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Julia Martell

Theories: the plausibility index

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So, I'm slowly and painfully coming to terms with the fact that we will be waiting YEARS for tWoW and going over the same material again, and again, and again, and again... Yay to turning Stannis into Chuck Norris and saying awful things about Dany!



So to distract me from the staring into the abyss as it stares back into me, let's play a game.



Here's a list of some popular theories, rate them from 1 to 10 with 10 being so plausible you more or less consider it canon, and 1 being an explosion in a pot factory.



Try to be amusing so I don't get too depressed.



R+L=J


The Great Northern Conspiracy


fAegon is a Blackfyre


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs


Tyrion is a secret Targ


Varys is a Blackfyre


Coldhands is the Night's King


Gravedigging Hound


Robet Strong is the Mountain


Jojen Paste


The Green Grace is the Harpy


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne


Missaindei is a Faceless Man


Oberyn poisoned Tywin


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom


Theon Durden


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree


Alleras = Sarella



ETA:



Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one!


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R+L=J - 10 - fact and naysayers are just jealous



The Great Northern Conspiracy - 7 - the specifics change but definitely more to it than just Manderlay



fAegon is a Blackfyre - 8 - seems fitting



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 1 - changing to zero because stupid



Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3 - changing to 1 because obviously, but I do like that "symmetry" aspect someone came up with once



Varys is a Blackfyre - 6 - eh just a feeling



Coldhands is the Night's King - 6 - also just a feeling but the damn show....



Gravedigging Hound - 10 - obvious



Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10 - basically stated



Jojen Paste - 10 - if he's not in the paste then he is definitely dead somehow. that passage is frickin eerie



The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8 - I'm still holding out hope for Daario being the harpy :P



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 1 - If I never have to see her stupid name again I'll be happy



Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 5 - strangely plausible...



Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 4 - I really hope so



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 4 :frown5: If i had a magic wand, this would be my wish theory...



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10 - ghost of high heart does not lie



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 7 - idk they claim it but then again, extraordinary claims, extraordinary evidence...



Theon Durden - 1 - hate it. just hate it.



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10 - the evidence against.. .what evidence against?



Alleras = Sarella - 10 - all but stated.




ETA: High Sparrow = Howland is not a theory; it's fanfiction.


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Here are mine:



R+L=J: 9.5 I will be shocked and embarrassed if this one isn't true



The Great Northern Conspiracy: 7 I want it to be true



fAegon is a Blackfyre: 8 Fits the facts, guys.



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 3 I would hate this, but it's technically plausible.



Tyrion is a secret Targ: 3



Varys is a Blackfyre: 7



Coldhands is the Night's King: 8 And he should get a POV



Gravedigging Hound: 10. Canon.



Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10. Who else.



Jojen Paste: 6 I find myself strangely attracted to this one.



The Green Grace is the Harpy: 7



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 2. Nah, I don't buy it.



Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 4 This would be awesome, but probably not.



Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 8 +1 point for pure awesomeness



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 1 Word of God is good enough for me.



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9 All but canon as far as I'm concerned.



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 7 I love this idea.



Theon Durden: 6



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 8



Alleras = Sarella: 10. Might as well just introduce herself.


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R+L=J- 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy- 7

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 9

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 3

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3

Varys is a Blackfyre - 5

Coldhands is the Night's King - 2

Gravedigging Hound - 9

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10

Jojen Paste - 8

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 9

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 1

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 6

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 1 (or maybe 0, since this has been pretty much confirmed not to be true)

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 9

Theon Durden - 7

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9

Alleras = Sarella -10

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I like this hardness scale for theories. Although, as pointed out in one of the comments, "Tormund's member" rather than "Valyrian Steel" should be the term for the most robust theories.



R+L=J: 10 (Martin pretty much admitted when he said that D&D guessed it right. There is no Ashara on the show. :-))



The Great Northern Conspiracy: 7


fAegon is a Blackfyre: 8


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 1


Tyrion is a secret Targ: 0


Varys is a Blackfyre: 0


Coldhands is the Night's King: no opinion


Gravedigging Hound: 9


Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10


Jojen Paste: 4


The Green Grace is the Harpy: no opinion


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 2


Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 1


Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 8


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 1


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 0


Theon Durden: not familiar with that one


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 10


Alleras = Sarella: 10


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R+L=J = 20000000000000000




The Great Northern Conspiracy = 7



fAegon is a Blackfyre = 9



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs = 3



Tyrion is a secret Targ = 6



Varys is a Blackfyre = 7 (or a Brightflame)



Coldhands is the Night's King = 4



Gravedigging Hound = 8



Robet Strong is the Mountain = 10



Jojen Paste = 2



The Green Grace is the Harpy = 9



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne = 5



Missaindei is a Faceless Man = 2



Oberyn poisoned Tywin = 2



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North = 6



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon = 9



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom = 3



Theon Durden = 2



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree = 10



Alleras = Sarella = 10


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R+L=J - 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 9

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 9

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 3

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3

Varys is a Blackfyre - 8

Coldhands is the Night's King - 6

Gravedigging Hound - 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10

Jojen Paste - 2

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 9

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 5

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 4

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 3

Theon Durden - 0

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10

Alleras = Sarella - 10

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R+L=J: 10, duh.



The Great Northern Conspiracy: 7.5, and I'm only addressing the very basic thesis here in that the North is definitely not in it for Stannis.



fAegon is a Blackfyre: 9.5, leaving a little room for a potential Brighfyre lineage, but the point is, he didn't come from the Rhaegun.



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: -5, They get a neg 5 instead of neg 10 simply because I find the argument so amusing.



Tyrion is a secret Targ: see above



Varys is a Blackfyre: 4.8, At times I have leaned towards Varys being in it for the Blackfyres, but there are a lot of issues with the theory, namely, why the fuck would he stay true to Illyrio?



Coldhands is the Night's King: 5, I'll go middle of the road here because I'm not all that familiar with any theories about Coldhands.



Gravedigging Hound: 10, this seems a given



Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10, as does this one



Jojen Paste: anywhere from 1 to 10. I've read that passage a couple dozen times. It's eerie and dark and I'm not quite sure.



The Green Grace is the Harpy: 9, the graces are fairly major in the city and serve a variety of functions (healers, sex workers, etc). Not too hard to consider that the top of that tier lies a woman who holds a lot of sway.



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 1, But Ashara Dayne as Howland's wife and Jojen and Meera's mother would get a 6



Missaindei is a Faceless Man: wut? is this a thing? 1



Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 5, another middle of the road. I think there is good evidence Tywin was gonna be killed regardless.



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 3



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 8



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: I can't remember what I think about this, so I'll use a 3 since I haven't used that yet. I think.



Theon Durden: 5, I like these 5s.



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 10. Is this still in question?



Alleras = Sarella: 10, also still in question?


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R+J=L...10

The Great Northern Conspiracy...5

fAegon is a Blackfyre...8

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs...8 (Going to be a lot of angry fans around here when it comes out they are Targs. I can't wait.)

Tyrion is a secret Targ...1

Varys is a Blackfyre...8

Coldhands is the Night's King...7

Gravedigging Hound...10

Robert Strong is The Mountain...10

Jojeen Paste...8

The Green Grace is The Harpy...5

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne...7

Missaindei is a Faceless Man...3

Oberyn poisoned Tywin...10

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North...5

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon...10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom...4

Theon Durden...0

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree...

.10

Alleras = Sarella...10

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R+L=J - 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 6

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 7

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 3

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3

Varys is a Blackfyre - 3

Coldhands is the Night's King - 3

Gravedigging Hound - 9

Robert Strong is the Mountain - 9

Jojen Paste - 4

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 2

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 8

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 4

Theon Durden - 3

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 8

Alleras = Sarella - 10

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R+L=J - 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 10

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 1

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 1

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 1

Varys is a Blackfyre - 3

Coldhands is the Night's King - 1

Gravedigging Hound - 10

Robert Strong is the Mountain - 10

Jojen Paste - 1

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 4

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 6

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 1

Theon Durden - 4

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10

Alleras = Sarella - 10

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You won't be waiting a long time for these theories. Even though this section is for the books only, history has shown us that the theories stop being discussed here once the show confirms them.


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You won't be waiting a long time for these theories. Even though this section is for the books only, history has shown us that the theories stop being discussed here once the show confirms them.

Huh? What theories has the show confirmed?

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R+L=J-9


The Great Northern Conspiracy-5


fAegon is a Blackfyre-6


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs-1


Tyrion is a secret Targ-1


Varys is a Blackfyre-3


Coldhands is the Night's King-2


Gravedigging Hound-9


Robet Strong is the Mountain-9


Jojen Paste-3


The Green Grace is the Harpy-7


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne-5


Missaindei is a Faceless Man-0...


Oberyn poisoned Tywin-7


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North-3


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon-6


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom-5


Theon Durden-5


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree-7


Alleras = Sarella-10


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R+L=J - 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy- 7 (in some way)

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 9

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 1

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 5

Varys is a Blackfyre - 6

Coldhands is the Night's King - 2

Gravedigging Hound - 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10

Jojen Paste - 7

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 10

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 5 (just because it would connect her to B. Selmy)

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1 (wtf)

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 4 (I think it was Varys trying to blame Oberyn)

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 9

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 8

Theon Durden - 6

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 8

Alleras = Sarella - 10

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Gravedigging Hound - 10 (if not, then it's still deliberately written to suggest him, so what's the point?)


Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10 (that's pretty obviously stated)


R+L=J - 9 (1 off for the possibility that it's going to get subverted just because it's the most popular theory of them all)


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9


Alleras = Sarella - 9


Jojen Paste - 8


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8


The Great Northern Conspiracy - 7 (because it's a theory with many variables, and not all of them are going to turn out the way the theory suggests)


fAegon is a Blackfyre - 7


Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 6



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 5


Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - 5


Varys is a Blackfyre - 4


Coldhands is the Night's King - 4


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 4


Theon Durden - 4


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 3


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 2


Tyrion is a secret Targ - 2


The Green Grace is the Harpy - (left blank, I admit I never concerned myself with that theory much)


Missaindei is a Faceless Man - (also left blank, never heard that one)



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10- obviously aegon is fake, Jon r+l=j, Gregor is Robert Strong and Sandor is the Grave Digger. If u didn't realize those things in the books yourselves it does not mean you are slow and there is no reason you should disagree simply because you didn't see it, which for some reason some people do. But there is reason for u to not act like u didn't read the books.


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R+L=J - 10


The Great Northern Conspiracy - 6


fAegon is a Blackfyre - 8


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 3


Tyrion is a secret Targ - 4


Varys is a Blackfyre - 6


Coldhands is the Night's King - 5


Gravedigging Hound - 8


Robet Strong is the Mountain - 9


Jojen Paste - 6


The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 4


Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 3


Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 7


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 6


Theon Durden - 7


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10


Alleras = Sarella - 10


Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - 2

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R+L=J : 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy : 8

fAegon is a Blackfyre : 6

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs : 2

Tyrion is a secret Targ : 3

Varys is a Blackfyre : 6

Coldhands is the Night's King : 3

Gravedigging Hound : 9

Robet Strong is the Mountain : 9

Jojen Paste : 6 This theory gained some strength after S04 of the show... :(

The Green Grace is the Harpy : 5

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 1

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 2

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 9

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North : 5

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon : 9

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom : 6

Theon Durden: 7

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 9

Alleras = Sarella : 10


ETA:


Howland Reed = the High Sparrow : 4

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Some of you think that Jaime and Cersei are more likely to be Targs opposed to the Grave digging hound...........


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