The Islamic State, Syria & Iraq - Part III

[Arakan]

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[Arakan]

# some real talk about the US, Iraq and IS

# US mooting air strikes against key IS leaders in Syria, regime says ask permission first - not sure how much airspace is in Syrian air defence range now that Raqqa's completely gone

# everyone's favourite green newspaper reminds us that the GCC committee monitoring Qatar's compliance with an agreement to abstain from committing the grave and serious offence of 'interfering in the internal affairs of other GCC states' (Why are you laughing? What's so funny?) will report in September

I copy that post by Horza from the MENA thread. There are interesting links worth a read, esp. the first one.

[daskool]

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2014/0703/Omar-al-Shishani-Chechen-in-Syria-rising-star-in-ISIS-leadership

The ginger jihadi

A young, red-bearded ethnic Chechen has rapidly become one of the most prominent commanders in the breakaway al-Qaida group that has overrun swaths of Iraq and Syria, illustrating the international nature of the movement.

Al-Shishani has been the group's military commander in Syria, leading it on an offensive to take over a broad stretch of territory leading to the Iraq border. But he may have risen to become the group's overall military chief, a post that has been vacant after the Iraqi militant who once held it — known as Abu Abdul-Rahman al-Bilawi al-Anbari — was killed in the Iraqi city of Mosul in early June. The video identified al-Shishani as "the military commander" without specifying its Syria branch, suggesting he had been elevated to overall commander, though the group has not formally announced such a promotion.

As the militant group's operations in Iraq and Syria grow "more and more inter-dependent by the day, it is more than possible that someone like (al-Shishani) could assume overall military leadership," said Charles Lister, Visiting Fellow with the Brookings Doha Center.

Al-Shishani, whose real name is Tarkhan Batirashvili, is an ethnic Chechen from the Caucasus nation of Georgia, specifically from the Pankisi Valley, a center of Georgia's Chechen community and once a stronghold for militants.

He did military service in the Georgian army but was discharged after an unspecified illness, said one of his former neighbors, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. At one point, Georgian police arrested him for illegal possession of arms, the neighbor said. As soon as he was released in 2010, Batirashvili left for Turkey. Georgian police refused to comment.

"A Chechen comes and has no idea about anything (in the country) and does whatever his leader tells him," Nasser said. "Even if his emir tells him to kill a child, he would do it."

So a Georgian (of ethnic Chechen background) convert to Islam is now in charge of ISIL, well at least the military part. Is a fascinating tail of a young man made good, with a few be-headings and gruesome massacres thrown in for color.

In less than a year ISIS goes from being an insignificant offshoot of Al Qaeda to controlling a de facto state bigger than Britain. All with the help of transplanted foreign veteran fighters and an apparently bottomless pit of money to draw on. The more I read about this the more I'm convinced that state players, governments, have been orchestrating the whole operation.

[Lady Sansa Stark]

It's certainly a good read indeed, thank you for the link Arakan.

[Fez]

The more I read about this the more I'm convinced that state players, governments, have been orchestrating the whole operation.

Its pretty widely acknowledged that the Gulf states gave the initial startup funding to ISIS, although none of them want to cop to it now and just blame each other and/or private donors (who surely also gave). At this point though, I'd be surprised if anyone was pulling their strings, they've hit a critical enough mass to be self-sustaining.

[TerraPrime]

Its pretty widely acknowledged that the Gulf states gave the initial startup funding to ISIS, although none of them want to cop to it now and just blame each other and/or private donors (who surely also gave). At this point though, I'd be surprised if anyone was pulling their strings, they've hit a critical enough mass to be self-sustaining.

Kidnapping seems to be a pretty lucrative venture.

Are they also involved in drug trade like al-Qaida was allegedly doing?

[Fez]

Kidnapping seems to be a pretty lucrative venture.

Are they also involved in drug trade like al-Qaida was allegedly doing?

Kidnapping's one thing, oil is another; and they have something like seven oil fields at this point, plus multiple refineries.

They also got $430 million from looting the central bank in Mosul, which is far larger than any other source of income up to this point. In fact, it singlehandedly made them the richest terrorist-designated organization around; moreso than the Taliban, Hezbollah, Farc, etc.

I wouldn't be surprised if they sold drugs too; although the idea that they're in league with the Mexican cartels, like Rick Perry and some of the Texas GOP Reps have been suggesting seems rather outlandish to me.

[TerraPrime]

Kidnapping's one thing, oil is another; and they have something like seven oil fields at this point, plus multiple refineries.

So is there pressure from the international community to NOT buy the oil from these refineries?

I wouldn't be surprised if they sold drugs too; although the idea that they're in league with the Mexican cartels, like Rick Perry and some of the Texas GOP Reps have been suggesting seems rather outlandish to me.

I'd expect them to export the opium from Russia or Thailand/Vietname myslef, and not through Mexico.

[Fez]

So is there pressure from the international community to NOT buy the oil from these refineries?

Its not like they sell it to reputable businesses or to countries (except, ironically, to Assad's regime itself), its all $30 to the barrel to black market traders who disperse it through out the Middle East. Not easily traceable or preventable.

[TerraPrime]

Its not like they sell it to reputable businesses or to countries (except, ironically, to Assad's regime itself), its all $30 to the barrel to black market traders who disperse it through out the Middle East. Not easily traceable or preventable.

Seems to me that oil, being such an important commodity, wouldn't be too hard to really track? But there's probably sufficient lack of will in upending the black market trading for this to happen.

[Arakan]

Seems to me that oil, being such an important commodity, wouldn't be too hard to really track? But there's probably sufficient lack of will in upending the black market trading for this to happen.

The spice must flow. Always.

And I guess some influential criminals in Syria, Turkey, Iraq (non-IS) or Iran are making good money right now. Unfortunately such opportunists more often than not have powerful friends.

[Arakan]

Everything is connected with everything...here is a quite thoughtful Guardian comment wrt the Ukraine crisis and of tomorrow's summit in Minsk. But it reminds us also that the West needs Russia, whether we like it or not, to deal with Assad and thus be able to deal with IS

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/25/ukraine-vladimir-putin-no-mood-for-humiliation

Apparently IS committed a genocidal massacre on ~700 Shiite prisoners...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/25/isis-ethnic-cleansing-shia-prisoners-iraq-mosul

[ThinkerX]

Ok, each time I see mention of this 'Islamic State,' I think back to an article I read probably seven or eight years ago - most likely in the 'New Yorker.'

A big chunk of the article dealt with information taken from captured AlQueda hard drives, including sections about the groups governing philosophy and long term plans. Centerpiece was a five phase plan to make themselves into a sort of major superpower. Phase II involved a series of coups and revolutions creating something very like the Islamic State. If my somewhat hazy memory serves, the formation of the Islamic State is about on a par with the timeline given in those hard drives.

Phase III will be globally disruptive (ME wide 'Caliphate.' Past that, things get terrifying (full scale global jihad)

[Clueless Northman]

Yeah well, except that nukes will fly even before there is a Middle-East-wide Caliphate.

[TrueMetis]

Chiki

TrueMetis, on 25 Aug 2014 - 03:18 AM, said:

Yes I did.

Quote

They can't go back and do that if they're arrested.

Ok so you've said that they are allowed to go back to Iraq, you haven't proved it though. So for now all it is is pointless speculation. If I'm honest you haven't even proved they're being treated but that seems like such a non-issue I'm not even going to contest it.

[ThinkerX]

Yeah well, except that nukes will fly even before there is a Middle-East-wide Caliphate.

Nukes launched by whom? Are you saying a ME wide Caliphate ruled by jihadist lunatics is sufficient justification for the US or Israel or Russia to start launching nukes?

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

Seems to me that oil, being such an important commodity, wouldn't be too hard to really track? But there's probably sufficient lack of will in upending the black market trading for this to happen.

How? The only way I can of is to blow up dirty bombs over ISIL controlled oil wells and refineries.

[Clueless Northman]

Nukes launched by whom? Are you saying a ME wide Caliphate ruled by jihadist lunatics is sufficient justification for the US or Israel or Russia to start launching nukes?

Considering Israel is located in the Middle-East, a ME-wide Caliphate would basically incorporate Israel. So, I don't think they're going to let this happen without some level of resistance :P

Not to mention no sane global power - US, Russia or China, heck even EU - would be ok with having the whole area, and its resources, be overrun by nutcases.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Found this from the Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/08/20/from-daniel-pearl-to-james-foley-the-modern-tactic-of-islamist-beheadings/

From the article:

Another factor is the Islamic State's demographics: Compared with other jihadist groups, fighters with the Islamic State skew disproportionately young and Western. Peter Neumann, director of the International Center for the Study of Radicalization, told The Post that many of the Western fighters who carry out these executions have probably watched videos of beheadings and other acts of extreme violence online before joining extremist groups. Notably, the man who appears in the video with Foley has a distinct British accent.[emphasis added]

Whats the deal. Why are some Muslim men from Western nations drawn to this brutal version of Islam? It this a power thing? Do they believe they are being denied the control over their communities that they are somehow due and therefore are willing to brutalize those who will not submit to them? I'm really curious about how this behavior can be rationalized.

[Fez]

The US has begun surveillance flights over Syria, likely in preparation for bombing ISIS targets. I wonder if there has been any backdoor talking with Assad at this point, or if the US still thinks it can thread the needle.