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Stannis' credibility.


JonCon's Red Beard

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Lord Renly laughed. "We're fortunate my brother Stannis is not with us. Remember the time he proposed to outlaw brothels? The king asked him if perhaps he'd like to outlaw eating, shitting, and breathing while he was at it.

(aGoT, Eddard)

~

Slynt's neck was purpling. "Lies, all lies! A strong man makes enemies, Your Grace knows that, they whisper lies behind your back. Naught was ever proven, not a man came forward..."

"Two men who were prepared to come forward died suddenly on their rounds." Stannis narrowed his eyes. "Do not trifle with me, my lord. I saw the proof Jon Arryn laid before the small council. If I had been king you would have lost more than your office, I promise you, but Robert shrugged away your little lapses. 'They all steal,' I recall him saying. 'Better a thief we know than one we don't, the next man might be worse.' Lord Petyr's words in my brother's mouth, I'll warrant. Littlefinger had a nose for gold, and I'm certain he arranged matters so the crown profited as much from your corruption as you did yourself".

(aSoS, Samwell)

I dunno which of this events happened first, but, let's assume the one Stannis mentions happened first. There, according to Stannis, Jon HAD PROOF of Slynt being a corrupt man. Also, Jon Arryn was not Stannis. It was the only man who Robert actually would listen to. Yet, he didn't. And then, Later, Stannis proposes to outlaw brothels. Who owns many brothels in the city? Yes. Littlefinger. I guess Stannis was simply trying to get rid of the "source of corruption" in KL as Jon couldn't. But Robert laughs at this. Stannis doesn't know his brother, apparently.

If Stannis' wanting to outlaw brothels happened first, then I suppose he realised first what kind of man LF was. Robert laughs at him. And later, when Arryn offered proof of Slynt being corrupt, something apparently Stannis didn't have, Robert still ignores the problem and rather listens to LF. He then realised NOTHING would make Robert change his mind about making big changes in KL.

We're talking about a relatively minor event, yes. It's just the removal of an officer. There is no one important involved (neither Slynt nor Baelish have families backing them up or being angry) and two men known to be "rightful" were backing up the accusation. Yet, Robert shrugged it away.

And then, Jon dies.

How do we expect Stannis to tell Robert about the incest when this two events proved that he wouldn't take Stannis seriously nor that he would listen to Jon? Yes, this is more serious than just get a man fired, but Stannis had no proof. Jon had proof of a bad officer and yet, Robert didn't believe it. And in this case, he would be talking about accusing the Lannisters with nothing or no one to back him up. And the Lannisters, like LF, were in a way providers of something Robert needed: money.

Stannis' assumption of Robert not believing him are very justified. He would rather believe LF, the Lannisters, and get him killed for being a nag.

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Telling Robert was his duty though, and we know Robert wants to get rid of the Lannisters.



Robert simply didn't care about Slynt and Littlefinger, they are not even an afterthought. He constantly complains about the Lannisters though, he has reason to care about what Stannis would have to say.


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Telling Robert was his duty though, and we know Robert wants to get rid of the Lannisters.

Robert simply didn't care about Slynt and Littlefinger, they are not even an afterthought. He constantly complains about the Lannisters though, he has reason to care about what Stannis would have to say.

But we also know that Robert likes to turn a blind eye to things he doesn't want to see. Such information could make him a laughing stock to the entire realm, being cuckolded like that.

I'm not saying Robert wouldn't believe him, but I don't think Stannis wanted to take the risk, since it would surely put him and his brother in immediate danger.

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Telling Robert was his duty though, and we know Robert wants to get rid of the Lannisters.

Robert simply didn't care about Slynt and Littlefinger, they are not even an afterthought. He constantly complains about the Lannisters though, he has reason to care about what Stannis would have to say.

1. Robert hates Stannis. Maybe even more than e hates Cersei.

2. Stannis would have told Robert, but he had to gather his forces before he could otherwise the Lannisters, LF, or Varys would have killed him.

To the OP: :agree:

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He still should have told him, even if he thought Robert might not believe it. If he does and Robert dimisses him then he would have one his best and as far as I'm concerned he can then wash his hands of the situation. And that's the worst case scenario as I don't believe he would have been in any actual danger from Robert if not believed. Robert would not kill his brother over this, unless he's foolish enough to make the accusation in public. The Lannisters are a danger one way or another.

The difference with Slynt is that Robert DOES believe the evidence about Slynt's corruption - he just does not care.

The move against LF is very interesting, and it's certainly possible. But its also a classic example of Stannis being Stannis. He's a bodies, pyres kind of guy and not much for subtle political manoeuvring. The fact that Robert is present might indicate the earlier years of his reign.

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I always assumed that Stannis said that because he finds prostitution morally reprehensible. There would have been easier ways to get rid of Baelish.

Yeah, he outlawed prostitution on Dragonstone. It had nothing to do with LF; he just wanted everyone to be as sexless as he is.

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1. Robert hates Stannis. Maybe even more than e hates Cersei.

2. Stannis would have told Robert, but he had to gather his forces before he could otherwise the Lannisters, LF, or Varys would have killed him.

To the OP: :agree:

Robert's 'hate' is highly exaggerated IMHO and so are it's consequences - he allegedly hates Stannis (and Renly) so much he gives them positions on his Small Council and each of them a significant castle. He hates Cersei and yet the worst he does is dismiss her schemes and slap her when she oversteps. He makes no real moves against her or any effort to curb her influence. He's more likely to laugh Stannis out of the room than to go into a murderous rage and kill him, but arguably in Stannis's eyes that's worse.

He did gather his forces yet he still did nothing after that. The Lannisters have no way of stopping him from speaking to Robert privately and if they kill him afterwards that just proves their guilt. Either way, they consider him their enemy anyway so a confrontation is only a question of time. LF thrives on chaos and exposing the incest is pretty much bound to achieve that, while Varys's actions would very much depend on the timing and how close his own plans are to fruition. It's also notable that Varys only started openly assassinating people when all his pawns were in place and arguably only after his preferred claimant has started his campaign. Why assume he would directly move against Stannis when he has so many alternate courses of action?

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1. Robert hates Stannis. Maybe even more than e hates Cersei.

2. Stannis would have told Robert, but he had to gather his forces before he could otherwise the Lannisters, LF, or Varys would have killed him.

How many swords do you need to tie a piece of parchment to a raven's leg? The regular Dragonstone garrison should provide sufficient protection for that. The really scary part would be on Pylos or Cressen anyway, they would be the ones to approach the cages.

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How many swords do you need to tie a piece of parchment to a raven's leg? The regular Dragonstone garrison should provide sufficient protection for that. The really scary part would be on Pylos or Cressen anyway, they would be the ones to approach the cages.

How many swords do you need to defeat the Lannisters? At least thousands.
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How many swords do you need to defeat the Lannisters? At least thousands.

If your game plan is to wait until your brother dies and then fight for the crown for yourself. I always found it a little low. Euron at least had the integrity to pay for his brother's assassination, instead of waiting until someone did that for him for free.

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If your game plan is to wait until your brother dies and then fight for the crown for yourself. I always found it a little low. Euron at least had the integrity to pay for his brother's assassination, instead of waiting until someone did that for him for free.

What? Stannis needed soldiers to ensure that he wouldn't be assassinated right after Robert laughs at him for being right.

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It's impossible to guess who Robert would have believed if Stannis had come forward with his incest accusations since he had reason to dismiss them (it would have been embarrassing to admit to himself and the realm that he had been cuckolded for fifteen years) and to believe them (it gives him the chance to get out of an hateful marriage and get rid of children he doesn't care for).


But the more important point IMO is that as long as Robert was still alive that was the only time Stannis even had a small chance to be believed. Because he doesn't have proof. Even Jon Arryn didn't have proof, the ancestry book is flimsy proof at best.


And their accusations sound crazy: twincest between the Queen and her brother who is a sworn KG. Those are shocking allegations against two people of very noble birth.


And what Stannis/JonArryn are basically going on is the hair colour of Robert's trueborn children vs his bastards. Quite frankly it is entirely possible in the real world that all three children come after their mother in looks instead of their father no matter what happened in past generations. And in Westeros they actually have the exact same situation in the Stark family with Robb, Sansa, Bran and Rickon having the Tully look and only Arya looking like Ned and his 'bastard son' Jon. Is this now proof that Edmure is the true father of 4 of Ned's kids?



The only way the accusations would have been believed is if King Robert himself said he believes them to be true or if Cersei and Jaime publicly admit it (which they wont since it would mean death for them and their kids).


Stannis coming out with his incest claims after Robert's death only sounds self-serving since Robert not having any trueborn children conveniently makes him the next in line for the throne.


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