Seriously, where's the logic in Balon's plan?

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

What makes no sense to me is how Theon's warding actually worked. If balon is crazy and stupid and hates his son, why did the warding work for peace? Then, the moment the warding ends, embark on the most misguided campaign

[KittensRuleBeetsDrool]

There is no logic to it. Not strategic logic, not diplomatic / political logic, not Old Way logic, not even personal logic. It is the most dumb-ass idea in the series.

Imre Florent and Stafford Lannister were merely inattentive to the point of incompetence. Quentyn Martell let his desperation overcome his realism. What Balon did is another order of magnitude of stupidity - the execution went according to plan, but being able to carry out a terrible & senseless idea is actually worse than getting nowhere at all with it.

It is only possible for Balon's plan to work if Tywin Lannister happens to be so magnanimous a guy that he just awards himThe North in gratitude for saving the Lannisters' asses, and also if Tywin / Joffrey are willing to look upon himk as a king in his own right. Oh, and the Northmen also do not hold grudges or have ambitions to replace the Starks, nor know to fight you on their own ground. Oh, and Stannis decides that he gives no fucks about the realm and moves to Asshai to become a monk. Then and only than does Balon's plan "work". And also if winter isn't actually coming.

This. Balon = dumb. So dumb that he couldn't pour pee out of a boot with step-by-step instructions on the heel. So dumb he couldn't find his own ass with both hands. Intelligence does not run in the Greyjoys, with the possible exception of Euron. Asha got her brains from the Harlaw side of the family, I'm sure.

If the Ironborn rulers had any sense, they'd turn themselves into a trade empire on the lines of Braavos (also a small chain of islands). Even better, they could get Gylbert Farwynd as their own personal Henry the Navigator and send him on a voyage across the Sunset Sea. Gylbert wasn't crazy, he was right, there are lands in the Sunset Sea, and beyond that is Asshai. The Ironborn could set themselves up for trade with Asshai and Ulthos or whatever that continent to the west is called, and become stinkin' rich.

But Balon's too dumb. There really is no logic in his plan. If he wanted to make an ally of Tywin, he would have to swear fealty to the Iron Throne and attack the north as Tywin's ally. Or, he could have accepted Robb as an ally, gained a crown, perhaps Sansa as a wife for Theon, and plundered Lannisport.

But Balon's way is the stupid way. And now the Greyjoy family is going to die out unless Asha gets married and has kids, which she hasn't been inclined to do so far.

[Pod The Rod]

This. Balon = dumb. So dumb that he couldn't pour pee out of a boot with step-by-step instructions on the heel. So dumb he couldn't find his own ass with both hands. Intelligence does not run in the Greyjoys, with the possible exception of Euron. Asha got her brains from the Harlaw side of the family, I'm sure.

If the Ironborn rulers had any sense, they'd turn themselves into a trade empire on the lines of Braavos (also a small chain of islands). Even better, they could get Gylbert Farwynd as their own personal Henry the Navigator and send him on a voyage across the Sunset Sea. Gylbert wasn't crazy, he was right, there are lands in the Sunset Sea, and beyond that is Asshai. The Ironborn could set themselves up for trade with Asshai and Ulthos or whatever that continent to the west is called, and become stinkin' rich.

But Balon's too dumb. There really is no logic in his plan. If he wanted to make an ally of Tywin, he would have to swear fealty to the Iron Throne and attack the north as Tywin's ally. Or, he could have accepted Robb as an ally, gained a crown, perhaps Sansa as a wife for Theon, and plundered Lannisport.

But Balon's way is the stupid way. And now the Greyjoy family is going to die out unless Asha gets married and has kids, which she hasn't been inclined to do so far.

There are any number of things the Ironborn could do to uplift themselves. But they are determined to stay in the Stone Age. Viserys Targaryen would've ruled them better.

I'm pretty sure Asha is already pregnant with Qarl's kid.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

There are any number of things the Ironborn could do to uplift themselves. But they are determined to stay in the Stone Age. Viserys Targaryen would've ruled them better.

I'm pretty sure Asha is already pregnant with Qarl's kid.

Oh, absolutely Viserys would have done better. His plan was "find allies, then attack." Fairly reasonable and superior to "attack potential allies, wait for them to flay you"

[hodorisfaclessman]

what exactly does balon get for supporting robb?

recognition of his independece ? cool cheers kid maybe pat my head and tell me im a good boy while ur at it

support? the north has no navy , the golden tooth can be held from huge forces with a few thousand men so the north doesnt really seem like it can offer much ( bear in mind no one could have predicted robb would bypass the tooth with his wolf warging scouting abilities)

land? will robb give him bear island or the stoney shore then? nope

the westerlands has gold whoch the ironborn although poor have no problems getting more of but the north has land and wood and game which they need to grow stronger.

The north has no navy , vast coastlines and land to make ogainised defence hard, its remaing forces are larger than what the westerlands has left by far(20-30k vs say 15kish) but they are spread over an area bigger than all of westeros combined and the remaining leaders are a child(bran) and a percieved coward(manderly)

plus theres the fact that the best men the north has can be taken out of the game in one stroke (99.99% of westeros feels moat calin once held the north cant be taken from the south .........they dont know of the crannogmen routes)

The westerlands has by contrast a much smaller coastline , a naval force which although much smaller if used correctly could wreck havoc on the ironborns attacks, 10k men and cavalry not spread out but concentrated in one fighting force and barely 3 days ride from the sea, casterly rock and lannisport looming large and of course finaly tywin sitting at harrenhall with 20k men and if he decides the crown is lost (which looks most likely) hel go back to the westerlands to rebuild (whod have forseen edmure tully could stop tywin ' rains of castermere' lannister )

[AdmiraloftheDothrakiSea]

what exactly does balon get for supporting robb?

recognition of his independece ? cool cheers kid maybe pat my head and tell me im a good boy while ur at it

support? the north has no navy , the golden tooth can be held from huge forces with a few thousand men so the north doesnt really seem like it can offer much ( bear in mind no one could have predicted robb would bypass the tooth with his wolf warging scouting abilities)

land? will robb give him bear island or the stoney shore then? nope

the westerlands has gold whoch the ironborn although poor have no problems getting more of but the north has land and wood and game which they need to grow stronger.

The north has no navy , vast coastlines and land to make ogainised defence hard, its remaing forces are larger than what the westerlands has left by far(20-30k vs say 15kish) but they are spread over an area bigger than all of westeros combined and the remaining leaders are a child(bran) and a percieved coward(manderly)

plus theres the fact that the best men the north has can be taken out of the game in one stroke (99.99% of westeros feels moat calin once held the north cant be taken from the south .........they dont know of the crannogmen routes)

The westerlands has by contrast a much smaller coastline , a naval force which although much smaller if used correctly could wreck havoc on the ironborns attacks, 10k men and cavalry not spread out but concentrated in one fighting force and barely 3 days ride from the sea, casterly rock and lannisport looming large and of course finaly tywin sitting at harrenhall with 20k men and if he decides the crown is lost (which looks most likely) hel go back to the westerlands to rebuild (whod have forseen edmure tully could stop tywin ' rains of castermere' lannister )

Are you forgetting that the North has two coasts? Balon had no shot to ever extend beyond Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square and the Stony Shore. The Ryswells and Dustins left large forces in the North whilst Robb rode south. White Harbor is well defended and doesn't lack people. We know that the Umbers, Karstarks and Boltons all had strong garrisons left behind. Good luck to any Ironborn trying to extend east. Their only hope is to plunder and leave. There's no way in hell they could hold onto that land. The only reason they even had any success was because Ser Rodrik was dealing with Ramsay and had trouble trying to keep the Bolton and Manderly men from killing each other whilst fighting over the Hornwood lands. Oh and the strongest of the Ironborn's forces under Victarion were in constant danger from being hit with poison arrows.

[Bryanfury]

There was no logic, period. It was a personal vendetta. The logical option of invading the North would have been to do so without declaring independence. That Balon declared independence and expected the Throne to treat with him fairly is illogical and, as we can see in the text, was completely the wrong thing to do. In the end Balon achieved nothing but the loss of hundreds, if not thousands, of men in an invasion that gave him no wealth, power, or influence. The remaining holdfast still under Ironborn control isn't going to last very long in TWoW

[Ser Eric]

Balon's pride and thirst for revenge (misdirected revenge at that) overpowered simple logic. He should have taken Robb's offer or if he hadn't he should have made some sort of aliance with Tywin BEFORE he attacked the North.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Are you forgetting that the North has two coasts? Balon had no shot to ever extend beyond Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square and the Stony Shore. The Ryswells and Dustins left large forces in the North whilst Robb rode south. White Harbor is well defended and doesn't lack people. We know that the Umbers, Karstarks and Boltons all had strong garrisons left behind. Good luck to any Ironborn trying to extend east. Their only hope is to plunder and leave. There's no way in hell they could hold onto that land. The only reason they even had any success was because Ser Rodrik was dealing with Ramsay and had trouble trying to keep the Bolton and Manderly men from killing each other whilst fighting over the Hornwood lands. Oh and the strongest of the Ironborn's forces under Victarion were in constant danger from being hit with poison arrows.

It does but theres no reason he cant take the rest, if anything theons forces taking winterfell and torrens sqaure show balon overestimated what robb would leave behind.

The ryswells and dustins are on the coast facing the ironborn and both sent the bulk of their forces south ..lady dustin says she sent the minimum she could get away with so thatl still be the bulk of her armed forces.

The rest u mention did the same , theres literaly about 20-25k fighting men left in the north and they are spread out and few are amonst the best to resist the full 35k or so ironborn forces.

and yeah we know vic felt some insurgency tactics at moat cailin..he still held it as did the just over 63 men he left.

[Colonel Green]

The rest u mention did the same , theres literaly about 20-25k fighting men left in the north and they are spread out and few are amonst the best to resist the full 35k or so ironborn forces

The Ironborn don't have anything close to 35,000 men.

They had no prospect of extending control further than the lands they already held. Every single Ironborn commander who actually visits the North says as much. It's an utterly bankrupt strategy.

And winter is coming. If Robb's strategic circumstances had been even slightly better he could have just left Victarion and co. to freeze their asses over at Moat Cailin for the winter. With the ice and snow slicing up whatever supply lines existed, things would have gotten Lord of the Flies there pretty quickly.

[hodorisfaclessman]

The Ironborn don't have anything close to 35,000 men.

They had no prospect of extending control further than the lands they already held. Every single Ironborn commander who actually visits the North says as much. It's an utterly bankrupt strategy.

And winter is coming. If Robb's strategic circumstances had been even slightly better he could have just left Victarion and co. to freeze their asses over at Moat Cailin for the winter. With the ice and snow slicing up whatever supply lines existed, things would have gotten Lord of the Flies there pretty quickly.

pretty much every thread we've had here on est forces has them at around 30-35k men

They can very easily take the remaining eastside of the north and move west , the northerners would have to orgainse what reamins of their vastly spread out forces left to resist.

He didnt know it was comming yet

[Colonel Green]

pretty much every thread we've had here on est forces has them at around 30-35k men

Those estimates would be wrong. Nothing in the books supports them having that many men. When they invade the North, two of the three prongs of the invasion force have less than 2000 men between them.

They can very easily take the remaining eastside of the north and move west

No, they can't, as all he sensible Ironborn point out.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Those estimates would be wrong. Nothing in the books supports them having that many men. When they invade the North, two of the three prongs of the invasion force have less than 2000 men between them.

No, they can't, as all he sensible Ironborn point out.

Feel free to search or google the old threads on the subject and the rationale behind them

they use 2 small forces one to size deepwood motte and theon and his men ttacks stoney shore as a distraction whereas vic and the iron fleet ( large force indeed) sieze moat cailin (overkill but its the lynchpin of the northern invasion plan ) Now for plot reasons they never follow up on it then balon dies

They could have or maybe just the eastern half we'l never know but to dicount a huge force with the felxibility their naval power gives them over a spread out foe would be daft.

[Colonel Green]

Feel free to search or google the old threads on the subject and the rationale behind them

they use 2 small forces one to size deepwood motte and theon and his men ttacks stoney shore as a distraction whereas vic and the iron fleet ( large force indeed) sieze moat cailin (overkill but its the lynchpin of the northern invasion plan ) Now for plot reasons they never follow up on it then balon dies

They could have or maybe just the eastern half we'l never know but to dicount a huge force with the felxibility their naval power gives them over a spread out foe would be daft.

Which ignores, again, that basically every Ironborn apart from Balon subsequently says that this was a dumb plan with no chance of success.

[Northernmonkey]

It was clearly a bit stupid to attack the North, but you've got to remember that it came off quite well for the Ironborn. They didn't lose a massive amount of men, and at the time of Balon's death they've still got enough ships to attack the reach in force and send a massive fleet to Essos. So in terms of results Balon's plan wasn't as bad as people make out.

If you want to criticise Balon for attacking the North I think that's fair, but I don't think allying with Robb would have been the right thing to do. For a start, Robb has no right to offer Balon independence because he's not trying to win the Iron Throne. So unless Robb completely removed the Lannisters from power then an alliance isn't going to get Balon independence. What if Robb's war is successful and Tywin offers the North independence in return for peace? Do you think Robb is going to say "not unless you give the Iron Islands independence too"? He'd betray Balon in a shot.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Which ignores, again, that basically every Ironborn apart from Balon subsequently says that this was a dumb plan with no chance of success.

they go along with balon (its not a culture where people dont speak out agaisnt authority) and are very keen to continue when vic suggests doing so at the kingsmoot. Asha tries to reason their lives arent worth pine cones , cobblestones and turnips .......but literaly then contradicts herself with how awesome the land there is and how good it would be for them if they were to grab only a bit of it through diplomacy.

They have a large orgainised force agaisnt a badly disorgainsed enemy

it makes no sense to begin bargaining while you can take potentialy everything by force anyway ...if the northerners begin to offer some resitance then maybe its time to talk.

[hodorisfaclessman]

It was clearly a bit stupid to attack the North, but you've got to remember that it came off quite well for the Ironborn. They didn't lose a massive amount of men, and at the time of Balon's death they've still got enough ships to attack the reach in force and send a massive fleet to Essos. So in terms of results Balon's plan wasn't as bad as people make out.

If you want to criticise Balon for attacking the North I think that's fair, but I don't think allying with Robb would have been the right thing to do. For a start, Robb has no right to offer Balon independence because he's not trying to win the Iron Throne. So unless Robb completely removed the Lannisters from power then an alliance isn't going to get Balon independence. What if Robb's war is successful and Tywin offers the North independence in return for peace? Do you think Robb is going to say "not unless you give the Iron Islands independence too"? He'd betray Balon in a shot.

Agreed this is the main issue .....what exactly can robb offer balon?

regonition is meaningless and a little condecending

support? north has no navy and at at the time theres no way anyone could forsee robbs wolf powers allowing him to get into the westerlands

land? hes not hading over lumps of northern land nor can he seemingly help him gain any westerlands land

hes basicaly asking him to reave on the westerlands coast and lose men so he can win his war and offers nowt but friendship in practical terms in return

[AdmiraloftheDothrakiSea]

It does but theres no reason he cant take the rest, if anything theons forces taking winterfell and torrens sqaure show balon overestimated what robb would leave behind.

The ryswells and dustins are on the coast facing the ironborn and both sent the bulk of their forces south ..lady dustin says she sent the minimum she could get away with so thatl still be the bulk of her armed forces.

The rest u mention did the same , theres literaly about 20-25k fighting men left in the north and they are spread out and few are amonst the best to resist the full 35k or so ironborn forces.

and yeah we know vic felt some insurgency tactics at moat cailin..he still held it as did the just over 63 men he left.

Yes they're both on the coast facing the ironborn and are in an important position where they can relieve the stony shore. House Ryswell breeds war horses that are suited to the North's terrain. The ironborn have no cavalry. How are they going to fight against cavalry on foot in a region where they have no advantage as they don't know the lands? How are they going to march on foot towards the east? You know how long a march from the Stony shore towards Karhold, the Last Hearth, the Hornwood lands, the Dreadfort, White Harbor, etc would take? They can't take any of those well fortified castles without taking large forces (especially since they suck at siege warfare anyway) and their supply lines would also be screwed.

Balon underestimated the forces left behind in the North. The Ryswells and Dustins left a lot of people behind. Else how could they have joined up with Ramsay in attacking Moat Cailin from the North. The forces they sent south were killed off in the Red Wedding. The only forces Bolton brings North are his own, the Karstark foot and the Freys. Yet the Ryswells and Dustins make up a portion of the forces sitting inside Winterfell. They also set fire to the remaining Iron Born ships on the Fever River. The Karstarks, Umbers, Boltons and Manderlys all had strong forces. Manderly has a mini army on his own. For a group of people that basically only know one on one combat on boats they'd suck in the north let's be real.

And who are you kidding, the Ironborn have 15-20k at most. Their region is the least populated, the smallest or second smallest and has the worst lands in Westeros. Even Dorne doesn't have 35k.

[Brandon_Snow]

Agreed.

How did Balon expect to take the North? It is the largest of the Seven Kingdoms in terms of landmass. The Ironborn would have to spread themselves thin, and overextend their supply lines with Northmen likely attacking those supply lines and practicing scorched earth tactics to leave nothing for the Ironborn to feed off of. The reserve force in the North is also about as large as the Ironborn invading force. It also goes in line with what Tyrion said about the mountain clans "They're fierce warriors, but not soldiers. In formal battle, discipline is more important than courage." Their advantage is in ship-to-ship combat which is a free-for-all.They lack the discipline needed in battle on the mainland, as demonstrated at Torrhen's Square when Rodrik's armored charge broke their shieldwall. That is not taking into account Northern winters which would significantly inhibit the Ironmen in hostile enemy territory with the Northmen having the advantage since they are accustomed to Northern winters and are fighting on the defensive in their home territory which they know better than the Ironborn.

Asha herself knows her father was delusional.

He wanted the entire North as all the Ironborn POV revealed.

This was Balon's plan, phase one: attack the North, phase two:?, phase three: Norht is successfully conquered and subdued. He had no clear plan on how to conquer the entire North, not a guy for long-term planning.

this

[hodorisfaclessman]

Yes they're both on the coast facing the ironborn and are in an important position where they can relieve the stony shore. House Ryswell breeds war horses that are suited to the North's terrain. The ironborn have no cavalry. How are they going to fight against cavalry on foot in a region where they have no advantage as they don't know the lands? How are they going to march on foot towards the east? You know how long a march from the Stony shore towards Karhold, the Last Hearth, the Hornwood lands, the Dreadfort, White Harbor, etc would take? They can't take any of those well fortified castles without taking large forces (especially since they suck at siege warfare anyway) and their supply lines would also be screwed.

Balon underestimated the forces left behind in the North. The Ryswells and Dustins left a lot of people behind. Else how could they have joined up with Ramsay in attacking Moat Cailin from the North. The forces they sent south were killed off in the Red Wedding. The only forces Bolton brings North are his own, the Karstark foot and the Freys. Yet the Ryswells and Dustins make up a portion of the forces sitting inside Winterfell. They also set fire to the remaining Iron Born ships on the Fever River. The Karstarks, Umbers, Boltons and Manderlys all had strong forces. Manderly has a mini army on his own. For a group of people that basically only know one on one combat on boats they'd suck in the north let's be real.

And who are you kidding, the Ironborn have 15-20k at most. Their region is the least populated, the smallest or second smallest and has the worst lands in Westeros. Even Dorne doesn't have 35k.

Lady dustins own words she sent the minimum she could get away with , she still has forces yes but the bulk are gone she kept as many as she could withoutdrawing attention to herself.

Her keep barrow hall in barrowtown is by a river and has woooden walls. She will have well under 1k men (generous) ....all that means shes easy pickings as is the even smaller sworn house nearby of house stout

The ryswells do breed horses yes and most of their armed forces again are trapped below the neck and their lands are facing the sunset sea...they are screwed.

Theon seemed to make good time marching from shore to winterfell and with torrens square they can sail supplies up to there and beyond

Those castles arent winterfell, have skeleton garrisons and the ironborn are excellent at taking keeps ....grappling hooks plus a lifetime of climbing rigging and ropes at sea wil mean undermanned forts and keeps will fall quite readily esp if taken unawares.

I mean its a little strange to say they are poor at taking castles when we've seen a fraction of their forces take 4 in no time

Again in her own words lady dusin only keeps as much as she possibly can without raising suspicions and she joins up with roose and the freys.......who ONLY get their extra forces up past the neck due to reek betraying the ironborn at moat cailin. Without them the 2nd most powerful house in the north (bolton) has just over 600 men and whatever was left to hold the dreadfort. The rest u mention will again only have a fraction of their forces left in keeps not any more impressive than torrens sqaure only manderly will have a concentrated force and thats of 3-4k estimated by the time of TWOW/ADWD due to his orders to stay and build and then his desire to avenge the starks.

again feel free to do a little search the subject has already been covered repeatedly they have thralls freeing up all their manpower for fighting and their main food source will be fishing , heres the first one that came up on a basic search on the subject.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/109134-what-are-the-current-states-of-military-forces-is-westeros/page-2

So getting back on track what again exactly can robb offer balon at the time he choses to release theon?

recognition? how nice

support in the westerlands ? Should balon have known robb had magic wolf scout powers which would allow him to bypass the tooth and get into the westerlands?

land? would robb give him bear island now? or the stoney shore?

hes basicaly asking him to have his men fight and die as they reave the westerlands so he can win his war and in return.....a hearty handshake , regonition and knowing theon will feel all snuggly inside.