Theories: the plausibility index

[corbon]

I would argue that to not be FanFic, a theory has to pass a basic test of logic, and be driven by appropriate character history and motivations, NOT simply fan desires.

I don't entirely disagree. Yes, random word or phrase connections are not enough to found a theory on. You need some hard facts for that. I do think they can add strength and depth to a theory though, and should not be dismissed outright (even though I often think they are badly overdone - I just have to accept that its different strokes for different folks and for some people that nebulous, undefined, literary stuff is the shizzle).

I'd also be wary of dismissing stuff as 'fan desires'. IME it is usually the people complaining of this the loudest (often about a theory they disagree with rather than proposing one) that are most guilty of this.

[Hippocras]

I don't entirely disagree. Yes, random word or phrase connections are not enough to found a theory on. You need some hard facts for that. I do think they can add strength and depth to a theory though, and should not be dismissed outright (even though I often think they are badly overdone - I just have to accept that its different strokes for different folks and for some people that nebulous, undefined, literary stuff is the shizzle).I'd also be wary of dismissing stuff as 'fan desires'. IME it is usually the people complaining of this the loudest (often about a theory they disagree with rather than proposing one) that are most guilty of this.

It happens, but it is still a test for the logic and viability of whatever alternative theory those people propose instead.

If a theory has no solid basis other than fan desires, it is on shaky ground.

[corbon]

It happens, but it is still a test for the logic and viability of whatever alternative theory those people propose instead.

If a theory has no solid basis other than fan desires, it is on shaky ground.

Indeed.

IME though, its usually 'fan desires' that assume logic tests fail when they should have passed. Mind you, I tend not to get to involved much in the sillier crackpots which are based on desires rather than evidence anyway, so its kind of a self-selecting bias in the evidence there...

For example, the Tyrion = Targ and Ashara = Lemore theories are both very strong on meeting logic tests when viewed dispassionately but many, even most, people are utterly unable to do that. They can't differentiate between reliable and unreliable data, they can't allow for character bias, they can't allow for basic facts that get in the way of their desire (eg purple eyes do not actually look purple most of the time unless the colour is brought out by makeup or accessories, and this is demonstrated repeatedly throughout the series, yet people irrationally insist if Lemore was Ashara Tyrion must have noticed her purple eyes even though he decided explicitly he had no interest in her secrets (and was staring at her naked body when he described her for us, not her eyes!)).

We might be getting sidetracked a bit here... :cool4:

[Hippocras]

Logic is logic. If something seems to fail the test but actually doesn't, then a logical argument can be made that it does not fail.

I, for example, have started several threads to explore various ideas, but when someone presented real evidence on those threads that made the idea no longer plausible, I accepted those arguments as substantial and valid. The threads are no longer active. However threads exploring ideas where the evidence is more ambiguous are still active because they are still worth discussing.

An example would be my Darkstar is the Grass Snake thread. I am not pushing this idea elsewhere, but on that thread I am exploring the idea that Darkstar is actually working WITH Doran, not against. The thread is active.

People object to this idea on the grounds that they believe Doran would never harm children. However since we don't have Doran's POV we don't actually know what he would or would not do as part as his long term goal of destroying everything Tywin held dear, and we do know that he used Oberyn, previously, as a striking viper, while his supposed inaction is the Grass.

Doran certainly does watch children playing a great deal. But he also made several comments that suggest his reasons for watching are not what people think. He gave Arianne a cyvasse board and told her it is best to study a game before playing it. He also told her that in order to rule Dorne she needs to know her people. A logical conclusion, therefore, is that he watches those children because they are the sons and daughters of the lords and ladies of Dorne, the future lords and ladies of Dorne themselves, and he wants to know which kids win, using what tactics, paired with which other kids, etc.

So there is no actual evidence that Doran would never harm a child. There is, however, direct evidence that Doran's top priority above all else is destroying Tywin's family and legacy, which logically includes Myrcella.

[RedShirt47]

R+L=J 10, even asking seems heresy.

The Great Northern Conspiracy 8, many variations but there is more going on there than we've seen.

fAegon is a Blackfyre 9, Altough I prefer the Brightfyre version.

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 1, There may be Targ blood in the family going way back but not recently.

Tyrion is a secret Targ 1, as above.

Varys is a Blackfyre 9, although as with the Brightfyre theory he is actually a Brightflame.

Coldhands is the Night's King 5, Isn't much to go on. Not sure I care too much who he is.

Gravedigging Hound 9, leaving a little wiggle room but it seems most likely.

Robet Strong is the Mountain 10, just too much evidence.

Jojen Paste 6, would prefer not as I dislike it but it could well be.

The Green Grace is the Harpy 7, almost too obvious but probably.

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 1, much prefer the idea that she is with Howland and is meera and Jojen's mother.

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 4, Not read this theory but seems unlikely.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 10, love this theory and there is so much great evidence.

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 2, leaving a little room for the possibility but not much.

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 9, fits what we know.

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 5, Don't know. Not read up on this theory but I doubt there is enough evidence left for us to know.

Theon Durden 6, not keen on the idea and it seems too corny.

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 8, lots pointing at it being so.

Alleras = Sarella 10, the clue is in the name.

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - 3, very flimsy evidence. I'm far from convinced.

[Squab]

Logically, its all FanFic until confirmed by Martin in book or otherwise.

[Hippocras]

Logically, its all FanFic until confirmed by Martin in book or otherwise.

True enough. But some theories are great and very interesting, while others are....less so.

[No Song so Sweet]

R+L=J (9)

The Great Northern Conspiracy (7)

fAegon is a Blackfyre (8. I think he is real but Blackfyre is an ok theory)

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs (3)

Tyrion is a secret Targ (5)

Varys is a Blackfyre (4)

Coldhands is the Night's King (1)

Gravedigging Hound (10)

Robet Strong is the Mountain (10)

Jojen Paste (5)

The Green Grace is the Harpy (8)

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne (1)

Missaindei is a Faceless Man (1)

Oberyn poisoned Tywin (9. This theory is so plausible you won't even believe it)

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North (8. Only because the prologue will be Jeyne)

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon (10)

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom (1. No indication at all IMO)

Theon Durden (1)

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree (5)

Alleras = Sarella 10 (Everything points to it)

ETA:

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one!

[Hippocras]

^Oberyn poisoning Tywin is not actually that plausible. Doran specifically said he wanted to destroy everything Tywin held dear before killing him, and that he and Oberyn worked together closely, so it wasn't time yet for the Dornish to kill Tywin.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

R+L=J-- 10. Probably no big surprise ;)

The Great Northern Conspiracy-- 9, different levels of the "theory" exist but it's clear there is something going on there

fAegon is a Blackfyre-- 7, if we're including Brightfyre in this category bump to 8

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs-- 3? 4? If this is true it's definitely not in the way people think

Tyrion is a secret Targ-- umm.... see above

Varys is a Blackfyre-- 5, but I favor the Brightfyre theory

Coldhands is the Night's King-- 1

Gravedigging Hound-- 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain-- 10

Jojen Paste-- -2. Just... no.

The Green Grace is the Harpy-- 6

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne-- 3

Missandei is a Faceless Man-- 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin-- 8

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North-- 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon-- 9

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom-- hmm... 8. Perhaps.

Theon Durden-- -10 :huh:

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree-- I honestly don't see this as a theory, so 100%

Alleras = Sarella-- ditto above

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow-- 0. I don't understand this one. It seems to rely on the HS being short, and Howland also being short

[Pod The Impaler]

Corbon: you quibbling over terminology went a long way towards making me feel better. Thank you.

Summary: "Integers - use them !"

[Pod The Impaler]

Tried to add each theory expressed in this thread thus far...

R+L=J 10 (As certain as an unconfirmed thing can be)

The Great Northern Conspiracy 7 (that there is a conspiracy, 8; any specific version, 5)

fAegon is a Blackfyre 3

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 2

Tyrion is a secret Targ 2

Varys is a Blackfyre 5

Coldhands is the Night's King 0

Gravedigging Hound 9

Robert Strong is the Mountain 8 (If I consider it a 10 that 4/5 of his body is the Mountain, heh.)

Jojen Paste 2

The Green Grace is the Harpy 5

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 2

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 1

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 3

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 7

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 7

Theon Durden 3

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 6

Alleras = Sarella 10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 1 (Of all the things Howland Reed might be, the only worse theory is that he is Jojen)

Mance=Rhaegar 0

Septon Chayle is Winterfell's hooded man 1

Robb Stark fell for Jeyne Westerling because of a potion/witchcraft 2

[dielsis]

I had to break these up, tried to correspond w/numbers.

10 - These are well set up:

R + L = J

Robert Strong

Euron's complicity in Balon's death

Alleras (I mean, this is either a 10 or a 1)

9 - I highly suspect these to be true and would be shocked if they weren't:

The Hound on Quiet Isle

KotLT = Lyanna

7 - Very likely, but I want more detail:

Varys Blackfyre

Theon Durden

Great Northern Conspiracy (and more Frey pies, please)

5 - I could go either way:

Coldhands = Night's King

Septa Lemore = Ashara Dayne

Oberyn poisoned Tywin (I'm actually pretty sure something was up with Tywin - was it poison AND was it Oberyn, though?)

3 - There is doubt in the text but still unlikely (but still worth pondering):

fAegon

A + J = T

Jojen Paste

HR = HS

1 - You're definitely reading too much into things:

A + J = C & J

The others I don't have enough familiarity with.

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

R+L=J : 15

The Great Northern Conspiracy : 6

(f)Aegon is a Blackfyre : 8

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs : 1

Tyrion is a secret Targ : 7

Varys is a Blackfyre : 5

Coldhands is the Night's King : 1

Gravedigging Hound : 9

Robet Strong is the Mountain : 9

Jojen Paste : 6

The Green Grace is the Harpy : 5

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 1

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 9

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North : 5

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon : 8

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom : 4

Theon Durden: 4

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 10

Alleras = Sarella : 8

ETA:

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow : 1

[dielsis]

an explosion in a pot factory

Don't know how I missed this when reading it prior. Good show!

[Julia Martell]

Don't know how I missed this when reading it prior. Good show!

I have my moments.

[Wolf in Hallowed Places]

Here's my fairly cynical list:

R+L=J : 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy : 5 - Not up to scratch on the specifics of this one, but it seems unlikely that Manderly is the only Northern Lord to be a little hesitant to swear fealty to a lord who orchestrated the massacre of many of their kin and comrades, and their liege. Still, I'm not giving it more than 5, because I'm not convinced that it's an active and 'great' 'conspiracy', as opposed to merely a sentiment, and a likelihood that the Northern Lords will rally behind Manderly when his true allegiance is revealed, even if they weren't in on it.

(f)Aegon is a Blackfyre : 4 - Plausible, but there's not really any evidence for it, just no evidence against it.

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs : 0 - I am of the conviction that there are no 'secret Targs' other than Jon. It would just be silly to use the same twist more than once.

Tyrion is a secret Targ : 0 - As above.

Varys is a Blackfyre : 1 - This one kinda relies on Aegon being a Blackfyre, it wouldn't make much sense otherwise. No evidence for it at all. I don't like the idea that everyone has to secretly 'be someone' - why can't Varys just be Varys?

Coldhands is the Night's King : 1 - Nice idea, but I see no reason why this should be the case.

Gravedigging Hound : 9 - Seems likely, why draw attention to a large, limping brother in the vicinity of Stranger otherwise?

Robet Strong is the Mountain : 10 - Is there really any doubt about this? Not even really a 'theory' is it.

Jojen Paste : The name of this theory just cries out for a big fat '0' ('paste' just makes it sound absurd, like they put him in a blender or something), but I can't rule out that he is dead, or even that his blood was in the weirwood paste, so maybe this theory merits a '1'.

The Green Grace is the Harpy : Never re-read Dany's DwD chapters, I neither know nor care about this Ghiscari crap.

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 0 - The Daynes, along with Howland Reed, are key ingredients of unfounded fan-theories.

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 0 - Lol, I've never come across this, is this serious?

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 6 - Seems convincing, but I can't help thinking it's a red herring (or should that be viper...;))

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North : 0 - Until last week when I read Martin's confirmation that the hips business was mere absent-minded error, I was pretty sold on this, but without that there's nothing to it.

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon : 10 - I can't think how else you'd interpret the Ghost of High Hearts dream.

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom : 9 - Heavily implied, makes sense.

Theon Durden: 0 - Baseless.

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: I just assumed it was 'the Crannogman' himself. If not, then Lyanna it is.

Alleras = Sarella : 10 - Too much of a coincedence to ignore.

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow : 0 - One of the most absurd I've come across, although I'm sure there's more that my memory has repressed.

I'm gonna add to this:

Val returns from her mission as a wight/Other-thrall - 0

[Luthien Targaryen]

R+L=J : 9, I can't personally think of a more logical explanation

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 4 I'm not sure of what that's about.

fAegon is a Blackfyre: 5 I'm not convinced he's not a Targaryen

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 2 Nope

Tyrion is a secret Targ 2 double nope. Having read the brief history of House Lannister somewhere on this site I believe they're all exhibiting solid Lannister streaks, especially Tyrion..

Varys is a Blackfyre: 5 But Varys could be anything.

Coldhands is the Night's King: 5 Might be, not sure if it proves anything, I'm just glad he's not Uncle Benjen.

Gravedigging Hound: 9 It is Known, surely

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 7- Because I'd love it if he was some random bloke called Bob Strong that Qyburn met in a pub.

Jojen Paste: 1 Just no...

The Green Grace is the Harpy 5 : I don't know and i don't really care...

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 3 Fairly sure Ashara is dead, my money is on Septa Lemore being Tyene Sand's mum, if anyone.

Missandei is a Faceless Man 2 : Who writes this stuff? If she is she's crap, she's had about a thousand opportunities to bump off Dany.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 3: Who cares? They're both dead (Tywin, yay, Oberyn, booo)

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 6: I want this to be true but i fear that having been written out of the TV series that it's unlikely.

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 6 It's a maybe, i think that if that's true it's only one factor in Balon's murder, not that i care, Balon Greyjoy made Stannis look like a stand up comedian.

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 2: Really? This is the first i've heard of this..Can a bunch of assassins really cause a country to blow up? Have they really been around that long? I'd personally have put more blame on either plate tectonics or the Targaryens.

Theon Durden: 4 I don't know if even Theon is that mad...

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 2 Nah, it was Ned.

Alleras = Sarella 9 It is known, isn't it?

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - 4 Haven't been following the theory because it sounds crackpot to me

Mance=Rhaegar 1 Rhaegar's dead people, sorry but it's time to move on..

Septon Chayle is Winterfell's hooded man 5 I'd like this to be true, but i keep missing the guy on readthroughs, i thought he was Abel to be honest.

Robb Stark fell for Jeyne Westerling because of a potion/witchcraft 2 I think Robb fell for Jeyne because she's cute and he's a teenage boy and she was pretty much throwing herself at him/ being thrown at him.

[Mithras]

10 – R+L=J – It is as good as confirmed.

8 – The Great Northern Conspiracy – There are various theories under this umbrella, some of them might be stretching too far but the general idea is plausible.

5 – fAegon is a Blackfyre – The Brightfyre alternative gets 10 from me.

1 – Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs – I don’t think they are secret Targs. For me, they carry legitimate Targ blood through possible Plumm ancestry and/or Damon Lannister/Eleana Targaryen marriage.

1 – Tyrion is a secret Targ – See above.

1 – Varys is a Blackfyre – I think he is a descendant of Aerion, possibly the son of his legitimate son passed over in 233 by the Great Council.

1 – Coldhands is the Night's King – I think he is just a meatsuit for BR.

10 – Gravedigging Hound – Almost a given.

10 – Robet Strong is the Mountain – Almost a given.

1 – Jojen Paste – Nope.

10 – The Green Grace is the Harpy – :agree:

1 – Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne – Nope.

1 – Missandei is a Faceless Man – Nope.

10 – Oberyn poisoned Tywin – :agree:

1 – Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North – Nope.

9 – Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon – A slight possibility is that he might have used air magic (storms) to kill him without the use of a FM.

7 – The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom – They certainly did something but creating the Doom by themselves alone seems too much.

1 – Theon Durden – That would be a cheap trick. I think GRRM is better than that.

10 – Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree – :fencing:

10 – Alleras = Sarella – Almost a given.

1 – High Sparrow = Howland – Nope.

10 – Tyrion will ride Viserion. – :whip:

3 – Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter. – :(

6 – Mance wrote the Pink Letter. – :unsure:

9 – Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. – :smug:

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Logically, its all FanFic until confirmed by Martin in book or otherwise.

Uh, no. Fan fiction is not the same as theories (even those that fall under wishful thinking). Logically they are different things.

All these are theories until confirmed by Martin.