Dany is going to conquer most of known Essos

[Hippocras]

That's where the show differs from the books. Varys' warning to Ser Jorah was explicit.

I would have to look it up I guess. But Vary's goals are likely different from Illyrio's anyway. IF a warning was sent, it wasn't Illyrio's doing.

[jon rhaegar stark]

The murder of the last Targaryens would always draw attention. In fact, one of the first things JonCon asked should be what Illyrio was doing while Viserys and Dany were living as beggars and drifting away from here to there. His alibi would naturally be that he was safekeeping Aegon in his manse and the spies of the Usurper were always watching after the exiles. He could not have risked the boy’s fate etc. Once Aegon leaves the manse with JonCon, Illyrio brokered the deal with Drogo and invited them to his manse.

Instead of murdering them, it is better the lead them to a dead end where they have no chance of return and get themselves killed. There would be no doubt about the manner of their deaths in such a condition. JonCon or the others never suspected something was fishy about the death of Viserys. But we know that Tyrion figured out Illyrio specifically sent him to his death along with Dany.

And yes. The fAegon Conspiracy is a master piece, I'll give it to them.

I don’t think Illyrio/Varys expected Viserys to create instability with his would-be Dothraki screamers, let alone conquering the IT. They expected him to get himself killed and even if somehow he survived, they would not join his khalassar and march to Westeros with him. Of course some of the pawns (Trystan Rivers) might think like that but we know better than him.

The Dothraki have a terrible image in Westeros and bringing them to Westeros will bite Dany’s ass. Aegon needs a PR campaign and who can do that better than Varys? Relying on "slaving godless savages" is stupid. Instead, they need Westerosi forces and Dorne most of all.

:agree: ... and i have to add that danny never trusts Illyrio like her brother did that much is clear from her first chapter in GOT...if she comes to know that illyrio had (F)aegon all the time at pentos sending him away only before they both arrived ....and she will see that there is something filmsy because if the real aegon survived ...remember illyrio in Danny's early chapters all "your Grace" to viserys ...

and about ESSOS ...she already seems winning the battle at slaver bay.and seems to comine all the dothraki .....there will be no time for her to conquer all the cities before she reaches westeros..

i think the key will be cities like Volantis,Bravos,and Lys ..if they comes under her fold then others will bend their knee

[Hippocras]

:agree: ... and i have to add that danny never trusts Illyrio like her brother did that much is clear from her first chapter in GOT...if she comes to know that illyrio had (F)aegon all the time at pentos sending him away only before they both arrived ....and she will see that there is something filmsy because if the real aegon survived ...remember illyrio in Danny's early chapters all "your Grace" to viserys ...

and about ESSOS ...she already seems winning the battle at slaver bay.and seems to comine all the dothraki .....there will be no time for her to conquer all the cities before she reaches westeros..

i think the key will be cities like Volantis,Bravos,and Lys ..if they comes under her fold then others will bend their knee

People bring up the time thing, but if Dany conquers Vaes Dothrak and gets herself ALL of the Dothraki, flying around on Drogon to do it, she can send each hoard to attack a different city at pretty much the same time. I don't think she will attack all of the cities, but she will definitely attack the ones that have wronged her. Yunkai, Astapor, Qarth, Volantis, New Ghis. Leaving these places anything other than conquered would be admitting they won, which she will not do.

[Mithras]

We know that Illyrio urged Viserys to stay in Pentos.

Just like we know that Varys counselled Aerys to not open the gates to Tywin.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

*shudders*

And here is the last paragraph of the last page of the last book:

Finally, after all those years, Daenerys Stormborn, the Unburnt, Mother of the Dragons, set her foot on the Seven Kingdoms' soil. "Hey, everyone, it's my book, too!" - she yelled for all the world to hear. Yet no fuck was given.

[jon rhaegar stark]

People bring up the time thing, but if Dany conquers Vaes Dothrak and gets herself ALL of the Dothraki, flying around on Drogon to do it, she can send each hoard to attack a different city at pretty much the same time. I don't think she will attack all of the cities, but she will definitely attack the ones that have wronged her. Yunkai, Astapor, Qarth, Volantis, New Ghis. Leaving these places anything other than conquered would be admitting they won, which she will not do.

are these not who are already at the gates of meereen Astopor and yunkai and we have seen that XARO saying that quarth will give her war and volantis fleets coming to meereen ....so if the battle of meereen had been won then it doesnt mean they are efeated and conquered

i dont know maybe iam wrong

[Hippocras]

are these not who are already at the gates of meereen Astopor and yunkai and we have seen that XARO saying that quarth will give her war and volantis fleets coming to meereen ....so if the battle of meereen had been won then it doesnt mean they are efeated and conquered

i dont know maybe iam wrong

No the cities themselves would not be conquered at Meereen, only the mercenary and slave armies they sent.

[SeanF]

Just like we know that Varys counselled Aerys to not open the gates to Tywin.

That seems to have been genuinely good advice from Varys.

[jon rhaegar stark]

No the cities themselves would not be conquered at Meereen, only the mercenary and slave armies they sent.

in that case like u said she can send a khalassar to each city seeing their forces are already defeated and second sons switch sides to danny there is not a real army to fight a Khalasar

to your point about the WOW coming in next year ..i too think we will be having books in our hand at this time of next year ...

the show already finished bran and sansa 's arc and they will be entering into WOW atleast in their arc for sure

[jon rhaegar stark]

That seems to have been genuinely good advice from Varys.

i think varys did not know about the tywin's real intentions ...now if we are going to believe that varys had worked on the downfall of aerys since he got office ...he may have simply afraid that aerys can hold the KL with tywins help so he counseled against that

[frensj]

i think varys did not know about the tywin's real intentions ...now if we are going to believe that varys had worked on the downfall of aerys since he got office ...he may have simply afraid that aerys can hold the KL with tywins help so he counseled against that

It could also be that he was aware of what Tywin would do, but if he didn't let him in, the war would last longer still. So leaving him in would make less chaos and less weakened parties. Or was he not playing that game yet then?

[David C. Hunter]

Thanks for all the responses guys, but I do think I need to clarify a few things:

1.) The way GRRM worded his outline for Dany, she is not going to Westeros anytime soon, maybe not even in this book.

2.) I never said Dany will "rule" over Essos. This isn't about ruling. This is about Breaking Chains, revenege within Fire and Blood. I think she will free the slaves from the slave hotpoints, burn all those who resist the change. She will leave Essos a bloody mess like Slaver's Bay, and her Dothraki will be the ones raping, burning and pillaging many of the locations. If they refuse to join, I can see the Dothraki split up into main factions and essentially annhilating Qohor, Norvos and Qarth. The army is too big and they have always wanted to do it and this is their moment. Dany is a Dragon Rider, they will obey her. The ones that don't wil burn alive. Period.

3.) I agree with the notion that Volantis has a high potential to be her base of operations.

4.) I forgot to mention the significance of the R'hllor and his worshippers. The Red Gods heart is in Volantis and she will already be deemed a savior. The Red God is only increasing inpopularity as well as starting revolts in other cities. She may have more of a following then once realized. Maybe some territories will join her.

5.) It's a forgone conclusion that Slaver's Bay, Vaes Dothrak, Dothraki Sea, Volantis and Pentos will fall to her in one of a multitude of ways, but I also say that Qohor, Qarth, Lys, Myr and Tyrosh have an equal amount of potential to being conquered. The ones I believe that probably won't fall to her will be Norvos, Braavos, Lorath and Ib because of difficulty, distance, no ties to slavery and also the fact that Braavos seems to be the only one looking far ahead at this possibility. Braavos is tied to the North and I believe will fight the Dragon will the time comes for the War for the Dawn.

6.) It's really not that time consuming. If you look at a map and you view everything east of the Forest of Qohor, the section is mostly made up of the Dothraki Sea, ruins, Qarth, Slaver's Bay and Valyria. The Dothraki Sea will be Danys, as will be Slaver's Bay(I don't mean rule, I mean burnt to ashes.) Which leaves Qarth, who has declared wra on her, and Valyria, which is on the way to Volantis and is tied to her heritage...It is also a ruin. This makes up a majority of known Essos. That's potentiially millions of people literally moving West with all the free cities in their path.

Bottomline: DANY IS NOT GOING TO LEAVE ANYONE WITH SLAVES IN ESSOS. Period. She didnt go through the trouble in Slaver's Bay, jut to be like "Ok Pentos, I'll allow you to keep having slaves"

-Volantis and Pentos are scheduled to fall

-Dany wants revenge on Qarth, Dothraki always wanted to pillage it, and they have declared war on her

-Lys, Myr and Tyrosh are all into slave trade I believe, thus Dany will ask them to stop, join or burn.

-I believe Lorath, Ib, and Braavos are safe (For now) for many reasons

-Which leaves the only wildcards in Qohor and Norvos.

Norvos is surrounded by mountains, waterfalls and all types of shit. Might be difficult and out of the way. But Qohor and their Forest is in the direct way of the Khalasar horde that will be moving west. They have a history with the Dothraki that the Dothraki will probably want to rectify and this time there are no unsullied to help them.

...So, high potential, Dany will conquer/burn the Dothraki Sea, Vaes Dothrak, Qarth, Qohor, Pentos, Volantis and the Disputed Lands...I think that qualifies for "most" of Essos. But I feel like all will feel her wrath

7.) I know many are saying that the Valyrian Freehold couldnt conquer Most of Essos with an army of Dragons, so how can Dany do it?

-The Valyrians did conquer most of Essos

-The Valyrians actually tried to coexist and rule with the other terriroties and only burned them to ash when they wouldnt stop rebelling (e.g. Rhyonar wars, Ghiscari Wars)

-The Valyrians never united all of their armies to fight a common enemy. They usually never called on Valyria (Where most of the Dragons were) until they desperately needed them, thus allowing certain territories to settle their own disputes.

-Dany doesnt have much patience for ruling, she is burning these cities for payback and to free slaves, they will be ruins just like Valyria when she is done with them.

-Because Valyrians basically compartmentalized thier rule and armies....they never gathered a calvary of over a million riders.

-Im sure if the Valyrians wanted to idiotically burn all cities to dust, they could have, but they actually wantes to preserve their Empire.

-It really didnt take Aegon and his sisters very long to conquer all of Westeros, which ultimately is a little larger than western Essos (West of the Qohor Forest)

-I do expect Dany to split her army and conquer multiple territories and for her to basically say to her Dothraki, "If they do not agree to my terms, give them no quarter"

8.) Stop worrying about Dany and PR, because she isn't going to give a damn much longer. She is here to conqur. Period. She won't care what people of Westeros think about her Khalasar or Unsullied. She IS the Khalessi. They are her people, not the people of Westeros (A fact she hasn't fully realized yet)

[sj4iy]

Going home: Dany and Tyrion will be returning to Westeros sometime in late TWOW.

Embracing her house words: She will be on a murderous rampage. She will set Westeros, and everyone on her way there, on fire.

Because that's what a good ruler does.

[David C. Hunter]

I disagree on Westeros. She will not be burning Westeros.

Aegon burned Westeros. Why wont Dany, because she is good? Aegon, by all accounts was a good guy, just ambitious. As is Dany. Everyone will Burn. She's not exactly a flexible Queen.

[khalhotpie]

That seems to have been genuinely good advice from Varys.

Yeah the thing with varys and the mad king is vey much the def of the old joke saying 'just because you're paranoid doesnt mean they arent out to get you'

Varys no doubt felt a westeros under a targ dynasty would be much easier for aegon to take and thus gave good advice ie keep those gates shut.

His whisperings to the mad king about plots agaisnt him wernt (as we see with the growing alliance after the 9 penny kings war) wernt unfounded its just they were reaching the ear of someone already far too deep into madness to be of use.

[SeanF]

Aegon burned Westeros. Why wont Dany, because she is good? Aegon, by all accounts was a good guy, just ambitious. As is Dany. Everyone will Burn. She's not exactly a flexible Queen.

Aegon didn't burn everything, But, he did deal pretty ruthlessly with people who resisted him.

Dany would presumably act in much the same way.

[Hippocras]

I am not sure it is necessary for her to burn everything to win. She just needs to show she is willing to, and that she certainly would come back and burn them all if they try to bring back slavery like Yunkai and Astapor did. Some of cities might survive by yielding.

Also, the reason the Essos cities can't win is that pretty much none of them still have their own free citizen armies. They are all defended by slaves and sellswords, who have no real reason to fight for them.

[sj4iy]

Aegon burned Westeros. Why wont Dany, because she is good? Aegon, by all accounts was a good guy, just ambitious. As is Dany. Everyone will Burn. She's not exactly a flexible Queen.

Why? Why would she go to Westeros and indiscriminately burn shit? It makes no sense.

[Sun]

Because that's what a good ruler does.

What gave you the idea Dany is a good ruler? She is a conqueror, no more, no less.

[Ingelheim]

That seems to have been genuinely good advice from Varys.

I still don't know why he said that. Varys must have known about Aerys's intentions.