smuggle Aegon out knowing a massacre was coming. I see little evidence that this would have been assumed, and as we have seen many times, possession of an heir to a House is considered a significant factor. They can even be used to leverage against others, for example.

(Another very simple motivation could have been the old 'splitting up to maximize chances' thing.)

So getting Aegon out to have a viable chip still in the game would be as realistic a motive as not wanting him killed. There is no need to assume that everyone saw the mass murder coming.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The author playing with our heads, maybe?

I get what you say, and I agree. But if we remember Brienne looking at Gendry, she immediately recognised his face because she knew Renly's: she knew his face because she was in love. I doubt the only thing Jon looked were Rhaegar's eyes, but the whole face. This whole "Is Valyrian because he has purple eyes and silvery hair" is pretty vague: the Targaryen have mixed with other people across the times, so, they also have -or should have- specific features besides those. For instance, Cersei notices that Aurane has a narrower face than Rhaegar and they both are from Valyrian ancestry and they look nothing alike. There must be something else of Rhaegar's in Aegon than just the eyes and hair, like nose, bone structure, length of face and more, specially if he got nothing of the Martell side. Of course, this is GRRMgenetis, but, I guess the kid, if he's real, is not only "Valyrianish" but "Rhaegarish".

I agree :D

Didn't Lorch kill Rhaenys though? She was a floor above Elia and the screaming whelp (whoever it may have been).

Yeah, Rhaenys had been hiding under Rhaegar's bed. Elia and the babe were one floor down, in the nursery IIRC.

• Septa Lemore had given birht to somebody and we know that the Faith doesn't have children (and why should a woman of the Faith teach the boy and not a septon??) first of all, a boy is usually educated by a maester, not a septon :) small difference. Second, there are more septa's who've given birth and are still with the Faith (like the mother of Tyene Sand)
• Tyrion has been thoughtful about his identity. But is now convinced that Aegon is real.
• If he was the real Aegon, why had Illyrio sent him to Daenerys? (to support his claim) Because Daenerys would (foro as far as they know) also come to Westeros to claim the throne. If two members of the same family want the throne, why would you risk one killing the other, if you can unite their causes in marriage? Also, it has the advantage of a bigger army.
• Illyrio had shown sadness when Tyrion left with the Half-Maester to meet the Golden Company. Because he couldn't see Aegon. Aegon most likely spend the first 5 years in exile in Illyrio's house (hence the clothes Tyrion finds). Sadness as the foster father of the child for multiple years, since the boy is so close (and we don't know how frequently they've seen each other, but I doubt they all were able to meet up rather regularly), yet they cannot meet.
• We already have history that tells the about the death of Aegon, the rape of his mother and the death of his sister. Yes, because that's what Westeros believes. It isn't only important whether Aegon is real or not. Even if he's real, and everyone believes him to be fake, the problems start. But also, the story about a dead Aegon was necessary, because otherwise, baby Aegon would have been searched for across the world by Robert's forces for years.
• Why should the Golden Company help him? (they despised the Targaryens. They invaded Westeros in the Nine-penny War and they always were with the side of the Blackfyres) The GC does not despise Targaryens. The Blackfyres despised Targaryens. But the GC right now does not contain Blackfyres, and most of the men in the GC most likely never met a Blackfyre (it has been 39 years after all). The men who originally supporter Daemon I, at least the higher born, would have been supporting Daemon because they felt they had something to gain from supporting him and helping him win. (not saying there weren't those who truly believed in the cause ;) )/ Those men lost their lands and wealth because of that decision, and were exiled. Joining Bittersteels GC would help them get their lands back, it was the only chance they had to get their lands in their possession once again. Their (great)grandsons are still exiles, and want nothing more than to get back the lands their ancestors lost. The Blackfyres are gone. If getting their lands back can be done by supporting a Targaryen, so be it.
• Arianne has also been thoughtful about his identity (WoW) Naturally, she has been told from the age of 7 that Aegon is dead. It is only natural to doubt.
• Kevan and The Knight of Griffin Roost said that his blood cannot be identified. They think that. We don't know what other cards Varys has.
• Varys and Illyrio conspiracing to put him on the Throne(whta's the catch?). That, we should learn in Winds (I hope) I have a theory though, but perhaps that's better for another time :)
• Illyrio said that he wanted to be the Master of the Coin in Kings Landing, but Tyrion thought he had greater ambitions than that and money he had lots of it). Same as the previous one, we should learn soon :)

My answers in bold behind your questions :)

True, but I would call that cheap writing if he's misleading a dead man for the purposes of misleading the readers.

I also find the motivation for a secret BF to be completely unworthy of the investment when destroying House Targaryan and moving on from there a decade or so back was completely within their control and could have easily been done in a way to make martyrs of them.

Lastly, technical question: in that Daemon was legitimated and chose the name BF, does this preclude his descendants from using the name Targaryan? Plantagenet is an example of a name which was voluntarily re-applied by choice, for example.

Daemon started House Blackfyre. His sons would thus be legally called Blackfyre, not Targaryen. And his sons were trueborn, so Blackfyre it will be,

[Lost Melnibonean]

Also the fact that Princess Elia was with Aegon when they were killed. And while the fact that Clegane smashed the boy's head into a pulp made Varys' switch at least marginally plausible, Varys had no way of knowing beforehand that this would have happened. It could have been Lorch killing Aegon and Clegane killing Rhaenys. Or just Lorch handling everything. Or Clegane not bothering with destroying the child's face. But even if the exact execution of the murder luckily aligned with Varys' plan, another potentially catastrophic hole in the plan just waited for its turn. Grand Maester Pycelle, AKA the royal family's physician, who coincidentally was Tywin Lannister's bitch (although it matters little whose bitch he was, unless he was Varys'). Even with the boy's face smashed, Pycelle could have spotted something that gave the deception away.

All in all, the alleged switch was a harebrained scheme where everything could go wrong.

It matters a great deal that Pycelle was Tywin's bitch. If not for that, whether the baby's head had been smashed to a pulp would not matter. There was no one other than Pycelle to point out the discrepancy. The servants woulda kept their mouths shut. Anyone loyal to the Targaryens woulda kept silent too. The usurpers would notta noticed the discrepancy so long as the boy had "Valyrian" features.

But Pycelle would have. Varys would have known this, and Varys would have known that Pycelle was sympathetic to Tywin.

Now even though I have no doubt that Aegon is a Blackfyre, I would note that if I'm wrong and Varys had been executing the pisswater prince switcheroo, he could have been planning to whack good ol' Pycelle during or immediately after the sack, but realized there was no need once the Mountain did what the Mountain does.

That suggests to me that whether Varys could have anticipated Gregor pulverizing little Aegon's head, or even Aegon's death, during the sack was of little relevance.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Children aren't all that unique at a young age. Aegon was around 1 years old. It didn't need to happen, and in fact, if his head wasn't smashed in, it would've been better for Varys as everyone would have known real Aegon was alive.

Absolutely. Viserys had fled so there would not have been any great concern over another male Targaryen heir abroad. He would have just been one more thorn in bushes.

[Lost Melnibonean]

True, but I would call that cheap writing if he's misleading a dead man for the purposes of misleading the readers.

I also find the motivation for a secret BF to be completely unworthy of the investment when destroying House Targaryan and moving on from there a decade or so back was completely within their control and could have easily been done in a way to make martyrs of them.

Lastly, technical question: in that Daemon was legitimated and chose the name BF, does this preclude his descendants from using the name Targaryan? Plantagenet is an example of a name which was voluntarily re-applied by choice, for example.

The dead men weren't the only one in the room. Varys's little birds were listening too.

[Chebyshov]

The GC does not despise Targaryens. The Blackfyres despised Targaryens. But the GC right now does not contain Blackfyres, and most of the men in the GC most likely never met a Blackfyre (it has been 39 years after all). The men who originally supporter Daemon I, at least the higher born, would have been supporting Daemon because they felt they had something to gain from supporting him and helping him win. (not saying there weren't those who truly believed in the cause ;) )/ Those men lost their lands and wealth because of that decision, and were exiled. Joining Bittersteels GC would help them get their lands back, it was the only chance they had to get their lands in their possession once again. Their (great)grandsons are still exiles, and want nothing more than to get back the lands their ancestors lost. The Blackfyres are gone. If getting their lands back can be done by supporting a Targaryen, so be it.

Thank you for putting this so well! I've made this point before, but I don't think in such a concise way. The whole "Aegon is a Blackfyre" thing seemed to come up mostly because of Illyrio's "black or red, a dragon is still a dragon," remark, when in fact I think he was just trying to explain what you did right there.

That, we should learn in Winds (I hope) I have a theory though, but perhaps that's better for another time :)

Aw, what a tease.

[James Arryn]

The dead men weren't the only one in the room. Varys's little birds were listening too.

Yeah, this argument always fails to persuade me.

1) Varys trusts his little birds with things that would get him killed all the time.

2) He also must have a way of dealing with those who know more than is good for him and he doesn't trust.

3) There's just no motivation to deceive them. Their tongues are ripped out...ie, they're not opt-in participants. There is no need to get them on board, especially for a cause none of them are old enough to even understand.

4) There is no need to deceive Ilyrio through them with this. It's not like barring hearing about this speech to a dead man Ilyrio will be worried, or that this would placate him if he were.