High Septon = Howland Reed 3.0

[Faceless Void]

No... "if a, then b; b therefore a" is called affirming the consequent. It is a logical fallacy, and is not an example of circular reasoning. Circular reasoning is any form of reasoning where the conclusion is ultimately the same as one of its premises. It is logically correct, but still considered a fallacy as it doesn't prove anything.

In this case the argument was "judging from the selection and criteria, a parallel does exist". Of course a parallel exists if you've selected for it.

Imagine I select all the times a Stark has held someone captive. In those cases a Stark was always holding someone captive. Therefore the Septas are Starks!

I'm sorry, but you're wrong.

You're drawing your argument without including the other pieces of information, i.e. she-bear descriptions, sinner's steps, she-bear carving.

I understand that,

- The Septa's are gaolers

- The She-bears have been gaolers

- The Septa's are She-bears

is a circular argument. But the actual argument includes all the other similarities you've excluded from the criteria. For instance:

- looking stronger than they appear

- being taciturn

- the similar appearance

- the she-bear carving

- hotah's recollection of the sinner's steps

I understand how circular reasoning works, but it doesn't apply here. It isn't circular reasoning simply because you choose to ignore the rest of the evidence.

[Starkfaithful85]

people who say that the new casting confirms the HS is not howland bc it is pryce might be forgetting that one more HS is supposed to die, under cersei's orders through the kettleblacks, before the current one in the books is supposed to be in charge

[HoboJed]

I'm sorry, but you're wrong.

You're drawing your argument without including the other pieces of information, i.e. she-bear descriptions, sinner's steps, she-bear carving.

I understand that,

- The Septa's are gaolers

- The She-bears have been gaolers

- The Septa's are She-bears

is a circular argument. But the actual argument includes all the other similarities you've excluded from the criteria. For instance:

- looking stronger than they appear

- being taciturn

- the similar appearance

- the she-bear carving

- hotah's recollection of the sinner's steps

I understand how circular reasoning works, but it doesn't apply here. It isn't circular reasoning simply because you choose to ignore the rest of the evidence.

I'm not wrong. You are assuming I said the whole thing is circular reasoning, which I did not. I was just pointing out the part of the argument that was circular.

This is important so we can reduce the real argument to its core (which you have just summed up).

EDIT: To clarify, the core of the argument is that the she-bears are described in a similar way to the septas. That bears are sometimes gaolers is irrelevant as many characters have been gaolers. In fact, only one instance has a she-bear as a gaoler (Alysane), so we can hardly call that a pattern.

[GRRM's Secrets]

people who say that the new casting confirms the HS is not howland bc it is pryce might be forgetting that one more HS is supposed to die, under cersei's orders through the kettleblacks, before the current one in the books is supposed to be in charge

This is the current High Septon (Number 2)

http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/High_Septon_%28After_the_riot_of_King%27s_Landing%29

This was Nummber 1

http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/High_Septon_%28Before_the_riot_of_King%27s_Landing%29

Pryce is Number 3: The High Sparrow

Thus far three High Septons have appeared in person during the story:

• The First High Septon (known as the Fat One). He was a grossly fat man who had been High Septon for many years before being killed in the Riot of King’s Landing. He was regarded by many Lords and smallfolk as fat and corrupt.

• The Second High Septon. The replacement was selected by Tyrion Lannister.^[2] He was regarded as a weak willed but good man. He prayed with Lancel Lannister when the boy was injured and near death. Lancel confessed his sins to him, such as bedding Cersei Lannister & giving the King a more potent wine than he was used to which resulted in his death. The High Septon said he must forgive her though. Queen Cersei, paranoid about what Lancel may have told him ordered his death. Osney Kettleblack snuck into the great sept and suffocated the man with a pillow while he slept^.

• The Third High Septon, known as the High Sparrow. The latest High Septon was also not to Cersei's liking, as he was one of the "sparrows" who had turned up as refugees after the events of the War of the Five Kings. A truly devout and holy man with an iron will, he arrested Cersei and Margaery due to accusations of infidelity and adultery. Also, the Faith Militant was reinstated during his term when Queen Cersei wanted the crown's debt settled.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/High_Septon

[Lady Woodland]

people who say that the new casting confirms the HS is not howland bc it is pryce might be forgetting that one more HS is supposed to die, under cersei's orders through the kettleblacks, before the current one in the books is supposed to be in charge

I think you may be mistaken here as the casters have already stated JP is the High Sparrow, it just remains to be seen if he is also HR. - see post below.

This is the current High Septon (Number 2)

http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/High_Septon_%28After_the_riot_of_King%27s_Landing%29

This was Nummber 1

http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/High_Septon_%28Before_the_riot_of_King%27s_Landing%29

Pryce is Number 3: The High Sparrow

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/High_Septon

Welcome & thank you for the images :cheers:

I haven't seen Season 4 but after watching season 3 & realising how far away from the books It has got I don't think the script writers really care any more about book canon, they have gone on record as saying if they got Season 3 episode 9 to screen (the Red Wedding) they would be happy.

I confess I don't think we have the motive or reasons behind why HR might be the HS correct as we have seen before how tricky GRRM's writing can be, but I do think the guts of this theory is correct. Interestingly the more I think about it the more I believe that one of the biggest arguments people have presented is one thing that makes the most sense to me.

People argue that the HS is just a Random Septon but I would argue that if this is true at the moment his appearance is like Manna from Heaven to the good guys. He is conveniently hosing down the threat from Cersei & in doing so helping everyone, we have come to like his character, so what will happen down the road if he isn't HR who we would believe could peaceably resolve the strength the Faith Militant has become?

HR could sway them & the people into a combined & universally worshipped faith & help in the new battle against the Others, If he's not & he truly is random he's raising an uncontrollable guerrilla army that will then become another obstacle for the good guys to overcome which makes no sense. The role of the HS so far has just become too important & he is too likeable now I would be very surprised if GRRM did a change of character arc & had him become a bad guy & another roadblock on their way to solving world peace so late in the series.

[Ser Quork]

I confess I don't think we have the motive or reasons behind why HR might be the HS correct as we have seen before how tricky GRRM's writing can be, but I do think the guts of this theory is correct. Interestingly the more I think about it the more I believe that one of the biggest arguments people have presented is one thing that makes the most sense to me.

People argue that the HS is just a Random Septon but I would argue that if this is true at the moment his appearance is like Manna from Heaven to the good guys. He is conveniently hosing down the threat from Cersei & in doing so helping everyone, we have come to like his character, so what will happen down the road if he isn't HR who we would believe could peaceably resolve the strength the Faith Militant has become?

HR could sway them & the people into a combined & universally worshipped faith & help in the new battle against the Others, If he's not & he truly is random he's raising an uncontrollable guerrilla army that will then become another obstacle for the good guys to overcome which makes no sense. The role of the HS so far has just become too important & he is too likeable now I would be very surprised if GRRM did a change of character arc & had him become a bad guy & another roadblock on their way to solving world peace so late in the series.

Random Septon does seem to be a little deux ex machina at the moment (although I don't think it would be bad for the story if that is actually what he is - he is a religious figure after all ;) ).

I'm still very open-minded about the motivations if HS=HR. Whilst I am partial to the various motivations that have been suggested for HR posing as HS (including, quite specifically bringing down Cersei or destabilising King's Landing), based on what we know:

• his loyalty to Ned and the Starks

that he is brave and smart and bold

he can be driven by revenge (this word is used twice by Meera in the story of the KotLT)

the contents of Robb's will possibly appointing Jon as his heir

being able to 'weave words' (which I take to mean he is persuasive, perhaps charismatic) and do all the magic of crannogmen

being in possession of certain pertinent information that we all suspect (Jon's parentage and possible claim)

I do wonder if perhaps his motivations are far deeper, due to whatever knowledge he gained at the Isle of Faces, and the hints we are given that the disparate faiths appear to have more in common than not. I wonder, like you, if he will use this position to consolidate (or at least try to) the faiths to oppose the Others, who (at this stage) present a real and overarching danger to mankind - perhaps even to form a new Pact. Pure speculation, I know, but interesting to think about.

All that said, I think we still have much more to learn about the motivation of the CofF, Others, Green Men, and so on, and this could all impact heavily on other characters and plans, which are yet to be revealed.

[Faceless Void]

I'm not wrong. You are assuming I said the whole thing is circular reasoning, which I did not. I was just pointing out the part of the argument that was circular.

This is important so we can reduce the real argument to its core (which you have just summed up).

EDIT: To clarify, the core of the argument is that the she-bears are described in a similar way to the septas. That bears are sometimes gaolers is irrelevant as many characters have been gaolers. In fact, only one instance has a she-bear as a gaoler (Alysane), so we can hardly call that a pattern.

If you're selective about which parts of the actual argument you choose to address, then of course you can construe it as circular reasoning. Such as:

- Saying that the she-bears and septas are just gaolers is circular reasoning

- Saying that the she-bears and septas are just taciturn is circular reasoning

- Saying that the she-bears and septas are just stronger than they appear is circular reasoning

- Saying that the she-bears and septas just have similarly described features is circular reasoning

But none of these things stand on their own, they're all part of the bigger argument, which is addressed in the OP. Under your criticism, one could make the case that every theory has included circular reasoning to support their argument. It's a slippery slope when you use that type of bias to draw conclusions.

JonSnow4President was criticizing willofDorne on this very point, with that exact same bias. My response to him was that IF the she-bears are in fact the septas, THEN a parallel is present. Obviously this doesn't make the theory because it isn't the entire argument; it simply lends credence if you accept the other parts as true.

Also, the strongest connection (for me) isn't the Maege/Dacey/Catelyn dynamic, or the Alysanne/Asha dynamic, but the Jorah/Tyrion dynamic.

If the she-bears are the septas, then the parallel to Jorah/Tyrion becomes clear: a bear gaoler, and their lion captive. Male bear when it's a male lion, female bears when it's a female lion.

You can downplay that and criticize it as a weak connection, but to me it seems supportive. *shrug*

[HoboJed]

IF the she-bears are in fact the septas, THEN a parallel is present.

This is what I'm getting at. You cannot use this statement to support your argument. You can say it would be a nice touch if true, but it adds no credibility to the argument itself.

Your conclusion is that the Septas are she-bears. To use the quoted statement to support this conclusion is to say:

IF the she-bears are in fact the septas, THEN a parallel is present. THEREFORE the septas are more likely to be she-bears.

It would be the same as me saying:

IF the she-bears are not in fact the septas, THEN a parallel is not present. THEREFORE the septas are less likely to be she-bears.

The other arguments are not circular reasoning, because their premises are not used to support themselves:

IF the she-bears look the same as the septas, THEN the septas are more likely to be she-bears.

The she-bears look the same as the septas, THEREFORE the septas are more likely to be she-bears.

Can you see the difference?

[JonSnow4President]

If you're selective about which parts of the actual argument you choose to address, then of course you can construe it as circular reasoning. Such as:

- Saying that the she-bears and septas are just gaolers is circular reasoning

- Saying that the she-bears and septas are just taciturn is circular reasoning

- Saying that the she-bears and septas are just stronger than they appear is circular reasoning

- Saying that the she-bears and septas just have similarly described features is circular reasoning

But none of these things stand on their own, they're all part of the bigger argument, which is addressed in the OP. Under your criticism, one could make the case that every theory has included circular reasoning to support their argument. It's a slippery slope when you use that type of bias to draw conclusions.

JonSnow4President was criticizing willofDorne on this very point, with that exact same bias. My response to him was that IF the she-bears are in fact the septas, THEN a parallel is present. Obviously this doesn't make the theory because it isn't the entire argument; it simply lends credence if you accept the other parts as true.

Also, the strongest connection (for me) isn't the Maege/Dacey/Catelyn dynamic, or the Alysanne/Asha dynamic, but the Jorah/Tyrion dynamic.

If the she-bears are the septas, then the parallel to Jorah/Tyrion becomes clear: a bear gaoler, and their lion captive. Male bear when it's a male lion, female bears when it's a female lion.

You can downplay that and criticize it as a weak connection, but to me it seems supportive. *shrug*

I was tired when I wrote that, and I would like to say I have no idea how I took it as I did. (Just looked back at it)

What my brain read that night: Every time someone has been captive, a she-bear has been involved.

Hence, the list of captives off the top of my head not involved with she-bears.

[Antler's Fury]

High Sparrow's Appearance

Brown eyes are hardly an uncommon feature, and many old people could be said to have gnarled feet, especially if they travel a lot, as the High Sparrow has, as have plenty of other people displaced by the war. Septon Meribald is described in a similar manner, because he too is a traveling septon. Furthermore, many poor, undernourished smallfolk could be described as thin and short as well. As far as tied back hair is concerned, other male characters who are not crannogmen, like Haldon Halfmaester and Viserys Targaryen wore their hair tied back behind their head. Furthermore, though the High Sparrow can apparently scrub floors and pull a wagon of bones, he's apparently too old to stop Cersei from pushing him aside, while Howland Reed had enough physical strength to fight several members of the Kingsguard, the best knights alive, and survive. Though Taena Merryweather says that the High Sparrow was born with filth beneath his fingernails, this is simply a reference to his being born poor. Again, most poor smallfolk in Westeros live in dirty environments, so this is also not evidence that he was born in the swampy Neck. Indeed, the High Septon himself seems to be a surprisingly clean person. Cersei does not see any dirt on his feet or fingernails, and reports that his robes are clean, if patched and frayed. Finally, though the High Sparrow did complain about Ned Stark's execution at the Sept of Baelor, this hardly suggests that he cared about Ned; it only meant that he did not want the holy Sept to be desecrated with blood. This was apparently so egregious a sin that even the previous fat, corrupt High Septon complained about it. Should we assume that this man was a secret Manderly considering that, like Wyman Manderly, he is a morbidly obese follower of the Seven who is very concerned about the murder of a Stark lord?

Robb's Will and the GNC Connection

The GNC is supposed to be about playing the Boltons and Stannis against each other and securing Northern independence under Jon when the dust clears, because Robb's will names Jon as his heir. Even if we ignore the fact that the will was written at a time when Rickon was believed to be dead, and that we have proof that Northerners are attempting to return Rickon to power, while we have no proof that anyone is attempting to put Jon on any kind of throne, this idea is still not compatible with Howland's alleged mission. Howland is supposed to be attempting to weaken the current monarchy and reveal Jon's true lineage and make him king instead, but this is incompatible with Northern independence by definition. If the Northerners want independence with Jon as King in the North, then Howland must not have gotten the memo, because Jon can't be both King of an independent North and King on the Iron Throne at the same time. If the Northerners want the former, then there's no reason for Howland to play septon in the South. If the Northerners want the latter, then Robb's will is irrelevant, because Jon's "claim" to the throne would be drawn from his being Rhaegar's son, not Robb's will.

Northern Sparrows and Northern Septas

I don't see how we can assume that the axe-wielding shirtless sparrow is Galbart Glover, merely because he bears an axe and is shirtless in chilly weather. An axe is generally used to cut wood even by the poor, so it makes sense that peasants who became sparrows would be armed with these. Though we know that the Northmen handle winter better than Southerners, it's not like this is because their skin is somehow more resilient to the cold than that of their Southern counterparts. Indeed, I don't think we've ever seen a shirtless Northerner. Quite to the contrary, the Northerners are generally described as wearing more furry clothing, snowshoes, etc. and it is this that enables them to survive the winter, not some specially resilient bare skin, which must be kept well insulated from the cold, as the Northerners know better than anyone else. However, this sparrow's lack of a shirt makes much more sense if he is in fact a sparrow. It is important to note that this man has a seven-pointed star carved into his chest. This is a sign that, like the Andal invaders of old, he is zealously devoted to the Seven, and willing to undergo significant physical pain on behalf of his faith. The High Sparrow also claims to flagellate himself to atone for his sins. Even in the real world, across different religious traditions, the most zealous have proven their extreme piety by undergoing self-mortification. This explains why he is uninterested in wearing a shirt: he is used to undergoing pain and discomfort for his faith.

As far as the septas who attend Cersei are concerned, it seems very unlikely that they are Mormont women. The AFFC appendix lists the characters as they are before the book begins, and it mentions that Moelle and Unella are members of the Most Devout serving at the Great Sept of Baelor. This suggests that Moelle and Unella were in KL as Most Devout before the High Sparrow and his followers arrived there, meaning that neither of them could have been a Mormont in disguise traveling with the band of sparrows from which the High Sparrow emerges, as this group is not yet in KL when the book begins. Therefore, the only way that they could be Mormont women is if Howland sent them ahead to integrate with the Faith before his arrival. Though we don't know enough about the Most Devout selection process to say that this would be impossible for the Mormont women to accomplish, the wealth and influence of the Most Devout, who can throw feasts and hire expensive prostitutes, suggests that one cannot simply come in off the street and become one of them; they are hardly going to open their coffers to just anybody. If the College of Cardinals in the real world is any indication, becoming a member of the Most Devout requires years of religious service, and is not something that a stranger could accomplish quickly without force at his disposal, like the High Sparrow did when he held the Most Devout at axe-point and forced them to elect him. We have no indication that any of the Most Devout were recent additions, or installed by force.

Furthermore, the appearance of these septas suggests that they cannot be Maege, Lyra, and Jorelle. Septa Moelle is described as having white hair, meaning that she cannot be one of Maege's daughters, who are at most, in their early twenties. Though we may say that she is Maege herself, the other two are also described as old. When Cersei is talking to an imprisoned Margaery, the latter talks about how she wanted to claw Septa Unella's eyes out. Cersei thinks to herself that it is a shame that Margaery did not do this, as "blinding some old septa would certainly persuade the High Sparrow of your guilt." However, it is important to note that Cersei has not yet met Unella, and does not know who she is until Unella actually introduces herself after Cersei's own arrest. That said, Cersei's assumption suggests that septas are generally old, and nothing else we know about Unella suggests otherwise. Indeed, when talking to the High Sparrow for the first time, Cersei expresses her annoyance that the High Sparrow expects her to waste Tommen's soldiers "guarding the wrinkled cunts of a thousand sour septas" again implying that most septas are old. Additionally, when Septas Unella and Scolera are escorting Cersei to the High Sparrow, Unella chastises Scolera for talking too much, saying "You chatter too much, you foolish old woman." Furthermore, while returning from her confession, Cersei thinks about how sweet it would be to "slam an elbow into Septa Scolera's face" so that she would fall down the steps, and that "the wrinkled old cunt" might crash into Septa Unella as well on the way down. Therefore, Septa Scolera is also old. Additionally, when being escorted by the three septas during her walk of shame, Cersei is afraid that if she panics and runs away, the "three hags" would imprison her for good, suggesting that all three septas are old. Cersei also refers to Septa Scolera as an "old hag" during the walk. Because she calls Septa Scolera, who is definitely old, a hag, and uses the same word to refer to all three septas, Septa Unella is probably old as well. Thus, we know that two septas, Moelle and Scolera, are old, and that Unella is probably old too. Given that we know that Maege is with both her daughters, and that Maege is old while her daughters are young, the only way that the three of them could be these three septas is if one was old and two were young. However, the fact that at least two of the septas are old tells us that they cannot be Maege and her daughters. One might assume that these women are simply general warrior-women from Bear Island who are not from House Mormont, but we have no reason to believe that this is the case, because we have no descriptions of women from Bear Island who are not from House Mormont. The only connection between the septas and Bear Island is the septas' appearance, which is supposed to resemble that of the women of House Mormont, but we have no reason to believe that other warrior-women of Bear Island outside of the ruling House also look like this.

Women held captive by she-bears

Catelyn, Asha, and Cersei are hardly the only women held captive in the story. They aren't even the only POV women held captive. Jeyne Westerling, as well as POV characters Arya, Sansa, and Arianne are also held captive, and are definitely not guarded by Mormont women like Catelyn and Asha were. There's no reason to believe that Cersei's captors are necessarily Mormonts, as Catelyn and Asha's were, instead of non-Mormonts, like Arya, Sansa, and Arianne's captors were.

Sparrow's weapons

If the gang of sparrows are Northern soldiers, we would expect them to be armed like soldiers. Yet, when we initially meet them, they are not. When Brienne initially meets them, "several" have axes, but more are armed with "crude wooden clubs and cudgels." When Cersei arrives at the Great Sept of Baelor to meet the High Sparrow for the first time, the sparrows at the door of the sept are armed with "staves and scythes, cudgels and clubs, several axes" again, all farm implements turned weapons that common people would have access to. It is only the ones who block her way who wear mail and boiled leather and are armed with spears and longswords, and even then, most of them have axes and only a few wear plate, and dinted plate at that. During Cersei's walk of shame, the sparrows are "armed with spears and axes and clad in bits of dented plate, rusted mail, and cracked leather, under roughspun surcoats". When Jaime encounters sparrows in the Riverlands, he considers them to be "armed peasants" who are armed with scythes, staves, a spiked club, an axe, "some hoes sharpened into cruel points" and only one piece of rusty mail. All in all, the vast majority of sparrows have poor quality weaponry and armor. Most of them wield farm implements. Only a few have the mail, plate, swords or spears that one might expect Northern soldiers to have, and even that is rusted, dented, and incomplete.

The Sparrows and Duskendale

The sparrows believe that it is "time for all anointed knights to forsake their worldly masters and defend our Holy Faith" in KL. Brienne and her companions are knights, so the sparrows ask them to come along to KL. It is after Brienne and company adamantly refuse to go to KL with them that the sparrows consider them to be "false knights" and therefore worthy of being spat upon and physically intimidated. The sparrows are pissed that Brienne and her companions are going to Duskendale, not because they are going to Duskendale per se, but simply because they are *not* accompanying the sparrows to KL. The sparrows' behavior actually doesn't make any sense if they are secretly Northmen. Yes, the Northmen lost an important battle at Duskendale, but what does that have to do with Brienne and her companions? It's not like they are asking the sparrows to accompany them to Duskendale, the site of their ignominious loss. And there's nothing "false" about a knight simply because that knight happens to travel to a location where a battle occurred, especially considering that neither Brienne nor her companions were sworn to any of the lords who fought there at the time. As such, how can the Northmen sparrows expect Brienne and her companions to take their "false knight" accusation as an insult, when the Northmen sparrows' hostility towards Duskendale has nothing to do with them? Furthermore, if the sparrows are secretly Northmen, and they know Brienne doesn't know this, then how can they reasonably expect her and her companions to respect any feelings about Duskendale they may have? Do the Northmen sparrows also hate the inhabitants of Duskendale simply because they live at the location of the North's humiliating loss? If the sparrows are Northmen, then this is pointless pettiness from them.

Ser Theodan the True

This is perhaps the single biggest piece of evidence in favor of the theory. Apparently, Theodan Wells is indeed a knight from the North who has been put in a position of authority by the High Sparrow. This is unusual, because knighthood is an Andal custom that people in the First Men-dominated North generally don't follow. That said, it's not unheard of; we know that Jorah is a knight. But there's still not enough information about either the Warrior's Sons or House Wells to make any firm conclusions. We know nothing else about House Wells, though given Theodan's line of work, it could be one of the few Northern houses who follow the Seven, like the Manderlys. Theodan and Lancel are the only two named members of the Warrior's Sons, so we don't really know enough about its membership to make any more judgements about them. Theodan could well be a Northern sleeper agent, or he could simply be a pious knight who is willing to defend his Faith and has no loyalty to any earthly House anymore.

The Sparrow and the Reeds

There are no parallels between the Reed children's behavior and that of the High Sparrow unless you selectively quote the text. Though Meera and the High Sparrow have both taken prisoners who have attempted to escape and thus made their situation worse, they are hardly the only ones to do so. Theon and Jaime were both prisoners who attempted to escape their captors and thus made their captivity more unbearable. Are Robb and Ramsay, who held them captive, therefore secret crannogmen too? The High Sparrow and the Reed kids may support the idea of helping the weak and helpless, but so do Dany, Stannis, and the Brotherhood without Banners. Are they all secretly crannogmen because of this? Jojen and the High Sparrow are also not the only obstinate, solemn people that royalty want to slap. Arya threatens to punch the solemn Ned Dayne because she thinks he is lying about sharing a wet nurse with Jon. Is Ned Dayne a crannogman too? Nor are the High Sparrow and Jojen the only people who can order other people around despite their small size. Tyrion orders plenty of bigger people around despite being a dwarf, as does Dany; are they therefore a secret crannogmen?

Colors, Turtles, Weirwoods, and Other Miscellaneous Words

There is no reason to believe that any of these things have some kind of deeper, hidden meaning. For instance, as far as the mud/moss thing is concerned, all it means is that the High Sparrow has brown eyes while Jojen has green eyes. If the mud-colored eyes of the High Sparrow are "evidence" that he is a crannogman, then why can't we assume that any other character who is stained with mud at some point in the series, like Ned, Catelyn, or Arya is also a secret crannogman? Is Quentyn Martell a crannogman because Barristan derisively describes him as "mud"? Similarly, Cersei's comparing the High Sparrow to a greengrocer is meant to insult him for haggling with her. If the mere use of the word "green" in this exchange means that he is a crannogman, then why can't Cersei also be considered a crannogman because she has green eyes? The reference to a splash of icy water is meant to illustrate how shocked Cersei is that the High Sparrow is refusing her request. It has nothing to do with the North. The word "icy" is used to refer to all sorts of random non-Northern things, like the eyes of the Knight of Ninestars, and even Cersei's own stare when she meets the High Sparrow for the first time. Should we assume that she is also secretly from the North because of this?

There is no evidence of "weirwoods intermingling with the Faith" anywhere in the books. If we are to assume that the fact that the High Sparrow "only listens to the gods" is somehow connected to Howland's saying a prayer to the Old Gods before going to the Isle of Faces, then why can't we connect the High Sparrow to any character who prays at any other point in the series, like Ned, Catelyn, Sansa, etc? Indeed, there is a gulf of difference between merely praying to the gods, as Howland did, and listening solely to their supposed will, as the High Sparrow does. There is no connection between the faces of the Seven carved into the High Sparrow's room, and those of the weirwoods. Cersei and Varamyr may be scared by their appearance, but that only means that they both fear the power of their respective deities, not that there is some kind of connection between the two faiths, aside from the fact that their religious iconography can sometimes be disturbing or even frightening to behold. Additionally, the weirwood staff topped by the crystal orb is held, not by the High Sparrow as one might expect if he was a believer in the Old Gods in disguise, but by his predecessor.

There is no connection between the turtle Tyrion sees on the Rhoyne and Jon. The turtle may have a green and brown shell with moss and mollusks on it, but so what? This is exactly what we would expect to see on the body of an animal that spends most of its life in a river. Again, if the reference to green moss and brown mud is to be interpreted as a reference to Howland Reed, then why can't literally any of the random references to mud and moss in various descriptions of various locations seen by various characters throughout the books be seen as a connection to Howland Reed? By this logic, plenty of the POV characters could be connected to Howland Reed because the words "moss", "mud", "green" and "brown" appear at some random point in some paragraph in some POV chapter or another.

Furthermore, if the turtle, which is the Old Man of the River, is meant to represent Howland Reed, who was present at the birth of "King Jon" then we would expect there to have been "Gods and wonders" present at his birth as well, if Tyrion is to be believed. Yet, Ned's description of the events at the Tower of Joy do not suggest that there were any gods or wonders present. There was, however a comet in the sky the day that Aegon was born, and not coincidentally, he is the king that Tyrion is referring to, not Jon. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that the blonde girl riding Raff the Sweetling who falls into some reeds as wolves howl nearby is somehow a reference to Cersei and UnGregor losing to Howland and the North. There are plenty of references to blondes, rivers, reeds, and wolves throughout throughout the series that have no hidden meanings, and there's no reason to believe that this line is any different. Should we assume that Lancel Lannister is a secret crannogman because Cersei refers to him as a "weak reed"? Or how about Septon Utt, who describes himself in a similar manner when referring to his pedophilia? Is he a secret crannogman too?

Howland's Motive and Methods

Howland has no reason to believe that it is necessary for Jon to be put on the Iron Throne, and plenty of reasons to believe otherwise. If Howland knows the truth about Jon's parentage, then he also knows that Ned *did not* want Jon to become King or indeed have anything at all to do with Southern politics, where his true heritage might become known and trigger the wrath of the new Baratheon monarchy. He knows that Ned was willing to put strain on his marriage and sully his own reputation to uphold this story. He also knows that Ned swore to serve Robert and his heirs, and may even know that Ned died to put Stannis, not Jon on the throne. If he knows about Robb's will, then he knows that Robb wanted Jon as heir to an independent Northern kingdom, *not* the Iron Throne. If he knows anything about Jon, he knows that Jon voluntarily joined the NW, and has risen to become LC, which would suggest a significant lack of interest in thrones. It's also important to remember that unlike Aemon, who swore his maester's vows by the Seven, and thus could be released from them by the High Septon, Jon swore his vows by the Old Gods, so Howland could not release Jon from them, even disguised as the High Sparrow. And that's assuming that Jon would want to wriggle out of his vows, which he doesn't. In short, Howland may be seeking vengeance for the Starks, but he has no reason to believe that any of them would approve of his goal of crowning Jon, even Jon.

We have little reason to believe that any of them would approve of his methods either. We are supposed to believe that Howland wants to break Cersei's power and expose Tommen's true parentage to dethrone him and make way for Jon as punishment for Cersei's complicity in the Starks' suffering, but that's *not* what Ned wanted. He wanted Cersei and her children to escape punishment. Indeed, Howland's motive for punishing Cersei to begin with is rather fuzzy, and is indicative of bizarrely misplaced priorities. How complicit was Cersei in the Starks' problems? She had Ned arrested, yes, but she did not want him executed and actually tried to prevent it. It was Joffrey who had Ned executed. It was Tywin who arranged the Red Wedding, and Walder Frey and Roose Bolton who carried it out. Yet for some reason, Howland does nothing while these far more guilty parties roam free. Joffrey and Tywin died thanks to forces at play that had nothing to do with Howland. Furthermore, instead of going after Walder Frey or Roose Bolton, Howland seems intent on punishing the least guilty party, Cersei, whose role in the Starks' fall was indirect, instead of Joffrey, Tywin, Walder, or Roose, whose roles were much more direct. Indeed, if Robb wanted vengeance against anybody, I'm pretty sure he'd want Howland to go after the treacherous lord who intentionally led his army into a trap at Duskendale, personally stabbed him in the heart, is squatting in his house, and is on the verge of cementing his control over his kingdom, using his sister, no less, instead of putting Jon on a throne that no Stark has ever been interested in. The North is in turmoil, so Howland has much better things to do than dicking around in the South playing septon. And let's not forget that while Howland was painstakingly attempting to secure a crown for Jon that he doesn't even know Jon wants, and knows that none of the Starks wanted Jon to have, Jon was assassinated. Oops! Maybe Howland might have been able to prevent that if he'd used some of those scruffy sparrows to help Jon or fight Roose Bolton, or do something of immediate value to the North instead of carrying out a pointless mummer's farce in KL, which has no bearing on the fate of the North. If Howland Reed is masquerading as the High Sparrow, it shows that he is willing to ignore both the will of the family he serves and the mess the North is currently in, showing that he clearly has his priorities horribly mixed up.

Howland's "brilliant" plan

Howland's plan is not brilliant, it is horrendously shortsighted and needlessly roundabout. If Howland Reed wants to punish the Lannisters, destabilize their government, and pave the way for Jon's ascension, he is doing an awful job. He started out in an excellent position. He had two very influential forms of leverage over Cersei: the Faith's blessing, and the Crown's debt to the Faith. Cersei can only solve one of these problems: either she can pay the debt to get the blessing and thus deprive the Crown of money to build a new navy, or she can ignore the debt and build a new navy, but deprive Tommen of the religious legitimacy that the Faith's blessing represents. If Howland wants to weaken Tommen by depriving him of religious legitimacy so that he can eventually bless Jon, all he has to do is refuse to back down, and insist that he won't bless Tommen unless the Crown's debt to the Faith is paid, knowing that Cersei would never do it. However, Howland just hands over both bargaining chips for a reward of dubious value; he agrees to bless Tommen and forgive the Crown's debts to the Faith in exchange for reviving the Faith Militant. Now that Howland has significantly strengthened Tommen by effectively giving him religious legitimacy and a new navy, one would expect that what he got in exchange was even more powerful than what he gave up. We are supposed to believe that Howland will use the FM to dethrone Tommen and crown Jon. However, this is clearly impossible.

By blessing Tommen, and not Jon, Howland is ensuring that not only the smallfolk, but the new FM itself will be backing Tommen. So how can Howland demand that the FM suddenly go and attempt to dethrone the very king that he just blessed and who allowed the reformation of the FM in the first place? This is especially important considering that Jon, Howland's supposed new candidate for king is, at best, Rhaegar's bastard, and at worst, the product of Rhaegar's polygamous union. The Faith looks down upon both bastards and polygamy, so one wonders whether the zealous FM would fight Tommen and back Jon merely because the High Septon suddenly demanded it. Far from hurting Tommen, this sudden shift just makes the High Septon look like a flip flopper violating the tenets of the Faith, and would make men as zealously devout as those in the FM question whether the High Septon really is the embodiment of the Seven on earth, or just a fraud. It's also important to note that Howland is a follower of the Old Gods, and the FM has a reputation for fanaticism against all enemies of the Faith. By reviving the FM, Howland has potentially put his actual religion in danger. While he is High Septon, he may be able to prevent them from attacking the "tree worshipers" of the North, but what happens after he is dead? Howland has apparently not considered the the long term consequences of armed religious zealots running around.

One might say that Howland did a good job of destabilizing Tommen's government by imprisoning Cersei. But even this was actually beneficial for Tommen's rule. With Cersei imprisoned, Kevan became regent, and would have repaired the relationship with the Faith and the Tyrells. This is why Varys had to assassinate him, and Howland had nothing to do with that. Even if Cersei loses her trial, thus questioning Tommen's legitimacy and allowing Howland to say he was born of incest, Howland can hardly use this as justification to back Jon, who was also conceived in a manner unacceptable to the Faith. All in all, Howland has done more to strengthen Tommen's government than to hurt it, and that too at the expense of the North and Jon, which suggests that he is comically incompetent.

There was no way that Howland could have anticipated that things would develop the way that they did, because these developments had much more to do with Cersei's negligence than his own active attempts to shape the situation to his liking. Assuming he heard about the death of the High Septon and immediately set out from Greywater Watch intending to replace him, there's no way he could guarantee that everything would work out according to plan. He'd need to read enough from the Seven Pointed Star to be able to successfully impersonate a septon, then find a bunch of armed, zealous smallfolk willing to follow his lead, and reach King's Landing with his gang of sparrows just before the Most Devout concluded their election process so that he could storm the election chamber and force them to pick him at knifepoint, and that too, while making sure that the Goldcloaks did not stop him, and that the Crown accepted the election as valid. If anything went wrong, like if he was delayed en route and arrived at KL after the election had concluded, or if he was arrested/killed by the Goldcloaks, or if he simply wasn't charismatic enough to build a following,his entire plan would collapse. And again, even after doing the impossible and becoming High Sparrow, he simply gives away his leverage in exchange for permission to begin rebuilding an army of religious fanatics of little use to him and which is a great threat to his religion. Even if this is, for some reason, what he wanted, he could hardly have anticipated that Cersei would be stupid enough to grant it. Furthermore, despite having given up quite a lot for his army of zealots, he does absolutely nothing to hurt Cersei until she goes too far and sends him Osney Kettleblack, something he could not have anticipated. Why would he abandon his home and Jon and leave the North to the Boltons to engage in such a risky plan with no immediate reward, and then repeatedly botch his attempts to destabilize the Lannister regime after he had worked so hard to become High Septon?

Additionally, from a narrative standpoint, the High Sparrow makes much more sense if he is exactly who he says he is. He is representative of the common people's fury at the corruption of the religious authorities and the negligence of the secular authorities. Up until now the lords have taken smallfolk meekness for granted, but the High Sparrow rose because the smallfolk's patience finally snapped, making them willing to take matters into their own hands. This adds realistic depth and complexity to the Game of Thrones by showing that the lords' actions have serious consequences, and introduces the Faith as a player of the Game, all of which is undercut if the High Sparrow is not really a puritan but a charlatan. Furthermore, the role that the High Sparrow plays in Cersei's downfall is meant to show us how Cersei opened up a Pandora's Box of trouble when she foolishly re-armed the Faith, and ended up getting entangled in the web of schemes and lies that she wove. Throughout Cersei's political career we have seen her repeatedly make bad decisions fueled by hubris and paranoia, so it is only to be expected that her own poor decision making comes back to bite her in the ass, as has happened to several other influential figures in King's Landing, like Jon Arryn, Ned, Robert, Tyrion, and Tywin. This is again undercut if Howland Reed always intended to bring her down.

[willofDorne]

snip

You did this on the last thread too. Please try to discuss one thing at a time or make your own thread.

[Antler's Fury]

You did this on the last thread too. Please try to discuss one thing at a time or make your own thread.

I am discussing one thing at a time. That's why I've separated my post into sections, much like the OP.

[Faceless Void]

I am discussing one thing at a time. That's why I've separated my post into sections, much like the OP.

Yea, one giant block of opinions at a time. When you're able to actually cite the text, like the OP, I'll give your post another look.

[Antler's Fury]

Yea, one giant block of opinions at a time. When you're able to actually cite the text, like the OP, I'll give your post another look.

I did cite the text. And my post does contain opinions, but so what? The entire OP is one giant malformed opinion.

[Faceless Void]

You can say it would be a nice touch if true, but it adds no credibility to the argument itself.

That has always been the stance I've taken. As such, if I accept that the she-bears are septas, the parallels between gaolers and captives makes sense to me. And given that you don't believe the she-bears are septas, it makes no sense to you.

It's a difference of opinion.

[Antler's Fury]

That has always been the stance I've taken. As such, if I accept that the she-bears are septas, so the parallels between gaolers and captives makes sense to me. And given that you don't believe the she-bears are septas, it makes no sense to you.

It's a difference of opinion.

The text tells us that the septas are way too old to be Maege's daughters.

[Faceless Void]

I did cite the text. And my post does contain opinions, but so what? The entire OP is one giant malformed opinion.

Wrong. You cited the OP (who cited the text) and then made your arguments (without citations to support your argument).

Like I said, until you can present your argument with some sort of textual support, I'm not bothering to read it. Sorry.

[Faceless Void]

The text tells us that the septas are way too old to be Maege's daughters.

Are you even reading what is being posted? No one is saying they're Maege's daughters. Stop trying to confuse the theory.

[Antler's Fury]

Wrong. You cited the OP (who cited the text) and then made your arguments (without citations to support your argument).

No, I quoted the text. You'd know that if you actually read my post.

Are you even reading what is being posted? No one is saying they're Maege's daughters. Stop trying to confuse the theory.

The OP's "septas = she-bears" argument is based on the idea that the septas look like Mormont women. However, we know that the septas are way too old to be Maege's daugthers. Hence, the argument falls apart. We could say that the septas are warrior-women from Bear Island, but we have no reason to believe that they look like Mormont women.

[Faceless Void]

The OP's "septas = she-bears" argument is based on the idea that the septas look like Mormont women.

See, this is why no one takes your posts seriously, because you consistantly and continually misrepresent the facts.

The OP never says the septas are Mormont women. The OP explains that the septas are she-bears, and it draws from the descriptions we have of other she-bears. You're so caught up in asserting that they're Mormonts, you can't even realize this simple fact.

Unfortunately, judging by what I've read from the last couple threads, that isn't a point you're going to understand, so I'll just leave it at that. You have your opinion, I have mine.