Alternate History--Rhaeger Wins Trident

[Blue_Bard]

What would have happened if Rhaeger had killed Robert at the Trident? Here is my theory:

Key Assumptions:

1) R+L=J

2) Rhaegar wanted to end the cycle of violence started by Aerys

3) Catelyn Tully was pregnant with Robb, and neither Rhaegar nor Ned knew that

4) Lyanna Stark was dying of childbed fever, and no one outside of the Tower of Joy knew that

5) I am not a Rhaegar partisan or detractor--he was a good fighter but in this story got lucky against Robert; he was wiser than Aerys but not a paragon, and was clearly obsessed with the PTWP prophecy.

The waters and banks of the Trident ran red with blood, most heavily around the ford where the leaders of the two armies met in savage combat--Robert Baratheon, fighting for his life and betrothed, and Rhaegar Targaryen, fighting for causes more esoteric but no less inspiring. Robert had been a terror with his warhammer that day, laying waste to all who opposed him in his quest to find and kill the Prince. He finally found Rhaegar, alone, as Ser Barristan Selmy had been drawn away by the tumult of battle, Jonothor Darry had been killed, and Prince Lewyn Martell was leading the Dornish contingent of the Royal Army. The clash was brutal, both men struggling to keep their destriers afoot in the waters of the stream. Finally, a slashing blow by Rhaegar missed Robert but slew his horse, and Robert fell into the stream. Rhaegar, ever aware of chivalrous niceties, dismounted and allowed Robert to stand, but Robert's leg had been injured in the fall and he was unable to dodge Rhaegar's next blow, which found a weakness at the neck of his armor and dropped him into the swirling waters. Robert's hammer fell from his hand, embedding itself into the mud of the ford so solidly that two men could not remove it. Thereafter, the spot was known as the Hammer Ford.

With Robert dead, the rebel army disintegrated. Eddard Stark tried to rally his forces, but could do little more than mount a successful rearguard action, falling back to the rebel camp on the north bank. In the night, streams of Riverlands lords and knights deserted the camp, making their way to the Royal camp to bend the knee. In the morning, the forces of the Vale and the North, much battered by the fighting, found themselves hopelessly outnumbered and too far from friendly castles to have much hope. Reinforcements seemed to be on their way from the north under Walder Frey, but Hoster Tully advised Eddard not to rely on them, as Frey would have heard of Robert's death and could not be trusted. The rebel lords surrendered to Rhaegar that evening.

Rhaegar, with an eye on dealing with his father, moved quickly to ensure his position. The knights, lords, and soldiers of the rebel armies were given blanket pardons and told to return home; only Eddard Stark, Hoster Tully, and Jon Arryn accompanied the Royal Army south as prisoners. Ominously, Rhaegar had ravens sent to Riverrun and the Eyrie with orders for Edmure Tully (Hoster's heir) and Yohn Royce (the strongest candidate for regency, since Jon Arryn's heirs had died in the Rebellion) to repair to King's Landing, but he reassured his prisoners that he was not planning a repeat of his father's murders--instead, they would take the Black and their heirs would replace them on the Grand Council he would convene to depose Aerys. This satisfied the beaten Hoster and Jon, but Eddard inquired who would take his place on the Council, and also inquired after the fate of Lyanna. Rhaegar only smiled knowingly, and reassured Eddard that his sister was alive.

The Royal Army met the host of Tywin Lannister at the gates of King's Landing. The two armies camped outside the gates as a picked force accompanied Rhaegar through the gates, up to the Red Keep and into the throne room. Aerys met him at the foot of the throne, Jaime Lannister at his back, and congratulated him on his victory. Rhaegar, flanked by Lewyn Martell and a wounded Barristan Selmy, as well as hundreds of veterans of the Trident, ordered Aerys seized and put in chains.

Martell and Selmy had been informed of Rhaegar's plan, but they hesitated to draw weapons against their Brother. Jaime, however, had heard Aerys discuss his plan to burn the city in the event of Robert's victory and had been told by Rhaegar before the Trident of his plans for a Grand Council. He forced the King to his knees, allowing Rhaegar himself to bind his father's hands.

The Grand Council was held, with each of the Lords Paramount, including Edmure Tully, Yohn Royce, and Stannis Baratheon, present. Only the North was unrepresented. The fate of Aerys was decided quickly--he would be set aside in favor of Rhaegar--but the new King delayed other business, including the fates of Queen Rhaella, prince Viserys, and Princess Daenerys, with little explanation, as if waiting for someone or something. Finally, after two weeks, he could wait no more. He announced to the realm that, after the manner of Aegon the Conqueror, he had in fact married Lyanna Stark (on the Isle of Faces before a Wierwood in the Northern manner), and conceived a child. Lyanna was returning to King's Landing with the remaining Kingsguard. With her brother taking the Black, Lyanna was Lady Paramount of the North, with the prince or princess as her heir.

Edmure Tully had set off for King's Landing before his sister knew she was pregnant, so that news was not known to the Council at that time. Similarly, Rhaegar told a few high lords of his true motivations, the Prince who was Promised, and the 3-headed Dragon, but most of the realm only knew that the mad Targaryen king had been deposed by another, possibly madder one, but at least the fighting was over.

The news of Catelyn Tully's pregnancy reached King's Landing on the day that the news of Lyanna's death in childbed and the birth of Prince Visenys did, and two days after the ship carrying the defeated rebel lords to the Wall departed. When he heard the news, King Rhaegar fell into a black study and smashed his harp. The prophecy faltering, Lyanna dead, the child of the wrong gender (although at least he was named after Visenya)...in more prosaic dynastic reasoning, all that could be hoped was that Catelyn bore a girl who could be married to Visenys, healing the last wound of the Rebellion.

[TheOldWolf]

If he won we can assume he probably killed Robert, cutting off the head of the rebellion. Rhaegar probably would've take Aerys off the Throne, and in my opinion probably would've pardoned ned and Jom Arryn.

[Bloodymummer]

Had Benjen taken the black by this point? If not....

[Beorn Snow]

Benjen would be considered lord of WF until the birth of Robb, in which case he still would rule until Robb came of age.

He cannot take the black, to many responsibilities, so he marries. Who? (Lady Dustin is probably not a widow in this scenario, but if she was it´d be an interesting possibility).

It would make for an interesting power struggle if Catelyn came to WF with infant Robb, Benjen would marry an ambitious wife and have children, (probably a son or two), and we know how Catelyn worries about her children´s succession. (She always saw Jon Snow as a threat, and who knows, Benjen might be tempted to have his children succeed as time passes).

Or he and Catelyn marry?

[Blue_Bard]

Ahh, I had forgotten that Benjen had not yet taken the Black.

That very much reduces the interestingness of my theory, which was based on the rivalry between Robb and Jon (Visenys in this theory), with Rhaegar intending his child with Lyanna to become LP of the North and not realizing he'd have to continue the conflict with the Starks and Tullys in order to do so.

[Tiggy4Real]

Wouldn't Catelyn have already had Robb by the time Visenys was born?

Visenys . . . that kid would have still gotten a Northern name.

[Beorn Snow]

Well, Robb is the heir legally, there can be no doubt about that.

But I would not put it beyond Rhaegar to try to force his son on the north and start the conflict again. He isn´t politically the smartest guy. (But might have learnt something from the war).

Try to force his son on the north might interestingly lead to a King in the North Robb Stark, with his regent Ben Stark and general Blackfish fighting for independence. (I see the Westerlands staying out of the conflict, Dorne only sending token forces, and the Vale even fighting against the IT once again). Wonder what Stannis makes of all of this?

[ckal]

What would have happened if Rhaeger had killed Robert at the Trident? Here is my theory:

Key Assumptions:

1) R+L=J

I don't see how Rhaegar living changes this at all, other than the increased liklihood of strict confirmation eventually (if it is in fact true).

[Blue_Bard]

Rhaegar totally had a name picked out for his and Lyanna's child. Given that his other kids were Aegon and Rhaella, pretty sure if it was a girl it would be Visenya. Also pretty sure he shared that knowledge with Lyanna, also this theory assumes that she was on board with the whole thing, so without anyone there to change the child's name she would have named him what she and Rhaegar had planned, and communicated that to the KG.

So after she died, one of the KG would have escorted her body north, another would have escorted Wylla and the baby, and another would have rode for King's Landing ASAP to bring the news in person, stopping at the nearest castle to send a raven ahead.

Benjen, Catelyn, and any other important Northerners would possibly have objected to this, but the baby would be in the hands of the KG and then Rhaegar, so the name would stick.

Wonder what Dorne would have thought of all that, or if Elia would have been on board with the prophecy and willing to raise Lyanna's child with hers assuming it was not safe to send him north.

[Blue_Bard]

I don't see how Rhaegar living changes this at all, other than the increased liklihood of strict confirmation eventually (if it is in fact true).

Well, if R+L =/= J, the part of this theory dealing with succession in the North would make no sense. Rhaegar would have no reason to be annoyed at the existence of Robb.

[Tiggy4Real]

Rhaegar totally had a name picked out for his and Lyanna's child. Given that his other kids were Aegon and Rhaella, pretty sure if it was a girl it would be Visenya. Also pretty sure he shared that knowledge with Lyanna, also this theory assumes that she was on board with the whole thing, so without anyone there to change the child's name she would have named him what she and Rhaegar had planned, and communicated that to the KG.

So after she died, one of the KG would have escorted her body north, another would have escorted Wylla and the baby, and another would have rode for King's Landing ASAP to bring the news in person, stopping at the nearest castle to send a raven ahead.

Benjen, Catelyn, and any other important Northerners would possibly have objected to this, but the baby would be in the hands of the KG and then Rhaegar, so the name would stick.

Wonder what Dorne would have thought of all that, or if Elia would have been on board with the prophecy and willing to raise Lyanna's child with hers assuming it was not safe to send him north.

Rhaegar had a name picked out for a child he expected to be a girl. Lyanna was on-board with the plan before she learned her brother and father died. Who's to say that that didn't change? There was already a Viserys, I don't think Rhaegar would have named his son Visenys as well. Jhaeherys maybe.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The North and the Vale continue fighting. The loyalists die by the tens of thousands in front of Moat Cailin and the Bloody Gate. In Kings Landing, Elia and Lyanna face each other with dagger and poison. The Faith comes knocking around. Unseating Aerys weakened Rhaegar's hold on the throne. One region after the other tell Rhaegar where he can kiss them and do their own stuff.

[Blue_Bard]

The North and the Vale continue fighting. The loyalists die by the tens of thousands in front of Moat Cailin and the Bloody Gate. In Kings Landing, Elia and Lyanna face each other with dagger and poison. The Faith comes knocking around. Unseating Aerys weakened Rhaegar's hold on the throne. One region after the other tell Rhaegar where he can kiss them and do their own stuff.

1) Given the location of the Trident and the chaos of a beaten army's retreat, how would the rebel armies make it there before being ridden down by the Royal army? Or would Ned and Jon abandon their bannermen and soldiers and ride away with a few picked companions to gather reinforcements? If the latter, who will stand with them when the loyalists march again? You think Lady Dustin was mad because her husband's bones didn't come back, what would she say if Ned fled leaving her living husband to rot a prisoner at Harrenhal?

2) Assuming they succeeded, why would the loyalists attack impregnable positions instead of coming to some sort of negotiated settlement?

3) With Robert dead and Aerys deposed, why would Ned and Jon keep the war going (especially with Cat and maybe Lysa stuck at Riverrun, which would be captured fairly quickly in your scenario, and Lyanna still missing)?

4) Lyanna is dead, she's facing no one with anything.

5) Therefore, there's no reason for Rhaegar to come into conflict with the Faith, he could just legitimize Jon (with armies opposing him still in the field, he would have waited until he had Lyanna in person to get Ned to surrender, and thus would have learned of her death before he announced their marriage).

6) The Reach is still loyal and has no reason to switch; The rebel stormlords would have no natural boundaries and would all bend the knee again or be deposed, so Stannis is either bending the knee as well or eating rats in Storm's End for an indefinite period; Dorne still has the Queen and no reason to rebel; Tywin Lannister is probably helping pacify the Riverlands or else sitting on his ass and has no incentive to throw in with the leaderless rebels rather than the Targs who are now ruled by someone he doesn't know to be insane and who hasn't threatened him. Who is joining the rebellion at this point?

7) Honestly, the answer to question #6 is probably Balon Greyjoy. Which would be interesting, but also a substantial digression.

[Minsc]

Hopefully, Aerys II goes all Ivan the Terrible on Rhaegar when he attempts to challenge him.

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

Rhaegar had a name picked out for a child he expected to be a girl. Lyanna was on-board with the plan before she learned her brother and father died. Who's to say that that didn't change? There was already a Viserys, I don't think Rhaegar would have named his son Visenys as well. Jhaeherys maybe.

Rhaegar would not have cared that his son had the same name as his brother (Jon's Uncle), that happens all the time especially int the Targaryen family.

Jon's Targ name is Viserys Targaryen

[OberynBlackfyre]

Careful cuz this borderlines on fan fiction and mods here get real crazy about it.

I think this is well thought out, however it would be a little more complicated. Plus I don't think people would think Rhaegar was mad, as a lot of evidence shows that he was beloved of the small folk for the most part. In rhaegars reign, I would also foresee an issue with the Faith as well.

[OberynBlackfyre]

Rhaegar would not have cared that his son had the same name as his brother (Jon's Uncle), that happens all the time especially int the Targaryen family.

Jon's Targ name is Viserys Targaryen

doesn't necessarily HAVE to be Viserys....could be Viserion like dany named her dragon or Velaryon.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

1) Given the location of the Trident and the chaos of a beaten army's retreat, how would the rebel armies make it there before being ridden down by the Royal army? Or would Ned and Jon abandon their bannermen and soldiers and ride away with a few picked companions to gather reinforcements? If the latter, who will stand with them when the loyalists march again? You think Lady Dustin was mad because her husband's bones didn't come back, what would she say if Ned fled leaving her living husband to rot a prisoner at Harrenhal?

2) Assuming they succeeded, why would the loyalists attack impregnable positions instead of coming to some sort of negotiated settlement?

3) With Robert dead and Aerys deposed, why would Ned and Jon keep the war going (especially with Cat and maybe Lysa stuck at Riverrun, which would be captured fairly quickly in your scenario, and Lyanna still missing)?

4) Lyanna is dead, she's facing no one with anything.

5) Therefore, there's no reason for Rhaegar to come into conflict with the Faith, he could just legitimize Jon (with armies opposing him still in the field, he would have waited until he had Lyanna in person to get Ned to surrender, and thus would have learned of her death before he announced their marriage).

6) The Reach is still loyal and has no reason to switch; The rebel stormlords would have no natural boundaries and would all bend the knee again or be deposed, so Stannis is either bending the knee as well or eating rats in Storm's End for an indefinite period; Dorne still has the Queen and no reason to rebel; Tywin Lannister is probably helping pacify the Riverlands or else sitting on his ass and has no incentive to throw in with the leaderless rebels rather than the Targs who are now ruled by someone he doesn't know to be insane and who hasn't threatened him. Who is joining the rebellion at this point?

7) Honestly, the answer to question #6 is probably Balon Greyjoy. Which would be interesting, but also a substantial digression.

1) Doesn't matter. Maybe they can retreat in order, maybe they can't. But their heirs can't yield. Benjen and Jon's next nephew/cousin have their own lives on the block, they will continue as much as Ned or Jon themselves would.

2) Because they can't negotiate to satisfy both sides. It's plain impossible to reach a compromise, leaving only the sword.

3) Because Rhaegar isn't especially popular with them, after rebelling they could never trust him anymore and they need to keep fighting to survive.

4) Then make that Aegon and Jon as soon as they can grip daggers themselves.

5) Meh. Not something the Faith approves of but the smallest problem.

6) After losing the first 100,000 men and 10,000,000 gold dragons, the Lords Paramount would start asking themselves one question: "Why should I follow that idiot, wasting my men and my money, instead of being king myself and keeping them/it?"

I think this is well thought out, however it would be a little more complicated. Plus I don't think people would think Rhaegar was mad, as a lot of evidence shows that he was beloved of the small folk for the most part. In rhaegars reign, I would also foresee an issue with the Faith as well.

So was Baelor the Blessed/Befuddled.

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

I think if Rhaegar defeats Robert and the Targaryen forces win, that you are correct that Rhaegar takes the Throne from his father and becomes King.

He then is by Lyanna's side when she dies and makes Rhaegar promise to pardon Ned, Jon and Hoster, similar to the promise she asks of Ned.

Ned goes back to the North, Jon to the Vale and Hoster to the Riverlands. Tywin never turns on the Targaryens so Tywin becomes hand again to Rhaegar.

To try and bring the Kingdom back together Rhaegar sets up multiple arranged marriages to politically tie the Kingdoms together, He asks Tywin to offer Cersie's hand to Edmure Tully of Riverrun. He then sends Viserys (Jon) to apprentice with Ned at Winterfell.

Viserys (Rhaegar's brother) is married to Margery Tyrell and Dany is married to Rob Stark. Robb Arryn is arranged to marry one of the Princesses of Dorne

Rhaegar's wife was not harmed during the war so Dorne is as close as ever to the Throne.

Aegon is married to Rhaenys in Targaryen tradition, while Jon being the second son and of a second wife is free to marry who he chooses.

Having the Stark look and a fondness for the North while fostered in Winterfell, Jon chooses Alys Karstark for his wife.

[Blue_Bard]

1) Doesn't matter. Maybe they can retreat in order, maybe they can't. But their heirs can't yield. Benjen and Jon's next nephew/cousin have their own lives on the block, they will continue as much as Ned or Jon themselves would.

2) Because they can't negotiate to satisfy both sides. It's plain impossible to reach a compromise, leaving only the sword.

3) Because Rhaegar isn't especially popular with them, after rebelling they could never trust him anymore and they need to keep fighting to survive.

4) Then make that Aegon and Jon as soon as they can grip daggers themselves.

5) Meh. Not something the Faith approves of but the smallest problem.

6) After losing the first 100,000 men and 10,000,000 gold dragons, the Lords Paramount would start asking themselves one question: "Why should I follow that idiot, wasting my men and my money, instead of being king myself and keeping them/it?"

1) Why wouldn't Benjen/whoever yield? Assumption 2: Rhaegar is not interested in continuing the cycle of violence. He has already issued blanket pardons to any lesser rebels who will kneel (in your version, Ned and Jon fled before they could be sent to the Wall), why would he not leave Benjen in peace? Plus, Rhaegar would now have as prisoners the flower of the Northern and Vale nobility, who marched south and were captured the day after the Trident. If the North and Vale don't stand down, those folks aren't going home, so all Rhaegar has to do is sit there while the North and Vale keep men unsustainably under arms. If they march south, he calls his banners, but if they just sit behind their natural defenses eventually their people will be fed up.

This is not total war to the destruction of enemy houses. Rhaegar is neither Aerys nor Tywin Lannister. Ned and Jon are not Robert. Folks won't keep fighting for the sake of it (Stannis might, but he'd just as likely decide that Rhaegar is the rightful king after all, bend the knee, and accept LP of the Stormlands status).

2) Sure they could negotiate. Rhaegar: "I'll release all these prisoners I took at the Trident, and pardon everyone except you two who will go to the Wall (BTW, according to some secret prophecies the Night's Watch is going to be super important in about 20 years, so I will support you in trying to bring honor and respect back to it), and the realm will be at peace. No one will die." Ned and Jon: "We'll have our forces stand down, and let you be King." Sounds acceptable to both sides.

3) He is explicitly sending them where he will have no reason to kill them anymore, and has no reason to take revenge on any Houses that rebelled. In a few decades, which side you were on in Robert's Rebellion will be as quaint a question as which side you were on in the Blackfyre Rebellion or the Dance of the Dragons. Nobody but Ned and Jon will face any personal consequences, and they won't be killed. Again, even if they wanted to still fight, who would die for them in the face of a general pardon and no threat to their lives?

4) Yep, the Trident going the other way would not stop interesting things from going down in 298-300 AC. Aegon, Jon, Viserys...too many Targaryen princes, not to mention Starks (Robb, Benjen's kids, Jon).

5) The Faith will not make an issue of a King legitimizing his bastard. I don't recall the High Septon having much effect on the Blackfyres.

6) Which 100,000 men are being lost at this point? As I explained above, the war is over. Unless multiple of Lannister, Tyrell, and Martell decide to set up their own kingdoms, the combination of loyalists and pardoned rebels will be too strong to resist for anyone not hiding out behind natural boundaries (which is highly unlikely).