TWOW & the five year gap

[Ser Gareth]

GRRM has said he knows how the story is going to end, and he pretty much knew this from the beginning. He has also insinuated that the journey to get to the end isn't something that has been fleshed out and the story is growing in the telling so it's entirely possible things have changed drastically from the way he originally envisaged. There are two assumptions I have made, based on GRRM's original comments:

1) He originally wanted to tell the entire story from the POV's of the characters in AGOT. As the series grew so did the amount of POV's but my assumption is that the only characters that really matter are those that had POV's from the first book. My basis for this assumption is that he already knew how the story was going to end when he first started writing AGOT so therefore those characters left alive are the ones who are going to be in the critical places at the critical times at the end of the series.

2) We all know about the famous five year gap and at that point the series was going to be 5 books. The 5 year gap would have taken place at the end of ASOS and if my memory serves me correctly the fourth book was going to START with Dany's invasion of Westeros. Flashbacks were going to be used to fill in the gaps and goings on of the previous 5 years. There was due to be one book after this one. So based on that fact Dany's invasion of Westeros would take a whole book and then there was more story to tell afterwards?

So now we have at least 7 books and as we start the 6th Dany is nowhere near getting to Westeros and I think the general consensus is that she probably won't get there in TWOW either. Or if she does it will be right at the end of the book.

I think it's clear that much of the goings on in the 5 year gap have probably been discarded all together and there is much more story been put in place. The Meerenese knot being a prime example of this. Makes you wonder how the 5 year gap would have approached that in a flashback. Was Dany getting married in Meereen always part of the plot for example?

My concern is that GRRM is changing his story, and this is why it is taking him so long to write (compared to ASOS which he wrote in rapid time and yet is as big as any of his books). But if we do work on the assumption that GRRM's end is the same as always, and therefore Dany's invasion will effectively be where he picks the original story back from (and even though there were two whole books to go from the start of that moment, it isn't necessarily the case he'll need to write two now as the backstory required from flashbacks is no longer necessary), then can we conclude the following?

1) The entire of TWOW exists within the time period of the 5 year gap, assuming Dany does finally reach Westeros at the books end.

2) Barristan lives until they reach Westeros. Unless in the original plot the plan was for Dany to remember Barristan dying but training new knights prior to it happening.

3) Aegon would have already been in Westeros at the start of the 4th book (which would have been a shocker to the audience as it came out of nowhere).

4) Jon Snow was either going to be Lord Commander for five years before being stabbed or that was also told in the 5 year gap as a flashback (not really sure how that would have worked).

Do you guys reckon TWOW will finally bridge the rest of the 5 year period (By my reckoning I think AFFC and ADWD probably only bridged maybe 18 months of it? If that?) or do you think GRRM has abandoned the whole 5 year timeline from the end of ASOS to Dany's invasion? And do you think characters that were probably originally penned to survive and be in the original 4th book may now actually die, e.g. Barristan, prior to their arrival?

[Blackfyre Gateau]

"3) Aegon would have already been in Westeros at the start of the 4th book (which would have been a shocker to the audience as it came out of nowhere)."

Are you 100% convinced that Aegon was always going to appear? I think he's one of the more positive plot developments in ADWD, but I'm not sure the alternative Targaryen / Blackfyre claimant would have necessarily emerged had he gone straight for a 5 year time jump and Dany's invasion kicking off.

[The Human Abstract]

Assumption 1 seems like an unlikely assumption. There is no basis for thinking that. Also there is no basis for thinking that Dany won't get near Westeros until the end of book 6.

GRRM has already said he's abandoning the 5 year thing. Most likely we are already through the part his 5 year gap would've skipped over.

[Talking Hodor]

I would have assumed the 5-year gap was a period of time in which relatively little occurred - kinda like books 4 and 5 - and now the story is starting to pick up again as of the end of book 5 and book 6. I can definitely see how changing up something like that would result in two slow books and enormous writing delays. Of course fans have waited 11 years, not five, so they're obviously chafed.

[Aaronomus]

I would have assumed the 5-year gap was a period of time in which relatively little occurred - kinda like books 4 and 5 - and now the story is starting to pick up again as of the end of book 5 and book 6. I can definitely see how changing up something like that would result in two slow books and enormous writing delays. Of course fans have waited 11 years, not five, so they're obviously chafed.

wat

[Duke O' Nooobs]

"3) Aegon would have already been in Westeros at the start of the 4th book (which would have been a shocker to the audience as it came out of nowhere)."

Are you 100% convinced that Aegon was always going to appear? I think he's one of the more positive plot developments in ADWD, but I'm not sure the alternative Targaryen / Blackfyre claimant would have necessarily emerged had he gone straight for a 5 year time jump and Dany's invasion kicking off.

I'm on the boat that if the 5 year gap survived, Aegon would never have been introduced. Or it just goes to show you that GRRM can make relevant characters appear with limited warning :bang:

[Ser Oromus Locke]

"3) Aegon would have already been in Westeros at the start of the 4th book (which would have been a shocker to the audience as it came out of nowhere)."

Are you 100% convinced that Aegon was always going to appear? I think he's one of the more positive plot developments in ADWD, but I'm not sure the alternative Targaryen / Blackfyre claimant would have necessarily emerged had he gone straight for a 5 year time jump and Dany's invasion kicking off.

Varys and Illyrio converse about their plans in aGoT. But yeah, it would've been a shocker..

But how would it have been told? Jon at the Wall: "We need more support from King Aegon in our effort to push the Whitewalkers back from the North!" To himself: A lot has changed since I died. My half-brother Aegon the Alive suddenly conquered Westeros with the Golden Company behind him, having acquired Dornish support as well through one of his marriages. The Dornish made it possible for him to sack KL, like the Lannister's once did.. Queen Cersei died after a trial, Queen Margaery died due to poisoning.. Stannis saved the North from the Ironborn, but couldn't stand when the Wall fell.. Then he married Sansa, who became the key to securing the North, Riverlands and the Vale. Aegon, you're too concerned with the Ironborn, after they sailed up the Mander and claimed the Reach..and are now using their enslaved dragon to attack Dorne and the Riverlands. And Auntie Dany and - fellow bastard - Uncle Tyrion and their two dragons having been spotted crossing the Narrow Sea from Essos.. Why can't he see the real threat is still up here? Dear Sansa, why can't you talk some sense into your husband. The North remembers, tell him what Bran saw and has told us!" Meanwhile in KL, a certain young FM slays King Aegon VI..

However, Dany and T-dwarf cruise up to the North, stop the Whitewalkers with the help of a giant wolfpack led by a Direwolf, they head back south, clash with the Ironborn at Casterly Rock, all actual dragons get killed in the fight - because Drogon suddenly went mad and attacked both Rhaegal and Viserion. Meanwhile, Queen Sansa has managed to put her child, Prince Baelor, on the Iron Throne.. Since Dany was only Aegon VI's aunt, Baelor is technically next in line, so Dany does nothing to claim the throne and peace returned to Westeros!

Until..... Dany's offspring and King Baelor II get into a next Dance of Dragons.. Dany's child claiming that Baelor's father was just a boy from Pisswater's bend - and he be the rightful heir!

But what about Queen Arianne? What about her child? Well.. Dornish deserts have proven to be infertile.. And, who ordered that FM to kill King Aegon VI? DUH, Queen Sansa of course! Prince Baelor=TPTWP/ASOIAF

Lovely thought, though this will never happen..

Assumption 1 seems like an unlikely assumption. There is no basis for thinking that. Also there is no basis for thinking that Dany won't get near Westeros until the end of book 6.

GRRM has already said he's abandoning the 5 year thing. Most likely we are already through the part his 5 year gap would've skipped over.

I think this thread's author is presupposing that what would've been told in flashbacks has been/will be told in AFFC/ADWD/TWOW.

GRRM abandoned the 5yrTS because of the Others-threat looking incredibly stupid if they waited 5 years.. So what I take from that is that during those 5 years, the Others would have made their move - but he didn't want to show that in a flashback. Hence I don't think we've skipped over those 5 years yet.

I would have assumed the 5-year gap was a period of time in which relatively little occurred - kinda like books 4 and 5 - and now the story is starting to pick up again as of the end of book 5 and book 6. I can definitely see how changing up something like that would result in two slow books and enormous writing delays. Of course fans have waited 11 years, not five, so they're obviously chafed.

I think you're right that GRRM had envisioned it like that at first, looking at Arya's training for instance and Cersei slowly losing power.. Until he realized that the Others should've attacked by then.. You're right about the rest though..

[Grrrod]

I'm on the boat that if the 5 year gap survived, Aegon would never have been introduced. Or it just goes to show you that GRRM can make relevant characters appear with limited warning :bang:

But if you take Bran's vision of the Hound, Kingslayer and stone giant as being Jon Connington, then...

The stone, the "thick, black blood." It's not so much of a stretch

[Ser Eric]

I don't think he has changed much.

The 1st book was divided into 3 (GoT, CoK, SoS).

The 5 year gap was discarded and it ended up spanning 2 more books (FfC, DwD)

And now WoW and DoS to finis of the series.

And I'm fairly sure that someone said that Aegon was in his original draft before he scrapped the 5 year plan. I'm glad he scrapped the five year gap, don't think that would have worked.

[Annara Snow]

I don't think he has changed much.

The 1st book was divided into 3 (GoT, CoK, SoS).

The 5 year gap was discarded and it ended up spanning 2 more books (FfC, DwD)

And now WoW and DoS to finis of the series.

And I'm fairly sure that someone said that Aegon was in his original draft before he scrapped the 5 year plan. I'm glad he scrapped the five year gap, don't think that would have worked.

The 5-year gap was the worst idea ever, I can't believe GRRM ever seriously considered it and needed so much time to understand that everyone will not stop doing important things just because he needed the Stark kids to grow up, especially not while the civil war was not over, with Tywin, Balon and Oberyn just having died, Stannis at the Wall etc.

[Ser Eric]

The 5-year gap was the worst idea ever, I can't believe GRRM ever seriously considered it and needed so much time to understand that everyone will not stop doing important things just because he needed the Stark kids to grow up, especially not while the civil war was not over, with Tywin, Balon and Oberyn just having died, Stannis at the Wall etc.

Yeah, fully agreed. I can see why he might have thought about it (I'm looking at Dany and Arya here) but it was never practical. You can't just suspend your story and pick it up 5 years later with the aid of flashbacks.

[bdub32689]

I don't really think the 5 year gap matters anymore. Like others have said the Gap was scrapped by GRRM pretty early on. GRRM had plans to end most of the books at very different spots, that may have allowed for a a gap to take place but he even admitted it was too hard to naturally incorporate any type of extended gap period.

[Arkash]

It's we readers who get the five years gap in the end...

[Konradsmith]

^Hehehehehe.

[oprahnoodlemantra]

For Dany and Jon the 4th book would have started with Daznak's Pit and For the Watch.

[rondo has three heads]

I'm on the boat that if the 5 year gap survived, Aegon would never have been introduced. Or it just goes to show you that GRRM can make relevant characters appear with limited warning :bang:

Or he could have been ruling for 5 years, and in the published version will only rule for half a book. It's all guesswork trying to figure what plot lines are new, which ones would have been shown in flashbacks, etc.

[Annara Snow]

For Dany and Jon the 4th book would have started with Daznak's Pit and For the Watch.

Those are climaxes to their arcs, starting like that would be a horrible idea.

[PatrickStormborn]

There are a couple of mistakes in the OP.

First, GRRM never intended the series to be 5 books. It was originally a trilogy, then four books, then he went straight to six books (skipping five), then finally seven.

He originally planned the series as a trilogy because there are three main conflicts, which he divided into the three books: the Starks vs the Lannisters; Daenerys; the Others. But "the tale grew in the telling", and eventually he ended up with a planned 6 books on his hands, with a five year gap taking place between ASoS (book 3) and ADwD (book 4). When describing the originally planned ADwD, he said it would show Daenerys Targaryen's return to Westeros, and the conflicts that creates.

With this in mind, I don't think the original plan was ever for Dany to immediately invade Westeros. I believe her chapters would have started with Drogon's return to Meereen and her departure, followed by her meeting the Dothraki. She would probably invade Westeros around halfway through the book.

Aegon is a more complicated matter... I don't think he would already have invaded Westeros, so what would he have been doing? But regardless, I imagine he would still have to invade Westeros before Dany.

Those are climaxes to their arcs, starting like that would be a horrible idea.

Well, they're actually NOT climaxes to their arcs - they're the catalyst for getting them out of their current situations and into new ones. GRRM manages to present them as climaxes in ADwD because he had to, but there's a reason most readers aren't satisfied with where he ended their narratives.

[Werthead]

Are you 100% convinced that Aegon was always going to appear? I think he's one of the more positive plot developments in ADWD, but I'm not sure the alternative Targaryen / Blackfyre claimant would have necessarily emerged had he gone straight for a 5 year time jump and Dany's invasion kicking off.

Aegon's appearance is very heavily foreshadowed in the earlier books, but most overwhelmingly in the House of Undying section. That was always part of the masterplan, and GRRM hinted at it in interviews before the Five-Year Gap was abandoned.

ADWD originally opened with Daenerys chaining the dragons, I believe. Then we'd have been into the wedding and the arena pretty quickly.

From what we can tell the material in the original five-year gap would have been:

Sam travelling to Oldtown and beginning his training.

Arya training in Braavos: it's been suggested that her teaser chapter from TWoW would have been her first post-5YG chapter but I don't know if that's been confirmed.

Jon commanding on the Wall, but the Night of Knives would have been post-gap. I assume there'd have been some build-up to it as well.

Daenerys in Meereen. GRRM has said her first post-5YG chapter would have been locking up the dragons, so surprisingly quite a lot of ADWD would have been in the post-5YG time period.

Bran learning with the Three-Eyed Crow.

Sansa in the Eyrie, with the revelation of Harry the Heir and Littlefinger's masterplan probably coming post-gap.

Brienne in the Riverlands. This is one of the things that convinced GRRM to drop it, as Brienne searching Westeros for five years straight seemed rather unrealistic.

Cersei ruling in King's Landing. Her downfall and arrest by the Faith are post-gap material, confirmed by Littlefinger ("I thought she'd take five years to screw everything up, but I guess I gave her too much credit.")

The big unknowns were Stannis in the North, as neither Stannis nor Roose would be likely to hang around for five years letting the other build up their forces, and Tyrion. It's unclear if Tyrion would have joined Dany earlier, spent years with Illyrio before leaving or some other variation.

[Blutrabe]

I'm on the boat that if the 5 year gap survived, Aegon would never have been introduced. Or it just goes to show you that GRRM can make relevant characters appear with limited warning :bang:

As others have said, Aegon has always been part of the plan. GRRM once said that there was going to be a Dance of Dragons 2.0.

Like others have said the Gap was scrapped by GRRM pretty early on.

Not that early on actually. He wrote quite a bit of material before realising that it didn't work out.

For Dany and Jon the 4th book would have started with Daznak's Pit and For the Watch.

I don't think so. In the first Dany preview chapter that was released for ADWD (before there was a AFFC), her story did start with the fighting pit, but nothing of note happened there. It was just a way to introduce the politics of Meereen and Dany was not married yet. So, in Dany's case, not much really did happen during the 5-year gap and her current ADWD storyline is very similar to the original one. However, because of the Meereenese Knot, she had to wait for all the important people to arrive in Meereen, which held her arc back. I think she actually was supposed to get to Westeros in ADWD (however, I don't think GRRM would have been able to tell the whole story of the DoD2.0 in ADWD. But maybe it was always supposed to happen in TWOW).

Concerning Jon, the reader needs to know what leads to his stabbing. To tell that only in flashbacks would be very unsatisfying. I think his story is one of the few original storylines that has found its way completely into the current book (not unchanged of course, but with the important plot points and ending intact).

The big unknowns were Stannis in the North, as neither Stannis nor Roose would be likely to hang around for five years letting the other build up their forces, and Tyrion. It's unclear if Tyrion would have joined Dany earlier, spent years with Illyrio before leaving or some other variation.

It's possible that Stannis really would have lingered at Castle Black, which is definitely one of the things that didn't work. I think Tyrion's story is the same as the original story because Aegon had to be introduced somehow. It would have started at Pentos though, obviously.

---

We know that GRRM intended to write a huge prologue for pre-gap ADWD from the Ironborn and Dornish viewpoints. They were to cover the five years, but are now incorporated into the story. I've read somewhere that, when GRRM scrapped the gap, he intended to write a book to cover the gap and bring the characters to the point where they are at the start of the original ADWD, which would become AFFC. If you look at AFFC, most of it is actually gap material: At the end of ADWD, Sam and Arya are still at the point where they would be post-gap. Which leads me to think about Cersei, Jaime and Brienne. What if Cersei's original ADWD arc would have started with her imprisoned, reflecting about the past events? And Jaime's arc could have started with him taking Riverrun and then meeting Brienne on the road. Interesting, but who knows. Whatever is the case, when GRRM split AFFC/ADWD into two books, he didn't only do it geographically, but also (coincidentally?) split it into gap and non-gap storylines¹, i.e. storylines that only cover the five year gap and those that mostly cover original ADWD material.

The situation whe have now is quite complicated. We have a book (AFFC) that consists of mostly gap material and maybe/probably some original ADWD material. We have another book (ADWD) that consists of some gap material and mostly original ADWD material and then we have a third book (TWOW) that consists of original ADWD material and, well, TWOW.

¹ Bran's arc in ADWD is the only gap storyline in that book